Denver, Colorado

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We’ve managed a few trips to Colorado recently. The weather is always interesting there, so I have no complaints. How does the end of the week look in the Mile High City?

At 253PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees and partly cloudy skies. A westerly flow in the Rockies was producing a few showers in the higher terrain, but a dew point of 38 dried everything out before it could reach the ground in town. High pressure is moving southward along the Front Range, and should lead to a fairly decent time on Friday.
An area of low pressure in the Great Lakes is tailing a cold front into the southern part of the state, where a few showers are found. A jet trough will dive through the Prairies over the next couple of days, with a brisk westerly flow across the Rockies into the trough. This will lead to locally warm flow and an inversion at the surface. This could make Saturday a bit on the grey/grimy side.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 68, Low 54
Saturday – Hazy and smoky, but warmer, High 79, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 56
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 82, Low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with sun and areas of high clouds High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Mainly cloudy High 81, Low 49

NWS- Partly sunny High 73, Low 54
Saturday – A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 50

WB – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny with a 10 percent chance of showers. High 81, Low 54

WN – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 50

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49

Well, this precipitation forecast got more interesting than I anticipated. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. I expect a lot of it will revolve around drizzle within the mist in the early mornings, rather than the stuff we see in the Plains tonight.

It was too good to be true

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It seemed like a little bit cooler air was going to settle in early to southwestern Oklahoma. There was a chance for a little bit of rain over the holiday weekend, but it was still plenty warm. Saturday was he winning day in Lawton, with dry skies and a cooler temperature that came on Sunday. There wsan’t much rain, just a drizzle, and it came with temperatures that were back up in the upper 80s. It’s what you should expect in Lawton, but it’s still disappointing when the forecast was for something a bit cooler. Accuweather had the warmest forecast and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 81, Low 70
Sunday – .02″ of rain, High 88, Low 69

Grade: A-C

August Forecaster of the Month

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Things were closely fought this month, with most forecasts resulting in ties, including one that was a 4 way draw. The winner, therefore, was barely better than the rest, but given how strong they have been this year, it’s another notch in the belt for The Weather Channel. Congratulations!

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 8.08
National Weather Service 6.91
Accuweather 5.5
Clime 3.75
Weatherbug 3
WeatherNation 2.91
Victoria-Weather 2.83

Lawton, Oklahoma to Atlantic City, New Jersey

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

I have a NASCAR race on in the background, which makes me think that we can cover the 1,529 miles of this trip in no time. Really, though, let’s play it cool and instead make the drive in about 3 days, leaving the third day the shortest. and drive at a safe speed of 68mph, and about 547 miles a day. We will save our poor choices for Atlantic City.

DAY ONE (Monday)

Lawton, Oklahoma

There is an eroding dry line that is washing out in the central Plains. This is producing some showers from about the Oklahoma City area to Springfield, Missouri, and there is no reason to think that this instigator will move much tomorrow. It likely won’t be as widespread as it is today. I would say the best threat will be in the higher terrain around the Ozarks, but should be fully wrapped up before we reach Sullivan, MO. Definitely before we hit Fenton, on the southwest side of St. Louis and our destination for the night.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
Our weak trough is going to start to consolidate and turn around over night. It’s going to shift towards the Tennessee Valley, which should keep it juuuuuust far enough south to keep us dry for the day. There will be a few dark clouds dappling the sky as we continue east, and they will probably linger thorughout the day. Aside from maybe a sprinkle early in the morning as we pass through St. Louis, I think we are probably OK. The best bet for another shot of rain, albeit low, will come in the last couple of hours, from Columbus to Bannock, which is just outside of Wheeling, and our destination for the night.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
That same trough will waste itself on the Appalachians and spread along the range. There will be some splashes of rain, particularly on the western faces of the range for the first part of the day. We’ll have rain through about Bedford, after which point the weak system will have a tough time transcending the Appalachians. The sun will be shining in Atlantic City when we pull in.

Atlantic City, New Jersey

Atlantic City, New Jersey

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

After bouncing around the middle of the country recently, we will now head to the East Coast, where we will probably see things like “the Gulf Stream” mentioned a few times.

At 454PM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. There is a thatch of clouds over Delaware Bay, associated with an upper level trough. There is a jet streak over the western Atlantic, but surface high pressure is keeping things rain free in the mid-Atlantic.
There is a bit of moisture in the middle of the country that will struggle to ascend the Appalachians. Low pressure following the Gulf Stream is moving at the eastern periphery of coler air, and the northerly flow in New Jersey will keep the region unseasonably cool.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 73, Low 60
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 74, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and windy; a nice afternoon for outdoor activities High 74, Low 62
Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 64
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 63

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 59

Looks like south Jersey is in for a good Labor Day. Clouds entering the area are high, and not as threatening as they might look.

Lawton, Oklahoma

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Lawton is home to Fort Sill, which also gives us most of the population. The town is in the southwest part of the state, which leaves it in a dryer patch of land this late in the summer.

At 353PM, CT, Lawton was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 77 degrees. Dew points were also in the upper 60s, making for a rather soupy afternoon. The tail of a cool front was triggering some thunderstorms in Texas, and westerly flow over the Rockies was contributing to a particularly vigorous dry line, leading to severe weather in the Colorado Plains. All the while, an upper level ridge is keeping Oklahoma dry, if a bit on the cloudy side.
As the upper level jet streak shifts further to the east, it will weaken greatly. The dry line will press east as well, but without as much momentum. The threat of showers and storms will arrive in southern Oklahoma on Sunday morning. The associated boundary will continue to weaken, and there won’t be any organized shower activity. As the afternoon wears on, the threat will lessen as the former dry line mixes out. The extra clouds will keep temperatures moderated.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 69
Sunday – Scattered showers, mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late High 80, Low 68
Sunday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with a shower in places; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon High 81, Low 69
Sunday – Humid with sun and some clouds; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 86, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms High 78, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 79, Low 69

WN – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 80, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly cloudy scattered showers and chance of storms, High 83, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 79, Low 67
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 84, Low 69

It looks like a pretty good holiday weekend is coming up for southwest Oklahoma. Spots of rain, but temperatures are manageable. Not so bad on satellite this afternoon.

Nonsense

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Chalk one up for the Front Range. Fort Collins’ forecast didn’t quite go as anticipated. Most notably, after a cold front moved through Friday into Saturday, temperatures… climbed into the low 80s. Then, the day when westerly flow arrived with the next feature (Sunday) the expected warm downslope flow was actually cool. Temperatures dropped nearly 10 degrees. Weatherbug was 10 degrees off on their high temperature on Saturday. They missed out on first place by 1 degree. Does that paint the picture for you? The Weather Channel and Accuweather converged at the top.
Actuals: Saturday: .01″ of rain, High 82, Low 64
Sunday: .07″ of rain, High 74, Low 58

Grade: C-D

About that slow hurricane season

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It’s been a pretty tame North Atlantic season thus far. The most headline grabbing feature thus far was Emily, a strong storm to be sure, with the greatest impact a dangerous surf seen along the Eastern Seaboard. This has been perpetuated by Fernand, currently churning in the western Atlantic. We are to late August, just a couple of weeks from the traditional peak of the season, and that is as wild as it has been.

Last year unleashed a torturous season, with hurricanes Helene and Milton doing damage in the southeastern US after Beryl had slogged through the Texas coast earlier in the season. Perhaps, with those names, you already recognize where I am going with this line of thought. Obviously, Helene – H and Milton – M, would come after where we are at with Fernand – F. Things can still get busy! That’s true, but also not the full point I was preparing to make.

At this point last year, Francine, 2024’s F storm, was still a month out. By this point in the year, 2024 had one fewer storm than we do in 2025. Certainly, there is a lot of season left to go, but also, 2025 hasn’t been abnormally slow, either.

The true assessment of a busy or not busy season will come at the end of the year, after we see where and with what intensity storms arrive on the coast. Since the news cycle hasn’t been overwhelmed by stories of landfalling hurricanes, we haven’t really thought about any tropical weather. That may change, perhaps not. Whatever the case, the Atlantic basin sure hasn’t been quiet this summer.

It’s a …. heat

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

One could interpret my headline in two different ways. The … representing a gap where one might typically say a “dry” heat, but it wasn’t that in Midland during our forecast period. Nor was it obnoxiously humid, with dew points dipping into the 50s overnight. Or, you could interpret it as a heat, as in a dead heat, because three outlets drew level this time around. The Weather Channel, Weather Service AND WeatherNation ended with the same score. Two forecasts down this month, and two results with a 4 way then a 3 way tie.
Actuals: August 14th, High 99, Low 74
August 15th, High 96, Low 78

Grade: A=B