The first two tropical features to impact the US this year, Hilary and Howard, were well handled. Tropical Depression 10, which is presently hanging out on the coast of the Yucatan, near Cancun and Cozumel, is expected to organize and move slowly to the northeast. The time spent over the Gulf will allow the storm to become a low end hurricane before it moves into Apallachee Bay in the middle of next week,
Much remains to be seen. Fortunately, this isn’t expected to be a major hurricane, but any tropical storm presents it’s own problems.
Update, Sunday 1230 AM – One important factor for TD10’s impact on the States is that it is not forecast to move off shore fully intact, which means it won’t reemerge after the initial landfall. Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes are still going to be a possibility into the Carolinas through the end of next week.
When I plugged this trip into Google Maps, it defaulted to buses and trains. If you don’t want to partake in a 5 day cross country journey, then I guess I can’t blame you. That’s what Google wants too. We’ll cover 2806 miles at a pace of 68.4mph, with an 8 hour daily goal of 547 miles. It’s a good old fashioned road trip, an we can make good time, but only if we leave now.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
Yuba City, California
It’s pretty wild to think about it, but our drive on Thursday will take us from Yuba City to Wendover, Utah, through the wasteland of northern Nevada, and the region is presently between two tropical storms. Hilary was swept north of the region last week, and now the remnants of Tropical Storm Howard are moving into the 4 Corners. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see some clouds on the eastern and southern horizon when we reach Wendover and the home of the Bonneville Raceway, but the drive will stay dry.
DAY TWO (Friday) Howard is going to get hung up in the Rockies and lose his self among the seasonal monsoon. Wyoming will be rainier than one might expect, and we’ll dodge a few showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, as we trek through Wyoming on I-80. I would expect the heaviest rain will be west of Laramie, but we won’t get much further than the home of the University of Laramie, stopping west of Cheyenne at exit 348 as our day concludes.
DAY THREE (Saturday) High pressure in Canada is going to start sinking south, squashing out any life that Howard had. This will mean any lingering moisture will spread west to east along a cold front that is going to mostly be stationary through Saturday. Rain will be most likely early in the day, but there will be a chance for clouds and some isolated showers throughout the day as we make it to Avoca, Iowa, which is East of Omaha. As is all of Iowa, but this is pretty close to Omaha.
DAY FOUR (Sunday) All good things on Sunday! We’re going to finally start encountering some populated locations, including Chicago, but we’ll do it on the weekend, and one with good weather conditions at that. We’ll see a lot of sun, maybe a little bit of smoke in the atmosphere from the Canadian wildfires, but other than that, hakuna matata. We’ll reach Howe, Indiana for our destination for the day.
DAY FIVE (Monday) By the time Monday rolls around, all weather eyes will likely be out to see, where Franklin will be spinning between Bermuda and the Carolinas. The tail of the cold front we have been talking about will be working to kick Franklin to the sea, but for our own selfish purposes, it will be allowing dry conditions to enter Ohio and Pennsylvania as were traverse those two states to get to New Jersey.
The intrigue right now is out west, where many are still contending with the issues brought out by a landfalling tropical storm over a desert. As is Victoria-Weather custom, we will end up forecasting on the other side of the country.
At 853AM, ET, Trenton was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 77 degrees. Fog was lifting in the valleys of eastern Pennsylvania, with clouds still lingering through the region, remnants of the moisture leading to the fog. High clouds indicated the jet running northwest to southeast through southern New England, with the moisture and heat in the Mid-Atlantic rising northeastward as a ridge builds from the Midwest. Because the jet is so strong, the burgeoning heat and humidity in the Plains will not be able to build northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Instead, as the jet begins to break down, expect a little bit more air mass mixing, with cooler temperatures aloft merging with the soupy air in the south, bringing an increase of clouds for Trenton with some cooler temps by Thursday. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 82, Low 60 Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 65
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 80, Low 60 Thursday – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 74, Low 64
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 81, Low 59 Thursday – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a couple of showers High 74, Low 65
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 58 Thursday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Cloudy, High 77, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 62 Thursday – Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers, High 73, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 58 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 77, Low 63
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 60 Thursday – Overcast, High 74, Low 63
The satellite image has a smattering of clouds, but the real question is how much rain is really going to come with the breakdown of our ridge. I think most of it will remain in higher terrain, but clearly, I am in the minority.
After a year without August storms, and for weeks talking about how quiet the North Atlantic was. we now have three named features in the Atlantic, including Tropical Storm Harold on the Texas Coast, Tropical Storm Franklin south of Hispaniola, and Post Tropical Storm Gert, which is already winding down.
Harold is projected to keep moving due west towards Arizona after landfalling around Padre Island later this morning The Southwest, of course, is already bouncing back from Hilary and likely to see well over their normal allotment of rainfall.
Franklin is moving north, which means rain and potential for flooding across Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Surely not areas that will withstand flash flooding well, but at least Franklin presently isn’t a particularly windy storm, nor will it linger over the island. He may become a hurricane over the north Atlantic, passing near Bermuda.
Gert isn’t necessarily done, but she will wobble around the northern Lesser Antilles for a few days. After that, it’s still a mystery.
These aren’t going to be storms for the record books or anything like that, but business is definitely picking up.
The SPC is great, and I don’t know how easily performed this would be, but I would like to be able to see the population centers by severe region somehow on this map. How do you know that Duluth or Rhinelander are included in the northern marginal risk, because it is hogged by Phoenix suburbs, Tucson and Gulf Coast towns?
The quibble is minor, but I’ve learned that the grasp of geography is not what it should be.
Hilary made landfall earlier today and is now spinning over southern California. There is a lot that makes this different than a tropical storm you would find in the Atlantic, landfalling on that side of the ocean. First is the fact that there is cold water off the Pacific Coast, and the storm eroded quickly before she hit the Baja. Second, there is a lot more terrain in this part of the world than there is in, say, Florida. This means poorer radar availability through the mountains but a more acute threat for flash flooding. Look at all those flood reports and green boxed flash flood warnings if you want proof.
We don’t have the threat for tornadoes like we would to the east, though, and the winds are lower, and there is no storm surge to note. Earthquakes, though…
1200AM update:
Hilary is pushing moisture all the way up to Sacramento, and then it is catching the upper level flow, and there is a connection that wraps to northern Minnesota.
When we put together our forecast for Syracuse a couple weeks back, I noted that I wasn’t buying into severe weather in the Syracuse area for the 7th and 8th. Truly, the severe weather did avoid Syracuse proper, though it was dicey in the Finger Lakes. Any good emergency response personnel will also tell you that flash flooding is severe weather too, and Syracuse got over three inches of rain during the two games of the forecast period, surely enough to cause significant problems around town. The Weather Channel was substantially better than the rest of this forecast, thanks in large part to a warm forecast on the 7th. Actuals: August 7th, 2.46″ of rain, High 87, Low 66 August 8th, .8″ of rain, High 71, Low 66
The North Atlantic is finally getting a bit more active, with a few waves that the NHC is monitoring, but right now, the storm that looks the most likely to have the next impact on the US is Hilary, in the eastern Pacific. Hilary at present is a major hurricane, but as she moves north, note that she will start diminishing fairly swiftly. The Pacific is a colder ocean, and her course along the Baja Coast will further blunt the storms intensity. Nevertheless, flash flooding and a few isolated tornadoes are probably going to come for SoCal and western Arizona as next week begins.
8:10 PM Update – The latest projection for Hilary takes her a little bit further to the west, which is bad news for the Southwest. Less time along the coast means that she won’t lose intensity quite as quickly, and there may be a bit more rain, a bit more wind as she moves into the Desert.
130AM Update – Those TS Watches in SoCal are the first to ever be issued for the region.
10pm Saturday Update – Hilary has been downgraded to a Category 1, and will be a tropical storm fairly soon. Like we talk about fairly often with severe weather in the east, this storm will be even more catastrophic because it is coming to a well populated area unaccustomed to tropical weather. The torrential rains will not be well handled, and residents should be prepared to contend with flash flooding.
