The end of the week was a stormy time for a great chunk of the country. And it all started popping off juuuuuuuust to the east of St. Joseph, Missouri, where the early afternoon on Friday brought a little bit of rain and a few gusts to start things off, but that was it. Well, almost. They also got the cold air behind the front. That’s where the real surprise came. St. Joseph reported a trace of snow late on Saturday. That was not on anyone’s bingo board. The National Weather Service had the top forecast for the storm kickoff. Actuals: Friday -.04 inches of rain, High 79, Low 57 Saturday – .04 inches of liquid in snow, High 59, Low 34
Were heading for the Panhandle as spring is beginning to emerge nationwide. A reminder that the Florida Panhandle is more aligned with the American Southeast than it is with Peninsular Florida, where the weather is concerned. Let’s see how that plays into the forecast.
At 1255AM, ET, Fort Walton Beach was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures dropped significantly just inland, and the warm air drifting ashore suggested the potential for some fog in the morning, especially with dew points nearly matching the air temperature. Strong low pressure in the Plains is belaboring the pattern, which would otherwise be counterintuitive, given the temperature dynamics. A strong trough in the Plains is going to allow surface low pressure to intensify and shift to the northeast, all the while pulling in more warm Gulf air to the Panhandle. The day tomorrow will be warm and humid, however a cold front will arrive in Fort Walton Beach early on Thursday, bringing a chance for some light showers and a notably cooler day to follow. Tomorrow – Warm with some morning haze, High 73, Low 59 Thursday – Morning showers, then clearing and cooler, High 66, Low 50
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 58 Thursday – Mostly sunny (Early rain), High 68, Low 52
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and pleasant; great day to be outside High 75, Low 57 Thursday – Sunny and windy (Early rain) High 68, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 55 Thursday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, (Early rain) High 67, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. (Late showers) High 72, Low 62 Thursday – Sunny cooler. Less humid (Early rain) High 67, Low 50
CLI: Tomorrow – Clear High 74, Low 56 Thursday – Sunny (Early rain) High 67, Low 46
Thursday, after the frontal passage, is expected to be non standard. Surprise! We have a bit of cloud debris collecting on the Mississippi Delta. Will this spread? I suspect it will.
Our forecast today takes us to the Central Valley of California, where the weather may not provide the reprieve you typically expect.
At 1253PM, Hanford was reporting a clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. Northern California, particularly at the higher terrain is under advisories for high wind and snow. At the lower terrain, a trough moving ashore from the Pacific Northwestern coast will carry a significant feature with it. The associated cold front will slide into central California with less fanfare, but will still introduce rain through the afternoon tomorrow. The moisture will linger through the morning with more drizzle and fog to start Tuesday. A cooler morning, thanks to clouds and a northerly flow will result. Expect snow to persist in the mountains northeast of town for much longer. High pressure builds in by the end of the day across California. Tomorrow – Rain likely in the afternoon, High 58, Low 45 Tuesday – Rain early, fog and clouds linger, High 60, Low 39
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain. High 55, Low 48 Tuesday – Sunny skies (early rain). High 62, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; cool; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour High 62, Low 50 Tuesday – Cool with clouds giving way to sun High 63, Low 39
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain before 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High 60, Low 49 Tuesday – Sunny High 62, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning then rain showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 48 Tuesday – Sunny (early rain). High 60, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain and isolated storms, High 57, Low 50 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 42
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 59, Low 48 Tuesday – Sunny, High 60, Low 39
Some differing opinions on the rain for central California, which opens the possibility of an interesting verification. Some clouds showing up to the north, a precursor to what’s coming.
We looked at Poughkeepsie, New York at the beginning of the week. The town was in a clear patch between two systems. The northern system was robbed of moisture by the southern feature, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS believed that Poughkeepsie would see dry skies, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS were correct. It was dry in the atmosphere on Tuesday, which led to a wider temperature delta than was expected. Scores weren’t great, but Accuweather earned a win. Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 29 Wednesday – High 48, Low 35
St. Joseph is up river along the Missouri from Kansas City, and are eying some potentially significant weather as the weekend approached. Lets join them in eying the weather.
At 1053PM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees. The unusual warmth was a precursor to a strong area of low pressure developing in the High Plains, and threatening a busy end to the week. The strong surface feature will occlude fairly quickly. Expect it to be warm in St. Joseph tomorrow, however the leading edge of thunderstorms will develop along I-35 – east of St. Joseph – around mid afternoon tomorrow, but the colder air is expected to lag behind. While strong thunderstorms are a possibility through much of Missouri, it is looking at this time that they will not bother St. Joseph. There is still a slight risk for severe storms, but most of the wet weather will be in the form of scattered showers in the evening. The leading edge of cold air will arrive in St. Joseph overnight, with a clearer and significantly cooler day on Saturday. Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms late, windy and starting to cool off in the evening, High 73, Low 57 Saturday – Clearing and colder, High 57, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with periods of thunderstorms later in the day. A few storms may be severe. High 78, Low 54 Saturday – Considerable cloudiness. high 54, Low 38
AW: Tomorrow – Winds becoming strong; very warm with times of clouds and sun, a strong afternoon thunderstorm; storms can bring damaging winds, large hail and even a tornado High 76, Low 55 Saturday – Windy and cooler with times of clouds and sun; strong winds can cause localized power outages; secure loose objects High 55, Low 37
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 58 Saturday – Partly sunny, (Showers before 1) High 58, Low 41
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. High 78, Low 57 Saturday – Partly sunny and breezy. High 57, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 78, Low 58 Saturday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 58, Low 41
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm High 78, Low 55 Saturday – Overcast High 55, Low 38
St. Joseph will get none of the noise from tomorrow’s storms, but will get the cold air behind it. The calm before storm, literally, is pretty calm.
February started cold, abnormally so, and waited to the end of the month to shake the chill. The Weather Channel, though, stayed hot the whole month, and ended up with a somewhat comfortable victory for the month.
Off to the races we go, with a very I-95 dependent journey north along the east coast. It will take two days, the first longer than the second, to cover the 909 miles between our two cities. That will equate to a pace of 64mph, which is probably going to be slowed by traffic. Our goal for night one is 514 miles, which is more than halfway there. Wait…. Does this route go through New Jersey?
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Hinesville, Georgia
A rainy area of low pressure that’s been bothering the southeast is finally off shore, and anyone driving the region tomorrow will enjoy pleasant conditions across the coastal Carolinas. We will pass into Virginia, and end the day on the north side of Richmond, in Ashland.
DAY TWO (Thursday) A weak wave is going to spin out of eastern Canada, into New England. There shouldn’t be enough moisture at the surface to impact the roads, but from about Baltimore onwards, expect an uptick in wind and a bit more overcast. It will be at the gloomiest as we reach Poughkeepsie.
1051AM We had a long lead to some severe weather last week, and we are in a similar scenario this week, but unlike last week, the threat is growing ominous the closer we get to the event. Friday and Saturday will offer some strong thunderstorms, starting in the Mississippi Valley on Friday, where there is already a 30% chance of severe weather, which suggests an enhanced or moderate risk is coming in future updates. Pay attention to this one.
130PM I should have noted in the earlier update that the outbreak looks to be multiple days. Saturday has a 30% bullseye over Alabama
Poughkeepsie is definitely a candidate for the Geography Spelling Bee competition that I am starting. I am guessing that this forecast will come easier than the correct spelling and pronunciation of the town.
At 1053AM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. It was warm across downstate New York and the surrounding areas, despite a northwest breeze, thanks to the sun this morning, and a split jet which is producing inclement weather to the south, but barricading cold air to the north. The wave to the north is bearing a weak area of low pressure through eastern Canada. the associated cool front will sweep through New England noiselessly tomorrow in the early afternoon, after which an area of high pressure will slide into the mid-Atlantic. as a result, expect a tame, pleasant albeit cooler middle of the week in Poughkeepsie. Tomorrow – Scattered clouds midday, High 65, low 37 Wednesday – Sunny and cooler, High 48, Low 35
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 33 Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (Late rain). High 51, low 33
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and warm; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity High 65, Low 31 Wednesday – Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 50, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 39 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 32
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 63, low 38 Wednesday – Partly sunny. Much cooler High 46, Low 38
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 40 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 34
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 35 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 31
The GFS is keeping a laggard band of precipitation behind the front that the main models have in place. The NAM doesn’t have much of anything, and given the system to the south, that seems more accurate. Sorry, Weather Channel. I don’t like your chances. I do like Weatherbug’s new user interface though! Very nice. Satellite shows a channel of sunny skies, right over Poughkeepsie,
