from Victoria-Weather
Well, I’ve certainly provided a boost of posting, haven’t I? Let’s see if this pace is sustainable, and if winter is making a hard charge for us.
Champaign, Illinois
Road Trip from Champaign to Sebastian, Florida
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Carson City, Nevada
Midland, Texas
Road Trip from Orlando, Florida to Manchester, New Hampshire
It’s not often I get to put together a forecast for Phoenix and the high comes nowhere near double digits, but that was the cast this week. Temperatures rose only to the low 70s under a strong upper level trough, and the low were as cool as the low 50s. Each day was a near carbon copy of the other one, so that consistent Phoenix forecast strategy worked wonders, even as temperatures were much cooler than one would normally anticipate in the Arizona capital. It was Weatherbug who put together the top forecast for the day, and a good one it was.
Actuals: Monday – High 72, Low 52
Tuesday – High 73, Low 51
Grade: A-B
The autumn is scary season for more reason than one reason. Milton followed Helene in September, battering the west coast of Florida, a drought in the Plains coming to an end, and the first snow of the year in the Mountains and northern Plains. After what has been a pretty scary year for Accuweather forecasters, they can finally point to October as a solid month, and one in which they were victorious.
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 15.15 |
| Victoria-Weather | 10.48 |
| WeatherNation | 6.83 |
| Accuweather | 5.16 |
| Clime | 3.5 |
| National Weather Service | 3.32 |
| Weatherbug | 2.33 |
Racine was a rainy place on election day. There was lighter fare on Monday as well, but 3/4″ of rain came to the southeast Wisconsin city on Tuesday, which really put a damper on things in the state. Cold air moved in behind the rain this morning, leading to a foggy situation in the northern Plains. Also, it slowed the cooldown across Wisconsin, with the low temperature for Tuesday settling about halfway between what the outlets who have extended hourly temperature outlooks and those that don’t had for their Tuesday low. This was a boon for the Weather Channel, who narrowly won the forecast, having only 1 degree of error elsewhere.
Actuals: Tuesday – .17 inches of rain, High 67, Low 58
Wednesday – .78 inches of rain, High 67, low 56
Grade: B-C
Our road trip tonight takes us in a route that we normally wouldn’t for this trip, because of road closures still left by hurricane Helene. As it stands, this will be a two day adventure across the Appalachians and to the southern Plains, covering 1218 miles. This mountainous sojourn will be at a pace of 68.2mph, which is pretty quick, actually. The first day will end after 545 miles, which is a mighty bit of driving.
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Our drive out of North Carolina will have to swing north because of road closures, and we will snake through Virginia. As we make our way through the southwestern part of the shape, the moist onshore flow wrapping around a ridge of high pressure will lead to at least some low clouds, but potentially some fog and mist, particularly from Hillsville to Wytheville. Eastern Tennessee will give us a bit of clear air in which to enjoy the sights. We will reach Lebanon, just before Nashville, and await a line of showers and thunderstorms that will dampen Lebanon as we sleep.
DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Or will it? Instead of moving into Lebanon, Rafael’s presence in the Gulf will stall the front and allow it to wither. We will pass through a few showers between about Jackson, Tennessee and Little Rock, which may make passing through Memphis a bit of a headache, but we will see some clear skies in the Ozarks. We’ll trek into eastern Oklahoma with cooler temperatures and clearer skies than Tulsa has seen lately.
We keep tearing through forecasts in election swing states, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and now North Carolina. It’s not intentional, but it’s certainly quite the coincidence.
At 553PM, ET, Rocky Mount was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with fair skies. High pressure over the eastern seaboard was finally starting to be shoved off shore by a deep trough in the plains. Flow at the southwestern end of the ridge is bringing onshore flow, including a few clouds and light showers over South Carolina and Georgia. Overnight tonight, the flow will moderate, and Rocky Mount will stay dry overnight.
The NHC is monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael, which is still south of Jamaica, but will move into the Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. It isn’t going to be a significant landfalling event for the United States, however the moisture from the storm will be intercepted by the strong boundary moving through the Plains, blunting it’s progress and keeping the Carolinas dry through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, High 78, Low 55
TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Very warm. High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Cloudy. Very warm. High 81, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, very warm with sunshine and a few clouds; dry weather to get out and vote High 80, Low 52
Wednesday – Very warm with periods of clouds and sunshine; a shower in places in the afternoon High 82, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 79, Low 50
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Patchy dense fog in the morning with visibility one quarter mile or less at times, High 80, Low 54
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 79, Low 61
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 57
Of our various forecasts of late, this was surely the easiest. Happy voting, and a happy end to election season!
For the weekend, Athens found itself at the coming together of a large ridge of high pressure and an area of low pressure. On shore flow was at it’s peak, and rising moisture seemed likely. Some outlets though rain was coming, but in the end, there wasn’t enough moisture. A surface trough oscillated away from Athens, which took away any trigger for wet weather, but the high overcast still worked to prevent warm temperatures. The Weather Service had the top forecast in town, thanks to a solid appreciation of the temperature trends.
Actuals: Saturday, High 79, Low 58
Sunday, High 71, Low 62
Grade A-C
It’s time for our second forecast of the day, and as luck would have it, things project to be quite different in the second forecast compared to the first.
At 451PM, MT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees. Scattered showers were flowing through much of the Southwest, but right now, Phoenix was only reporting showers in the area, but not at the airport. At the upper levels, the base of a deep, autumnal trough as digging into the Four Corners, and cycling moisture through the region, leading to the showers in Phoenix, a band of thunderstorms south of the city near Casa Grande, and even some snow at elevation along the New Mexico border.
Flow through the jet will weaken over the next 12 hours, as moisture also shifts to the northeast into the Plains. Still, with the upper level trough still in place, don’t expect a dramatic warm up, or even significant stretches of sunshine. Wind will pick up again on Tuesday evening, though expect conditions to remain mostly dry.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 50
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 73, Low 51
Tuesday – Generally sunny. High 74, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – Cool with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool; dry weather to get out and vote High 73, Low 50
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 48
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 50
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 49
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 52
Tuesday – Sunny, High 74, Low 50
OK, so that doesn’t sound so bad for election day, but it sure sounds like a chilly way to spend a couple days for Arizonans. An active radar pattern appears in Arizona.
Regardless of your political affiliation, Tuesday is election day, and Wisconsin is one of the important swing states. Our forecast for Racine isn’t just a big forecast, but it is an historic one as well. Not to putt too fine a point on it.
At 1253PM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with brisk wind and rain. The showers were a bit more scattered along the shores of Lake Michigan, but most of Wisconsin was seeing rain at this time, and every resident of Wisconsin will see at least a drop of rain today. Racine, and really all of Wisconsin, finds itself at the northwestern point of a slow moving and broad trough, which has initiated the stratiform rain across America’s Dairy Land.
The jet streak running from the Red River Valley northeast to the western Great Lakes is not going to advance eastward, but will get steady recycling energy along the current. This will be reflected at the surface through bursts of energy bringing training rain and storms north through Wisconsin, particularly on The best chance for heavy rain, along with some isolated thunderstorms will be overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect things to start cooling down late in the day, though snowfall isn’t particularly likely.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with heavy rain coming late, High 70. Low 59
Tuesday – Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, clearing and cooling late. 66, Low 52
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early…then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 68, Low 58
Tuesday – Rain showers, with winds diminishing later in the day. High 67, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, windy and warmer with occasional rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers; windy and mild; prepare for wet weather if you are headed out to vote High 65, Low 51
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 3pm and 4pm, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High 67, Low 57
Tuesday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm High 68, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning and then a chance of light rain in the late morning and early afternoon. Light rain likely and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon, High 66, Low 56
Tuesday – Light rain and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, and light rain in the afternoon. High 66, Low 51
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain and a chance of thunderstorms, High 65, Low 57
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light rain and isolated thunderstorms, High 65, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 68, Low 56
Tuesday – Rain Showers, High 68, Low 60
It’s going to be interesting to see how quickly it cools off on Tuesday, because not everyone had hourly forecasts through the day. For tonight, though, look at all the rain in Wisconsin.
With a wave of energy coming off the Gulf of Alaska, it seemed possible that Portland would see some rain on the 23rd. The model guidance had it, and the outlets that lean a bit more closely on extracting data explicitly from models included it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather was the only man powered forecaster to include it. Ultimately, Portland didn’t see any rain. Score one for the old fashioned way. The Weather Channel secured victory, while Accuweather collected their third 2nd place in a row!
Actuals: October 23rd, High 58, Low 43
October 24th, High 60, Low 39
Grade: A-C