from Victoria-Weather
St. Louis was under a dominating ridge of high pressure during our forecast period. Return flow on the west side of the ridge drove temperatures up on Thursday, and nearly everyone handled things exquisitely. Victoria-Weather had a perfect forecast for Wednesday, but things ended up cooler in the morning on Thursday, which opened up the forecast for The Weather Channel to narrowly win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 81, Low 58
Thursday – High 87, Low 55
Grade: A – C
A bunch of Gulf moisture has led to some of New Orleans western suburbs received up to 4 inches of rain, leading to some flash flooding in the area. Of course, the radar in the area is out, which really throws a wrench in things. Fthe flash flooding was reported on the ground though, and not necessarily by radar indications. Fortunately, Lake Charles and Mobile are up and running, providing coverage for NOLA.
We are headed to beautiful Upstate New York. This is the time of year for the residents to enjoy, before the autumn colors, and after kids are back to school.
At 653PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Dew points in the 60s and clear skies in the evening suggest some overnight fog or haze, especially over the various lakes of the region. Much of the day tomorrow will continue on with mostly clear skies, though increasing clouds and a congested pattern are certainly inbound.
A tropical feature lying northwest of Bermuda is projected to organize a bit and move towards Nova Scotia over the next 2 1/2 days. This is impactful, as for the time being, it is progged to pull in the latent Atlantic Coastal moisture, redirecting it away from a subtropical trough in the northern Tier that is increasing in strength and intensity as well. As the boundary approaches, the tropical feature will move into the Canadian Maritimes, opening up Atlantic moisture for the trough. Rain and some embedded thunderstorms will blossom across the mid-Atlantic, and move into eastern New York by Saturday, in the late afternoon. Rain and storms are possible through the evening, and into the night. By the time the feature reaches New York, it will be occluded, and the chance of overnight stratiform rain is higher as a result.
Tomorrow – Morning haze, High 76, Low 50
Saturday – Increasing clouds with rain, and a chance of thunder in the afternoon, High 70, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 78, Low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. Thunder possible.
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 78, Low 47
Saturday – Cloudy and not as warm; a little afternoon rain High 71, Low 58
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – A slight chance of showers before 2pm, then rain, mainly after 2pm. High 73, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 54
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the afternoon. High 69, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 71, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 48
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 75, Low 56
Satellite shows clear skies on the East Coast, and the storm spiraling between Bermuda and New England, but not yet the wave getting ready to exit the Great Lakes.
If the temperature doesn’t reach triple digits in the California valleys, is it really a heat wave? That is the question you could ask about Chico to end the month of August, where highs were in the upper 90s. You could also ask who had the best forecast, and that answer would easily be the National Weather Service.
Actuals: Friday, High 98, Low 66
Saturday, High 98, Low 67
Grade: A – C
We aren’t going to travel too far from our previous forecast spot – St. Louis – but depending on your route, we are still two, maybe three states away.
At 154PM, CT, Evansville was reporting a temperature of 84 with clear skies. There was a trough extending at the lower levels from the western Gulf of Mexico, pressing into western Tennessee, which had resulted in some clouds streaming through Kentucky, and occasionally over Evansville. This feature was penetrating a strong ridge in the eastern US, so the trough figured to get snuffed out before it can do anything interesting, particularly around Evansville.
The instability in the Gulf, however, is expect to spread into the southeastern US as high pressure begins to recede away from the mid-Atlantic. A weak trough running along the Canadian border will drape a cold front into the Plains that will be approaching the lower Ohio Valley on Friday. The cold front will pass through southern Indiana late in the day, however the instability rising out of the Gulf will prevent much moisture for reaching the Evansville city streets. While there is a small chance for rain, there is a better chance for increasing winds and an initial dose of autumnal air.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Increasing clouds and wind with a spot of rain, High 85, Low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 91, Low 63
Friday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 93, Low 64
Friday – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots; not as hot High 86, Low 65
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 65
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 68
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 66
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 68
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 66
Friday – Thunderstorm, High 89, low 67
Forecasts for Friday are an interesting study in “when do you think the front will arrive?” Later arrival suggests warmer highs on Friday. The satellite for the region shows a band of clouds spiraling all the way north from the Gulf.
Welcome to September. Lets get ourselves off to a good start with a forecast from the middle of the country.
At 751PM, CT, St. Louis was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure was blanketing the northeastern part of the US, with the western flank laying over the Mississippi Valley. There was, as a result, a bit of moisture flowing at the mid levels bringing the scattered clouds to St. Louis.
The ridge isn’t going to be easy to move. A short wave is going to ripple at the southern flank of the subtropical jet in Canada. The cold front associated with it will struggle to produce any rain fall in the middle of the country, and will be rubbed out before it reaches the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the boundary, however, some warmth will filter in and give another taste of summer.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny and warmer, High 88, Low 60
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. High 79, Low 57
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant; a gorgeous day to be outside High 78, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice High 85, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 81, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 60
Wednesday – Sunny, High 88, Low 60
I could have gone even warmer on Wednesday, but alas, what is a couple of degrees? Wispy clouds for St. Louis tonight.
The meteorological seasons don’t quite line up with the seasons of the astronomical calendar, which means that instead of waiting until the 21st, we can say that autumn begins today. This does not, however, mean that I condone the Aberdeen WFO making their weather story pumpkin spiced,
Labor Day weekend is approaching, bringing an end to a summer that has been mercifully short on headlines, even in northern California, which is part of the world that has earned some time off.
At 553AM, PT, nearby Oroville Airport was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees and clear skies. High pressure is embracing the West Coast, even as a short wave trough ripples out of the northern Rockies to the Northern Plains. The flow onshore is leading to some haze at the surface along the coast, but it is too low slung to be an issue as far inland as Chico.
The upper level pattern will continue to become more stable, with a ridge settling into the West Coast. With less flow aloft, there is likely to be less vigorous onshore flow either. Some stagnancy to the pattern may lead to morning haze in Chico, but clear hot days will still return in the day.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 68
Saturday – Sunny, with some morning haze, High 102, Low 67
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 65
Saturday – Sunny, High 100, Low 65
AW: Tomorrow – Hot with plenty of sunshine; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 65
Saturday – Hot with plenty of sunshine; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 66
NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 67
Saturday – Sunny and hot, High 98, Low 68
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 71
Saturday – Sunny, High 100, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, low 69
Saturday – Sunny, High 96, Low 69
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 64
Saturday – Sunny, High 97, Low 64
Sun will be out, so I am inclined to follow the warmer guidance. Here is a look at the musings of the Fox 40 team in northern California.
The beginning of the month of August was relatively quiet in the North American weather market. There were a couple of tropical features, but they were marked by their languid movement (Debby) or hit small landmasses, away from the American shores (Ernesto). The severe season has been slowed as well. Debby was the only real tornado producer of the month to date.
This will be changing over the next several days, as is often the case as summer changes to fall. Not only should the Atlantic basin start getting moving — there are two curious looking features on the long range model guidance — but with the change in air mass coming with the change of season, there should be enough of a conflicting air mass to produce strong thunderstorms on a regular basis, at least for a few weeks.
This isn’t atypical. There is usually a secondary severe season in the autumn, though cold air is typically more forceful than warm air. As a result, the cold can more easily sweep warmer air away, while warm and cold do battle for longer in the spring. Even though the fall season is shorter, the storms can be quite powerful.
Such was the case in the Great Lakes early this week, where strong straight line winds brought damage to the Twin Cities in a couple of rounds, and then carried on through Wisconsin and eventually Michigan. Consider this the opening salvo of the Fall season.
Severe weather is much more challenging to predict at longer ranges than tropical weather, at least in terms of trends, so we don’t know exactly what to expect more than a few days out, but we do have the short range outlook, which is looking askance at the wave moving through the Dakotas today. Severe weather is possible today and tomorrow, and may carry through across the Great Lakes again as the weekend approaches. Eventually, it will work south again before winter finally seizes the scene.
Thus far, the biggest tropical story in the Continental US surrounded the remnants of Beryl after it had done it’s worst in the Caribbean, and Debby, which was more notorious for lingering in the southeast than for being particularly strong. Now, Ernesto took a swipe at Bermuda and has left us with nothing to monitor in the Atlantic Basin.
Saharan sands are blowing off of the African continent, and getting into the trade winds, inhibiting cyclonic development. The NHC foresees no tropical development for at least the next 48 hours, and the GFS – by no means meteorological gospel – doesn’t really show anything in the area until around Labor Day, nearly two weeks from today.
That’s a real slow stretch in a season that was promised to be very active, particularly since the peak of hurricane season is typically in early September. It seems like this might be a precursor for saying that the season may not be as busy as we believed at the outset, but it is not. Even with the data we have on hand, and access to the freshest short term modeling, the Hurricane Center’s latest outlook came out, and didn’t go easy on the number of tropical storms.
There will still be a week or so from the end of the GFS run to the traditional “peak” of the season. After this peak, the oceanic temperature doesn’t immediately fall off. The season begins in June, and has been creeping earlier. As a result, the season still goes another couple of months, until November. Plenty of time, and with the very warm Atlantic, plenty of fuel still left for storms.
Enjoy the last bit of summer, but remember that by Labor Day, things may be getting pretty hairy in the Caribbean once again.