A nice warm up towards the weekend

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The Upper Midwest has had a consistent, cyclical pattern of late, generally transpiring over the course of a week or so. Warm over the weekend and through the early part of the week, then the threat of a little bit of precipitation, very cold by Thursday and warming up again for the weekend. It’s happening this week, and it happened last week in Green Bay. Forecasters generally saw that pattern and latched on to it in their forecast. The issue came down to temperature, as forecasters were a couple degrees too warm for where this cycle ended up falling in line. There was a three way tie atop the standings in the end, with the Weather Service, Weather Nation and Forecast.io splitting the winning share.
Actuals: Thursday – High 15, Low -7
Friday – High 31, Low 3

Grade: B

A clearing wind from the northwest

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We needed to rely heavily on model guidance for our forecast in San Jose, thanks to tricky terrain and a dearth of information to the west. Some of it is still instinct, however, and many people shouldn’t have trusted theirs. On Monday, skies cleared a bit thanks to a brisk northwest wind, and temperatures popped into the 70s, but that was the only real forecast surprise for model adherents. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel collected the top spot, which is interesting, because the robot forecaster actually ended up last.
Actuals: Monday – High 71, Low 48
Tuesday – High 69, low 45

Grade: B-C

An unwelcome surprise

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Early in February, shortly after the Super Bowl, the east coast was enjoying a warm stretch, but colder air loomed on the other side of the Appalachians. The leading edge of the ridge was going to bring a little bit of rain, though it wasn’t expected to be much, with low pressure developing in the southern US. Unfortunately for forecasters and residents of Salisbury, where we were forecasting way back on the 4th, things developed just fin. Around an inch of rain fell between Tuesday the 5th and Wednesday the 6th, but most forecasters only mentioned a chance of light rain for the Delmarva. The Weather Channel at least had rain in the forecast for both days, but the record warmth that some had promised on Tuesday was done in by all the clouds.
Actuals: Tuesday, Feb. 5th, .23″ of rain, High 61, Low 41
Wednesday, Feb. 6th., .73″ of rain, High 56, Low 44

Grade: C-D

A strong start to the shortest month

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We had a forecast at the beginning of the month for Ocala that we still haven’t checked back in on yet. A cold front had barged through the Peninsula, but I’m happy to report there was a very quick and full recovery, particularly of the afternoon highs. Temperatures in central Florida during the winter can get a little chilly, however, and undoubtedly, residents of Ocala were freaking out at the near freezing lows on the 2nd and 3rd. WeatherNation continued their recent string of solid forecasts and earned a solo victory.
Actuals: Sunday Feb 2nd, High 64, Low 39
Monday, Feb 3rd, High 75, Low 36

Grade: B-C

Border battle

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Usually, when we talk about border battles in sports we are talking about two states that share a border playing each other. In this case, we are just talking about the very tight forecast fight in Brownsville as January turned to February. January ended with a splash of rain and unusually cool temperatures. February started a little brighter, especially for WeatherNation who had the best forecast on February 1st, missing only by one degree on the morning low, and pegging the 71 degree high. They earned the very rare solo victory after diverging from the NWS forecast.
Actuals: Friday, Jan. 31st. .1 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Saturday, Feb 1st, High 71, Low 49

Grade: A-B

Winter wins

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The forecast in St. Joseph last week speculated upon the effect an inverted trough would have in the Missouri Valley. The system would later bring severe weather to the Florida Keys, but it would only bring a case of the blahs to St. Joseph. Victoria-Weather had the best forecast, though the boundary was unable to squeeze out a drop or a flake last Tuesday (there was fog and mist, though), in what was an altogether solid forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 32, Low 28
Wednesday – .01 inches of snow, High 34, Low 27

Grade: A-C

Dry air

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Here’s something you might not know about Arizona: It’s a very dry place. Dew points in Prescott hit the low 20s early last week, which is fine in the summer, but it means temperatures can really cool off in the evenings. A little bit of moisture moved in on Monday, and while it was warmer over night, there were also clouds and slightly cooler temperatures in the afternoon. Weatherbug had the top forecast in Prescott, but it was a fairly level playing field.
Actuals: Sunday (19th) High 60, Low 25
Monday (20th) High 55, Low 34

Grade: B-C

The force field

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There are a lot of reasons that storm systems or wet weather don’t ever reach a location. Rather than coming up with the explanation on a per occasion basis, a lot of people just say that there was a force field around a city. Sure, there was the system moving through the Tennessee Valley towards the coast towards Hinesville last week, but I think we can just say it didn’t rain there because of a force field. earned victory.
Actuals: Tuesday (14th) – High 79, Low 60
Wednesday (15th) – High 77, Low 62

Grade: A-B

Bad news Billings

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Sure, we started the year in Florida, but we made sure to follow up our forecasting with the notoriously difficult Billings. Indeed, with a lingering disturbance during the forecast period last Thursday, and another stronger system moving in from the west, there was a lot that could have gone with the forecast, and plenty did. There wasn’t much fresh snow, just a bit on Friday, and a strange combination of strong winds and clouds kept temperatures from dropping off on Saturday morning. I guess the bad news I was talking about in the title belonged to forecasters, who universally had some troubles with the temperatures, especially the lows, and only a couple outlets hit on the correct precipitations forecast. In the end, the Weather Service and WeatherNation snagged the top spots.
Actuals: Friday, trace of snow, High 26, Low 2
Saturday: High 35, Low 26>

Grade: C-D

(Forecast for Billings found here)

Cold fronts in Florida – No Joke

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There was a nasty storm system that battered the country late last week and into the weekend. This verification isn’t about that system. It’s about the weaker wave that moved through just as 2020 came into being. We were looking at Deltona, Florida for our first forecast of the year. A cold front was forecast to sweep into the region, though it wasn’t expected to carry a lot of rain or severe weather with it, if you were to judge by what the models suggested. When cold fronts move through Florida, they have ready access to a healthy supply of moisture, and as the cold air blows in, it is enencumbered by frictional drag, and winds can howl, even in weaker systems. They are a real pain in the butt. This time, when the front moved through, the Deltona area saw 45mph gusts around lunch on the 4th, and nearly half an inch of rain. Victoria-Weather, which has a lot of recent experience with the Sunshine State, started 2020 off with a victory.
Actuals: January 3rd – High 83, Low 63
january 4th – .41 inches of rain, High 79, Low 59

Grade: B-C