Severe season strikes hard, early

It’s certainly not unheard of to have severe weather in March. In fact, it’s pretty standard for the first major spring storms to start appearing as early as mid-February nowadays. If there has been anything strange, it is that the storms haven’t been as problematic for Mississippi and Alabama, frequent targets for early season outbreaks.

This past week has featured deadly tornadoes in both Oklahoma and Michigan. Both locales are certainly accustomed to severe weather, but these outbreaks and the deaths because of them speak to the fickle nature of severe weather, rather than the particular strength of the storms in question.

In Oklahoma, there were two days of tornado related fatalities. The first came on the 5th, when a mother and daughter were killed in their vehicle in the northwestern part of the state. The guilty cell was an isolated supercell tracked from the Texas Panhandle

The storms were more widespread on the 6th, with storms, including a fatal storm in the Tulsa area. Certainly, it was unfortunate that such a storm would batter a large population center like this. Even more unfortunate was what looks like a single long track cell that went directly from Edwardsburg, Michigan to Three Rivers, Michigan to Union City, Michigan, doing this: along the way:

This storm claimed the lives of six in southwest Michigan. Aside from this cell, there were no other severe reports in Michigan. This goes to the seasonal reminder that not every tornado is in an outbreak, but all tornadoes can be dangerous. The highest threat level for those days was an “enhanced” risk in the southern Plains, while much of Michigan was labeled as marginal. It’s a reminder for added vigilance when storms are in the forecast, in case the 1 in 10 chance hits, and there are tornadoes, and your home or route is within the quarter mile width of the looming storm.

We do have more storms ahead. It is that time of year, when cold Canadian air is hanging on across the Plains, but the Gulf has started to pump heat and humidity back to the north. Our conflict zone tomorrow, will be from the Great Lakes to the Big Bend of Texas. There are enhanced risk zones at either end of the forecast thunderstorms. Be careful.

Updates 3/9

8:43AM: Not to be alarmist or any thing, but there is light rain approaching San Diego this morning 😮

10:31AM: IT IS RAINING IN SAN DIEGO

METAR KSDM 091453Z 00000KT 9SM -RA OVC075 13/10 A2990 RMK AO2 RAE1354B20 SLP122 P0001 60001 T01280100 51016

1:02PM: Oh, I did want you all to know: There will be a post later today, and it will probably not be specific to California.

9:47PM: The storms are coming tomorrow for the Plains and Great Lakes. but tonight, storms are winding down in the southeast, just where we would expect them to be this time of year.

11:55PM, Late night random thought: The Weather Channel has proven to be successful because they got the weather part of it right first. Even on the back end, they’ve been right more often than others lately. They have reinvested in clear communication. Like them or not, they are good at what they do.

February Forecaster of the Month

It was a light posting month here at the Weather Blog, but the weather has still been wild. Fortunately, after two months, a clear cut, reliable forecaster has emerged. Two for two, The Weather Channel has won again.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 2.5
Accuweather 1
WeatherNation 1
National Weather Service 0.5
Clime  
Victoria-Weather  
Weatherbug  

Updates 3/7

10:17AM: March is definitely the weather’s silly season. There were severe storms, as the SPC called for. The deadliest storms were a series of tornadoes in southwest Michigan that claimed four lives and injured several more while moving through commercial and residential areas of Three Rivers and Union City.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, we awoke to fresh snow.

8:27PM: Everyone I know in the north is celebrating the potential 60s tomorrow. It’s great that they are even coming on the weekend, but be aware that cooler air is returning from the west at, oh, about 50mph.

Updates 3/6

5:00PM: Severe weather is breaking out in the Plains again today, so please be sure to monitor your local weather service and stations. Elsewhere, things have returned to “nearly perfect” in southern California, save for some high winds in the hills north of Los Angeles. Thankfully, normal moisture has returned, and this wind isn’t coupled with a fire threat.

San Diego, California

Our next couple of forecasts are going to be in California. Very recently, the Golden State has seen some significant weather, but will that return any time soon?

At 1151AM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. After some patches of rough weather earlier in the month, Southern California was back to living up to its reputation as a sunny, warm destination.
On satellite, there is an obvious area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific that is trying to fold into the upper level jet pattern. It will weaken in the famously inhospitable to synoptic features eastern Pacific, but will arrive in northern California late on Saturday, with an associated cool front stirring things up a bit in San Diego, though failing to bring anything but fresher air by late Sunday.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 60
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 78, Low 56
Sunday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 74. Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and warm High 77, Low 57
Sunday – Pleasant with sunshine and a few clouds High 73, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 61
Sunday – Sunny, High 78, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 81, Low 63
Sunday – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 81, Low 61
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 77, Low 58

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 70, Low 57

Well, well, well. That is certainly an interesting array of forecasts, isn’t it? Wind flow and cloud cover are going to be quite impactful, but things are weird if there is a warm/cold divide and Weatherbug shows up on the warm side. Satellite looks great, with that low over the Pacific making its presence known.

Underdelivered

At the beginning of February, we looked at the forecast in Janesville. From outlet to outlet, there were varying degrees of snow in the forecast for the 6th, from flurries to Clime calling for heavy snow. There certainly was snow in Wisconsin on that Friday, but none of it was reported in Janesville. It came down to temperatures, as it often does. The cool down was particularly well forecast across the board, however the warmth ahead of the snow was underestimated, leading to widespread forecast error. The real issue was how much the temperatures would cool that night, which meant that the warmest low temperature forecast ended up winning the entire forecast. The Weather Channel was the winner.
Actuals: February 6th, High 40, Low 18
February 7th, High 24, Low 9

Grade; C

January Forecaster of the Month

January was a return to winters of yore. It was cold, there was snow all the way down to Florida and nobody was happy with any of it. Winter is back, baby! On top of that return to normal, we had a return to normal in our forecast champions: The Weather Channel was the top forecaster to start 2026.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 1.5
Accuweather 1
National Weather Service 0.5
Clime  
Victoria-Weather  
Weatherbug  
WeatherNation