Sumter is not Florence

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I don’t know what happened to Weather Underground, our traditional source for verification information. This time around, the problem was attribution. They kept reverting back to weather information for Florence when I sought info on Sumter. It’s too bad for us, because we verified better against Florence’s figures. When running the correct verification, Victoria-Weather fell off, and the cooler numbers in the afternoon, with cooler overnight lows gave the win to the trio of Accuweather, The Weather Service and WeatherNation
Actuals: Friday (the 26th) High 86, Low 68
Saturday – High 90, Low 64

Grade: A-B

An ineffective cold front

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Back in mid – July (that’s how far behind I am on these verifications) we looked at the western Michigan town of Muskegon, which was to receive a healthy wallop from a mass of storms moving through Minnesota and Wisconsin. Those storms proved stronger than expected in the Upper Midwest, and generally lasted longer in Michigan than anyone thought. What really surprised all outlets was how little the high temperature was impacted on Sunday the 21st. After a high of 89 on the 20th, it only dipped to 87 for a high on Sunday. Not really a terrific forecast, but not really terrific weather, either.
Actuals: Saturday – .51 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 71
Sunday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 87, Low 69

Grade: C-D

Always bet on thunderstorms

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That’s generally the rule of thumb for forecasting in Florida, especially in the summer months. Last weekend was our valid time for our forecast for Deltona, and there were a handful of outlets that unconscionably left rain out of the forecast one one or both days. Mistake. Because we stuck to our mantra, we won the forecast despite some pedestrian temperature forecasting.
Actuals: Friday – .36″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 95, low 75
Saturday – High 93, Low 75

Grade: B-C

It’s the nights that are oppressive

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A lot was made of the heat indices in the 110’s across a broad swath of the Plains east through the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic, but Huntsville is at higher elevation, and was battling an area of low pressure that was bringing clouds to the region and some spots of rain near (but not in) Huntsville on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures, as a result, barely scraped 90. Still hot, but not as hot as it could have been. The problem was overnight, when lows were in the muggy low 70s. That’s tough, as the body can’t cool down and recharge, and is an underrated danger of heat waves. As for the verification of Thursday’s forecast, there was a quartet of forecasters on level pegging: Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and Forecast.io.
Actuals: Friday – High 90, Low 73
Saturday – High 88, Low 72

Grade: B-C

Tyler stays clear

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There had been some concern that the general instability of the season left Tyler, Texas prone to an isolated thunderstorm on Monday, as flow started to get drawn towards what would ultimately become Barry. It never came to pass, however, with a hot, sunny Texas day to start the week. Tuesday was also hot, sunny and Texan. WeatherNation eked out a solo victory, nipping a handful of other outlets for the victory.
Actuals: Monday – High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – High 93, Low 76

Grade: A-C

Just another day in Southern Mississippi

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First the good news: there were no thunderstorms last Wednesday or on the 4th of July for the city of Gulfport. Now the bad news: it was really stinkin’ hot. Low to mid 90s in the afternoon, and a low of 75 each morning. I hope the air worked for locals, or at least they have grown accustomed to sweating through the night. Accuweather had a dry forecast and the second best temperature forecast, which meant they started July off on a good note.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 92, low 75
Thursday – High 94, low 75

Grade: A-B

No rain and nasty temps

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It was plenty warm in Nashville last week. temperatures soared into the low 90s in Nashville as the weekend commenced last week. there was a threat of some pop up showers and storms as is often the case south of the Ohio River this time of year, but Music City dodged the drops. The dry forecast meant Forecast.io was able to slip in front and win the forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 67
Saturday, High 92, Low 72

Grade: A-C

Double Duque’s

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Does that title make you think of Dubuque? it did in my head, but I’m not sure about it now, seeing it on paper. Anyways, this is in reference to the fact that we had two forecasts in Dubuque last week. Anthony made a forecast on the 18th, and I followed up on the 21st. There was no overlap in forecast period, and I can say that we both defeated 2 of our rival outlets. The difference was that Anthony tied all of the other ones, and The Weather Channel throttled the rest of us on the 21st. So congrats everyone, you pretty much all won (except Weatherbug and Forecast.io) on the 18th, but The Weather Channel really stood out on the 21st.
Actuals: Wednesday, Trace of rain, High 75, Low 57
Thursday, High 78, Low 67
Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 57
Sunday – .32 inches of rain, High 78, Low 67

Grade: B-C (18th) A-C (21st)

Late night, no worries

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I think it’s ok that Victoria-Weather and a couple of other outlets left the mention of rain out of the forecast in Omaha for yesterday. There were only a couple of drops, and they all came in the 10 o’clock hour, after everyone should have been in bed anyway. I guess it doesn’t really work like that though, so we have to give credit to The Weather Channel and the resurgent Weatherbug, who tied atop the forecast, thanks in part to their dash of Monday precip.
Actuals: Sunday – High 86, Low 64
Monday – Rain reported, not measured, High 82, Low 66

Grade: B-C

Triple Digits

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last week, we looked at a forecast in Yuba City, north of Sacramento. Whenever I think of interior northern California, I think of mountains, trees and milder weather than the inferno to the south. It gets plenty hot in the northern Valley too, though. Yuba City hit 102 on Wednesday, but faced a significant cool down on Thursday. 93! In fact, that 93 was cooler than any outlet had in the forecast. what a relief, right? Weatherbug beat the heat and had a very good score to earn the win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 102, Low 70
Thursday – High 93, Low 64

Grade: A-B