Wrong place at the wrong time

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There are presently three named features in the north Atlantic and North America. Fred is continuing his slow spin into oblivion over the eastern US, while Tropical Storm Grace is moving through the Caribbean and Tropical Storm Henri is spiraling out by Bermuda. You can see them all on satllite.

Well, at least you can see the tail end of Fred. He is a spiraling storm presently threatening rain and tornadoes to the central Appalachians. The rotational energy will dissipate through tomorrow, but rain will continue in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow.

Off shore, Henri is presently the stronger storm, and likely will be the case until Grace reaches the open Gulf again. Henri will disrupt travel to and from Bermuda, but is not going to affect the island directly. Grace, the weaker seafaring storm, has never really been able to muster herself to become a hurricane, and looking at the wind history, hasn’t been a significant storm.

Of course, there are times when the numbers don’t tell all the story. Even when considering Fred, Henri is the strongest of these three storms (though Grace may eventually overtake him), and Fred has been dropping tornadoes in the western Carolinas all day, but it is indeed Grace that has been the most problematic.

Grace passed through Haiti at a time when the country was struggling with the aftermath of a strong earthquake that left thousands dead. Grace brought flooding rains to the country as relief efforts were underway. There is a point at which the death toll from the earthquake and Grace are inextricably linked, but at this point, no loss of life has been assigned to the storm. Whatever the statistics bear out, Grace, in all her disorganization came at the worst time to the worst place, something that will never describe Henri, even if he is the bigger storm.

Showers and storms are the only relief

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We are a nation divided. Any watch of the news will tell you that, but also, we are divided climatologically right now. Its hot and dry west of the Mississippi, and it’s been tolerable but west to the East. Such was the case in Bloomington, Indiana at the beginning of last week, when temperatures were allowed to remain in the 80s, and on Monday, the ground soaked up half an inch of rain. Surely, half the country would appreciate the wealth being shared. Victoria-Weather stepped up and earned the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – High 87, Low 67
Monday – .53″ of rain, High 82, Low 69

Grade A-C

Great Falls, Montana to Springfield, Missouri

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I’m always interested in the more diagonal routes. They take us over terrain we don’t always get to see. Such is the case with this ride, which will take about 2 1/2 days through the Rockies and High Plains. We’ll cover 1457 miles at a pace of nearly 70mph. The drive will conclude at the end of the first two days after 555 miles of sincerely wide open terrain.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Great Falls Montana – By Montanabw – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=25249931

It’s extremely dry across so much of the country, and it has led to wildfires blanketing the country in smoke. Our route is affected by the smoke, even, with parts of US 212 closed because of the fires, requiring a trip through Wyoming on I-90. We’ll make it to Whitewood, South Dakota, in the Black Hills before the drive is over. A lobe of low pressure will swing into the Northern Rockies, and will bring rain to western Montana. We’ll stay dry in Whitewood, and throughout our drive.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Low pressure is going to deepen quickly in the High Plains east of the Rocky Mountains, but through the day in South Dakota and south into Iowa, the feature will only function to drive hot humid air north. Brisk, hot winds are expected, but the low isn’t going to move anywhere, so precipitation is not anticipated.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The Gulf will be opened by the aggressive southerly flow, and showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to start bubbling northward. Showers with a few rumbles of thunder are possible from Kansas City south to Springfield

Springfield, Missouri

Springfield, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Springfield is just north of the Ozarks in southwest Missouri. It’s a surprisingly well populated region, with Springfield the largest town to speak of.

At 1052AM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were in the mid 60s, which definitely led to some discomfort, and it will only get warmer through the day. There appeared to be a dry line south of town, as dew points and temperatures were significantly higher even in Oklahoma, not so far away. The boundary has led to a few scattered showers popping up in the region, but the heaviest rain was north of the aforementioned boundary.
The boundary responsible is eventually tied to a shortwave in the Great Lakes. High pressure is building over the north central US and will press south, limiting the flow of moisture into the Plains. Because the boundary is so removed from the parent low, which itself is only a weak shortwave, it won’t feel obliged to move any faster than the ridge sinks south. Clearing will finally come by Sunday with the Gulf effectively staunched. High pressure generally means cooler temperatures, as it will in Missouri for the middle of August. Well, relatively cool.
Tomorrow – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 85, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late. High 84, Low 69
Sunday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – A thunderstorm in spots in the morning; otherwise, humid with times of clouds and sun Hih 81, Low 69
Sunday – Nice with times of clouds and sun High 82, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow -A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 81, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy, slight chance of showers in the morning then slight cance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 82, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 84, Low 69
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 83, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 67
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 59

Radar with a few isolated showers rolling through the region Storms should remain non-severe, so that’s nice.

Dog Days in Muscle Shoals

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It was a slow start to the summer in the southern US, with temperatures that were actually fairly comfortable. It couldn’t last, of course. It never does, and in Florence and the rest of northern Alabama, it was a taste of what residents usually come to expect in August. Temperatures were in the 90s by Monday afternoon, with dew points well into the 70s. It was a steam room just being outside on Sunday and Monday in Florence. Granted, it’s a couple degrees warmer than normal, but it’s also not as far out of the ordinary as the cooler start was. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the period.
Actuals: Sunday – High 89, Low 70
Monday – High 94, Low 74

Grade: B-C

July Forecaster of the Month

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It is absolutely a credit to the meteorological community that we are now 7 months into the year, and we still have at least 4 outlets that are legitimate contenders for the Forecaster of the year title, with a 5th not far off the pace. On the strength of a strong summer, and another winning month in July, Accuweather has ensured that they are not to be forgotten, keeping pace with Weatherbug, The Weather Channel and Victoria-Weather. The National Weather Service was second, and showed that they aren’t out of this race yet either. Congratulations to Accuweather!

OutletForecast Wins
Weatherbug7.66
Accuweather5.83
Victoria-Weather5.5
The Weather Channel4.83
National Weather Service3.16
Forecast.io2.83
WeatherNation1.16

Hazy hills

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It’s been a summer of low air quality in the Boulder area, and this past weekend was no exception. The heat, however, was not as oppressive as it’s been, or certainly can be in the Front Range, which is a blessing to be sure. Forecasts that tended to the cool side of the mark did best, which typically leads to a win for Weatherbug, as it did this time around. Sunday was a warmer day than Saturday, by 10 degrees after it was surprisingly comfortable to begin the weekend. Still, 91 in the mountains is better than it could be. If only it didn’t smell like a campfire.
Actuals: Saturday – High 81, Low 63
Sunday – High 91, Low 61

Grade: A-C

Bloomington, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Let’s just keep piling on forecasts. Right now, let’s head to the home of my alma mater’s number 1 basketball rival, Bloomington, home of the (barf) Indiana Hoosiers.

At 153AM, ET, Bloomington was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 67 degrees. Indiana was enjoying a quiet night, however a weak warm front was proving active over Lake Michigan, with a cold front dangled through the Plains and touching off a broken line of severe weather west of the Mississippi. Dew points were in the 60s across Indiana, and ahead of any advancing showers or storms, Sunday will be humid.
The actual wet weather is going to take until early Monday morning, perhaps in the predawn, to arrive in Bloomington. The timing suggests storms will be rain producers, but won’t necessarily bear a severe threat. The boundary will be a fair sight weaker than it is showing tonight, and will disorganize before arriving. This means that Bloomington will likely have a threat for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the day as the region becomes modestly destabilized, rather than withstanding the sharp transition of a front.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some clouds building late. High 88, Low 67
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 89, Low 67
Monday – Scattered thunderstorms. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 83, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 90, Low 69
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the area; humid High 84, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 69
Monday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8am. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Monday – Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms, High 82, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 67
Monday – Partly cloudy iwth chance of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 66
Monday – Rain in the afternoon. High 85, Low 70

The weekend looks ok, but the workweek starts dreary. That qualifies as a good forecast, right?

Cool mountain air

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I admit that perhaps I don’t have a full comprehension of what Cleveland, Tennessee is like, but it seems as though many of our forecasting counterparts are in the same boat. Temperatures overnight, even in the dog days of summer, sure get comfortable! Low temperatures, closer to – and on Thursday lower than – 60 were well off the forecast mark. Showers and storms never reached the region, further bewildering many outlets. Two of the dry forecasters were at the top of the table, with Victoria-Weather following Forecast.io for the win.
Actuals: Thursday, High 91, Low 58
Friday – High 89, Low 60

Grade: C-D