Santa Cruz, California to Provo, Utah

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I don’t have many examples of a road trip that starts in California that doesn’t take four or five days. We found one! It is only an 836 mile jaunt from Monterrey Bay to Provo, and will take us a day and a half. After we get to the free way, we will move pretty quickly, with an average speed of 65.8mph for the entire route. That means day one will target 526.6 miles, wherever that may lead.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Santa Cruz, California

Wouldn’t you know it, but the one area of the country with significant weather tomorrow is the West Coast. A pretty significant slug of rain is going to arrive in the Central Coast tomorrow morning. Heavy rain and California roadways are not a match made in heaven, and it will be torrential at times from Santa Cruz to Sacramento. Mudslides in this hilly terrain might be a concern. The angle that this disturbance will come on shore will also circumvent the highest of the Sierras. Sure, there will be some flakes around Truckee pass, but there still may be a few showers in northern Nevada. Fortunately, the terrain, while still prone to flash flooding and mudslides, is more forgiving and gives I-80 a wide birth. Most importantly, the rain will be a lot lighter in the Silver State. We will reach Primeaux, which is east of Winnemucca, as our waypoint.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
Our little feature from central California is going to merge with a larger waves coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. Showers are probably less likely in eastern Nevada, but as we approach the Wasatch, they become more likely again. Just for fun, it might be a bit snowy in the higher terrain of this particular range as well, though we will be driving at a lower elevation through Salt Lake City and south into Provo. Just a bit rainy, is all.

Provo, Utah

Not so spooky season

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At the end of October, the North Carolina Coastal Plains saw quite a bit of rain. Fortunately, it started to turn off right before Halloween. In Burlington, there was a trickle on the 30th, and most of it cleared out before the majority of people were awake. Then, on Halloween, it was even nicer, with clear skies and temperatures that rebounded into the 60s. A little chilly for an evening of trick-or-treating, but surely a fair sight better than many were probably expecting. Unless they were looking at the forecast from the Weather Service or Weather Nation, I guess, because those two knocked this forecast out of the park.
Actuals: October 30th, .06″ of rain, High 63, Low 49
Halloween – High 62, Low 39

Grade: A-C

Updates 11/10

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4:08PM: I can tell you that in the Upper Midwest this weekend, we saw some snow. That’s probably not a surprise for a lot of you because there is snow in the forecast for today as far south as the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee.

9:29PM: Given the last update, I think it may be fairly easy to believe that there is currently no activity in the North Atlantic. Are we done with the tropical season?

Santa Cruz, California

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We are dangerously close to the weekend. It’s been a soggy week on the West Coast. Will that trend continue?

At 1253PM, PT, Santa Cruz was seeing fair skies with a temperature of 68 degrees. Strong low pressure extended a cool front as far south as about Eureka. There is a lingering marine layer along the coast, but which hasn’t stuck within the bays of the California coast, including Monterey Bay, however an uncharacteristically high dew point suggests that some fog will return overnight.
The boundary won’t ever reach Santa Cruz before high pressure begins to build back in. This means that if there is leftover low clouds and fog in the area, it won’t be scrubbed out. Afternoons should still be sunny and mild, even with some haze in the morning.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing, High 69, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, low 52

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, sunny and pleasant High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 74, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny, High 74, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning.  High 67, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. High 69, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 74, low 52

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, Low 51
Saturday – Sunny High 73, Low 50

Clouds are lurking off shore. Will they cause problems? No, probably not, but maybe a bit of fog in the morning.

A good day for everyone (except Durham)

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Rarely do we see a day in which forecasts across the board grade out at an A for everyone. It’s unheard of for a couple of days that were as miserable as they were in Durham a couple days before Halloween. Temperatures lingered in the 50s, suppressed by a feature moving through the Carolinas and smothering the region with rain and wind. On the 28th, the winds gusted to nearly 40mph to go along with the 3/4″ of rain. The weather was miserable, but the weather followed along with what everyone anticipated. This meant this was a three way draw between Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and Accuweather. Everyone crowded behind us in a well fought, well done forecast battle.
Actuals: October 28th, .76″ of rain, High 51, Low 48
October 29th, .07″ of rain, High 57, low 48

Grade: A

Greeley, Colorado

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With the newly advertised atmospheric river coming for the Pacific Northwest, there stands to be a bit more interesting weather eventually trickling into the High Plains of Colorado. But how soon?

At 856PM, MT, Greeley was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 43 degrees. Greeley was a pit on the temperature map, as Fort Collins to the west and Fort Morgan to the east were both still in the 50s, while Greeley aligned more with Cheyenne and Laramie, where it had tarted to cool down. Flow is fairly calm, however there is a stream of high clouds showing up south of Denver.
The jet fostering low pressure will eventually emerge in the central Rockies, and dig into the high pressure in the Plains. Low pressure will begin to organize in Montana, drawing more warm, dry air through Greeley. With low pressure organizing so far north, there is no threat for rain in the Greeley area.
Tomorrow – Fair skies, High 67, Low 30
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 31
Thursday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 68, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and not as warm but pleasant High 66, Low 31
Thursday – Mostly sunny and windy High 69, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 32
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 38
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 65, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 35
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 31
Thursday – Partly cloudy High 68, Low 30

It’s such a wildcard this time of year in the High Plains and Front Range. The forecasts are all pretty similar, which means we are all going to be wrong in the same way. Satellite shows a few clouds tonight, generally to the south.

Rain that just won’t stop

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I have a general rule of thumb in the winter. I won’t believe it is done snowing until it is actually done snowing. If there are flurries, I’m just going to keep those flurries in the forecast. There are thermodynamic reasons for this that maybe I can get into at another time. Those thermodynamic reasons don’t apply to light rain showers, but perhaps I should have heeded that “just leave it in the forecast” ethos when forecasting for Elkhart last month. Rain looked like it was on the way out of town when I produced the forecast, but it didn’t leave on Thursday the 23rd, as I assumed it would. It also didn’t leave on Friday, which more of us didn’t think was the future in Elkhart. This soggy end of the week was best handled by the National Weather Service, who collected a forecast win.
Actuals October 23rd: .07″ of rain, High 51, Low 37
October 24th, .02″ of rain, High 53, Low 34

Grade: C-D

Updates 11/3

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3:57PM: Time for an advisory, if you need it: it’s November now, which means you need to start reviewing the WPC page for the heavy snowfall outlooks, as well as weaning off the SPC and NHC. Thank you, and apologies.

7:32PM: More from the WPC: All that incoming snow in the Pacific Northwest has been ascribed the atmospheric river label. It’s going to be snowy!

11:13PM: All this about the cooler weather inbound, I would be remis if I didn’t point out … It’s going to be warmer than normal for a healthy chunk of the country this week.

Updates 11/1

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2:50PM: See how the clouds are kind of ribbed throughout New England? Well, that means it is quite windy across the region, at the level at which the clouds lie. I can tell you it is fairly breezy at the surface, as well.

9:10PM: The wind that was evident in the image above is also responsible for bringing in quite a bit of chilly air. There are actually frost advisories tonight as far south as North Carolina.