The Appalachians and the heat

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Usually, when you think of mountains, you think of snow capped peaks and chilly air. In Greensboro last week, they were directly responsible for temperatures not cooling off as quickly as it could have. cold air was rushing south from the Great Lakes, but got hung up in the mountains. Southerly flow with humid air produced clouds and a bit of rain that certainly allowed for a cooldown, but not quite on the order forecast by our model guidance for Friday. Weatherbug had a blend of a good temperature forecast, and were one of only three that had rain in the forecast on Thursday.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 95, Low 72
Friday – .01 inches of rain, High 82, Low 72

Grade: A-C

It’s all the same

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We took a look at the central Valley in California early last week, and it was a pretty tough verification. Not, perhaps, in the way you think. Fresno wasn’t going to see much weather, and it’s position on the west coast led the lot of us forecasters to rely heavily on model guidance. As a result, there was a FIVE way tie at top of the leaderboard, and the other two outlets, The Weather Channel and Weatherbug were only a degree behind. The trend was for a cooler Tuesday than models indicated, so the forecasts were consistent, they were consistently too warm.
Actuals: Monday High 102, Low 72
Tuesday – High 99, Low 70

Grade: B

Unbreakable

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The forecast in Monroe seemed promising. There was a little bit of rain in the early part of Wednesday, but then the heat was supposed to break. It certainly did not. Instead, high temperatures remained in the mid 90s, which was just as hot as it was before a weak cold front slid through. The National Weather Service and Weathernation weren’t optimistic about a cool down, and ended up claiming a forecast victory.
Actuals: Wednesday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 95, Low 72
Thursday – High 95, Low 70

Grade: C

Big heat

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Everything is bigger in Texas, or so they say. The temperature readings were pretty huge in San Antonio on the 19th and 20th, with the highs reaching triple digits on the 19th, and the upper 90s on the 20th, all while failing to dip below 80 for the overnight lows. That is a big time heat wave. Forecasts all circled the same numbers, so there wasn’t much separation, but a nearer high on the 20th gave Weatherbug the victory.
Actuals: August 19th – High 100, Low 80
August 20th – High 97, low 80

Grade :B

Cool and Cruisin’

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

Utica got the slightest bit of rain Monday morning as dissipating activity gave the city just enough to nudge the rain gauge. The rest of the day and Tuesday was fairly pleasant, though the morning lows were a smidge lower than most expected. Us here at VW anticipated that, however, and rode those cooler morning lows to an easy victory.

Monday: 0.01″ in a morning shower. High 82, Low 64.
Tuesday: High 82, Low 57.
Forecast Grade: A

Rochester’s riches

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Thunderstorms generally aren’t as widespread in the northern US as they are in the southeast this time of year, and that is a forecasting lesson I would do well to remember next time. There were storms on Monday in Rochester, just as was universally predicted, but none on Sunday, which only one outlet had left in the forecast. Oops! It was a good forecast all the way around, though, and Rochester was able to enjoy a pretty decent weekend.
Actuals: Sunday, High 83, low 64
Monday – .55″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 85, Low 66

Grade: A-B

Popocatello

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Popocatepetl is a volcano in Mexico. Pocatello was a white hot city in Idaho last week. Popocatello is a portmanteau by a meteorologist who thinks he is funny. Victoria-Weather thought it would be even warmer in Pocatello as July faded to it’s conclusion than it actually was, but we still managed to collect a much needed victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 93, Low 55
Wednesday – High 93, Low 54

Grade C

Sumter is not Florence

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I don’t know what happened to Weather Underground, our traditional source for verification information. This time around, the problem was attribution. They kept reverting back to weather information for Florence when I sought info on Sumter. It’s too bad for us, because we verified better against Florence’s figures. When running the correct verification, Victoria-Weather fell off, and the cooler numbers in the afternoon, with cooler overnight lows gave the win to the trio of Accuweather, The Weather Service and WeatherNation
Actuals: Friday (the 26th) High 86, Low 68
Saturday – High 90, Low 64

Grade: A-B

An ineffective cold front

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Back in mid – July (that’s how far behind I am on these verifications) we looked at the western Michigan town of Muskegon, which was to receive a healthy wallop from a mass of storms moving through Minnesota and Wisconsin. Those storms proved stronger than expected in the Upper Midwest, and generally lasted longer in Michigan than anyone thought. What really surprised all outlets was how little the high temperature was impacted on Sunday the 21st. After a high of 89 on the 20th, it only dipped to 87 for a high on Sunday. Not really a terrific forecast, but not really terrific weather, either.
Actuals: Saturday – .51 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 71
Sunday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 87, Low 69

Grade: C-D