A bleak start to the weekend

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There is a difference between a stormy day and a rainy day, especially on a holiday weekend. If it storms, that means there was probably enough sunlight and warmth during the day to lead to instability. A day with light drizzle throughout just means it was cloudy and gloomy, as it was on Friday in Detroit. There weren’t and reports of rain on Saturday, but it was still cloudy and cool. Fortunately, infrastructural systems that were at their limit already with water didn’t have to withstand too much more precipitation. Forecast.io collected the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Friday – .06 inches of rain, High 65, Low 59
Saturday – High 72, Low 60

Grade: C

A return to spring time

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It’s been a rainy week for the mid-Atantic and New England, but for the middle of the week, Barnstable and the Cape saw a bit of of a reprieve. It was cooler than one might expect, but the end of rain and increased sunshine on Wednesday overcame the onshore breezes, and it actually started to warm up, even hitting 60 in the afternoon. That kind of optimism is Victoria-Weather’s wheelhouse, giving us a victory on the day.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – High 60, Low 36

Grade: B-C

Late night forecasts call for late night verifications

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We looked at Evansville early last week, when bundle of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes promised to disrupt some outdoor plans. Indeed, it did, but fortunately for everyone working at home, the rain came only on Wednesday the 29th of April, so Tuesday was pretty nice. Ahead of the low, warm air surged into Indiana to make it even nicer. Forecast.io came through with the victory, so I’m sure they thought it was especially nice.
Actuals: Tuesday April 28th, High 76, Low 57
Wednesday, April 29th, .2 inches of rain, High 67, Low 49

Grade: A-C

Early season warmth

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One of the thing that tempers the opinion of this nascent cooldown east of the Rockies, is that the past few weeks, especially towards the Plains and Mississippi Valley have been very pleasant. Take Des Moines, where some thunderstorms on the 22nd and 23rd, during our forecast period, had the courtesy of falling overnight, and highs rose to the upper and mid 70s, outpacing forecasts ever so slightly. The Weather Service had the top forecast, though many outlets were punished for failing to mention the threat of wet weather.
Actuals: Wednesday April 22nd, Trace of rain, High 78, Low 51
Thursday April 23rd, Trace of rain, High 74, Low 52

Grade: C

Fine times

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You know, we talk a lot about how nasty the weather is in most of these posts, but let’s take note of how fine the weather was in Sacramento last week. We issued a forecast at the beginning of the week for Tuesday and Wednesday, and the weather was delightful. The forecasts were very good as well, with a triple threat tied for the forecast win: The Weather Service, The Weatherbug and The WeatherNation.
Actuals: Last Tuesday – High 78, Low 47
Last Wednesday – High 82, Low 52

Grade: A-B

No hick-ups

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A large area of low pressure moving through your area is usually a recipe for a botched forecast. That wasn’t the case at the beginning of last week in Hickory, where as we issued the forecast, the western North Carolina town was at the beginning of what would be 7/10ths of an inch of rain. Despite that, forecasts for the two days were collectively very good. Maybe because the rain was over well before noon on Monday. Accuweather and the Weather Service tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday – .7 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49
Tuesday – High 73, Low 45

Grade: A-B

Pause

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A day after a tornado struck Monroe, Louisiana, and a few days before another round of severe weather swept through northern Louisiana, there was a respite. Temperatures were cool for this part of the world, especially in the spring, with highs never pulling out of the mid-70s and lows even dipping below 40 on Thursday morning. Forecasts were generally pretty good, but this was a fairly simple forecast. A benign forecast for benign weather when that is just what everyone needed. The Weather Channel and Accuweather had the top marks.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 64, Low 40
Thursday – High 74, Low 39

Grade: A-B

Hot stuff

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Last Monday, we issued a forecast for Jacksonville, that took us through the middle of the week. Some other stuff has happened weatherwise since then. In Jacksonville, an aggressive surge of warm air indicated just what was available for the severe weather that was to come a few days later. Temperatures were, as a result, a bit warmer than most had on their forecast board. Weatherbug had two perfect forecasts, and hung tough thanks to their low temperature forecasts, and snagged the top forecast before all the weather went to hell not far from there.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 85, Low 68
Wednesday – .11 inches of rain, High 89, Low 68

Grade: B-C

As tough as promised

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We looked at the Yakima Valley last week, and I warned that the forecast might be challenging. That was indeed what came to pass. The weather wasn’t really remarkable in Yakima, but it was several degrees warmer in the afternoons than most forecasts, but substantially cooler in the mornings. One outlet let their wings, and their forecast temperature deltas spread, and Accuweather took the top spot on a forecast several outlets would be happy to forget.
Actuals: Monday – High 66, Low 28
Tuesday – High 72, Low 33

Grade: B-D

Not even for my birthday

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Guess what? It was my birthday last weekend (Sunday, to be specific) which fell over the verification period for Yuma. To be concise, there was absolutely no effort to facilitate a forecast victory for me this past weekend in Arizona. The low temperature decided to drop much lower than I had in the forecast last Saturday (though I will admit, it was well managed by our competitors) and other outlets, The Weather Channel in particular, went out and actually broadcast a good forecast. What I’m saying is, none of these reprobates could even manage to gift me a victory, and instead relegated Victoria-Weather to last place. I suppose I could have maybe not been so bullish on the cloud cover Saturday morning, and maybe take some responsibility myself, but you know what? No. It’s their fault I didn’t win.
Actuals: Saturday, High 82, Low 54
Sunday – High 82, Low 58

Grade: A-C