from Victoria-Weather
I’ve been traveling this month, in case you couldn’t tell! Less travel until Thanksgiving, I suspect, so let’s spend some time forecasting.
Athens, Georgia
Racine, Wisconsin
Phoenix, Arizona
Rocky Mount, North Carolina
Road Trip, Rocky Mount – Tulsa Oklahoma
Davenport, Iowa
We are headed out west for the forecast. British Columbia was on the receiving end of the “atmospheric river” this week. How does that translate a little further south, to Portland?
At 1104AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with overcast skies. There were lingering low clouds along the Cascades, but clearing at low levels with some insolation. The jet stream was visible on satellite, given some mid layered clouds over Oregon. An upper level trough is off kilter, directed east to west off shore from Oregon. As it comes to alignment with a more zonal flow pattern, cold air will move into western Oregon, and there are freeze warnings in parts of the region.
As the trough pivots on land, it is expected to excrete some of it’s moisture over the center of the state, which may include a bit of rain in Portland on Wednesday evening, though most of the activity will be further south, and further inland. Behind this boundary, moist onshore flow will continue from the Pacific, which will lead to a cloudy and fairly dreary Thursday morning, with some breaks in the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance of rain in the evening, High 57, Low 43
Thursday – Cloudy early, clearing late. High 59, Low 41
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies, High 58, Low 41
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 60, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 58, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 57, Low 42
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 42
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 54, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 42
CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain showers, High 59, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 43
Not everyone is on board with rain, which makes sense. I think the threat is low, but given the lead time is still over 24 hours, I’m not ready to pull it out of the forecast yet. You can certainly follow the course of the jet stream on the satellite imagery.
Springfield, when we visited at the beginning of the month, was in the midst of a spate of high pressure that kept things pretty dry, and pretty stable. Victoria-Weather followed along with the model guidance, which is pretty reliable when compiling temperature forecasts in a static airmass. We ended up with the top forecast, but really, it should have been much closer. Instead, multiple outlets were 10+ degrees behind us in their score. This was such a straightforward forecast, I thought, so I can’t even tell you what went awry!
Actuals: October 7th, High 70, Low 41
October 8th, High 74, Low 38
Grade: A-F
Binghamton is home to one of the smallest WFO’s in the country in south central New York. One would therefor assume that the NWS, without as much ground to cover, to be able to nail this forecast. The challenge has been cast, National Weather Service.
At 107PM, ET, Binghamton was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a smattering of herringbone patterned rain showers falling across central New York and south through the Pennsylvania. This is on the back side of an area of low pressure moving through New England into the Maritimes, and riding the back of some seasonably chilly air. The inverted trough creating the precipitation, really the first of the season, will linger until it is smothered out by a broad ridge of high pressure. This will take until Wednesday morning.
The upper level trough that is aiding the persistence of this instability is going to sink into the Gulf Stream and become cut off, developing an independent feature offshore. This will cut off the wrap around moisture in Binghamton, and set the stage for high pressure, which will move into the mid-Atlantic for the remainder of Wednesday, lasting through Thursday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance for drizzle early, then clearing, High 45, Low 36
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 34
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, with a shower of rain or wet snow, High 49, Low 37
Thursday – Sun and few passing clouds, High 56, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly High 44, Low 35
Thursday – Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer High 54, Low 35
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, High 48, Low 36
Thursday – Areas of frost before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 56, Low 33
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a chance of rain and snow in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 48, Low 37
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Widespread Frost, High 52, Low 34
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 48, Low 36
Thursday – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 55, Low 34
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 44, Low 34
Thursday – Sunny, High 52, Low 33
Many outlets say the first snow flakes of the year may end up in Binghamton! This could be an interesting verification!
12:12 Look at this scattershot radar imagery. If you didn’t know any better, you would almost guess that these are snow showers. Pretty sure they aren’t though.
8:05PM: Hey, Montana, knock it off! I’m not ready yet
9:42PM: I know I keep harping on this pending cooldown, but truly, there are freeze warnings as far south as northern Oklahoma tonight. There are even a couple of counties in the Texas Panhandle that have a freeze warning. Stay warm out there!
1:11AM. I don’t know why, the phrasing struck me as funny.
235PM The models have been particularly good with many of our hurricanes this year, so even though it is very quiet, with just one tropical wave being monitored in the Atlantic, I thought I would look ahead. The GFS, at least, does foresee that wave becoming a feature that will eventually trouble the Greater Antilles.
By next weekend, the potential storm looks like it will be arriving around Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Deeper into fantasy land, it is expected to double back over the D.R., but let’s see if the storm comes to be at all first.
8:23 PM. It’s going to be a significantly cooler start to the week for the middle of the country than what we have seen for about the last month and a half. It’s been well above normal for many places, but it’s going to feel like fall. Just a reminder for my northern Plains brethren…. this is what fall feels like in Dallas.
1027PM One thing to look at in the next three days with the colder air intruding is the first threat for snow east of the Rockies this year. It’s looking like there will be a strong possibility for snow in the Catskills as a cold front moves through on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Not much, but enough to notice.
We are free of hurricanes for a couple of days, at least, so we can take a guilt free trip from Illinois to New England. The drive will cover 1,152 miles over the course of two days. The pace of the drive will be about 66.5mph, which is pretty good, considering it terminates in New England. The faster of the two days will conclude after 532 miles. Hurricane season is also foliage season, so New England is a perfectly reasonable place to visit.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
High pressure is parked over the southeastern part of the country. It was crucial to keeping Milton from moving any further north, and instead cutting across Florida and jetting into the Atlantic. The storm was very bad where it struck, but it missed out on a lot of geography, which is good news. Now after the ridge has performed it’s life saving duty, the northern fringe is pressing south, thanks to a strong wave skirting the Great Lakes. There is quite a bit of wet weather in Lower Michigan, ready to drift into northern Ohio. As we travel out of Illinois through central Indiana Sunday, it will be dry, but increasingly cloudy in Ohio. I think the rain will b in Pennsylvania be the time we get to the eastern part of the Buckeye state, but thre could be a small bit of damp in Palmyra (southeast of Cleveland near the Pennsylvania border), where our day will come to a close.
DAY TWO (Monday)
A surprising amount of cold air will trail the cold front with the system moving into the Great Lakes. It will be chilly when we start in Palmyra, and there will be a few spots of showers peaking around the western exposures of the Poconos. Further north, higher terrain in New England will likely see their first snowflakes of the year. As the sun comes up, and the cold air settles in and snuffs out any instability, we will get into clearer air. The drive through Connecticut will be thick with traffic, I am sure, but it will dry and chilly until we reach Providence.
The forecasts for Idaho Falls at the end of the month were all over the map. Instead of falling somewhere in the middle of the group, the weather instead found itself on the cool side, particularly with low temperatures on October 1st. The sub freezing temperatures were forecast by only one outlet — Victoria-Weather. Forecasters were way too warm otherwise, and Victoria-Weather won fairly easily.
Actuals: September 30th, High 64, Low 42
October 1st, High 73, Low 31
Grade: A-D
7:58PM A brief time out in the Milton coverage, but I would also like to point out that tonight is the NHL opener, it is October 8th, and the NWS Tucson still needs to have this on their main page:
Good advice, but, wow. October? I guess hockey DID leave Arizona, so perhaps there is nothing to signal winter in the area anymore.