Yes, we are pretty deep into August, but it’s been a somewhat active summer on the family front, so the gears at Victoria-Weather are moving a bit slowly. It’s been a busy summer, but not in the tropics. and the severe weather has been related, largely, to heavy precipitation this year. Perhaps partly because of the dynamics of the season, and certainly because of their skill in general, The Weather Channel is having a very strong stretch, and this year just keeps getting better for them.
It was a hot time in Pine Bluff on the 7th and 8th of the month. Of course, that is when we put together our forecast for the city, one that resulted in temperatures in the mid to upper 90s during the day, and temps that wouldn’t cool out of the mid 70s overnight. Uncomfortable, to be sure, but all outlets were pretty comfortable with each other’s forecast. There was a 4 way tie at the top, and only three degrees of difference separating top and bottom. It was The Weather Channel, Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime all conglomerating at the top. Actuals: August 7th, High 94, Low 73 August 8th, High 97, Low 76
Having some minor (I hope) server issues today at Victoria-Weather HQ. That shouldn’t change the weather in Fort Collins, though, right? What can we expect in Northern Colorado this weekend?
At 956AM, MT, Fort Collins was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies and a brisk north wind. There is a bit of shower activity across northern Colorado is associated with a cold front appended to an area of low pressure in western Ontario. A leading trough has switched winds to northerly across Fort Collins, but the boundary remained just to the north in southern Wyoming. Shower activity is largely found in the mountains west of Fort Collins and Cheyenne, though there will be some light activity as the day wears on, lasting into the morning tomorrow. As the area of low pressure moves on to the east, high pressure will build in the Plains. In the southwest, warm air will begin to build again, and a laminar flow over the Rockies will lead to a down-slope and lee troughing in the Colorado flatlands. The contrast in air mass will lead to some ridge-riding thunderstorms in eastern Colorado by Sunday, but guidance and intuition suggest that the bulk of the activity will be south of the Palmer Divide, leaving Fort Collins mostly unbothered, but late in the period some activity could press into the area. Tomorrow – Isolated showers, especially early, High 74, Low 60 Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated thunder late High 80, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late High 78, Low 61 Sunday – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 75, low 51
AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds breaking for some sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots High 76, Low 60 Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon High 76, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 75, low 59 Sunday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 79, low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 72, Low 60 Sunday – Thunderstorms likely. High 74, low 56
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 75, low 59 Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and scattered storms, High 79, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 76, Low 60 Sunday – Thunderstorm, high 78, low 56
Count me in the “not likely” camp on Sunday thunderstorms. Everything right now just looks like it will show up too far to the south. Not today though, here is radar imagery, with showers heading in from Wyoming.
It gets hot and stays hot in the central valleys of California, but when you are butted up against the coast, on the west side of the Coastal Range, and without a corridor of wind form the Great Basin, it stays fairly cool, with clouds and sometimes, but not in the case of San Luis Obispo, a stray shower within the fog. Like I said, it was dry, and quite comfortable for our forecast at the end of July into the beginning of August. The Weather Service and WeatherNation drew level for the forecast, and anyone who strayed too far from the mid-70s ended up looking foolish. Actuals: July 31st, High 75, Low 56 August 1st, High 73, Low 54
6:47PM: It’s a pretty quiet stretch out west, even in the Rockies, where we might reasonably expect some afternoon thunderstorm activity this time of year. Instead, we are seeing the Rockies work as a pretty formidable dry line. As the jet shifts back up to the north a little bit, don’t be surprised to see some activity return to the mountains. That could happen as soon as Wednesday, and would also coincide with the Great Lakes finally drying out. (Not the lakes, but the towns surrounding them).
1130PM: There is a pretty gnarly looking cluster of thunderstorms, that, if nothing else, is producing a heck of a lot of lightning in the Clovis, New Mexico area. It would be jarring for a lot of places, but this qualifies as run of the mill for this time of year in this part of the country. Do they sleep along the Texas/New Mexico border?
This drive has all the elements of what I think makes a good road trip. It will take one long day, following only a couple of interstates. There is one major metro area to drive through, but also a long stretch in the open country. It will take nearly 10 hours to cover the 658 miles between our two destinations, covering the ground at a pace of 66.2mph. Hopefully traffic in Dallas-Fort Worth is forgiving.
Pine Bluff, Arkansas
Arkansas is going to be downright juicy on Thursday. Humidity will see dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and while guidance suggests most of the rain and thunder will be from Mississippi eastward, I wouldn’t rule it out during our drive to Texarkana. In fact, I would venture to say that the heavy atmosphere might lend itself to a stray storm as far west as Mount Vernon, Texas. The dew points will relent a bit west of Dallas, but the heat will still be there all the way in to Midland.
Midland, despite it’s name, is not really in the middle of anything, except, perhaps “nowhere”. Fairly isolated in west Texas, save for a proximity to Odessa. Let’s see if they can look forward to anything more than dust.
At 353PM, CT, Midland was reporting a temperature of 96 degrees with fair skies. Midland was northwest of the dry line, with a dew point in the upper 50s, compared to the dew point in Brownwood and Stephenville, which sat in the 70s. A local eddy was still producing some showers behind the primary dry line, notably over the southeastern corner of New Mexico. The trough related showers and storms over the High Plains will become less active as a storm system in the Canadian Prairie moves towards the northern Great Lakes. Onshore flow from the Gulf will still be present, and showers will be likely over south Texas, but the end of the work week should be dry in Midland. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 74 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 74 Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, High 97, Low 76
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, hot with sunshine mixing with some clouds; High 100, Low 75 Friday – Breezy and very warm with periods of clouds and sunshine High 99, Low 77
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 74 Friday – Sunny, High 97, Low 76
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 76 Friday – Sunny, High 94, Low 77
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 74 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 76
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 74 Friday – Partly cloudy, High 97, Low 75
Those showers in New Mexico dissipated before I took the image of the satellite. But storms in Texas are still roaring tonight, not threatening Midland at all.
4:12PM: The images our of southeast Wisconsin have been something else. Flash flooding has come to the region thanks to slow moving, high precipitation storms, moving through high population areas. That same set up is still stretched across the south side of Lake Michigan. There are flash flood watches and warnings over Chicago, particularly on the south side of town.
8:03PM: It’s been a quite humid year, if you haven’t been around…. or if you live in the Great Basin. Nevada, most specifically, has been quite a bit less humid than it is typically this summer.
9:20PM: Dew points are still high in Arkansas… but not as high as they’ve been! They are even in the 60s in the Ozarks tonight. This likely has something to do with the outflow from storms to the northwest, because dew points aren’t that low elsewhere.
11:01: This is pretty much what an August 10th severe weather outlook is supposed to look like. Nothing particularly noteworthy, save for the expanse that the storm activity is covering.
8:54PM: This is from the NWS – Wilmington, OH. A lot of our past few posts have focused on humidity, and, well….
9:33PM: Look at these monster cells surrounding Goodland, Kansas. Big hail is the big concern.
1159PM: Those storms noted in the prior update are along a boundary best illustrated by the dew points. It’s still in the 70s across our prior forecast region of Pine Bluff, and it is in the 50s to the north of this thunderstorm activity. I think if there is one complaint about these storms it is that they aren’t moving fast enough.
