The Storm Prediction Center’s new look

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Take a look at the hail forecast from the SPC, issued for Monday. There is a swath of the Great Lakes that will see a threat for hail tomorrow.

There are two things to call out, design wise. First, perhaps most obviously, the color scale has changed to a creamier tone. The scale is distinctive, and particularly well defined on the general severe weather outlook. It’s easier on the eyes.

The other addition is in the bottom right corner. The individual hazards have always had a probability scale, but now, there is also an intensity scale for for every type of severe weather. There is no intense hail coming tomorrow, and in fact, it is just a marginal risk for severe weather overall. Better believe I’ll feature an outlook later this summer with forecasts for intense severe weather. You can look ahead though, these new maps are live already.

Better in force

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I wondered how often this would happen. With our first forecast in Madera, the best forecast belonged to… the consensus. The actual individual scores were all very close, with a high in the mid 80s on the 21st, and a cooler day with fresher air on the 22nd. Individually, The Weather Channel and Clime tied ahead of essentially everyone else, but were just a hair behind what you would have got if you averaged everyone out.
Actuals: 3/21: High 86, Low 63
3/22: High 84, Low 52

Grade: B

Ames, Iowa to Farmington, New Mexico

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It’s been a while since we have taken a road trip, and today’s journey takes us from a town that is host to Iowa State University, a school that is playing in tonight’s Sweet 16 basketball game. If you aren’t a basketball fan, then Farmington, in the 4 Corners area, is a scenic spring drive away. It will take two days and 1052 miles to cover the ground. The first day will cover less mileage, but the pace will be just shy of 63mph, and give us a daily target of 503 miles for the end of the day. The weekend approaches, and with that, perhaps, spring break.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Ames, Iowa

Boy, that map, with the thousand miles of roadway, but no coast on any portion of it is very unsettling for some reason. Let’s get moving and stop thinking about it! Speaking of dry (oops, guess I didn’t stop thinking about it), high pressure, chilly for late spring, has descended into the northern Plains. This should keep things dry, and hopefully calm as well. We’ll get off the freeway in Kearney, Nebraska and head southwest into Kansas. Temperatures will jump around then, but so too will the southerly winds. It may be breezy, and it will certainly be dusty, but it will also be around 80 as we pull into Rexford, in northwest Kansas, and before we pass I-70.

DAY TWO (Sunday)

Low pressure moving out of Wyoming often sounds like a problem, but on this journey, not particularly. The warm front we cross on Saturday is stemming from a low moving out of Wyoming, and it is going to be bringing warmer air north, but out of the Southwest, and not inflow from the Gulf. Those dusty winds we contended with on Saturday night will probably be a part of our entire western Kansas experience between Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue to be pleasant on the right side of the boundary, with highs in the low 80s. The winds will taper as we approach Walsenburg, Colorado, and really taper off for the rest of our mountain drive into Farmington. It’s a good weekend to hit the road.

Farmington, New Mexico

Updates 3/26

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9:16AM: Good morning! We have some changes to our weather pattern. They may not be significant, but it will be for residents of the West Coast. The hot weather will continue nearly everywhere, but the Pacific Coast is going to get a reprieve, and will enjoy temperatures a little closer to normal through the beginning of April.

8:37PM: Just a look at the forecast map from the WPC, showing that “average” in late March can still mean “wintry”

11:28PM: I know, based on previous updates today, you might be led to believe that this is snow, but it’s rain, and it is along a cold front that will give way to chilly weather tomorrow, and eventually severe storms in the Great Lakes this week.

Updates 3/25

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2:50PM: It’s hot, and starting to dry out out west. Because this time of year is the time most shortly following the rainy season, it’s not a particularly high time, climatologically, for wildfires. Having the dry heat now, though, doesn’t help down the road.

8:17PM: There is a cold front taunting the hot the sun baked southwest, lined up from northern Idaho to southwest Oregon bringing showers to the Pacific Northwest.

Updates 3/23

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10:52PM The short term forecast isn’t changing. The long term forecast isn’t changing. Above normal temps for a lot of the country (except New England) but that doesn’t necessarily mean “hot” weather. It’s a cool 43, for example, already in Hastings, NE.

11:48PM: I’ll get into it a bit more later, but the SPC has made changes to the site. Like I said, more on the more significant changes soon, but also, there is an updated color palette for the maps, and I am into it.

Everyone Gets Summer… Except New England

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Spring officially kicked off yesterday. Spring is a season of transition, and because of that, is a season of big weather stories. Indeed, this week started with a snowstorm in the Great Lakes, and a couple of severe weather days in the Eastern US, and now the unseasonable heat is the story for everyone.

Well…. Maybe not EVERYONE. Yes, those are winter weather advisories in New England, where snow is falling, and the heat wave has not made it’s way in. That is quite the contrast. The 300mb jet seems to suggest a particular bone to pick with Maine.

While it does seem a little bit cruel to keep just one corner of the country out of the fun, it does serve as a reminder that this little breach in the jet is allowing snow making conditions into a country that is otherwise experiencing record breaking heat.

This isn’t summer time yet. Cold air is just across the border. This is why we will probably see a few more big weather days before spring gives way.

Madera, California

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It’s not often we embrace March Madness because you can watch indoors, where the air conditioning is.

At 153PM, PT, Madera was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. The heat dome remains in place over the West, though the peak of the heat was inland, the ridge aloft isn’t going to be moving for the foreseeable future.
There area a couple of features moving through a trough under the Gulf of Alaska, and they are generating Clippers riding the Canadian border. There may be a bit of fresh air over Madera, but no substantial changes to the atmosphere, though Sunday will be a few degrees cooler.
Tomorrow- Sunny, High 87, Low 60
Sunday – Wispy clouds, High 82, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Near record high temperatures. High 88, Low 58
Sunday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. Near record high temperatures High 85, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 59
Sunday – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 79, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 89, Low 59
Sunday – Sunny, High 83, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 62
Sunday – Sunny High 82, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 89, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 54

CL: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy, High 86, Low 56
Sunday – Sunny, High 83, Low 51

A couple of warm days ahead. Probably more than that. Satellite offers no relief.