Autumn is working its way into town tomorrow, according to astronomers (it’s been here since the 1st, according to meteorologists) and this time of year I’m either talking mostly about the tropics or about transitional systems bringing big storms or big changes to the Plains. This year, I’ve not had the need for either. For one thing, it’s been colder than normal to begin the month, so a fall like transition isn’t as notable. For another, the Atlantic is serving all of the tropical features (for now) to the north Atlantic.

With all of the various debates over the state of the climate and sea surface temperatures, the fact that the storms are churning in the Atlantic instead of the Caribbean shouldn’t quiet any of them. Another explanation is that storms are forming further east because of the warmth, and able to veer north early on in the life cycle because of the environment for storms to do so, caused by a warmer climate/sea surface.

Don’t misunderstand this as a good thing. The Caribbean and Gulf are still plenty warm, and conducive spots most of the late summer for tropical storms. It hasn’t happened yet because of prevailing flows and upper level factors. Really, the only debate we are avoiding with the dynamics of this tropical season is the one that forces on air meteorologists to decide on the namesake of the Gulf.

We are in the second half of the tropical season, and with only one storm in the month of September, things have gone our way, whatever the cause is. After many bad seasons in a row in the tropics, we were owed an easy one.

Even as hurricanes continue to avoid the US Mainland (the next watch area, even if it develops, is forecast to curl into the Sargasso Sea), storms have emerged at a pace not far off the pace of a typical season, or what hurricane forecasters had suggested at the outset of this season. The storms are, of course, a threat to maritime activity, but they also have an impact on the coast, even when storms aren’t making their landfalls. Sur

Hurricane Erin spun off the coast between Bermuda and the Carolinas, causing dangerous rip currents and some high waves and erosion on the Outer Banks. The storm induced swimming bans up through the mid-Atlantic, and forced dozens of rescues of swimmers.

Last week, hurricane Kiko travelled north of the Hawaiian Islands. This is not an unusual track for hurricanes to take, and it has helped the north shore of Oahu become known for its surfing environment. Kiko, even though it was weakening and tracking away from the Islands churned up a gnarly surf. The whole thing was discussed by Surfer.com, who also included this video.

They are called cold snaps, because they are over in a snap, just like heat waves are called that because they rise and fall. It’s been a while since we’ve enjoyed an extended period below normal, especially outside of winter, but naturally, that won’t be the long term trend.

A pool of cold air has dived south through the Plains and spread to the East Coast. The Mississippi Valley is seeing their coolest temperatures since March or April (and about a month too early), and the weekend will prove to be on the chilly side on the coast. The pattern will finally start to break, with a better formed trough shifting off shore, allowing warmer air in.

But still, that shift isn’t coming until Tuesday, and that is only in the Plains. Warmer air will start to return, but the surface ridge will wrap from New England the Gulf Coast, keeping a lot of the country dry, both in terms of rain, and lack of humidity. On the Coast, the below normal temperatures are going to last perhaps all week next week.

With all that said, we will be into mid-September, and yet, the monthly forecast still looks like this:

Even with that much time below normal, parts of the eastern 2/3rds of the US are above normal, and most of the region will be near normal, according to prediction from the CPC. Not only will the cold snap end, we can reasonably expect a course correction through the end of the month.