We visited Raleigh at the end of November, which was in the midst of a soggy stretch that, frankly, is still ongoing. It’s been such a warm autumn, and the past few winters were so mild, it’s kind of bracing to see such a chill to the air as far south as the Carolinas. But we did indeed see some temperatures that were near freezing and didn’t even get out of the 40s for the first day of December. That particular day was colder than anyone had in mind, and certainly colder than anyone in Raleigh appreciated. If you want a cold forecast, Weatherbug is your place to be, and they secured the win on this occasion. Actuals: November 30th, .22″ of rain, High 52, Low 35 December 1st, High 45, Low 35
9:04PM: Perhaps you have seen the headlines, but south Asia is recovering from a significant flooding event that afflicted parts of at least 5 countries. It started with a slow moving typhoon in the Molucca Strait, and after it moved out of the region, there was a succession of other rain storms that stretched from Sri Lanka to the Philippines. The rain led to flash flooding, and the deaths of over 2000 people across the region. The constant drum beat of news in the US has kept this disaster out of the headlines, but so too has the slow burn of this catastrophe. I encourage you to spend some time reading up on this storm, and sparing a thought for the souls that couldn’t escape.
11:43PM: I don’t know if you caught much NFL action today, but there were some wet and marshy fields out there, and plenty of snowy turf as well. The snow and rain is really tapering off in the New England area, but rain looks like a good bet for Georgia tomorrow.
9:45PM: Lake effect snow is possible on either side of the Great Lakes, we just here about it more frequently to the east of the lakes, because that is the the prevailing direction of air flow in the Northern Hemisphere. Every once in a while, you get a northeasterly wind off of Lake Superior, and you suddenly have heavy lake effect in the Minnesota Arrowhead. The area is bound by a little bit of terrain, so the snow isn’t even showing on radar, and it is seeing some orographic forcing as well. This could be a pretty good dumping.
11:21PM The next system to batter the East Coast is, well, starting to batter! Look at the coverage on this rain!
Hello, forecast friends. We are taking our forecast express to the upper Mississippi Valley for our first forecast in December.
At 1053AM, CT LaCrosse was reporting a temperature of 22 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a sharp trough angled to the southwest that divided the country in half. The ferocity of the trough was leading to overcast through the region, and a little bit of light snow throughout the north central US, however the severe angle it is taking towards the Four Corners is preventing the feature from bringing much moisture to the region. There will probably be a few flakes around LaCrosse this afternoon, but the real story is the cold high pressure behind the boundary. The tilt of the trough aloft will make it disinclined to move off its spot. The high pressure at the surface, therefore, will be similarly rooted to its location. With the ridge holding firm, the cold air associated with it will remain in place as well. Unfortunately, this time of year, sunshine can only do so much, and despite mostly sunny skies, it will remain fairly chilly through the middle of the week. Tomorrow – Some early flakes, then dropping temperatures, High 28, Low 3 Thursday – Clear and cold, High 15, Low -4
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 29, Low 7 Thursday -Mostly sunny skies. High 16, Low -3
AW: Tomorrow – A morning flurry; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly, High28, Low 1 Thursday – A morning flurry; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly, High 13, Low -12
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 26, Low 4 Thursday – Sunny, High 13, Low -6
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of flurries in the morning then mostly sunny in the afternoon High 28, Low 9 Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 13, Low 4
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light snow showers, High 27, Low 4 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 13, Low -6
CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 27, Low 4 Thursday – Sunny, High 15, Low -1
Here is a look at the afternoon satellite picture, with a few clouds smothering Wisconsin, thanks to that strong upper level jet. And yes, Accuweather is going -12 on Thursday, while Weatherbug is going 4 above. Attribute this to the GFS, which is saying -20 (!) on Thursday morning. Yikes!
12:03AM I know this is absolutely at the top of everyone’s mind, but the precipitation has not reached Raleigh before midnight, and I am just now realizing that it hasn’t reached there by 1AM, either. Raleigh is in the eastern time zone. Maybe I should go to bed?
10:10PM The troublemaking system at the end of the holiday weekend is still causing problems. There are winter storm warnings across New England, right up to the coast in New Hampshire and Maine. No waiting around for winter this year.
5:39PM: We await the next system in North Carolina. This one is a very interesting storm, as it is working into a region where the air is already cool, and bringing even colder air further south. It’s only 41 in Raleigh right now. It’s 32 in Little Rock, where sleet is falling at this hour. Is anyone ready?
Holiday travel is at its peak this week, and especially tomorrow. We are taking to North Carolina for our forecast for this busy day.
At 1051PM, ET, Raleigh was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 36 degrees. The clouds may save the area from an especially chilly night, and they are patchy, with most reporting areas in the region reporting clear skies. An occluded front in the Plains attaches to a secondary low over eastern Tennessee. Temperatures in Georgia and South Carolina are about 20 degrees warmer than they are in North Carolina, indicating the warm front. This is in active, however the cold and occluded fronts are well defined on radar, from the Upper Ohio Valley to northern Alabama and on to east Texas, where there is some convective activity. The parent low is moving northeastward, and the secondary low doesn’t have a lot of vorticity support to carry on, and the southern cold frontal portion of the boundary will wither, even as a cold surface high pressure center slides from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas. Expect a chilly night Sunday after a few showers in the evening. Aloft, the pattern features a sharp trough moving out of the Rockies into the Plains. The ridge sweeping into the Carolinas overnight Sunday to Monday will kick out quickly. Rain is returning with more fervor on Tuesday, but for our purposes, that should only mean increasing clouds on Monday night. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a shot of rain in the afternoon. High 53, Low 29 Monday – Sunny, with clouds increasing after sundown, High 49, Low 31
TWC – Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional light rain in the afternoon. High 55, Low 30 Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 49, Low 35
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a couple of showers in the afternoon High 56. Low 33 Monday – Cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon High 51, Low 36
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly between 2pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 30 Monday – Mostly sunny (early rain) High 50, Low 35
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the morning then a chance of rain in the afternoon High 54, Low 33 Monday – Mostly sunny. High 47, Low 38
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 54, Low 32 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 58, Low 30 Monday – Sunny, High 49, Low 33
It’s a busy stretch, especially in the Carolinas. You can keep an eye on things in Raleigh on WRAL’s live radar stream.
Ahead of the Thanksgiving travel season, a storm system passed through the American southeast before petering out in the mid-Atlantic. There were some outlets that thought that it could lead to a bit of a severe weather outbreak around our forecast destination of Birmingham last Friday and Saturday, but fortunately, that didn’t come to pass. The whole feature was a bit messier than it could have been, and left some light showers in the region on Saturday as well as Friday, and didn’t bring the cold pool behind it that was in the forecast for some. It hit 80 last Saturday! Clime came away with the top forecast, thanks to a being one of the warmer forecasts on Saturday. Actuals: Friday . 06″ of rain, High 71, Low 57 Saturday .03″ of rain, High 80, Low 55
10:32PM: It’s snowing everywhere in the northern US, generally east of the Rockies. There is more persistent snow in the Plains from South Dakota to Iowa, but also downwind of the Great Lakes. In New England, the amount of snow is limited, but whatever comes is coming with very blustery wind. Drive home safely!
