Tag Archives: Monroe

A strange temperature curve

Generally speaking, a day’s high temperature happens at one of two times: During the afternoon after maximum heating or at midnight as temperatures drop precipitously through the day behind an advancing cold front. In Monroe, Michigan on Sunday, they reached their high today at the most peculiar of times. At 5am, it was 59 degrees. By 530, it was 63 and 20 minutes later, just before 6am, they reached their high for the day at 64. An hour later, it was 54. That’s really strange. It was dictated entirely by the wind rotating around the massive system moving through the area. Monroe just happened to be near the triple point, so they were in the warm sector for an extremely brief period, bringing about the odd temperature pattern. Elsewhere in the forecast, the only issue was that snow didn’t fall, causing a few forecasters to have a little bit of egg on their face, and the rain ended before Saturday rolled around. If not for that little advective quirk, Vicoria-Weather would have had a great forecast. Instead, we will settle for merely “good”.
Actuals: Friday – Rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 37
Saturday – High 42, Low 32

Grade: B

Bangor, Maine to Monroe, Michigan

Our trip is a nice even two day trip. We will be covering almost exactly 1000 miles, but the first day will be a little bit shorter than the second, over after 484 miles. The pace is going to be a paltry 60.5mph thanks to some urbanized and toll road driving. Let’s head into the teeth of that massive storm, shall we?

DAY ONE
Bangor
Our first day will be surprisingly warm as we slice through New England. There could be a few morning clouds, but the warm air will help burn those off as the afternoon progresses. When we rise out of the Hudson Valley departing Albany, we will see trouble on the horizon. The cold front bearing down on the Great Lakes will arrive in Utica at about the same time we do. At that time, we should probably pull in and call it a night.

DAY TWO
It’s going to be a wild night in Utica as the front moves through town. Heavy rain and some gusty winds will rip through town as we settle in for the night, but should mostly be out of town by the time we are ready to hit the road on Saturday morning. There will be a few streams of clouds and maybe a rogue flurry between Buffalo and Rochester, and again from Buffalo to the Pennsylvania state line, As we continue west from there, however, things will start to clear out. It will be just like it was when we left Bangor. Except, you know, 20 degrees colder in Monroe.
MonroeMI,

Monroe, Michigan

Our travels take us to the shores of Lake Erie today. Monroe is Michigan’s largest city on Lake Erie.

At 814PM, ET, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with light rain. Most of lower Michigan was inundated with heavy rain, and though there was an area of weaker echoes around Monroe, it was certain to be a rainy night. The back edge of the rain was over Chicago, and the precipitation was training, meaning that the heavy rain in Indiana was sure to track over Monroe.
The cause of the deluge was a deep area of low pressure centered over Wisconsin that was tracking northeast. A slow moving cold front originated over northern Lower Michigan which served as a triple point within the system. Normally, this would mean a threat for severe weather, however with Michigan as worked over as it has been, there is virtually no risk. The front won’t clear eastern Michigan until tomorrow afternoon thanks to the track of the low, meaning rainfall between tonight and tomorrow will be measured in inches. An inverted trough that is a primary culprit in the snow on the back side of this system will angle towards Michigan even as the system departs. With the exiting moisture already in the area, this may lead to a stray flurry starting tomorrow night and lasting through the day Saturday. Even if the snow doesn’t come, the clouds surely will.
Tomorrow – Rain. Clearing and cooling late, High 58, Low 38
Saturday – Cloudy with a few snow showers early, High 43, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers / Wind High 68, Low 41
Saturday – Partly Cloudy High 50, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, windy and cooler; a little morning rain followed by a passing shower in the afternoon High 64, Low 40
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sun (snow early) High 50, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly before noon. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. (snow late) High 56, Low 39
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, (snow early) High 45, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Windy…cloudy. Light showers likely until noon…then a chance of light showers (snow late) High 57, low 39
Saturday – Cloudy (snow early) High 46, Low 34

Gross. Actually, TWC and AW have highs tomorrow that are warmer than the current temperature, which is a problem because they have midnight highs. Ooops. Here is a busy radar
Monroe

Monroe, Louisiana

Last night, Anthony took a look at Auburn, where rain was on its way out of town. It’s already out of Monroe, but what does the future hold?

At 953AM, CT, Monroe was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 37 degrees and winds gusting over 20mph. Satellite and surface observations indicate that the clearing line of clouds and bright sunshine lay along the Mississippi River, as Jackson was still immersed in clouds while most of Louisiana was clear, if cool.
High pressure will remain parked over the area through the weekend, but as has been the case for the latter half of the month, the pattern aloft has been that of a mean trough. The final sharp digging upper level trough will begin to descend into the southern Rockies and West Texas on Monday, signaling a change to southerly flow in northern Louisiana, which will bring in some warmer temperatures, as well as the chance for some rain on Monday night for anyone getting ready for the New Year. The real show will be Tuesday and Wednesday for most of the country, and the majority of the forecast period will be quite nice.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 23
Monday – Increasing clouds late, with some rain before midnight, High 54, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 52, Low 25
Monday – Showers High 54, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with sunshine mixing with some clouds High 53, Low 25
Monday – Mainly cloudy with a little rain late in the afternoon High 55, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 23
Monday – Rain, mainly after noon High 50, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly clear in the morning…then becoming partly cloudy.High 51, Low 25
Monday – Chance of light rain in the morning…then light rain in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 52, Low 33

Seems many have the rain coming in a little bit earlier than I do. The moral of the story is, it appears that New Years Eve plans should be done indoors. Satellite shows the current clearing line east of Monroe.
Monroe

Evansville, Indiana to Monroe, Michigan

We are covering as much of Indiana as possible. Of course, the easiest route is to take us through Ohio. It will be over 7 hours covering 442 miles, which adds up to 442 miles through Kentucky and Ohio. S lot of interstates along the way, but we will still putter away at anout 60mph.


We should start the day in pretty good shape, if a little toasty. There is a boundary moving through the Great Lakes, headed towards the Ohio Valley, but while we are actually along the Ohio River, we will be south of the rain. It’s when we make our turn towards Lake Erie that the weather will deteriorate. Rain and some embedded thunderstorms are expected for a lot of western Ohio after we pass north of Dayton. The best chance for a thunderstorm will arrive when we reach Monroe. Sightseeing has to wait until Wednesday.

Monroe, Louisiana to Benton Harbor, Michigan

Today we embark on a 851 jaunt northward from Monroe, LA to Benton Harbor, MI. Only a 2 day trip, and each day is pretty manageable.

DAY ONE

Some patchy dense fog is possible in the morning over the region with some scattered clouds, but shouldn’t be of any issue by the time we head on out mid-morning. High pressure is working it’s way over the MS River Valley, so unless you’re allergic to bright sunshine, the entire trip should be high and dry and easy-going. We stop in Sikeston, MO for the end of the 1st day.

DAY TWO

Some showers are possible over western Missouri, but are expected to linger off in that part of the state. Our route, however, is still under influence of high pressure! Pretty much the only headache we’ll encounter today will be getting through the traffic around around south Chicago. But we should make it through there during the early afternoon and avoid rush hour. Easy two-day trip!

The Monroe Doctrine

Sure, you can forecast all the dry air that you want in the southern US this time of year, but eventually, there will be scattered thunderstorms and one of them is bound to clip whatever town you are forecasting for. This was true in Monroe and our forecast from Saturday, where everyone said the chance for thunderstorms was low, but still slipped them in the forecast, because we all know better. In fact, a quarter inch of rain fell just before noon yesterday validating the mutually held concerns. The Weather Channel had the best forecast (again) thanks to their temperature forecast.

Actuals: Sunday – High 96, Low 76
Monday – .25inches of rain, High 92, Low 76

Grade: A

Monroe, Louisiana

We’re headed to the stormy southern US for our forecast on this Saturday afternoon.

At 1153AM, CT, Monroe was reporting heavy rain and a temperature of 82 degrees. Day time convection has quite obviously already begun in Monroe and across northern Louisiana, where thunderstorm activity was seen from Shreveport to Vicksburg, Mississippi and as far south as Alexandria. Storms had been quite heavy when they clip a town head on, as they were doing in Shreveport, though storms were exiting Monroe for the time being.
The lingering wind shift boundary lay in the midlevels just north of Monroe, providing a focal point for convection in northern Louisiana today. A weak tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico will draw a good deal of moisture towards it over the next couple of days, and the focus for heavier rains will shift to the southern half of the state. It would be foolish to leave out precipitation chances in the south this time of year, however for the next couple of days, the threat will be greatly reduced for thunderstorms in Monroe.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with a low chance for some showers and storms, High 95, Low 74
Monday – Mostly sunny again, with showers and storms primarily south of town, High 93, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 94, Low 76
Monday – Isolated thunderstorms. High 92, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 96, Low 75
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 96, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 93, Low 75
Monday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 93, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 75
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 75

See? Lower than usual chances for storms in Monroe, and everyone is going about 30% down there. Here is the active radar. Looks like a healthy storm in Shreveport.