I think a lot of people would look at the recent weather in Miami and would easily note the temperatures, which were cooler than one would
Actuals: Tbursday, High 72, Low 59
Friday – High 78, Low 61
Grade: B-C
Miami, Florida to Hattiesburg, Mississippi
It seems like these two towns should be nearer to one another, but in fact, it’s a day and a half drive between Miami, way at the south end of Florida, and Hattiesburg. To give you an idea of how big Florida is, our drive covers 817 miles in total, and probably 3/4ths of it are in the Sunshine State. We will do 2/3rds of the driving on day one, which will account for 542 miles at the Floridian pace of 67.8mph, It’s a long ways from Miami to any other state, so be patient.
DAY ONE (Saturday)
A long, dangling front extends from a low over Newfoundland. If that gives you any idea, by the time the front has reached north Florida, it is quite weak, and as we drive north, it may only bring a few clouds over Orlando. North and west from the Ocala and Gainesville area, however, we will probably note a change in the air. Somewhat cooler air is possible, but more significantly, it will feel drier than Miami. We’ll make it to Grand Ridge in the Panhandle to call our day complete.
DAY TWO (Sunday)
High pressure is developing over the East Coast this weekend, and guidance is suggesting that the return flow will be strongest in the Mobile area. There might be some light rain showers as a result, but more likely, it will just be some puffy cumulus clouds. Hattiesburg won’t have to deal with any of that, but the afternoon will be getting warmer and soupier after we arrive.
Not so bad
I am impressed. The forecast for Jackson was locked and loaded to be very difficult. A massive blob of uncomfortable low pressure moving through the Great Lakes was going to manipulate precipitation types and drive temperatures steadily downward… except for when there was an intrusion of warm air as the low passed by on Saturday. It was a recipe for a difficult forecast, and by jove, this forecast was knocked out of the park. Weatherbug, in fact, only had 1 degree of error in their entire forecast. the only real loser was the city of Jackson, who had to deal with the rain, thunderstorm and snow chaser.
Actuals: Sunday – .64 inches of rain, High 42, Low 34
Monday – Snow reported, not measured, High 34, Low 28
Grade: A – B
Miami, Florida
Miami isn’t the largest city in Florida, nor is it the capital, but it is probably the most famous (and surely has the largest metro area).
At 1053PM, Miami was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. The state of Florida was enjoying a pleasant evening across the board, as the subtropical jet lies safely over the Tennessee Valley.
High pressure is safely entrenched over the southeast, though a short wave is forecast to develop over the lower Mississippi Valley late in the week. Because of the weak rotation in the region, expect a little bit more moisture to be entrained across Florida by Friday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, fairly cool, High 75, Low 58
Friday – Partly cloudy, more humid, High 77, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 74,
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 78, Low 58
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice High 74, Low 57
Friday – Nice with sunshine and patchy cloud High 78, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 60
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 76, High 65
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 60
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 65
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 62
Friday – Clear throughout the day.
This is the kind of weather you want when you visit Florida, right? Not too hot, a lot of sun and absolutely not a flake of snow.
Jackson, Michigan
We sure are looking at an interesting forecast for the Great Lakes today. It’s a mystery even what type of precipitation will be falling in an hour.
At 1256AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a brisk 35mph easterly wind gust with overcast skies and a temperature of 37 ahead of a vast batch of heavy rain consuming most, if not all of
After the rain that will come this morning, a well defined dry tongue will move into Lower Michigan through the middle of the day on Sunday. The back end of this feature is becoming significantly less organized and unable to access the same level of moisture. Still, light snow showers will persist in the Jackson region into Monday afternoon, but a cool down is not likely to follow suit after becoming cut off from the deeply occluded circulation.
Tomorrow – early rain, becoming mixed and eventually predominately snow in the evening. High 37,
Monday – Light wet snow, High 33, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain ending early. Remaining cloudy, High 43, Low 35
Monday – Overcast, early snow, HIgh 35, Low 28
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers, perhaps mixed with snow late in the day High 43, Low 35
Monday – Low clouds and colder HIgh 35, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly before 10am.
Monday – Cloudy (Early mix becoming snow) HIgh 35, Low 27
WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers likely (
Monday – Cloudy (Early mix) High 34, Low 28
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain likely, High 42, Low 35
Monday – Mostly cloudy )Early mix), High 35, Low 31
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 42,
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. HIgh 35, Low 28
That was a difficult forecast. The precipitation in western Michigan has already started a transition to a mix, even as I was writing this forecast post, if that gives an idea of the uncertainty we will be dealing with.
Coming soon…
Do we have a fixation on Florida? It sure seems like it lately. Given the recent weather in the rest of the country, can you blame us, though?
Miami, Florida
Road Trip from Miami to Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Punta Gorda, Florida
Major storms ready to tie up holiday travel
2019 may go down as one of the worst Thanksgivings for travelling in a very long time. As I sit on the south side of the Twin Cities metro area,
Snow has been ongoing today, particularly in northern Colorado, eastern Wyoming and across Nebraska, where it has closed schools, covered roads and severely disrupted Denver’s airport.
Since this isn’t a storm in the heart of the winter, there is the cold, snowy side, but also a side with strong to severe thunderstorms. There has already been one tornado warning in southern Missouri today, with more strong storms anticipated, particularly in eastern Arkansas.
The storm is going to continue strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, reaching maximum intensity somewhere over northern Wisconsin, meaning the snow that has fallen in the Upper Midwest will be
THERE IS ANOTHER STORM.
This second storm, thanks to travel across the north Pacific is in the process of explosive cyclogenesis – a bomb cyclone – and will slam into the northern California coast tonight. With it will come more gusty winds, rain and a whole lot of snow the interior west. While much of California will appreciate the rain, they could do without more wind, and the snow inland will be fairly comprehensive. That is to say, it’s not going to be confined solely to the mountains. Take a look at the watches and warnings presently plastered across the country.
All the oranges and browns are wind related alerts, thanks to the potency of the first system, while southern Arizona is also under threat for flooding, thanks to the moisture
Most of the time, foot of snow the day before Thanksgiving would be bad enough, but in the Midwest, they will also need to concern themselves with the weather after Thanksgiving. If folks somehow managed to leave the house and visit their relatives, they will then need to contend with a second round of snow that will likely start as light freezing rain, particularly from about Sioux Falls to Omaha.
In my back yard, we are probably looking at another 2-4″ of snow on top of a glaze of ice, and more gusty winds to conclude what will be a very long holiday weekend.
Onshore and off the pace
The cold front that roiled the afternoon in the southeastern US yesterday induced a southeasterly, onshore flow over the eastern coast of Florida.
Actuals: Friday, High 76, Low 56
Saturday
Grade B-C
Charlotte, North Carolina to Florence, Alabama
On this Saturday evening, all I can think is that this drive is going to take us right through SEC country. We’ll depart from ACC territory, I suppose, as we take an 8 hour, somewhat circuitous drive to northern Alabama. We will be on the road covering 507 miles at a pace of only 64.9mph. But really, check out this route.
There is a small, tightly wound area of low pressure shuttling through the southeastern US towards the Mid-Atlantic overnight tonight. By the time we wake up to get on the road, the low will be a thing of the past, leaving only a shallow lee trough, which may aid in the development of some fog in the wee hours. After we get to the higher terrain in South Carolina, and then head through north Georgia in the daylight, we will only be concerned with traffic and the sun shining in our eyes. All in all, Saturday will be the better day to travel this weekend.
Lost in a fog
Forecasts for Decatur were generally not too bad, save for one nasty verifying period: Wednesday morning. Even if they didn’t explicitly say they were expecting fog in their forecast (erm, I guess that was only me) it was still in the back of our minds. Decatur did see visibilities drop to a quarter of a mile in the morning, and despite that, temperatures continued to drop, all the way to 26. The 3 coolest morning lows all collected the three top forecasts, with The Weather Channel and Forecast.io earning victory. The temperature tracking surrounding the occluded front on Thursday surprisingly didn’t play into the victory totals at all.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 51, low 26
Thursday – .24 inches of rain, High 58, low 40
Grade: B-C