Birmingham, Alabama

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Between the early start to tornado season and the exposure to hurricane season, Alabama is one of the more interesting places to forecast the weather. Undoubtedly, this is why James Spann, one of the more famous TV weatherpeople has built such a respected reputation, working in Birmingham. Perhaps we have an interesting forecast in our future?

At 1053PM, CT, Birmingham was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with overcast skies. There was weak ridging in the area tonight, helping to provide some stability, however a weakening disturbance over the Southern Plains is advancing to the east, and the attendant warm front runs through Tennessee. The rest of the energy will arrive in the late morning tomorrow, with light rain and an isolated rumble of thunder.
The back end of the energy lies well west of the precipitation that will begin tomorrow morning. Expect the coverage and intensity to pick up late tomorrow evening into Saturday morning. The tailing cold front will stall across central Alabama, leading to an ongoing threat of light rain to start the weekend. Fortunately, there is an area of surface high pressure behind the wave moving in overnight tonight, and the latter half of the weekend will be clearer.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 72, Low 58
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a smattering of light rain, High 75, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 70, Low 58
Saturday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Thunder possible. High 77, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 72, Low 60
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and warm High 75, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 59
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 72, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 70, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then sunny in the afternoon. High 74, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 72, Low 59
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 76, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 72, Low 58
Saturday – Light rain showers, High 77, Low 55

I think the response to the boundaries and clouds associated with this fairly quick moving system could really play havoc with this forecast. I should note that the low temperatures on Saturday are expected to occur at midnight leading to Sunday. The radar is showing off some showers, but few are reaching the ground….. yet.

A breach of protocol

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Generally, when I put together a verification, which this post is, I use WeatherforMe.com’s “closest NWS site” option. For Santa Cruz, that site is San Martin, 25 miles away from Santa Cruz, and crucially, on the other side of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Temperatures there at initial check were about 15 degrees warmer than forecasts, and another 5-10 degrees colder for overnights. I decided to opt for the road less traveled, and used a MADIS site in town. It was still warmer than expected, but not as egregiously so. The arrival of a feature on the West Coast had effectively drawn the low scud away from the coast and allowed high temperatures to infiltrate. High temps on the 8th and 9th were both warmer than anyone had in the forecast, but low temperatures lined up. Accuweather had the best forecast. Would they have if we verified against a completely different climate?
Actuals: November 8th, High 76, Low 51
November 9th, High 77, Low 53

Grade: B-C

October Forecaster of the Month

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We are through the month of October, and admittedly halfway through the month of November. Most of the weather headlines were from outside of the country, but that didn’t mean there wasn’t weather domestically as well. The National Weather Service ended up winning the month, and this somewhat busy month led to a very close contest. This is good news for us all! Good forecasts for everyone!

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 9.41
National Weather Service 9.41
Accuweather 6.83
Victoria-Weather 5.16
Clime 4.75
WeatherNation 3.41
Weatherbug 3

A beneficial deficiency

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The separator for our forecast today was one that I’m not sure I would have imagined. Temperatures in Greeley were very responsive to the wind, it seemed, which meant that the response to the clear skies was not to be had. On the 5th, temperaturs stopped dropping around 2AM, which meant that outlets with warmer lows ended up cleaning up. WeatherNation, therefore, cleaned up, earning a comfortable victory.
Actuals: November 4th, High 65, Low 34
November 5th, High 68, Low 37

Grade: A-C

Updates 11/17

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1:48PM: We discussed in our recent road trip forecast the threat for snow in the Sierras, and potential treachery around Truckee for unsuspecting drivers. Well, by the look of the current forecast from the WPC, there should no longer be unsuspecting drivers.

That’s a 70% chance of more than 4″ of snow through tomorrow morning in the high terrain along the California/Nevada border. Get the chains ready!

Santa Cruz, California to Provo, Utah

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I don’t have many examples of a road trip that starts in California that doesn’t take four or five days. We found one! It is only an 836 mile jaunt from Monterrey Bay to Provo, and will take us a day and a half. After we get to the free way, we will move pretty quickly, with an average speed of 65.8mph for the entire route. That means day one will target 526.6 miles, wherever that may lead.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Santa Cruz, California

Wouldn’t you know it, but the one area of the country with significant weather tomorrow is the West Coast. A pretty significant slug of rain is going to arrive in the Central Coast tomorrow morning. Heavy rain and California roadways are not a match made in heaven, and it will be torrential at times from Santa Cruz to Sacramento. Mudslides in this hilly terrain might be a concern. The angle that this disturbance will come on shore will also circumvent the highest of the Sierras. Sure, there will be some flakes around Truckee pass, but there still may be a few showers in northern Nevada. Fortunately, the terrain, while still prone to flash flooding and mudslides, is more forgiving and gives I-80 a wide birth. Most importantly, the rain will be a lot lighter in the Silver State. We will reach Primeaux, which is east of Winnemucca, as our waypoint.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
Our little feature from central California is going to merge with a larger waves coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. Showers are probably less likely in eastern Nevada, but as we approach the Wasatch, they become more likely again. Just for fun, it might be a bit snowy in the higher terrain of this particular range as well, though we will be driving at a lower elevation through Salt Lake City and south into Provo. Just a bit rainy, is all.

Provo, Utah

Not so spooky season

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At the end of October, the North Carolina Coastal Plains saw quite a bit of rain. Fortunately, it started to turn off right before Halloween. In Burlington, there was a trickle on the 30th, and most of it cleared out before the majority of people were awake. Then, on Halloween, it was even nicer, with clear skies and temperatures that rebounded into the 60s. A little chilly for an evening of trick-or-treating, but surely a fair sight better than many were probably expecting. Unless they were looking at the forecast from the Weather Service or Weather Nation, I guess, because those two knocked this forecast out of the park.
Actuals: October 30th, .06″ of rain, High 63, Low 49
Halloween – High 62, Low 39

Grade: A-C