Springfield, Massachusetts

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

For it’s small size, the state of Massachusetts is a compelling weather state. From the exposed Cape Cod to the mountains of the western Berkshires, there are a lot of different scenarios at work. It’s a difficult place to get a handle on for meteorologists, and not just because Massachusetts is hard to spell.

At 3:53PM, ET, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies and a brisk south wind. Low pressure over western Pennsylvania was becoming quite occluded, with warm air surging up the east coast and pushing the occluded/cold front offshore. An inverted trough was brining general rain showers to the eastern Great Lakes, and would be drifting through New England through today.
The upper level trough will be overridden by a more laminar flow through eastern Canada. The surface low pressure is going to continue to weaken and lose momentum as it slides into New England. Still, a little bit of shower activity will sneak in tomorrow, and the system will revitalize over the ocean and increase the chance for rain and thunder through the day on Monday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 70, Low 54
Monday – Mor overcast with a better chance for rain, High 67, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High – 67, Low 54
Monday – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 68, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 67, Low 52
Monday – Periods of rain High 66, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 52
Monday – Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, High 65, Low 54
Monday – Showers likely, High 65, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with heavy showers, High 66, Low 55
Monday – Nostly cloudy with light showers likely High 66, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 54
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 48

Showers earlier today encircled the region, but looked ominous south of Long Island.

The cold side

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Not unlike today, there were strong thunderstorms over the lower Mississippi Valley. When we looked at the weather in Texarkana, many outlets sounded the alarm, prospecting for severe weather in the region. In fact, when storms really got going, Texarkana was entrenched in heavy rain and wasn’t destabilized enough for severe storms. Temperatures couldn’t even climb out of the 60s, but in better news, it remained cool because the system was almost out of the area already, and Sunday was a much quieter day. Forecast.io had nearly perfect numbers
Actuals: Saturday – 1.26″ of rain, High 59, Low 55
Sunday – High 65, Low 45

Grade: A-C

Ogden, Utah to Duluth, Minnesota

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Google recommends two routes between Ogden and Duluth. One of them only has Fargo as the largest town between the two destinations. We’re going to take a more southerly route, in which we will pass through the Twin Cities. It’s a little less lonely. The drive will take 2 1/2 days and cover 1381 miles. Our pace will be 67.1mph, which means that the first two days will intend to conclude after 536.7 miles. Hope you like country music, because I bet there isn’t much else on the radio.

DAY ONE (Friday)
The worst place to get stuck in the weather is the mountains. Slick roads plus climbs and drops and it can get a little dicey. Well, we are in Utah, and they don’t like dice. There will be high pressure in the northern Rockies tomorrow, holding a developing area of low pressure up in Canada while it warms up along our route. We will get to the sleepy eastern Wyoming town of Mule Creek, which is north of Lusk.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
Another advantage to the southern route, aside from seeing actual human beings, is that the area of low pressure moving through Canada won’t carry enough cold air or momentum to intercept us as we pass through South Dakota or southwest Minnesota. We’ll make it to Mountain Lake, Minnesota with dark clouds with no rain on the northwestern horizon as we end the day.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
If there is any precipitation with the passage of this cold front, it will be overnight as we recline in Mountain Lake. The cold front will be through southern Minnesota, so cool conditions will return as we head towards Duluth. Duluth is a very nice town, and because of Lake Superior it is always a little cool. Bring a jacket!

Duluth, Minnesota

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It’s the middle of April, and, disgusting though it may sound, we can’t officially exclude snow from the forecast. Not without a thorough examination, anyway.

At 416PM, CT, Duluth was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with drizzle and a brisk northwest wind. The temperature across the border in Superior, where wind was more directly coming off the Lake of the same name, was only in the mid 30s. No snow is presently being reported in northwest Wisconsin, but it is certainly not out of the question as cold air continues to filter in.
Low pressure will track from southeast Minnesota, through central Wisconsin and into northern Michigan, which will be near enough to Duluth that cold air won’t really sneak in until late in the game. There will be a little bit of leftover moisture overnight when the temperature profile is most likely to permit snow in the early morning hours tomorrow. There will be a quiet period Thursday afternoon, followed by a very pleasant day on Friday. An area of low pressure moving through northern Saskatchewan will drag warmer air north by Friday evening.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with drizzle in the morning, then sunny, High 51, Low 37
Friday – Sunny and warmer, High 60, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain early. Snow may mix in High 51, Low 36
Friday – Sunny skies High 56, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a brief shower or two, High 49, Low 36
Friday – Mostly sunny; not as cool High 56, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely before 7am, then showers likely, mainly between 7am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 49, Low 37
Friday – Sunny, High 57, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. ain showers likely in the morning then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 51, Low 38
Friday – Sunny, high 57, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 48, Low 37
Friday – Sunny, High 57, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 54, Low 40
Friday – Partly cloudy overnight. High 63, Low 36

Forecast.io went way warmer than the rest of the group, suggesting faith in model guidance. Makes sense since it is a computer algorithm. I captured the radar much later than I started the forecast, but there is still a bit of light rain in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Early start to the severe season

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Generally speaking, Tornado Alley is at its most active during the late spring and early summer. The most treacherous tornadoes in Oklahoma’s history have all seem to come in the first week in May, for example. Here in 2019, however, we have been reminded that the so called “Dixie Alley” sees its busiest time in the early part of spring.

We’ve already seen the deadliest tornadoes in 6 years on March 3rd, as a twister in Beauregard, Alabama killed 23 people there alone. Earlier this week, destructive tornadoes rumbled from Franklin and Alto, Texas to Vicksburg, Mississippi.

This pattern is expected to continue in the next couple of days. There is a chance for strong thunderstorms today in the southern Plains, a bit further west than what we have seen so far, but tomorrow poses a risk for a return of severe storms, with an emphasis on tornadoes in Dixie Alley. There is an enhanced risk for severe storms from Louisiana to Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida.

The jet stream hasn’t quite retreated to Canada yet this early in the season, so surface moisture doesn’t build all the way back to the Plains. Cold air is more dense and has more momentum than warm air, so it has no problem intruding on the southeastern US, touching off the strong storms of early spring.

It will get a little bit further away, that cold air, as the summer approaches and finally arrives. The severe threat in the southeast will lessen, but the oppressive heat and humidity will certainly arrive.

All Rain is not created equally

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We’ll touch upon the storms that have swept through the south, in particular east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley soon, but in a less important note, gosh darn it it rained in Hattiesburg on Tuesday morning. It wasn’t much. Nobody noticed it because it was so brief and pre-dawn, but forever on the record it will say it rained on Tuesday April 9th, 2019, and nobody will remember it or acknowledge it, because it was a trace of rain in a week that saw the area get pummeled by more concerted rounds of stormy conditions. on Monday and then again over the weekend. All of these complaints are to say that Victoria-Weather didn’t do greater with the forecast. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation did, however, winning the day.
Actual: Tuesday -Trace of rain, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – High 82, Low 56

Grade: A-C

Coming soon…

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Well, we finished this week off with a pretty nasty system in the south central US, and the next few days don’t look any less active. Where will we dispatch from in the next several days?

Duluth, Minnesota
Road Trip from Ogden, Utah to Duluth

Springfield, Massachusetts

Savannah, Georgia

Denver, Colorado

Road Trip from Denver to Athens, Georgia

Texarkana, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Texarkana was named after three states it is near. It straddles the Texas-Arkansas border, and isn’t far from Louisiana. Sure, it’s closer to Oklahoma, but Texarklahomana is unwieldy.

At 953PM, CT, Texarkana was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. An oscillating boundary over the region is beginning to pivot back north as an area of low pressure develops over the Big Bend area of Texas. The front had pushed south, associated with a strong system now north of the Great Lakes, but the base of the parent trough is over Texas, and fostering development at the tail of the original front.
Texarkana looks to be directly in the line of fire for some strong weather tomorrow. Heavy rain with strong thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day, with the best chance coming in the late morning. Because the activity is expected to arrive so early, Texarkana may avoid a particularly tough fate, which is more likely to the southeast, where a “Moderate Risk” of severe weather is being forecast. The dynamics of the system, particularly the inherent vorticity and widespread instability suggest that this storm could result in a large tornado outbreak. Overcast skies and the chance for light rain will continue through the early morning on Sunday, but clearing skies will arrive by lunch time and continue for the remainder of the weekend.
Tomorrow – Rain with strong thunderstorms, High 64, Low 56
Sunday – Scattered showers early, then clearing, High 62, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds and becoming windy with strong thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado with some storms. High 59, Low 56
Sunday – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 64, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Rain and severe thunderstorms; storms can bring flooding, hail, damaging winds and even a tornado High 64, Low 56
Sunday – Some clouds, then sunshine; breezy and cool High 61, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds High 65, Low 56
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 62, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstoms. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes in the afternoon. High 59, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon, High 61, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with heavy thunderstorms, High 65, Low 56
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 62, Low 47

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting overnight and windy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 59, Low 55
Sunday – Mostly cloudy until evening. High 64, Low 45

Here is a look at radar imagery of banded showers across the Ark-La-Tex. Below is a Facebook live event from Todd Warren, a meteorologist out of of NBC in Texarkan/Shreveport looking at the severe threat for tomorrow.

Drop dodging

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The forecast later in the week for Monroe, Michigan would become a little bit gloomier, but at the beginning of the week, there was only an isolated shot at some showers. It was warm, otherwise, with a lot of sun. More sun than expected, because those rain showers never materialized in Monroe, and temperatures warmed even more than expected. A warm forecast doesn’t usually mean Weatherbug has a horse in the race, but they did this time, claiming victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 64, Low 43
Monday – High 72, Low 55

Grade: A-D

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

After a quiet weekend, we are jumping back into the world of forecasting. Another big storm looms here in mid April, which is fine alongthe Gulf Coast, and might even be a little fun. Don’t ask about what it’s like up north.

At 753PM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees and overcast skies. Central Mississippi was seeing an active weather night, as a clearly evident vorticity maximum centered southeast of Brandon was drawing a band of thunderstorms along I-59, however the southern end was pulling northeast and away from town. The air in the southeast is juicy and unstable, but the trough parenting this hit of low pressure has little upper level support and a lot of forward momentum. Expect a quiet night in Hattiesburg.
And so it will be on Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level high pressure follows into Mississippi. Expect a brisk warm up on Wednesday as a beast of a system develops in the central Plains and taps into the Gulf of Mexico for moisture.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, warmer and more humid, High 85, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – A shower or two around the area in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 80, Low 61
Wednesday- A mainly sunny sky. High 86, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 79, Low 63
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine; warmer High 86, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Sunny High 84, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the morning High 78, Low 63
Wednesday – Sunny, high 85, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 81, Low 62
Wednesday – Sunny, High 84, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 63
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 56

First, check out the radar, and the low pressure evident even on this map.

Now let’s check in with WJTV from Mississippi for the Pine Belt forecast.