October Forecaster of the Month

We are only a week into November, which means that we are awarding the forecaster of the month sooner than usual lately, and also, with as long as this week took, it’s clear time has no meaning anymore. The forecasting was pretty ok this month, though it leaned heavily on model guidance because of a west coast bias. It was Accuweather who did the best work for the month.

OutletMonth wins
The Weather Channel1
Victoria-Weather1
WeatherNation1
Accuweather1
Weatherbug
National Weather Service
Forecast.io
Outletyear wins
The Weather Channel10.5
Victoria-Weather10.41
Weatherbug6.49
WeatherNation6.08
National Weather Service4.91
Accuweather4.75
Forecast.io3.83

Tropical Storm Eta is moving through all parts of the Caribbean

Hurricane Eta plowed into Central America after exploding from a depression to a Category 5 storm in an alarmingly short time frame. It hit Guatemala, Honduras and particularly Nicaragua with vicious winds, but the particularly brutal part of the storm were torrential rains that killed hundreds thanks to flash floods and mudslides in mountainous terrain. The topography of Central America makes the region a death trap during strong tropical storms.

Now, Eta, instead of expiring in the mountains, turned back to the east and is forecast to wind through the Caribbean, hitting a lot of highlights along the way. Part of the reason it is expected to be able to continue on this path, despite a pending bisection of Cuba tonight, and a graze of the Florida Keys in the early part of the week, is how good it continues to look on satellite.

It’s generated quite a bit of convection to it’s north, and because it isn’t as strong as it looked, it will probably continue to feature broad swaths of directionless convection over places like south Florida as it wiggles along the Gulf Coast.

It’s not going to be a major storm in Florida, but it will last a while and be quite a soaker.

Wet and wild in Wenatchee

Late October was alive with nasty weather, and the Pacific Northwest was not spared. Despite it’s position on the drier side of the Cascades, even Wenatchee saw a rain/snow mix on Friday the 23rd. This was well anticipated, but the clouds that suppressed temperatures on Friday were not as well foreseen and sunk a few forecasts. The outlets that had cooler highs also correctly called for snow, and snagged the best scores. At the top of the heap was WeatherNation.
Actuals: Thursday 10/22, High 50, Low 36
Friday – .06 inches of precipitation for rain/snow, High 36, Low 31

Grade: B-C

Champaign, Illinois to Hanford, California

Let’s do an Election Day forecast, shall we? In the parlance of politics, we’ll head from one blue state to another, but we’ll travel through some red states along the way. It will take 4 days, or about as long as it will take to count all the votes, to cover 2107 miles. The fourth day will be slightly shorter than the first three, with those first three days concluding after 544 miles of driving at around 68mph. Most cars can stream audio now, so maybe avoid the AM radio and just enjoy the open road for this trip.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Champaign, Illinois

As the jet has drifted back a bit to the north, things have started to warm up for the middle of the country, and our drive on Wednesday can likely be done with the windows down if the car gets too stuffy. There won’t be much weather to remark on, save for breezes that could gust to 15mph at times. Noting treacherous. We’ll arrive in suburban Tulsa for the night.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, though with a diminished chance of a prevailing wind. We will drive through central and western Oklahoma, still cleaning up after a calamitous ice storm, and pass through the Texas Panhandle into New Mexico under sunny skies. We will stop at the San Ignacio exit west of Santa Rosa and completely be out of touch with the rest of civilization.

DAY THREE (Friday)
As we approach California, we will do it through the desertified parts of the Southwest. New Mexico and Arizona will remain clear and dry, but a system moving into the West Coast will stir some winds inland. Watch for tumbleweeds in this part of the world. The drive will end at Silver Spring Road between Kingman and Seligman in Arizona.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
As is often the cast, the feature moving into the West Coast will lose a lot of structure as it gets into the mountains, but that doesn’t mean it will be completely obliterated. In fact, well defined fronts will still exist, including a cold front we will drive though in southern California. That’s not to say it will be particularly rainy, if at all, as the frontal passage will be between Barstow and Mojave, right in the heart of the desert. When we descend into the central Valley at Bakersfield, we’ll probably get into some soupy overcast with drizzle. Expect that right on down to Hanford. Strange, right? The only part of the trip with rain will be the part in California.

Hanford, California By Armona at en.wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17978087

Hanford, California

All right, everyone, let’s get back to work for the week, and start our November with an Election Day forecast in the Central Valley of California.

At 853PM, PT, Hanford was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies, calm winds and haze. The haze is expected to linger overnight. There is an air quality alert of the Central Valley, in part because of the inversion and stillness leading to the aforementioned haze.
Broadly, the western US is under a ridge, but a weak area of upper level troughing exists, centered over California. This is helping to keep temperatures a bit cooler than they would be otherwise, but there isn’t really an impetus for precipitation. The undercutting trough will shift to the east over the next couple of days, allowing a little bit of heat to return and the haze to become less likely by Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, haze in the morning High 81, Low 48
Tuesday – Clearer still, a bit warmer, High 84, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 46
Tuesday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds, High 83, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 84, Low 47
Tuesday – Sunshine and very warm; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 83, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 80, Low 49
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 49
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 47
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 49
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 47

I’m the only one calling for a warm up, but the margins are so slim, I don’t think anyone will notice. Here is the satellite, in which you can see a few wispy clouds.