Racine, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Regardless of your political affiliation, Tuesday is election day, and Wisconsin is one of the important swing states. Our forecast for Racine isn’t just a big forecast, but it is an historic one as well. Not to putt too fine a point on it.

At 1253PM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with brisk wind and rain. The showers were a bit more scattered along the shores of Lake Michigan, but most of Wisconsin was seeing rain at this time, and every resident of Wisconsin will see at least a drop of rain today. Racine, and really all of Wisconsin, finds itself at the northwestern point of a slow moving and broad trough, which has initiated the stratiform rain across America’s Dairy Land.
The jet streak running from the Red River Valley northeast to the western Great Lakes is not going to advance eastward, but will get steady recycling energy along the current. This will be reflected at the surface through bursts of energy bringing training rain and storms north through Wisconsin, particularly on The best chance for heavy rain, along with some isolated thunderstorms will be overnight Monday into Tuesday. Expect things to start cooling down late in the day, though snowfall isn’t particularly likely.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with heavy rain coming late, High 70. Low 59
Tuesday – Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, clearing and cooling late. 66, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early…then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 68, Low 58
Tuesday – Rain showers, with winds diminishing later in the day. High 67, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, windy and warmer with occasional rain and a thunderstorm High 66, Low 53
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers; windy and mild; prepare for wet weather if you are headed out to vote High 65, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 3pm and 4pm, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High 67, Low 57
Tuesday – Rain and possibly a thunderstorm High 68, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning and then a chance of light rain in the late morning and early afternoon. Light rain likely and slight chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon, High 66, Low 56
Tuesday – Light rain and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, and light rain in the afternoon. High 66, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with rain and a chance of thunderstorms, High 65, Low 57
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light rain and isolated thunderstorms, High 65, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 68, Low 56
Tuesday – Rain Showers, High 68, Low 60

It’s going to be interesting to see how quickly it cools off on Tuesday, because not everyone had hourly forecasts through the day. For tonight, though, look at all the rain in Wisconsin.

Human input

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

With a wave of energy coming off the Gulf of Alaska, it seemed possible that Portland would see some rain on the 23rd. The model guidance had it, and the outlets that lean a bit more closely on extracting data explicitly from models included it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather was the only man powered forecaster to include it. Ultimately, Portland didn’t see any rain. Score one for the old fashioned way. The Weather Channel secured victory, while Accuweather collected their third 2nd place in a row!
Actuals: October 23rd, High 58, Low 43
October 24th, High 60, Low 39

Grade: A-C

Athens, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are headed to north Georgia, and the home town of the state’s biggest University. Athens was at the periphery of Hurricane Helene’s deadliest swath, so even more so, I am hopeful for a quiet forecast.

At 1251AM, ET, Athens was reporting overcast conditions with a temperature of 66 degrees. A cold front was sliding through the region, and dropping temperatures between Atlanta and Chattanooga were leading to a band of fog in the region, and overcast through the region. The boundary is becoming cut off from any synoptic scale forcing, but will continue as a surface trough, expected to pivot back to the north through the coming days.
High pressure is returning to the eastern third of the country, but the weak trough is still showing up in forecast surface analysis. The trough will curiously move to the north on the back side of this anticyclonic flow, lifting away from Athens. The lingering low level moisture will not be compelled out of the region, however, and without adequate sunlight, Sunday looks to be a cooler day than Saturday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing and warm. High 80, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny, warm, High 72, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early, then partly to mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 49
Sunday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A few sprinkles possible High 70, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 72, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 79, Low 59
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 71, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny. High 80, Low 65
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 60

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 79, Low 58
Sunday – Rain showers, High 70, Low 58

I think the outlets forecasting rain are using some computer generated interpretation of the lower level moisture, calling it rain when it will instead by fog. Satellite shows just a bit of scattered clouds in the region, which are masking the fog further north.

Updates 11/1

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

2:11PM: The strong polarization on either coast is beginning to break down. It’s not going away, but the the cold anomaly out west is coming back to normal. Still warmer out east, which means precipitation is going to continue to be robust right in the middle of the country. Fortunately, it is needed in this area.

8:31PM After the snow and rain yesterday, it’s looking like the dry spell is going to be concluding rather quickly. Don’t be surprised to see more rain through the week in the Twin Cities… but not tonight. The precipitation that was in the area is dissipating fairly rapidly.

10:35PM: There is a marginal risk for severe weather along the Texas-New Mexico border, but nothing is really panning out right now. This same pattern will make things a bit more interesting this weekend. More severe weather, just like earlier this week, is expected west of the Mississippi from Iowa to Oklahoma. It’s sure been an interesting final third of 2024.

Updates 10/30

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

2:36PM There is an enhanced risk for severe weather in the center of the country today, which reflects a slow but substantial move towards more seasonal weather. It was 80 yesterday in Minneapolis, and in the low 40s in Bismarck, for example. It’s slow, but the dynamic is there. When I get around to posting forecasts, they promise to be a little bit more interesting.

Updates 10/29

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

9:56PM: Are you sick of politics, but still enjoy binary choices of red and blue? Well does the CPC have you covered! High pressure has been running things in the eastern half of the country, but a deep digging trough is moving in out west. That means the temperature outlook is bifurcated.

Unfortunately, just like America, this divide will lead to conflict. Expect storms in the Plains tomorrow, and probably through the week.

It was rain

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

The forecast in the middle of October for Binghamton was our first forecast for the season where anyone mentioned snow. It turned out, there were no flakes in Binghamton, but the temperature forecasts were nevertheless quite good. WeatherNation had the top forecast, but nobody should be embarrassed by their output.
October 16th – .05 inches of rain, High 46, Low 36
October 17th – High 55, Low 36

Grade: A-B

Autumn long dry spell

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

A lot of the attention for the last month has rightfully been on the southeast where two major hurricanes, Helene and Milton devastated areas from western Virginia to south Florida. Surge and wind were major problems, as always, but this hurricane season is going to be forever remembered for all the rain that fell, and the flooding that ensued.

It seems like I am talking about a different planet, then, when I reference the lack of rain in the middle of the country. But indeed, it is the middle of the same country that has not seen rain for weeks. Minneapolis is working on a top three dry spell, measured by the length of time since their last recorded rainfall. Southern Minnesota and all of South Dakota haven’t seen a drop of rain in a month.

There hasn’t been much rain anywhere in the Plains, which is particularly jarring because this area is adjacent to the part of the country that saw so much. Fortunately, a lot of this area was well hydrated earlier this year, and drought hasn’t yet seized the area in a particularly consequential way.

We are getting deeper into autumn, and by the middle of next week, it will start snowing across the northern tier, including the dry part of the northern Plains. It can’t come soon enough.