After Hours

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Pine Bluff was among the towns that endured severe weather this week, and as it happens, they are within a tornado watch in a Moderate Risk area again right now. When we put together a forecast there for the beginning of the week, it was the beginning of a needed 2 day interregnum. There was one more splash of rain before sunrise on Monday morning, but both Monday and Tuesday were relatively cool, and definite winners for fans of spring. Clime was also a winner, with a very good forecast, and the good sense to leave the chance of rain in the forecast for Monday, unlike some forecasters. I should note, Pine Bluff and the nearby environs did avoid the worst of the weather on Wednesday. It ended up initiating just to the northeast of the area
Actuals: Monday – .08″ of rain, High 71, Low 54
Tuesday – High 76, Low 48

Grade: A-C

Temperatures start to sneak up

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Nobody ever notices the low temperatures, and when they start to get warmer. You might look at our forecast for Rockford last week. We knew that Friday and potentially Saturday were going to be sweltering by late-March standards, but our forecast covered Wednesday and Thursday. Believe me when I tell you that the warm up had started on Thursday, though the high temperatures went the other direction. That drop in temperature was due to the overcast and little bit of rain that fell, but the overcast and rain were beckoned by an advancing warm front. The low temperature was in fact 17 degrees warmer on Thursday than Wednesday. Very sneaky. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 57, Low 29
Thursday – .05 inches of rain, High 55, Low 46

Grade: B – C

Tourist chaser

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The Florida Panhandle is an area that gets busy this time of year with students of all types spending their spring break in an easily accessible stretch of beach. One thing they don’t want in Fort Walton Beach or other spots is what they saw from the 19th to 20th. A splash of rain and morning lows that dropped into the 40s when all was said and done. Go home, tourists! Weatherbug got this non-welcoming forecast the best, losing points for having a dry forecast.
Actuals – 19th, High 72, Low 64
20th, .04 inches of rain. High 70, Low 46

Grade – C-D

A rare occasion

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It truly is an honor to say that we were there when we forecast for rain in central California, and it verified accurately. Indeed, our forecast in Hanford did verify with a half inch of rain on Monday and Tuesday, which most outlets had figured correctly. The biggest area of difference was the low temperature on Tuesday, which was a few degrees warmer than anticipated. All told, a pretty good forecast, considering the location and the fact that there was actually weather. Victoria-Weather and WeatherNation combined for the victory.
Actuals: Monday .46 inches of rain, High 60, Low 46
Tuesday .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 44

Grade: B-C

Can’t miss everything

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The end of the week was a stormy time for a great chunk of the country. And it all started popping off juuuuuuuust to the east of St. Joseph, Missouri, where the early afternoon on Friday brought a little bit of rain and a few gusts to start things off, but that was it. Well, almost. They also got the cold air behind the front. That’s where the real surprise came. St. Joseph reported a trace of snow late on Saturday. That was not on anyone’s bingo board. The National Weather Service had the top forecast for the storm kickoff.
Actuals: Friday -.04 inches of rain, High 79, Low 57
Saturday – .04 inches of liquid in snow, High 59, Low 34

Grade: C

All hail the NAM

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We looked at Poughkeepsie, New York at the beginning of the week. The town was in a clear patch between two systems. The northern system was robbed of moisture by the southern feature, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS believed that Poughkeepsie would see dry skies, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS were correct. It was dry in the atmosphere on Tuesday, which led to a wider temperature delta than was expected. Scores weren’t great, but Accuweather earned a win.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 29
Wednesday – High 48, Low 35

Grade: C-D

Blessedly calm

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The weather in California is pretty reliable. It’s often warm, sometimes hot, with a lot of sun, and some splashes of rain. When winter rolls around, interior California gets huge amounts of snow, which later water the Central Valley with the melt in the summer. But then, when things go off kilter, you get killer heat waves and fires, or rain that falls nearer the coast and causes flash flooding and land slides. We had a forecast for San Luis Obispo last month and I’m happy to say that the nastiest it got was some morning fog, which was quickly scoured out with a steady morning breeze. Accuweather had the top forecast, which had some temperature error thanks to a chilly morning low, but ultimately everyone is glad for a couple of nice days where the only complaint might be a few minutes of fog.
Actuals: February 24th, High 73, Low 45
February 25th, High 77, Low 54

Grade: B-D

One of the last cold snaps

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In the wake of the same system that brought flurries that lingered for Sandusky, cold air spilled into Ohio Valley. Temperatures in Columbus, Indiana, for example, struggled to get out of the 20s on Friday, which meant all of our forecasts came in too warm. Things sorted themselves out a bit better on Saturday though, so the real tough spot was the first day. The Weather Channel had the best time of it on Friday, and that led to their victory for the day
Actuals: Friday – High 28, Low 15
Saturday – High 36, Low 14

Grade B-C

Flurries that won’t stop

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An under reported facet of the weather and forecasting in general is the wind direction. It stands a bit more at the forefront when lake effect snow is at play, as it was in Sandusky. The snow that was in the forecast lingered until the early afternoon on Friday, despite thoughts it would conclude on Thursday. Nobody had the snow right, so it came down to temperatures, and Victoria-Weather took the victory.
Actuals: Thursday – Snow reported, not measured, High 25, Low 14
Friday – Snow reported, not measured, High 30, Low 21

Grade – C-D

An icy weekend

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I have to believe that most football fans in Southeast Pennsylvania were happy with the way the Super Bowl turned out on Sunday. I bet they barely noticed in Lebanon that over a 10th of an inch of ice coated light snow through the region on Friday. Everyone, somehow, pegged the snow and ice, so it came down to the thermometer, where the differentiator was a warm day on Friday. Accuweather and WeatherBug took a share of the win.
Actuals: Friday – High 41, Low 31
Saturday – .33 inches of liquid in snow and ice, High 32, Low 24

Grade: C-D