About that slow hurricane season

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It’s been a pretty tame North Atlantic season thus far. The most headline grabbing feature thus far was Emily, a strong storm to be sure, with the greatest impact a dangerous surf seen along the Eastern Seaboard. This has been perpetuated by Fernand, currently churning in the western Atlantic. We are to late August, just a couple of weeks from the traditional peak of the season, and that is as wild as it has been.

Last year unleashed a torturous season, with hurricanes Helene and Milton doing damage in the southeastern US after Beryl had slogged through the Texas coast earlier in the season. Perhaps, with those names, you already recognize where I am going with this line of thought. Obviously, Helene – H and Milton – M, would come after where we are at with Fernand – F. Things can still get busy! That’s true, but also not the full point I was preparing to make.

At this point last year, Francine, 2024’s F storm, was still a month out. By this point in the year, 2024 had one fewer storm than we do in 2025. Certainly, there is a lot of season left to go, but also, 2025 hasn’t been abnormally slow, either.

The true assessment of a busy or not busy season will come at the end of the year, after we see where and with what intensity storms arrive on the coast. Since the news cycle hasn’t been overwhelmed by stories of landfalling hurricanes, we haven’t really thought about any tropical weather. That may change, perhaps not. Whatever the case, the Atlantic basin sure hasn’t been quiet this summer.

It’s a …. heat

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One could interpret my headline in two different ways. The … representing a gap where one might typically say a “dry” heat, but it wasn’t that in Midland during our forecast period. Nor was it obnoxiously humid, with dew points dipping into the 50s overnight. Or, you could interpret it as a heat, as in a dead heat, because three outlets drew level this time around. The Weather Channel, Weather Service AND WeatherNation ended with the same score. Two forecasts down this month, and two results with a 4 way then a 3 way tie.
Actuals: August 14th, High 99, Low 74
August 15th, High 96, Low 78

Grade: A=B

July Forecaster of the Month

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Yes, we are pretty deep into August, but it’s been a somewhat active summer on the family front, so the gears at Victoria-Weather are moving a bit slowly. It’s been a busy summer, but not in the tropics. and the severe weather has been related, largely, to heavy precipitation this year. Perhaps partly because of the dynamics of the season, and certainly because of their skill in general, The Weather Channel is having a very strong stretch, and this year just keeps getting better for them.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 7
National Weather Service 6.33
Accuweather 5
Clime 3.5
Weatherbug 3
Victoria-Weather 2.83
WeatherNation 2.33

Everyone is invited!

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It was a hot time in Pine Bluff on the 7th and 8th of the month. Of course, that is when we put together our forecast for the city, one that resulted in temperatures in the mid to upper 90s during the day, and temps that wouldn’t cool out of the mid 70s overnight. Uncomfortable, to be sure, but all outlets were pretty comfortable with each other’s forecast. There was a 4 way tie at the top, and only three degrees of difference separating top and bottom. It was The Weather Channel, Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime all conglomerating at the top.
Actuals: August 7th, High 94, Low 73
August 8th, High 97, Low 76

Grade: B-C

Fort Collins, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Having some minor (I hope) server issues today at Victoria-Weather HQ. That shouldn’t change the weather in Fort Collins, though, right? What can we expect in Northern Colorado this weekend?

At 956AM, MT, Fort Collins was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies and a brisk north wind. There is a bit of shower activity across northern Colorado is associated with a cold front appended to an area of low pressure in western Ontario. A leading trough has switched winds to northerly across Fort Collins, but the boundary remained just to the north in southern Wyoming. Shower activity is largely found in the mountains west of Fort Collins and Cheyenne, though there will be some light activity as the day wears on, lasting into the morning tomorrow.
As the area of low pressure moves on to the east, high pressure will build in the Plains. In the southwest, warm air will begin to build again, and a laminar flow over the Rockies will lead to a down-slope and lee troughing in the Colorado flatlands. The contrast in air mass will lead to some ridge-riding thunderstorms in eastern Colorado by Sunday, but guidance and intuition suggest that the bulk of the activity will be south of the Palmer Divide, leaving Fort Collins mostly unbothered, but late in the period some activity could press into the area.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers, especially early, High 74, Low 60
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated thunder late High 80, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late High 78, Low 61
Sunday – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 75, low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds breaking for some sun with a thunderstorm in one or two spots High 76, Low 60
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon High 76, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 75, low 59
Sunday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 79, low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 72, Low 60
Sunday – Thunderstorms likely. High 74, low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 75, low 59
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and scattered storms, High 79, Low 58

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 76, Low 60
Sunday – Thunderstorm, high 78, low 56

Count me in the “not likely” camp on Sunday thunderstorms. Everything right now just looks like it will show up too far to the south. Not today though, here is radar imagery, with showers heading in from Wyoming.

Marine Layer consistency

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It gets hot and stays hot in the central valleys of California, but when you are butted up against the coast, on the west side of the Coastal Range, and without a corridor of wind form the Great Basin, it stays fairly cool, with clouds and sometimes, but not in the case of San Luis Obispo, a stray shower within the fog. Like I said, it was dry, and quite comfortable for our forecast at the end of July into the beginning of August. The Weather Service and WeatherNation drew level for the forecast, and anyone who strayed too far from the mid-70s ended up looking foolish.
Actuals: July 31st, High 75, Low 56
August 1st, High 73, Low 54

Grade: A – D

Updates 8/18

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6:47PM: It’s a pretty quiet stretch out west, even in the Rockies, where we might reasonably expect some afternoon thunderstorm activity this time of year. Instead, we are seeing the Rockies work as a pretty formidable dry line. As the jet shifts back up to the north a little bit, don’t be surprised to see some activity return to the mountains. That could happen as soon as Wednesday, and would also coincide with the Great Lakes finally drying out. (Not the lakes, but the towns surrounding them).

1130PM: There is a pretty gnarly looking cluster of thunderstorms, that, if nothing else, is producing a heck of a lot of lightning in the Clovis, New Mexico area. It would be jarring for a lot of places, but this qualifies as run of the mill for this time of year in this part of the country. Do they sleep along the Texas/New Mexico border?

Pine Bluff, Arkansas to Midland, Texas

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This drive has all the elements of what I think makes a good road trip. It will take one long day, following only a couple of interstates. There is one major metro area to drive through, but also a long stretch in the open country. It will take nearly 10 hours to cover the 658 miles between our two destinations, covering the ground at a pace of 66.2mph. Hopefully traffic in Dallas-Fort Worth is forgiving.

Pine Bluff, Arkansas

Arkansas is going to be downright juicy on Thursday. Humidity will see dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and while guidance suggests most of the rain and thunder will be from Mississippi eastward, I wouldn’t rule it out during our drive to Texarkana. In fact, I would venture to say that the heavy atmosphere might lend itself to a stray storm as far west as Mount Vernon, Texas. The dew points will relent a bit west of Dallas, but the heat will still be there all the way in to Midland.

Midland, Texas

Midland, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Midland, despite it’s name, is not really in the middle of anything, except, perhaps “nowhere”. Fairly isolated in west Texas, save for a proximity to Odessa. Let’s see if they can look forward to anything more than dust.

At 353PM, CT, Midland was reporting a temperature of 96 degrees with fair skies. Midland was northwest of the dry line, with a dew point in the upper 50s, compared to the dew point in Brownwood and Stephenville, which sat in the 70s. A local eddy was still producing some showers behind the primary dry line, notably over the southeastern corner of New Mexico.
The trough related showers and storms over the High Plains will become less active as a storm system in the Canadian Prairie moves towards the northern Great Lakes. Onshore flow from the Gulf will still be present, and showers will be likely over south Texas, but the end of the work week should be dry in Midland.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 74
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 74
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, High 97, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, hot with sunshine mixing with some clouds; High 100, Low 75
Friday – Breezy and very warm with periods of clouds and sunshine High 99, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 74
Friday – Sunny, High 97, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 97, Low 76
Friday – Sunny, High 94, Low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 74
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 76

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 98, Low 74
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 97, Low 75

Those showers in New Mexico dissipated before I took the image of the satellite. But storms in Texas are still roaring tonight, not threatening Midland at all.