Monroe, Louisiana to Reno, Nevada

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We’re heading west over the Christmas break. On the plus side, we have work off for the next several days, so we don’t have to worry about that. On the negative end, the drive is over the holidays, which means everyone has time off. Good luck finding help at the convenience store if you need it. The drive will last a little more than 3 1/2 days, covering 1,948 miles at a pace of 67mph. That means the three long days of driving will cover 537 miles. I’m excited to see where we end up on Christmas!

DAY ONE (Wednesday )

Monroe, Louisiana

The Gulf is definitely open, at least on the western side. Fortunately, there isn’t a lot to trigger this instability for Christmas Eve. There may be some lingering clouds throughout the day, and we aren’t going to find a firm dry line, so it’s hard to say when the clouds will end, but they should eventually. We will stop for the day in Newlin, in west Texas. Santa, come to Newlin!

DAY TWO (Thursday/Christmas)
It will be a bright and beautiful morning on Christmas as we arise in Newlin. Will we receive gifts? That depends on your Naughty or Nice list status, but we should treasure the good weather we will see for the remainder of the Texas Panhandle and throughout New Mexico. Clouds my begin to pop up as we hit some terrain west of Albuqueque, but precipitation will remain closer to the Four Corners. Our drive will pass into Arizona on Christmas day, but only just. We’ll spend the night in Lupton, preparing for a much rougher day on Friday.

DAY THREE (Friday)
I know it sounds crazy to say, but in the higher terrain near Flagstaff, don’t be surprised to see some snow. It should stay away from the interstate, and I suspect the drive in Arizona, at least, will remain dry. We will take US-95 from Kingman, which means we will cross by the Hoover Dam before we reach Las Vegas. Unfortunately, the Vegas portion of the matter may also feature some isolated showers. It will be an improvement for Sin City, which may see some thunderstorms and heavy rain on Christmas Day, so be careful if the city is recovering from the unusual weather. We will continue northwest to Beatty, which will also be unusually damp.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
The center of low pressure, the main one at the base of the trough will move ashore on Boxing Day and have a tough time maintaining itself when it arrives inland. It’s going to completely dissipate at the surface by Saturday. This means that whatever rain fell over the Holiday week on 95 will be dried and gone for the conclusion of our trip through Nevada. The only problem will be finding a place to stop to use the restroom!

Reno, Nevada

Reno, Nevada

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Holidays, everyone! This forecast for Reno will take us across Christmases Eve and Day. Christmas in Reno, sounds like it should be airing on Hallmark Channel.

At 1055AM, PT, Reno was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies and a brisk south wind. This is in response to a strong trough along the West Coast. A center of circulation lies off the California shore, with southerly flow rushing through the Golden State. The Sierras are beset by heavy snow, and are also keeping Reno clear for now. Most of the region is covered by clouds, however there is a donut hole over western Nevada.
The low itself will be moving northeast before arriving on the coast on the Oregon coast. The robustness of this feature and the paired advance of the jet structure will allow for a fully realized cold front to be dragged along with it. Expect some substantial rainfall, particularly for Reno, on Christmas Eve. The surface feature and leading edge of the jet will continue east of the region by Christmas. The base of the trough will still foster cyclonicity in the Pacific, which will mean more southerly flow in the west. While Reno will see less precipitation for Christmas, the Sierras will not, and travel into California from Reno will remain treacherous.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, High 43, Low 37
Christmas – Partly cloudy, with some passing showers, High 37, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Periods of rain early High 46, low 39
Christmas – Rain showers, with winds diminishing later in the day. High 44, Low 38

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a bit of rain; breezy in the afternoon Hgh 46, Low 39
Christmas – Mostly cloudy, becoming windier and chilly with a couple of showers High 44, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. Snow level 6700 feet lowering to 6100 feet High 50, Low 40
Christmas – Rain. Snow level 5700 feet High 46, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Rain and snow. Snow level lowering to 6500 feet. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. High 46, Low 39
Christmas – Snow and rain. Snow level 5500 to 6000 feet.  High 43, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain, High 49, Low 39
Christmas – Cloudy with rain, High 46, Low 35

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers High 51, Low 41
Christmas – Rain showers High 47, Low 39

Nevadans aren’t often beset with soggy days, so getting it on Christmas is particularly bad luck. they have a pretty nice window of sunshine right now, however!

Not quite Hot, but not as cold.

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The headlines have all switched as we look ahead to Christmas. A lot of the country is going to see temperatures that are much warmer than normal, which is an about face after a particularly brisk beginning to the month. Our forecast in Hot Springs called for temperatures that were below freezing on Sunday and Monday morning. Fortunately, with the clear skies in the afternoon, temperatures were able to bounce back, and highs were warmer than the forecasts called for, even if they weren’t “warm” per se. Clime came away with the top forecast.
Actuals: Last Sunday, High 42, Low 22
Last Monday, High 47, Low 20

Grade: B-D

November Forecaster of the Month

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I think we have all been here long enough to see what outlets we expect to rate near the top of the heap in most months, and which are going to be a bit further down in the pecking order. The Weather Channel, the Weather Service and Accuweather (along with Victoria-Weather sometimes) are typically near the top, so it is a real underdog story when another outlet grabs the title. This is one of those months. Weatherbug was the top forecaster of the month, despite having had the toughest go of it for the first 10 months of the year.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 9.41
National Weather Service 9.41
Accuweather 7.83
Clime 5.75
Victoria-Weather 5.66
Weatherbug 4.5
WeatherNation 4.41

Failure to launch

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It was a chilly weekend last weekend, particularly Sunday, in north Texas. We had a forecast for Sherman, and we knew that it was going to cool down, but clearly, we weren’t fully appreciative of how cold it was going to get. Accuweather had the top forecast for the weekend, and even they were 10 degrees too warm on the Sunday high of 37. Fortunately for them, that was the one really big issue they had, successfully navigating the rest of the forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 35
Sunday – High 37, Low 26

Grade: C-D

Hot Springs, Arkansas to Redding, California

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Let’s head west! Our drive is a little bit longer than the previous one, with this one coverinf three time zones, 4 days and 2,088 miles. We will be able to enjoy the luxuries of highway travel throughout much of the journey, which will afford a pace of 65.25mph, and 522 miles a day. Will we finally see some warm weather?

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Hot Springs, Arkansas

With high pressure beginning to drift out of hte central US, the cold air is alleviating. This, unfrotunately, also means that access to the Gulf is opening again, and some surface moisture is expected to get into the western parts of Arkansas, particularly the valleys, in the morning. This may manifest as a bit of light rain between Hot Springs and the Oklahoma border, but more likely, it will be seen as fog and low clouds. Low pressure is emerging in the northern Plains by tomorrow, and a cold front is going to emerge along our route. No concerns for developing showers or storms, but behind it, there will be a brisk northwest wind. Clear skies are expected after Henryetta, and winds should start to taper off around El Reno. The day will end in Groom, Texas, which is just east of Amarillo.

DAY TWO (Friday)
Another wave is going to ripple through the Rockies into the High Plains. What will this mean for us? Not much, save for more blustery winds between Amarillo and Santa Rosa, New Mexico. We will enjoy a bit more tranquil conditions though the high terrain of western New Mexico, and make it to the Painted Desert National Park in Arizona.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
The weather is really going ot be churning in the northwestern US, however there isn’t a whole lot to tlk about in the southwest. It won’t be hot in the desert, as we may be accustomed to thinking, which is good news, because our day will end at Edwards Air Force Base.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
It’s probably the best to take highway 99 north through California on a Sunday, right? Or is most of the traffic hanging out on 5? Or does anyone even drive in the Central Valley? Nevertheless, we will be doing it on Sunday, as another system moves into the Pacific Northwest. In the Valley, we will see a smattering of light rain, while the hills and mountains east of us will contend with some significant snow fall, once again. The rain for us will come into the picture around Kingsburg, and in points northward. Sad to say, it may be a bit drizzly in northern California by the time we arrive in Redding on Sunday afternoon.

Redding, California

Redding, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Northern California tonight, to a part of the state that can be just as hot as the southern part of the state, especially inland, like Redding is.

At 753PM, PT, Redding was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 46 degrees. There was a little bit of haze at the surface, as there appeared to be throughout the area. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska has banded a cold front moving into the west coast, with a few showers seen from Yreka to Eureka. As is often the case, the first attempt at translating through the area will be unsuccessful, however the strong jet will move inland, and low pressure will reconstitute north of Vancouver Island by tomorrow.
Rain will move into Redding in the afternoon, which will be heavy at times. Because of the terrain on the coast, the center of low pressure will appear to hop from north of Vancouver Island to the southern part of British Columbia. The phasing of the low is indicative of this system being particularly strong for the west coast. The trough is strong and short waved enough to continue moving eastward into the Prairies. Rain will continue in northern California through Wednesday morning, but will start to clear out through the afternoon. Unfortunately, there will likely be some low clouds and fog leftover as a parting gift, particularly after night fall.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain becoming heavier in the afternoon, High 50, Low 41
Wednesday – A bit more sun in the afternoon, but rain early, High 56, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 47, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (early rain). High 52, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cool with a little rain High 51, Low 44
Wednesday – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 58, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 8am. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am High 55, Low 46
Wednesday – Showers. High 58, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Widespread fog. . . Locally dense in the morning. High 46, Low 46
Wednesday – Rain showers. High 48, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 55, Low 46
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 58, Low 46

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 53, Low 37
Wednesday – Rain showers, High 52, Low 44

Oh my goodness, this forecast is haunted. I have reviewed the numbers, and there are no typos. Weatherbug has the same high as the low tomorrow. Clime really is 9 degrees colder than the what most others think. The rain timelines are all different. This verification is going to be something else. Here is the radar, with showers northwest of Redding.

Sherman, Texas to Hot Springs, Arkansas

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It’s a short trip today, but really, a four hour trip between a couple of towns that avoids much population anywhere along the way is pretty exciting. This means that we haven’t really been able to talk about a trip through places like Paris, Texas, or Broken Bow, Oklahoma or De Queen, Arkansas. not that the post will include them after this, but still! It’s a 239 mile journey that will last just shy of 4 1/2 hours, covering only 54.5. At that pace, maybe we will lament driving through Paris, Broken Bow and De Queen.

Sherman, Texas

If you have been following along here at Victoria-Weather, or if you have been outside east of the Rockies lately, you know that it is pretty chilly. A warm up is coming, however, as high pressure that has been keeping it so cold is shuffling eastward. This won’t disrupt the day at all, as it often can when one air mass leaves town. The tail of the surface high is sinking into hte northern Gulf, which will prevent moisture from infiltrating our route. It should be a fine day for driving, in about perfect conditions for keeping the windows rolled up, but without needing the heat or AC.

Hot Springs, Arkansas

Hot Springs, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are only two more shopping weekends before Christmas (including this one) so I recommend you get out there ASAP!

At 1153AM, CT, Hot Springs was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with overcast skies. A trough is sinking from the north, with a band of snow scooting through Iowa and Missouri, with a blob of clouds pressing south into Arkansas. The clouds are layered at the lower levels, and aren’t likely to scatter out through the day today.
Tomorrow will be a very cold day for western Arkansas as cold air continues to cycle into the area. Relief will be on the way during the work week, with a thermal ridge starting to build back in late on Monday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and cold, High 37, Low 23
Monday – A hair warmer in the afternoon, High 46, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Turning colder. High 34, Low 26
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. High 43, Low 20

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with plenty of sun High 38, Low 25
Monday – Not as cold with plenty of sun High 45, Low 20

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 26, Low 24
Monday – Sunny, High 41, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Much cooler High 34, Low 30
Monday – Sunny. Not as coo High 40, Low 20

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 31, Low 24
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 18

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 22
Monday – Sunny, High 45, Low 18

“Hot” Springs, am I right? There was a much greater diversity to the spread of forecast temperatures from model to model today for a clear sky forecast than what I like to see. The clouds are low enough that they aren’t really showing up on the satellite.

The first, not the worst

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

December came with a punch of cold air to the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the first subzero temperatures of the season arriving in La Crosse on the 4th. Fortunately, it wasn’t quite as chilly as the forecasts called for (except, ironically, Weatherbug). Unfortunately, it was a precursor to the vicious cold snap coming this weekend. Wind chills will easily eclipse -20 tomorrow morning. If you want to think warm thoughts, think about the warm fuzzy feeling The Weather Channel must have for nailing the forecast from back on the second. That should do it, right?
Actuals: December 3rd, .03″ of precipitation, as snow, High 30, Low 8
December 4th, High 15, Low -2

Grade: A-D