Brunswick, Georgia to Terre Haute, Indiana

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It’s time to start thinking about holiday travel, and this weekend is about as good a weekend to do it, especially if you are trying to get some where to spend Thanksgiving week with some family. It will take a day and a half to get from Brunswick to Terre Haute, covering 778 miles. We will hit some pretty large cities on the way, but at least it will be over a weekend. Even so, the pace of our drive will be a sluggish 63.5mph, which means that first day will only be through after 508 miles.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Brunswick, Georgia

A nice cool seaside day in Georgia, and we have decided to leave and go north? That’s not my first instinct. It will be a very good day for a drive, though, and we will enjoy tranquil high pressure. We might need to crack a window with the sun shinning on us just to let in a bit of cool air. Clouds might start building in a bit towards the end of the day as a cold front starts to develop in the Great Lakes. Our drive will end in the south suburbs of Nashville, in La Vergne.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
That boundary will start to fill in overnight from Saturday to Sunday morning, and will be heaviest as we travel through Kentucky, but even then, it won’t be terribly heavy. There will be a bit of lingering rain in southern Indiana, but it will be on its way out of town, and dry skies are a reasonable expectation north of Vincennes. Terre Haute my be a bit gloomy on arrival, but it will start looking better pretty shortly thereafter. Well, it will look good from inside somewhere with a fireplace.

Terre Haute, Indiana

Terre Haute, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Last week, my alma mater, the Purdue Boilermakers, defeated the local school from Terre Haute, the Indiana State Sycamores. As a consolation prize, let’s give them a forecast.

At 1053AM, ET, Terre Haute was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 35 degrees. High pressure is lodged in the middle of the country, and while a westerly flow of the Lake was leading to some snow to the north, Terre Haute itself was well outside the lake effect fetch.
The subtropical jet is running through the southern part of the Continental US, assisting the ridge in the eastern part of the country, but the Arctic jet is strengthening, and a troughal exit region will develop over the Upper Mississippi Valley, as a cold front emerges at the surface. This is tied to an area of low pressure shifting through the Yukon and Northwest Territories. Showers, to be chased out by chilly air will develop on Sunday morning, with the late afternoon becoming clearer. High pressure will build in again for the holiday week.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 50, Low 30
Sunday – Some clouds with a little rain in the morning, High 49, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 51, Low 31
Sunday – Cloudy and damp with rain in the morning…then becoming partly cloudy. High 53, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sun High 50, Low 30
Sunday – Cloudy in the morning with a bit of rain, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon High 52, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 51, Low 31
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 37

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 49, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon, High 50, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, high 51, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 54, Low 42

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 52, Low 31
Sunday – Rain in the morning and afternoon. High 53, Low 35

A lot of cold air north of Terre Haute is leading to clouds, but there isn’t actually a lot going on up there.

October Forecaster of the Month

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I’m not sure it’s happened in a while, but we get to talk about the Forecaster of the Month without having to touch on a major storm cruising through some part of the country. Of course, there is flooding rain in Bellingham, Washington today, so perhaps I should hold my tongue.

There isn’t much to say this month, except that The Weather Channel dominated the month in forecasting, winning easily over any of the competition. They hold a commanding lead for the monthly forecast titles for the year, even though they trail Weatherbug in individual forecast wins.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug13.66
The Weather Channel10.33
Victoria-Weather9
Accuweather7.83
Forecast.io7.33
National Weather Service5.16
WeatherNation1.66

Chilly mornings in Weirton

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It seems like a trend of late, where we keep getting these forecasts that bust because morning lows are cooler than expected. This is what happened in Weirton as well on Thursday and Friday, with morning lows settling in about 5 degrees cooler than expected. The rain that the city saw wasn’t a hang up, and the high temperatures were pretty well in line, but those pesky lows…. Ultimately, the rain was a hang up for Weathernation, who lost out on the top spot because they didn’t have it for Friday, but Accuweather and the National Weather Service did, and were able to overtake WeatherNation to secure a victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .1″ of rain, High 72, Low 39
Friday – .16″ of rain, High 56, Low 40

Grade: C-D

Overnight drops

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For as heavily as the northeast has been impacted by the weather this year, and all the talk we get every winter of nor’easters and what not, the little round of showers that passed through on early Wednesday morning is almost mythological. The 5 hundredths of an inch that came to Portland on Wednesday morning before the sun was up registered only in the observations at the airport. For the first time in November, the win didn’t go to Victoria-Weather, but rather to Weatherbug. The big differentiator was the low temperature forecasts, as the low temperatures were much cooler than expected.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 66, Low 32
Wednesday – .05 inches of rain, High 56, Low 38

Grade: C-D

The surprise sunburn

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One thing I definitely remember about college was going to the early afternoon football games. It was cool, with highs only in the 60s, and the sun would be shining. Purdue would win more than they lost in those years, and I would get home happy…. until I realized I was completely sunburnt. That was the vibe I was getting from the forecast for Roanoke, which warmed to the mid-60s on Sunday, with help from the dry atmosphere in the mid-Atlantic. Especially after a cloudier day with a high of 53 on Saturday, I am sure the 66 degrees left a lot of people outside, getting more sunburnt than they would have guessed. My skin care discipline is not the best, but Victoria-Weather was able to collect the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 53, Low 29
Sunday – High 66, Low 32

Grade: B-C

Weirton, West Virginia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are getting way up in the West Virginia Panhandle for tonight’s forecast. There is a nasty autumnal storm moving through the Plains, which will only bring the same for the Ohio Valley this week. But how nasty might it get?

At 953PM, ET, the Weirton area was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. The eastern US is under high pressure, but an active area of low pressure threatens to change the pattern. This feature is in the early part of it’s life cycle, existing as an elongated pressure trough centered from Minnesota to eastern Oklahoma. The jet exit region of the trough fostering this low will strengthen and course the system to occlude and take on the more typical comma shape of strong transitional season systems.
Already, the system is ejecting some high cirrus that is nearing northern West Virginia, and that will ensure that gray skies are the order of the day tomorrow, even before precipitation arrives. By tomorrow evening, the system will be mature and the first spots of rain will arrive. The front associated with this system will arrive with gusto between about 8 and 10pm, with rain and breezy conditions likely. The precipitation will clear out fairly quickly and with a shot of crisper air. Friday will be cooler but with more sun.
Tomorrow – Cloudy, with rain, and maybe an isolated rumble of thunder late, High 68, Low 47
Friday – Rain early, then cool, High 55, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 71, Low 46
Friday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny (early rain). High 58, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Warm; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon with a passing shower High 69, Low 43
Friday – Some sun, then turning cloudy, breezy and cooler (Early rain) High 57, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, (Late rain) High 69, Low 45
Friday – Mostly sunny (early rain) High 57, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 68, Low 48
Friday – Mostly sunny (Early rain), High 55, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 68, Low 44
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 42

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the evening. High 69, Low 45
Friday – Rain overnight. High 58, Low 44

It’s going to rain, but at least it will have the decency to do so overnight. Pretty good agreement all around!

Surprise super soaker

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Forecasts across the board forecast for light rain on the morning on Wednesday the third in Sherman, Texas. The remnants of a system were on their way out of town, and a it appeared as though the worst of the night had long since passed by Tuesday evening’s forecast. Overnight, some of the trailing precipitation caught a little bit of extra energy, and before mid morning, Sherman saw another inch of rain. That’s definitely not just light showers. The temperature forecasts were decent, and we all did forecast for rain, so the forecast scores are pretty decent, but that doesn’t reflect just how sloppy things ended up after our forecast. Victoria-Weather took the top prize in Texas.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.07, High 47, Low 44
Thursday – High 54, Low 37

Grade: B-C

Portland, Maine

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are forecasting for Portland, Maine mere days after verifying a forecast for Portland, Oregon. I have nothing to add to that, but felt as though I needed to acknowledge it.

At 751PM, ET, Portland was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with clear skies. In what can only be described as an upset victory, New England was entirely under clear skies on this early November evening. The most recent Gulf Stream storm was well off the coast, and actually helping to inhibit moisture for the next system working its way across Hudson Bay.
That feature over Hudson Bay, while limited in potential precipitation, is still backed by good upper level support and substantial surface reflection in terms of temperature and lack of moisture. Tonight will ultimately be a foggy one for Portland and most of coastal Maine, however the cold front will bring first a spot of light rain overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, with a chance for cooler crisper air after the morning low clouds clear out on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – AM fog, then mostly sunny, Light rain possible rain before midnight High 58, Low 37
Wednesday – Light rain through the morning, becoming sunny, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful sunshine. High 60, Low 37
Wednesday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 55, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; great day to be outside High 57, Low 35
Wednesday – Clouds breaking, a shower possible High 55, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 60, Low 40
Wednesday – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 55, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 32
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing (rain early) High 53, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 41
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 55, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 60, Low 39
Wednesday – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 57, Low 46

It’s going to be a nice couple of days in Portland, and the rain will even have the decency to come overnight. Look how beautiful New England is tonight.