I wrote recently about the flooding in eastern Kentucky and across West Virginia. Western Maryland, and specifically the city of Cumberland, for which we had a forecast last week, didn’t avoid the persistent soaking rains either. On the last day of February, Cumberland endured daylong rain that accumulated to over an inch. Fortunately, reports of flooding in Maryland weren’t as prolific, but this was enough rain to cause concern. Weatherbug was the top forecast for the end of the month. Actuals: Saturday – .03 inches of rain, High 47, Low 25 Sunday – 1.21 inches of rain, High 47, Low 40
They are only two states away, but at opposite ends of those big Prairie states. What I am trying to say, is that the distance between Rapid City and Topeka is a little bit longer than I expected. Most of it is on an interstate, so the 686 miles will pass at a pace of 67.3mph. I will spare you the math, that’s a 10 hour drive.
Rapid City, South Dakota
I don’t want to sound too overdramatic, but this drive will be a race against time. An area of low pressure moving out of the southern Rockies is headed right toward Topeka. Our route will go north of the northern most fringe of the rain and then east of the easternmost fringe of rain on Thursday. The rain will finally reach Topeka after midnight on Thursday, which means our drive will be dry, but our day in Topeka will not be.
I really enjoy forecasting in Kansas. It’s right there, smack dab in the middle of the country, and it gets a little bit of influence from the Rockies, a little from the Gulf. It’s a lot of fun, I think.
At 253, PM, CT, Topeka was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with clear skies and a brisk southwest wind. High pressure was dominating the picture in the middle of the country, leaving the entirety of Kansas in a pleasant warm air regime. Some brisk southerly winds were being drawn towards low pressure in the Canadian Prairies, but a feature along the Gulf Coast was intercepting moisture across the country, leading to the warm, dry situation in the Plains. The clear skies and increasing warm weather will continue unabated through the middle of the week, however a fast moving wave presently over the Pacific, off the California coast will move swiftly on a line for Kansas. Rain should wait until after midnight, coming on Friday morning, but some warm south winds will take hold on Thursday afternoon. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 37 Thursday – Increasing clouds late, High 70, Low 34
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 34 Thursday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 70, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow – Mild with plenty of sun High 67, Low 35 Thursday – Mild with plenty of sun High 69, Low 34
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 34 Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 34
WB: Tomorrow -Sunny, High 70, Low 35 Thursday – Sunny, High 69, Low 35
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 34 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 34
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 69 Low 35 Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 36
The series of systems moving through the Tennessee Valley, towards the Mid-Atlantic, have generally been rainy, but not particularly threatening. Not individually, at least.
The problem is that the stream of moisture took a path through the hills of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. While steady rain anywhere will end up being problematic, it’s a much shorter trip to disaster in the terrain of the central Appalachians. Take a look at the video from WTHR showing the fast water flowing through the streets of Hurricane, West Virginia, west of Charleston
The end of February saw another, somewhat repetitive pattern, with perturbations emerging from the southern Plains and heading for the eastern Great Lakes. It happened more than once, including early last week when we were forecasting in Ocean City, New Jersey. It was about to rain on Sunday night when we looked at the forecast, and to the surprise of a few, that rain mixed with snow on Monday morning. It was more rain than snow, however, and nothing accumulated as the day wore on. Ultimately, it was a tied forecast win for Forecast.io and Victoria-Weather. I had a typo in my forecast, so I am ok letting FIO have the plaudits on this go-around. Actuals: Monday – .46″ of rain, High 45, Low 31 Tuesday – High 51, Low 35
West Texas to Western Maryland. I’m not sure there is a whole lot in common between the two locales, but maybe more than one would initially suspect. It’s a three hour drive, covering 1526 miles. We’ll move at a pace of about 67mph. The first two days will be the longer of the two at 536 miles, with the last day coming at only about a 7 hours drive. Barely anything to worry about.
Day One (Sunday)
Lubbock, Texas
Texas and Oklahoma, along with much of the rest of the middle of the country, are going to see a cold front move through overnight tonight. It’s going to really slow down south and west of St. Louis, and throughout a lot of the day, particularly after we cross the Red River north of Wichita Falls, we will be traveling in the wake of the front. There will be some wind and a little bit of rain on the back end of the feature, and I’m not fully confident we will ever get out of it on Sunday. Fortunately, after we arrive in Big Cabin, in northeastern Oklahoma, things will trend drier, and we won’t have to worry about it on the window all night. Boy, Big Cabin… I hope there is some sort of place to stay in Big Cabin.
DAY TWO (Monday) High pressure will build over the Great Lakes behind the system moving through overnight tonight, bringing cooler temperatures back to the area. Nothing extraordinary, mind you, but perhas back down to normal through Missouri and Illinois, before we pull in for the night in Monrovia, Indiana, the last exit before the Indianapolis metro.
DAY THREE (Tuesday) The cooler weather will rotate back up towards the North Pole, where it belongs, but the clear skies will remain. Some westerly wind may lead to a few clouds over the higher terrain in West Virginia, but it will be pretty more than impactful on our drive. Cumberland will be dry when we pull into town.
Let’s see what’s going on inland in Maryland tonight.
AT 955PM, ET, Cumberland was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with light rain. That rain wasn’t likely to continue through the night. The back edge of this batch of rain, presently inundating the District of Columbia, was nearby. A more likely change, however, would be that the rain changes to snow before precipitation ceases. A trio of southwest to northeast jet streaks presently lies across the mid Atlantic, fostering an environment of instability, with light rain moving across the region. Some jet coalescence will occur in the next 12 hours, offering guidance for the activity in the area right now. It will jet off towards New England, while additional cyclogenesis will begin at the base of the trough, over the high Plains. As it drifts into the Upper Midwest, a well developed warm front will track through the area on Sunday morning. Fortunately, the warm air will arrive before the precipitation, and only rain is expected. Unfortunately, the system is going to occlude quickly, and the cold front will also drag itself across western Maryland by Sunday afternoon. Sunday, as a result, will be rainy throughout the day. Tomorrow – Wintry mix early, then clearing and mostly cloudy. High 56, Low 34 Sunday – Rain all day, High 51, Low 39
TWC: Tomorrow – Light rain early. A mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. (early snow), High 58, Low 34 Sunday – Rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall, High 49, Low 42
AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, mostly cloudy and not as cool (Early snow) High 58, Low 34 Sunday – Rain High 50, Low 40
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain, mainly before 1pm High 56, Low 38 Sunday – Rain, mainly after 7am. The rain could be heavy at times. High 53, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and freezing rain likely in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated rain showers in the afternoon. High 54, Low 36 Sunday – Rain, High 48, Low 41
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 57, Low 34 Sunday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 53, Low 40
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon. High 57, Low 34 Sunday – Rain throughout the day. High 53, Low 40
It looks pretty rainy in and around Cumberland this weekend. At least we are all used to being indoors by now, right? Here is the rain right now. Not showing much in Cumberland, but that is probably an effect of the mountains in western Maryland.
It was a really tough middle of February, but late last week, the recovery and a look towards spring began. We put together a forecast for Gulfport, which, even along the Gulf Coast, endured unusually cold weather. They started bouncing back on Friday and Saturday, however, with temperatures almost touching 60 on Saturday. It’s not warm, especially in southern Mississippi, but it was getting there. To go along with the positive vibes, there was a three way tie atop the leaderboard. Accuweather, Weatherbug and Forecast.io secured the top spot. Actuals: Friday, High 56, Low 33 Saturday – 57, Low 28
It’s been a long time since we put together a road trip. It’s for the best, as the world hasn’t been quite so navigable of late. Our drive this week will cover three days, with the third day lasting quite a bit longer than the first two. It’s 1794 miles from the New Jersey coast to west Texas, and we will cover that at an aspirational speed of about 66mph. Hopefully, we can get 532 miles out of the first two days of the trip.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
Ocean City, New Jersey
A quick little feature is shifting out of te Great Lakes today, and will pass the mid-Atlantic coast overnight tonight. By the time we start rolling on Thursday, high pressure will be strengthening over the Ohio Valley and upper Appalachians. Sunny skies, though entirely too cool for much windows down driving, will be on the order throughout our drive from the coast to our day one waypoint, Columbus, Ohio.
DAY TWO (Friday) The next area of low pressure is going to move from the southern Plains and pass nearly entirely south of our route on Friday, rendering the better part of the drive dry. Towards the very tail of the day, though, an inverted trough will phase with an upper level wave from the Upper Midwest. This will produce clouds and a bit of light precipitation across a large tract of the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. This will include Missouri, and we might see a few flakes west of Rolla. We’ll stop for the night on County Road J south of Powellville, Missouri on Friday night. Don’t expect a wild nightlife.
DAY THREE (Saturday) Any precipitation we see overnight will be insignificant to grassy areas, but it may make for some slick spots early on. Temperatures and sunshine will lead to wet and eventually dry roads pretty quickly. Expect good conditions through Oklahoma City, before it might get a little bit dicier. A bit of development is expected along a boundary in east Texas and Oklahoma, and some light rain showers are possible from there to about Wichita Falls. It will get dry again, I suspect, as we turn westward again, and on to Lubock.
Snow was reported sporadically for the first 36 hours of the forecast period in Utica. The grand total accumulation was about 2 hundredths of an inch of precipitation, which is probably less than half an inch of true accumulation. Downwind of the Great Lakes, that practically qualifies as a no snow day. Temperatures were a challenge, cooling more than expected on Saturday. Ultimately, Victoria-Weather continued our winning streak. Actuals: Friday, Snow reported, not measured. High 28, Low 21 Saturday – .02 inches of snow, High 28, Low 7
