from Victoria-Weather
10:51AM We’ve almost made it through 2024. The first day of 2025 promises to be an interesting one, particularly in the northeastern US. The real show, however, looks like it will be in Canada on New Years Day, avoiding the major commuter hubs on the Eastern Seaboard. Godspeed if you need to travel through Montreal, Toronto or Ottawa, though.
A product of having a state shaped like a boot, or, given the season, a stocking, is that if you are traveling from one part of the state to another, you are liable to end up spending a chunk of that drive in another state. This 4 hour drive that begins and ends in Louisiana will be spent mostly in Mississippi. It’s a 282 mile drive, likely fairly smooth sailing on Christmas Day, but plan for a pace of 66.9mph.
There may be some lingering showers as we get out of town to head over the (Mississippi) River and through the woods for grandmother’s house on Christmas Day. Momentum for the storm presently raging in east Texas will be gone by the time we drive in the morning, so heavy rain isn’t anticipated, and we may see clear skies for bits and pieces in southwestern Mississippi. It won’t last the whole time, though. We will reach Jackson with the looming specter of more, and potentially stronger rain showers redeveloping, and impeding us the rest of the way back to the Louisiana border. Rain will begin lightening up again as we cross back into our original state, but light rain will still be possible in Monroe.
Merry Christmas, one and all! The kids are in bed and I’m up waiting for St. Nick, so might as well forecast.
At 853PM, CT, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees, with overcast skies. A line of strong storms was sweeping through east Texas, with severe weather even ongoing around Bryan and College Station, but further to the north, a shield of regular old Christmas rain was approaching.
This severe weather is burning bright, but will do so briefly. This area of wet weather is part of a short waved trough butting against a large ridge in the east. Organized strong storms won’t last into Christmas, however the region will still be disturbed. and on the back side of a ridge, keeping a return flow and the threat of showers in the forecast for Christmas Day. An even shorter wave on Boxing Day will draw moisture away from Monroe, leading to a clear afternoon on Thursday, ahead of the next batch of wet weather.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers, especially early. High 66, Low 55
Thursday – Isolated showers in the morning, then clearing, followed by a late chance for rain, High 68, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain showers High 64, Low 55
Thursday – Cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 69, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; wet roads and lower visibility may lead to travel disruptions High 66, Low 54
Thursday – Low clouds, then perhaps some sun and mild High 67, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 66, Low 56
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. High 70, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning and a chance of showers with a thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 65, Low 58
Thursday – Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 68, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 66, Low 54
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and Isolated thunderstorms, High 69, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 66, Low 55
Thursday – Thunderstorm, High 69, Low 57
Hey, Clime’s back! And the radar from the ArkLaTex is full of festive greens and reds.
The Eastern Carolinas are just as deep into December as the rest of us, but in places like Jacksonville, December is just nicer. On the 17th and 18th, during our forecast period, it was foggy and damp, yes, but also in the 70s. And sure, there was rain, but only .01″ was recorded late on the 18th. That’s not that bad! Also not bad was the forecast put forth by the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who had top billing in this one.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 74, Low 55
Wednesday – .01 in of rain in a thunderstorm, High 70, Low 54
Grade: A-
New Orleans is a lot further south from Virginia Beach than I thought when this forecast first came up. It will be a tour of the southeast on this two day drive, which will bring us to New Orleans on Christmas Day. Our sleigh will be moving at 67.8mph for 1076 miles on this holiday road trip.
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
A little bit of a perturbation in the Bight of Georgia is going to pull northward through the day today, and brush the Carolinas with a little bit of wet weather. We will skirt the periphery of this rain, which again, should be light, for our Christmas Eve journey, and it will erode both in the face of advancing colder air from the northeast, and simple distance from the sea. We will be in the clear as we turn west from Florence, South Carolina, and should then have quieter times through the remainder of the Palmetto State, and pull in for the night in Greensboro, Georgia, near Lake Oconee.
DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Merry Christmas, travelers. We will get started from Lake Oconee and head into Alabama, relatively unscathed, save for Atlanta traffic. The Gulf will be opening up as high pressure moves into the east Coast, which will mean some afternoon rain and thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley. The threat for rain will begin near Evergreen, Alabama, and continue to New Orleans. Stormy conditions are probably going to be more pervasive inland, so hopefully, the Mississippi Gulf Coast and New Orleans aren’t too rainy to spend Christmas afternoon.
7:38PM: Well, it’s here; Christmas week. Initial indications are for a stormy pattern out in the Northwest, and more wintry weather in New England. The good news is, if you live in those areas, you have surely taken that news into account as a part of your travel planning. If not, though, just remember that weather in either of those areas can trip up travel nationwide. And we are getting it in both regions. On Christmas. Be patient.
1107pm: A look at the Eastern Carolinas precip forecast outlines moisture rising from the southeast bearing toward New England
Rain was inundating the mid Atlantic when we forecast for Lancaster on the 10th. Over an inch fell on the 11th, which belied the 60 degree high temperature. Those 60s also didn’t stick around. The 12th got quite a bit chillier, about 25 degrees so, but at least it stayed dry! The forecast was handled pretty well all around, but Accuweather stood out a bit on the competition.
Actuals: December 11th, 1.14″ of rain, high 61, Low 37
December 12th, High 38, Low 24
Grade A-C
11:21. No no, that is the continental shelf off the Carolina Coast, not an above the surface physical feature touching off thunderstorms. No matter how it looks.
It was busy this month, which really added to the annual win totals, and gave credibility to our monthly winner. It hasn’t been the best year for Accuweather but in our most active month of the year (at least in terms of forecasts issued) they came through with the big win. Congratulations!
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 17.15 |
| Victoria-Weather | 13.48 |
| WeatherNation | 7.33 |
| Accuweather | 7.16 |
| Weatherbug | 4.83 |
| National Weather Service | 4.32 |
| Clime | 3.5 |
December started in quite the dreary manner in the Cascades. It had been foggy in Corvallis when we investigated on the 4th, and the forecast was for the fog to start breaking down a little bit. It did not. Not even a little bit. Victoria-Weather was the least optimistic, but that paid off, because it was pretty gloomy. The forecast wasn’t good for any of our forecasters, and the weather wasn’t good for any of the residents, as it never cleared out to start warming up.
Actuals: December 5th, High 36, Low 30
December 6th, High 37, Low 28
Grade: C-F