I was talking to someone in St. Louis today, and he was lamenting how gray it has been for a couple of days now. I lamented the same to him, here in the Twin Cities. What do you know, Cedar Rapids is right between the two! To be fair, Tuesday was sunny in Cedar Rapids, and likely felt pretty OK in the sun. The sun was not to be found on Wednesday, though, replaced by clouds, afternoon rain and cooler temperatures. Forecasts for Cedar Rapids turned out pretty well, none better than Accuweather’s. Actuals: Tuesday – High 51, Low 31 Wednesday – .11 inches of rain High 48, Low 36
Midland used to be the Weather Forecast Office that I would think about when thinking of severe thunderstorms, but in recent years, that focus has certainly shifted eastward. In mid-November, though, Midland could still provide a few forecast thrills.
AT 953AM, ET, Midland was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. An upper level ridge is parked over the Mississippi Valley, and sitting on the western flank of this ridge is allowing west Texas to remain comfortable and dry. A weak but active boundary east of the Mississippi is pushing most of the moisture in the middle of the country well away from the Lone Star State. The upper level ridge will only work to get broader while a sharply angled trough in the western US will begin to get stronger flow through it. This will lead to an increase in warm air for Midland, however the narrow but strong wave will have a difficult time translating eastward. The beginning of the weekend will be warm and pleasant for west Texas, if a bit breezy. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 47 Saturday – Sunny with a bit of a breeze, High 82, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 79, Low 47 Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 81, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy and pleasant High 76, Low 47 Saturday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 80, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 49 Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 56
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 47 Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 50 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 56
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 48 Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 81, low 54
Well, that is sure a pleasant forecast, isn’t it? Let’s just say it is probably good this forecast stops at Saturday. For now, the satellite is basically a picture of Texas.
After toiling in the Midwest pretty regularly of late, we are going to head out west, and the state capital of the Silver State. What’s up, Carson City?
At 1235PM, PT, Carson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees. An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest was directing a cold front through the Sierras. There was precipitation on the western faces of the mountains, and blustery winds over the mountains and through the eastern slopes, including Carson City, where wind speeds were gusting to 30mph. The trough off the west coast is going to remain in place for the foreseeable future, which means the low in the area is going to recycle, and flow will continue from the west into California and eventually western Nevada. The moisture won’t be robust, so it will struggle to breach the mountains until the trough itself is able to move into the Great Basin. Thursday will continue to see some patch cloudiness, but Friday will see the introduction of some light rain with a possible snowy mix into the forecast. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 50, Low 36 Friday – Chance of light showers, mixing with snow, High 45, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 51, Low 33 Friday – Mainly cloudy. A shower of rain or wet snow possible High 40, Low 30
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in places; cool High 52, low 29 Friday – Cloudy and colder High 43, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow -A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 10am. Snow level 5700 feet rising to 6200 feet in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, High 53, Low 29 Friday – Snow, mainly before 4pm. High 42, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning and then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow, High 50, Low 32 Friday – Snow likely, High 41, Low 28
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 52, Low 31 Friday – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 42, Low 28
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 51, Low 29 Friday Heavy snow showers, High 44, low 27
It wasn’t well modeled in Champaign over the weekend, but perhaps it should have been more closely monitored. Temperatures after a weak cold front moved through overnight Saturday into Sunday fell off fairly quickly Sunday night. I think most of us anticipated more clouds, or simply weren’t in on guidance’s plans, so Sunday lows were too warm, across the board. Also off were the precipitation forecasts for a couple of outlets. It did continue to rain on Sunday morning, nearly a quarter inch, which Accuweather and Clime didn’t have in their forecast. This hurt Accuweather the most, as it cost them victory for the day, instead handing it to us, Victoria-Weather. Actuals: Saturday, .43 inches of rain, High 56, Low 44 Sunday .2 inches of rain, High 67, Low 43
I don’t know what to tell you, except that the algorithm has decided to provide a bevy of eastern Iowa forecasts lately. A bevy in eastern Iowa is, of course, two.
At 352PM, CT, Cedar Rapids was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. A cool north-northwest wind dominated eastern Iowa, A large area of high pressure was seated at the center of the country, however unlike some of the summer ridges we’ve contended with this year, this ridge will be transient, and the upper level pattern is active. The ridge won’t be shifting out of the region by tomorrow, with warmer flow from the south riding a bit of a breeze. The next trough coming out of the Rockies will dislodge the ridge, and bring a modestly active line of showers with a few embedded storms to Cedar Rapids on Wednesday evening. The sharp trough is tightening and directing the low through Illinois on Wednesday. Expect cooler temperatures to wait to start intruding until early Thursday as clouds and light rain continue even through midnight, while breezy accompany the passage of the low. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 30 Wednesday – Rain and embedded thunder in the evening, High 52, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful sunshine. High 51, Low 29 Wednesday – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 53, Low 37
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and breezy High 50, Low 31 Wednesday – Variable cloudiness with showers; breezy High 50, Low 36
NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 48, Low 29 Wednesday – Showers, mainly after noon. High 51, Low 37
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 35 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon, High 49, Low 41
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 29 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with showers, High 48, Low 37
CLI: Tomorrow – Clear, High 49, Low 30 Wednesday – Rain Showers, High 51, Low 37
At some point, with a lack of clouds, it’s more of a map than a weather product, right?
Weather information receivers, the general public, expects perfection for their specific spot every time. That said, everyone had forecast for rain in the Quad Cities on Saturday. We knew in spots it would be heavy, and nearly everyone called that out. The Upper Mississippi Valley indeed saw some showers, but it was only .06″ worth of rain in Davenport, though places around there saw more. Is it a problem, then, that they didn’t see more in Davenport, when most outlets suspected it? Probably for some people. Not for me, either. The Weather Channel had the top forecast. Actuals: Friday – High 65, Low 35 Saturday .06″ of rain, High 54, Low 41
We’re headed southeastward to start the work week. Getting into the middle of November, a trek to the beach might be a good idea. It will take two days to get from Illinois to the Treasure Coast, covering 1162 miles. That will cover nearly 70 miles an hour, and we will over 554 miles on our first day, leaving a longer day for Tuesday. Beach day!
DAY ONE (Monday)
Champaign, Illinois
Low pressure in the Great Lakes has hooked up with the remnants of Rafael at this point, which is slowing the eastward traffic down a bit. By the time we get going on Monday morning, it will have dried out in east Central Illinois, and will be dry, if with some patchy clouds, for our route. The tail of the cold front, fused to the remnants of Rafael, will stall through Georgia, bringing about some mid to lower level overcast through the Smokey Mountains as we pass through Chattanooga. The day will conclude in Calhoun, just north of Atlanta.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) That low in the Gulf will refuse to go away, but will get forced apart by a burgeoning ridge of high pressure in the eastern two thirds of the country. The low moving out of the Great Lakes will be safely off in the Canadian Maritimes, and our drive on Tuesday to Sebastian will be done with very good conditions, save for all those Florida drivers to worry about.
We’ll head to America’s Heartland for our weekend forecast. Champaign is the home of the University of Illinois, school with a good meteorology program, and rivals of my Purdue Boilermakers.
At 1053AM, ET, Champaign was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies. High pressure was seated over the Great Lakes, thanks to a shortwaved ridge riding the greater jet structure. This means that while it is sunny in east central Illinois, it is also fairly cool. A perturbation moving out of the base of the mean trough is starting to send some high clouds into the area. While it is cool and calm right now, a couple of features, the remnants of Rafael in the Gulf and the perturbation in the trough poise to make the weekend a bit less pleasant. Rising moisture out of the Gulf will carry with it some additional warmth tomorrow. The well wound system in the center of the country is rapidly occluding, but is generally well organized enough to transfer airmasses, and send some worthwhile cold air into Champaign behind the cold front tomorrow evening. This will allow the murky shower and perhaps isolated thundershower activity not to overstay its welcome. Clearing will come by the end of the day on Sunday. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with rain in the afternoon and evening. An isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. High 58, Low 40 Sunday – Rain early, then clearing and warmer with sunlight, High 63, Low 49
TWC Tomorrow – Cloudy skies (Late rain), High 59, Low 40 Sunday – Sun and a few passing clouds (Early rain) High 64, Low 52
AW: Tomorrow – Increasing cloudiness (Late rain)High 60, Low 41 Sunday – Breezy and pleasant with periods of clouds and sun High 62, Low 46
NWS: A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 40 Sunday – A 40 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 49
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 60, Low 42 Sunday – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers in the morning, High 62, Low 49
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 58, Low 39 Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 62, Low 52
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 58, low 40 Sunday – Sunny, High 63, low 52
It’s going to be active and wet this weekend, though not a complete drencher. Still, if it is going to be this cool, it’s pretty gross. Clouds are already filtering in across the region.
Davenport is the largest of the Quad Cities, lying on the border with Illinois. You would think the Quad Cities would have more people than the Twin Cities, right? One of life’s mysteries.
At 1252PM, CT, Davenport was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies. After a tumultuous beginning to the week, the clearer skies were a welcome change of pace. High pressure has developed over the western Great Lakes, and will keep the Quad Cities dry through the rest of the work week. The trough that had lingered in the western US for nearly a week is beginning to wither, but not before one last system generates in the southern Plains. This system will begin to move to the northeast through Friday as a tightly wound, organized feature, but as the upper level pattern loses focus, so too will the surface feature. Hurricane Rafael will also be winding down in the Gulf of Mexico around this time, but will lend some of his leftover moisture to the Plains feature, so even if there aren’t strong storms, there will be a a healthy dose of rain on Saturday afternoon and evening. The system will linger through the evening, leaving a dreary night in the Quad Cities. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 38 Saturday – Rain, heavy at times in the afternoon, and mostly cloudy with drizzle in the evening, High 53, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 62, low 36 Saturday – Cloudy with occasional showers for the afternoon High 55, low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 61, Low 39 Saturday – Cloudy and cooler, turning breezy with periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 55, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, High 60, Low 35 Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers after noon. Partly sunny, High 57, Low 39
WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Sunny, High 55, Low 40 Saturday – Partly sunny in the morning then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 55, Low 42
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 35 Saturday – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 54, Low 40
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 39 Saturday – Rain showers, High 54, Low 41
I am certainly of the opinion that Saturday will be murkier than the other outlets, which is the reason for my narrower temperature range. The satellite this afternoon in Davenport is very nice.
It was very foggy the last two mornings in Rocky Mount. Tuesday, the sky didn’t clear until nearly 11, but on Wednesday, it cleared a bit earlier. All this led to a warmer afternoon high, and the all important Vitamin D infusion. There was no rain, despite a little bit of moisture flowing in, all of which brought about the morning fog. Accuweather had rain in the forecast, and despite this, the temperature forecast was good enough to give them the victory. Actuals: Tuesday, High 79, Low 51 Wednesday, High 82, Low 53
