Thunder in the Ozarks

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Something as a swan song to the persistent trough that had been bringing showers and thunderstorms to the middle of the country, Fayetteville reported showers and thunderstorms on both Sunday and Monday. The wet weather was not nearly as significant as it had been, and it didn’t even show up on Tuesday. The benefit was that temperatures were comfortable in the 80s, and that the forecast was skillful. The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weathernation all tied at the top spot.
Actuals: Sunday – .15 inches of rain, High 84, Low 70
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 85, Low 69

Grade: A-B

No dent in the drought

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There has been a persistent drought across the west. It’s been tough this year, but it’s been ongoing for years now. The northern end of the San Joaquin Valley is no exception. Our forecast for Sacramento came before the blistering heat that is coming to the Northwest, and temperatures were relatively comfortable, only reaching the upper 80s for the weekend of our forecast, but as has been typical: no rain. Weatherbug claimed the top forecast, continuing a trend of success for that outlet.
Actuals: June 12th, High 88, Low 59
June 13th, High 87, Low 61

Grade: A-B

The heat is on in Green Bay

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Green Bay is known as the frozen tundra to NFL fans the world over, but this was not the case in June 2021. Temperatures hovered near 90 on Tuesday and Wednesday, as storms avoided the area. Fortunately for homes without air conditioners, the temperatures cooled off a bit more than had been in the forecast, which hopefully meant a decent nights sleep for residents worrying about Aaron Rodgers’ future with the Packers. Weatherbug was able to parlay the cooler temperatures into a forecast victory.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 91, Low 69
Wednesday – High 89, Low 69

Grade: B – C

Rumbles for Raleigh

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Most of the severe weather last week came to the High Plains, but it didn’t have a monopoly on all the thunderstorms across the US last week. A weak cold front entered the mid Atlantic late in the weekend, and Monday night saw a few rumbles of thunder sweep through Raleigh, bringing over a third of an inch of rain to town, along with a few reports of gusty winds in the mid Atlantic. It also brought a joint victory for Accuweather and the National Weather Service, who leapt into the lead for being among the forecaster group that called for rain.
Actuals: Sunday, High 90, Low 64
Monday: .38″ of rain, High 90, Low 65

Grade: B-C

Doink!

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Showers and storms streamed up the western flank of the high pressure system that was parked over the eastern US earlier in the week. They were always going to be a threat for Des Moines, but they were bopped a little bit harder by a storm last Thursday. Smaller spots of rain drifted through throughout the rest of the forecast period, resulting in .5 inches of rain falling through the 2 day period. Weatherbug continued a good month, and netted the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – .45 inches of rain, High 73, Low 64
Friday – .05 inches of rain High 79, Low 68

Grade: A-C

Alaskan adventure

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The forecasts for Fairbanks weren’t exceptionally bad, honestly, but I would say that an important lesson learned is that forecasting in Alaska is s very specific skill that is best honed by living there and forecasting the area all the time. It’s a different animal than the continental US. As one might imagine with this preamble, The National Weather Service collected victory. They were close on temperatures, and properly anticipated some showers coming down out of the mountains, which was not a thing that happened for everyone. So congrats, NWS, and we will see you in the CONUS.
Actuals: Monday, .02 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Tuesday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A-C

Calm in Kalamazoo

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In the midst of a cool start to May, there were certainly some dry days which the sun even peeked out across the north central US. Kalamazoo had such a pair of days at the beginning of last week, but under a cooler regime only managed to reach the mid 50s for highs. There was a near consensus on the forecast, and it was a pretty accurate assessment. In the end, The Weather Channel and Weatherbug emerged with slightly better forecasts than all the rest.
Actuals: Monday, May 10th, High 54, Low 36
Tuesday, May 11th, High 55, Low 32

Grade: A-B

A promising start

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May started off so good in Worcester. By the end of May 3rd, however, rain had moved in and started a cool stretch that would leave the state below normal for an extended period to time. The third was towards the warm end of forecasts, but the 4th, a significantly rainier period, was on the colder side. The Weather Channel navigated to the best forecast, which significantly outpaced a couple outlets, who didn’t have rain forecast for the 4th at all.
Actuals: May 3rd, .03 inches of rain, High 68, Low 51
May 4th, .61 inches of rain, High 56, Loe 46

Grade B – D

What happened?

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The verification for Anniston was interesting. There was no rain to be seen anywhere, but an area of clouds last Wednesday parked itself over town just before noon. Not only did it stop diurnal heating, but a batch of cold air rushed in underneath it and made sure highs never reached the 50s. There was a cold front that showed up to the north of Anniston, but the rain never filtered down to Alabama, thanks to the effects of a cold front over the central Gulf preventing much moisture from reaching the Southeast. So it was a strong cold front, stronger than we anticipated, but with nothing to show for it. The combined forces of Accuweather and Weatherbug tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: April 20th, High 76, Low 46
April 21st, High 55, Low 40

Grade: C

Springtime sprinkles

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Last weekend, Elizabethtown‘s forecast was up in the air. After a clear morning on Saturday, many outlets disagreed as to what twists and turns the northern Kentucky town would take. It did start on the cool side, which was the initial bone of contention, but then, clouds laden with some very light rain dictated the afternoon temperatures as well. Those that foresaw the precipitation also tended to call for cooler temperatures, but it certainly wasn’t a consensus. While they didn’t have the best overall temperature outlook, their call for rain gave Weatherbug the prize for the day.
Actuals: April 17th – .05 inches of rain, High 55, Low 41
April 18th – Rain reported, not measured, High 62, Low 34

Grade: C-D