Two things were true about the weather in Visalia early this week. First, it was miserably hot, hitting 106 on Monday and tempering a bit to something more livable, hitting 99 on Tuesday. Second, because of the clear skies and somewhat dry air, temperatures cooled off to a much more reasonable level overnight. Everyone knew it would be hot, but only three outlets, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and Victoria-Weather (in that order) accounted for it, while the other 4 were out in left field, also rans, as it were. I want to be clear, though, with temperatures like this, nobody should be doing any running. Actuals: Monday, High 106, Low 66 Tuesday, High 99, Low 64
At long last, and now at the apex of hurricane season, there is a tropical storm in the North Atlantic. Francine emerged in the Bay of Campeche, and has started to churn through the Gulf, slipping past the Texas Coast and is now churning towards the Louisiana Coast as a category 1 storm.
Francine is approaching the shore even now, and should landfall in central Louisiana this afternoon south of Morgan City. The storm is close enough to the coast, and generally small enough that the hurricane warnings don’t even cover the entirety of the Louisiana Coast, let alone graze one of their neighbors.
Before I go on, I do want to say that for the people this storm will impact, it will still come with dangerous winds, the threat of tornadoes and flash flooding in the locally heavy bands. That said, this storm is not nearly as intimidating as other hurricanes we have come to know in recent years. The storm doesn’t have the same strength, and is expected to clear Louisiana fairly quickly.
Storm surge is possible with any storm, but the southwest to northeast fetch of any surge will cause the impacts to be mitigated. The storm isn’t strong enough, and hasn’t had enough momentum to bring a lot of water with it, but also if it was stronger, the angle it is coming at is going to push moisture into relatively low population bayous.
And while rain bands will certainly provide localized downpours, the storm is going to be moving northward and out of the area relatively quickly, so those bullseyes will be just that – bullseyes, and not regional floods for all of southern Louisiana.
Perhaps the most interesting thing about Francine is where she will be going after landfall. Right now, the best projections have her following the Mississippi northward, unsteered by an subtropical feature, and free to meander northward, I’m sure Iowa hasn’t been expecting a tropical storm this year, but it is certainly not out of the question.
As always, heed all warnings and alerts as Francine makes her way inland, but also appreciate that she may be on her way towards being a memory by the end of the weekend.
Eugene sits in the higher terrain of western Oregon, and on either side of the Cascades, it can be cool and damp along the coast, and hot and dry inland from the Cascades, and that’s how it looked to go over the last couple of days. So what did Eugene end up representing? Inland Oregon, it seems, as high temperatures exceeded any forecast, hitting 90 on Sunday an the upper 80s on Monday. On the plus side, because it was so dry, low temperatures were cool and comfortable. Temperatures sunk a lot of forecasts, and Accuweather came out on top with the warmest forecast. Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 57 Monday – High 87, Low 49
I was out of pocket quite a bit this past month, which meant I didn’t post nearly as many forecasts I would have liked. All that said, The Weather Channel was able to use this small sample size to surpass the rest of us competitors ahead of what has already been a busier month. Can they maintain the momentum? Stay tuned to find out.
Unlike yesterday’s verification in Evansville, Glens Falls got exactly what they expected – a healthy smack in the chin from a rainy system that ultimately changed up the air mass in eastern New York. A cold front arrived in town around mid-afternoon on Saturday (thanks for that, Mother Nature) and immediately sank temperatures, before they could get too sweltering. Ultimately, it was a pretty good soaker as well, with over 3/4ths of an inch falling. Victoria-Weather was the top dog in the Empire State. Actuals: Friday, High 80, Low 50 Saturday, .79″ of rain, High 71, Low 54
We have put together a good number of verifications in the last few days, but this will be our last for a bit, so we better make it worth it!
AT 656PM, PT, Visalia was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 97 degrees. Temperatures theoretically should be falling soon, but as near as Hanford was reporting a 99 degree reading. Clear skies will mean a fairly rapid cool down overnight, and dewpoints approaching 60 will lend to some morning haze. Little change is coming at the surface over California, but a jet streak riding under a larger trough in the Gulf of Alaska will bring some high clouds to the Central Valley to start the week. It will be hot on Monday and Tuesday, but keep an eye on that Gulf of Alaska trough to provide a bit of relief late in the week. Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 102, Low 64 Tuesday – Some high clouds, High 99, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Hot. High 104, Low 65 Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky. High 99, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 104, Low 65 Tuesday – Blazing sunshine and hot; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 70 Tuesday -Sunny High 99, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72 Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 72 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 69
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 63 Tuesday – Sunny, High 100, Low 62
The difference in low temperature forecasts is staggering to me. I figured high pressure in the west, we’d all be consistent. More intrigue than I expected!
A short wave rippled through the northern tier, bringing cooler air to a lot of the country late last week. We felt it here in the Upper Midwest, it eventually arrived as far as New England, but it sure didn’t show up during our verification for Evansville. The boundary was supposed to arrive in Evansville on Friday evening, bringing some cooling temperatures and brisk winds. The rain never came, and the temperatures stayed in the 90s instead. Victoria-Weather played down the rain chances, but the Weather Service and Clime had strong temperature forecasts, and anticipated a slow arrival to the cold front. Actuals: Thursday, High 92, Low 65 Friday – High 90, Low 67
We’re going to take a few days to catch up on some other weather stories with our posts this week, and when we get back to forecasts, this is what you can expect.
Road trip from Columbus, Georgia to Manchester, New Hampshire
Road Trip from Manchester to Gulfport, Mississippi
Hello, happy forecast day, and happy game day for you Oregon Ducks fans out there. We will get through this forecast that covers the 48 hours after the game. I have no predictions for today!
AT 1254PM, PT, Eugene was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with mostly cloud skies. Temperatures were certainly warm, but they split the difference between the inland portion of the state, which was sweltering and seeing heat and red flag advisories, and the coast, which has been smothered in the marine layer all day to the is point. Expect temperatures to continue to climb through the day, even if they aren’t going to climb to the levels seen east of the Cascades. A weak wave moving into western Canada will continue to draw some of the moisture off the north Pacific, but the preceding ridge will encourage the heat inland to continue. The dichotomy will mean continued low clouds along the coast in the morning into the early afternoon, preventing Eugene from getting to be unbearable. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and warm, High 83, Low 56 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 86, Low 56 Monday – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 84, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 86, Low 57 Monday – Times of clouds and sun High 85, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze after 3pm. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 86, Low 58 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 59 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 58
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 58 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 54
Satellite shows some higher clouds in western Oregon, but there is certainly a healthy marine layer in the morning as well.
The radar, showing the band of heavy rain reaching the Hudson alley, is one thing, but don’t sleep on those post frontal winds. It’s howling over the eastern Great Lakes, which is leading to some small craft advisory, beach hazard warnings and even the threat of some lake effect rain later today.
