A season for change

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Since we forecast for Sioux Falls, South Dakota has seen two separate large areas of low pressure have moved through the northern Rockies and the northern Plains. The second round brought snow to the central part of the state, and the first came just 2 hours after our forecast period ended, along with blustery winds and thunderstorms. It wasn’t enough to put the forecast verification too far off kilter, and it sure has shifted the season. The Weather Channel earned the victory.
Actuals: October 11th, High 73, Low 41
October 12th, High 70, Low 43

Grade: A-B

Autumnal feel in LA

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I’m not sure how Californians relate to the change in seasons like we do east of the Rockies, but if they do identify with the seasons, then the air in Los Angeles last weekend was positively fall like. Temperatures were in the 70s in the afternoon, with 50s overnight. If there were deciduous trees in LA, I would think to do some leaf peeping. One thing to take a look at in Los Angeles, though, is the forecast you might get from Weatherbug. They were nearly perfect for a good weather weekend forecast. The gold standard, truly.
Actuals: Saturday, High 71, Low 56
Sunday, High 78, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Dothan stays dry, gets cool

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

For the second time in the day, we had a forecast where many outlets called for rain, and I couldn’t figure out why. In Cleveland, there was a little bit of rain, just as the forecast period started, but in Dothan, the rain was indeed long out of town. The cool air behind the rain was there too, with temperatures dipping a little bit below where V-W had forecast, which opened some daylight, and another outlet who forecast a dry period in Dothan, Forecast.io, ended up securing victory.
Actuals: Friday, High 86, Low 67
Saturday – High 85, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Done in early

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I was brave and bold with the forecast for Cleveland. I had no rain in there, and for the predominance of residents in the area, I’m sure they thought that forecast was spot on. But no, a heavy rain storm was in the area for the first hour of the day on Thursday. They had .87″ of rain before 1AM on Thursday, and then it was mostly done for the rest of the week. That counts as a busted forecast for me, and Victoria-Weather fell out of contention. The Weather Channel would have won the day regardless. I’m not sure if that is a consolation or not.
Actuals: Friday: .87″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 81, Low 63
Saturday – High 81, Low 57

Grade: B-C

The Appalachians — Lower than expected

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The forecast was pretty clear. The majority of our outlets thought that Sunday would be an entirely dry day in Roanoke, because moisture associated with an area of low pressure in the Tennessee Valley seemed like it would get pinned on the west side of the mountains, at least for another day. A couple of outlets, including The Weather Service and Weatherbug, thought a little bit of rain would spill over those hills. In the end, it was a pretty good shot of rain, about 2 tenths of an inch, that fell on Roanoke. Not great! Except, I suppose, for the Weather Service, who coasted to victory.
Actuals – Saturday – High 82, Low 54
Sunday – .19 inches of rain, High 81, Low 62

Grade: A(somehow)-C

High skill

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Last week, the combination of Nicholas and low pressure in the Great Lakes finally started moving out of the country (to be replaced this week, of course) and brought a quick burst of cool, autumnal air to our forecast spot in Greenville, South Carolina. Sure, it rained on Wednesday, but the day after was heavenly. So too were the forecast. With some action to contend with, the scores on these forecasts were really quite good. Accuweather ended up claiming the win.
Actuals: Wednesday, 9/22 – .31 inches of rain, High 80, Low 62
Thursday – High 75, Low 54

Grade: A -B

A dreary end to summer

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Just as summer turned to fall in Ohio, we forecast for Columbus. Wet weather was on it’s way into the Buckeye State, and was expected to bring a change to the pattern in central Ohio. Joke was on us, though, as that change came a day early. With rain and clouds, perhaps a bit thicker than expected, that change came a day early. Highs only reached 73 last Tuesday, thought they did get even cooler by mid week. All forecasters came through with a pretty workable forecast, with Weatherbug narrowly surpassing the rest.
Actuals: Monday – .01 inches of light rain, High 81, Low 71
Tuesday – .24 inches of rain, High 73, Low 67

Grade: B-C

Cold front!

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We’ve been following along with a front that moved steadily across the country, snapping the summer like start to September for a lot of the eastern two thirds of the country. We started looking at it when it was about to pass through St. Louis about a week ago. Temperatures ended up dropping by about 10 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday. The low temperatures on Wednesday were actually the biggest discrepancy across the board, as they went all the way down to 60. The lowest low forecast for last Wednesday was from The Weather Channel, and as a result, they were the champion in St. Louis.
Actuals: 9/14 – .22 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 90, Low 69
9/15 – .02 inches of rain, High 82, Low 60

Grade: B-C

Nicholas approaches

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

To conclude a long look at the drenching conditions brought about by Tropical Storm Nicholas, we took up a forecast for Jackson, Mississippi. The rain was slow in coming, but frankly, it has been even slower in leaving. Tere was a trace of rain last Monday, and a quarter inch on Tuesday, but then there has been rain in the area every day since. Nicholas has definitely been a bad house guest. The top forecast went to The National Weather Service and WeatherNation, as a tag team effort.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 85, Low 74
Tuesday – .25 inches of rain, High 80, Low 72

Grade: B-C

No such luck

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Rain and cooler temperatures moved into the Pacific Northwest this week, and the first bouts of wet weather had just passed Redding by when we stopped in for a forecast. Unfortunately, they never returned, with the jet trough planting itself north of the Oregon border. Redding stayed hot and smoky through the weekend last weekend. The scenario was well anticipated by our forecasters, and there was good clustering across the board, with The Weather Channel securing a solo victory.
Actuals: Saturday, High 96, Low 67
Sunday, High 95, Low 61

Grade: B-C