Ahead of the Thanksgiving travel season, a storm system passed through the American southeast before petering out in the mid-Atlantic. There were some outlets that thought that it could lead to a bit of a severe weather outbreak around our forecast destination of Birmingham last Friday and Saturday, but fortunately, that didn’t come to pass. The whole feature was a bit messier than it could have been, and left some light showers in the region on Saturday as well as Friday, and didn’t bring the cold pool behind it that was in the forecast for some. It hit 80 last Saturday! Clime came away with the top forecast, thanks to a being one of the warmer forecasts on Saturday. Actuals: Friday . 06″ of rain, High 71, Low 57 Saturday .03″ of rain, High 80, Low 55
10:32PM: It’s snowing everywhere in the northern US, generally east of the Rockies. There is more persistent snow in the Plains from South Dakota to Iowa, but also downwind of the Great Lakes. In New England, the amount of snow is limited, but whatever comes is coming with very blustery wind. Drive home safely!
9:12PM: Happy Thanksgiving everyone! If you are planning on returning home from your destination over the weekend, it looks quite a bit dicier than it did getting there. A significant snow fall is coming for the Great Lakes. At least nobody travels through Chicago, right?
4:26PM: Thanksgiving is tomorrow! I hope you aren’t just learning that from me. The country mostly looks like it will in Springfield, Missouri. Mostly clear, and with the first dose of chilly air for the season. It will continue snowing in the Great Lakes, and be warm out west, but it’s a big country and this is only one blog. Happy Thanksgiving!
9:48PM It has been a very windy at Victoria-Weather headquarters today behind the system bringing snow to the Great Lakes and rain in New England, but the post-frontal howling wind is nothing compared to what they are looking for in the Upper Ohio Valley.
Tonight’s forecast will take us to New England through the Thanksgiving holiday. How will Rhode Islanders enjoy the day?
At 451PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with overcast skies. Rain was approaching, already sneaking into the southwestern corner of Rhode Island, at the leading edge of a warm front. The system is deeply occluded, and the cold front will pass through overnight as well. Southerly flow will follow the secondary cold front on Wednesday, which may drag a bit of moisture into the region, leading to a cloudy, at times drizzly day before Thanksgiving. There is one last wave of moisture expected to slide through New England on Thanksgiving, but it is unlikely that there will be lingering effects. The day will be increasingly sunny, and quite pleasant by dinner time. Happy Thanksgiving! Tomorrow – Rain, particularly early, with lingering showers throughout, High 59, Low 48 Thanksgiving – Some drizzle early then clearing and colder, High 55, Low 33
TWC: Tomorrow – Chance of a morning shower. Overcast. High 59, Low 48 Thanksgiving – Sunny along with a few clouds. High 55, Low 36
AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a couple of showers; wet weather can make for slow holiday travel High 61, Low 48 Thanksgiving – Sunny to partly cloudy, windy and cooler High 55, Low 34
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of rain between 9am and 3pm. Patchy fog. High 61, Low 47 Thanksgiving – Mostly sunny, (AM Rain) High 56, Low 36
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog High 59, Lo 50 Thanksgiving – Sunny High 55, Low 36
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 61, Low 47 Thanksgiving – Mostly sunny (early showers), High 54, Low 35
CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast High 60, Low 50 Thanksgiving – Partly cloudy, High 56, Low 35
Rain will be light, regardless of what happens, for a lot of the forecast period. And temperatures will be on their way down, so the Turkey Day Touch Football game looks to be a good way to warm up. Radar showing rain moving in is below, and if you are looking to get really involved, here is a live camera from Providence.
2:52PM: There is a tornado watch out in Alabama right now. SPC has issued the below Mesoscale Discussion. Things are just starting to erupt in the region, but the severe weather is already past Tuscaloosa and nearly out of Birmingham. The area to keep a keen eye on for the next few hours is from Selma to Montgomery.
10:32PM: We focused on snow that will come this week, and there will be some disruptive shower activity through the middle of the week. I didn’t do a good enough job of conveying the possibility of thunderstorms. Look at all this lightning in Mississippi and Louisiana! Fortunately, only a flash flood warning for severe alerts right now.
We are arriving in one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, as millions of Americans will travel over the river and through the woods to Grandmother’s house. The great news is that most of the winter weather that is forthcoming is steering clear of the major airports. A shortwave will be pulling out of the southern Plains and headed for the mid-Atlantic by Tuesday afternoon but this will bring primarily rain and maybe a low cloud deck, both problems for flight operations.
But rain and clouds aren’t a disaster, as the clouds and visibility won’t be as low as they would be with a snowstorm. Any weather delays are likely just going to be secondary to the volume and other issues that arrive at airports. It will be slow in some important areas because of the rain, but not a disaster by any stretch of the imagination. I’m talking about New York, Philadelphia and Washington, reaching parts of coastal New England on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving, it will be clear and crisp up and down the Eastern Seaboard.
Fortunately, the threat for snow isn’t going to be a problem for most of the country, especially air travelers. Unless, of course, you are going to northern Minnesota. The occluded portion of the feature that will be responsible for the rain out east is also responsible for winter weather alerts from Montana to the UP of Michigan. The heaviest stripe of snow will be in Northern Minnesota, and should be wrapped up by midday on Wednesdsay.
This isn’t a ton of snow, and the roads that it impacts aren’t well travelled. There won’t be volume issues in Bismarck or Duluth or Rhinelander, some airports that will see some of this snow. Lake effect snow will become a problem on Thanksgiving, so Cleveland and Buffalo are going to be tricky for day-of traveling, and perhaps returning home on Friday as well.
Between the early start to tornado season and the exposure to hurricane season, Alabama is one of the more interesting places to forecast the weather. Undoubtedly, this is why James Spann, one of the more famous TV weatherpeople has built such a respected reputation, working in Birmingham. Perhaps we have an interesting forecast in our future?
At 1053PM, CT, Birmingham was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with overcast skies. There was weak ridging in the area tonight, helping to provide some stability, however a weakening disturbance over the Southern Plains is advancing to the east, and the attendant warm front runs through Tennessee. The rest of the energy will arrive in the late morning tomorrow, with light rain and an isolated rumble of thunder. The back end of the energy lies well west of the precipitation that will begin tomorrow morning. Expect the coverage and intensity to pick up late tomorrow evening into Saturday morning. The tailing cold front will stall across central Alabama, leading to an ongoing threat of light rain to start the weekend. Fortunately, there is an area of surface high pressure behind the wave moving in overnight tonight, and the latter half of the weekend will be clearer. Tomorrow – Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 72, Low 58 Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a smattering of light rain, High 75, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 70, Low 58 Saturday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Thunder possible. High 77, Low 58
AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 72, Low 60 Saturday – Mostly cloudy and warm High 75, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 59 Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 72, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 70, Low 63 Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then sunny in the afternoon. High 74, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 72, Low 59 Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 76, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 72, Low 58 Saturday – Light rain showers, High 77, Low 55
I think the response to the boundaries and clouds associated with this fairly quick moving system could really play havoc with this forecast. I should note that the low temperatures on Saturday are expected to occur at midnight leading to Sunday. The radar is showing off some showers, but few are reaching the ground….. yet.
Generally, when I put together a verification, which this post is, I use WeatherforMe.com’s “closest NWS site” option. For Santa Cruz, that site is San Martin, 25 miles away from Santa Cruz, and crucially, on the other side of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Temperatures there at initial check were about 15 degrees warmer than forecasts, and another 5-10 degrees colder for overnights. I decided to opt for the road less traveled, and used a MADIS site in town. It was still warmer than expected, but not as egregiously so. The arrival of a feature on the West Coast had effectively drawn the low scud away from the coast and allowed high temperatures to infiltrate. High temps on the 8th and 9th were both warmer than anyone had in the forecast, but low temperatures lined up. Accuweather had the best forecast. Would they have if we verified against a completely different climate? Actuals: November 8th, High 76, Low 51 November 9th, High 77, Low 53
