A District drenching

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March went out like a lion in the mid-Atlantic. A batch of low pressure that emerged from the Smokey Mountains invigorated some moisture in the region, and there was nearly an inch of rain in Washington on the last day of the month. With all those showers, the temperature dispersal was fairly minimal last Wednesday, The top forecast was held by Accuweather, who correctly foresaw the gloomy end to the month.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 69, low 46
Wednesday – .92 inches of rain, High 65, Low 56

Grade: B -C

A quick turn around

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A little over a week ago, we took a look at the weather in Sacramento, which was at the tail end of a nasty couple of days. The culprit was a broad area of low pressure that would end up moving into the southern Plains and bringing a tornado outbreak to the southeast late this week. Things bounced back very quickly after one last murky day on Thursday. The high temperatures jumped more than 10 degrees from Thursday to Friday, setting up a nice weekend. Accuweather grabbed a narrow victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 36
Friday – High 69, Low 35

Grade: B-C

All of the cold, none of the snow

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Last Wednesday, when we were looking at Colorado Springs, we checked out the radar. Flurry activity stayed in the Denver area, north of the Palmer Divide. This topographic barrier slowed precipitation, which was mighty, in the Denver area through the end of the week, as a nother round of wet weather descended upon the Plains. Mind you, it eventually did bring Colorado Springs quite a bit of nasty weather, but that was on the weekend, after the forecast period expired. There was a little spritz light wintry weather on Friday night, but not the deluge expected for late week by some outlets. Temperatures stayed much cooler than anticipated, which is a flaw that can show up in the Rockies. That’s just the way it goes. The Weather Channel was the top forecast, but it was rough.
Actuals: Thursday – High 38, Low 25
Friday – .03 inches of mixed precip, High 32, Low 27

Grade: B-F

Clear skies, crisp temperatures

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When you are working with clear skies in the Plains, you might expect to have a pretty easy forecast. Even with low pressure moving towards Topeka late in the forecast period last week, it was the first day of our forecast period that proved toughest. Those clear skies brought temperatures all the way down to 29 degrees by Wednesday morning, which was a solid 5 degrees colder than anyone prognosticated. The Weather Channel was the best aside from that blip that was on everyone’s ledger, as they accurately had the warmest high temperature forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 72, Low 29
Thursday – High 72, Low 30gradec

Grade: C – D

Waterlogged western Maryland

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I wrote recently about the flooding in eastern Kentucky and across West Virginia. Western Maryland, and specifically the city of Cumberland, for which we had a forecast last week, didn’t avoid the persistent soaking rains either. On the last day of February, Cumberland endured daylong rain that accumulated to over an inch. Fortunately, reports of flooding in Maryland weren’t as prolific, but this was enough rain to cause concern. Weatherbug was the top forecast for the end of the month.
Actuals: Saturday – .03 inches of rain, High 47, Low 25
Sunday – 1.21 inches of rain, High 47, Low 40

Grade: C-D

In the mix

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The end of February saw another, somewhat repetitive pattern, with perturbations emerging from the southern Plains and heading for the eastern Great Lakes. It happened more than once, including early last week when we were forecasting in Ocean City, New Jersey. It was about to rain on Sunday night when we looked at the forecast, and to the surprise of a few, that rain mixed with snow on Monday morning. It was more rain than snow, however, and nothing accumulated as the day wore on. Ultimately, it was a tied forecast win for Forecast.io and Victoria-Weather. I had a typo in my forecast, so I am ok letting FIO have the plaudits on this go-around.
Actuals: Monday – .46″ of rain, High 45, Low 31
Tuesday – High 51, Low 35

Grade: B-C

The Road Back

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It was a really tough middle of February, but late last week, the recovery and a look towards spring began. We put together a forecast for Gulfport, which, even along the Gulf Coast, endured unusually cold weather. They started bouncing back on Friday and Saturday, however, with temperatures almost touching 60 on Saturday. It’s not warm, especially in southern Mississippi, but it was getting there. To go along with the positive vibes, there was a three way tie atop the leaderboard. Accuweather, Weatherbug and Forecast.io secured the top spot.
Actuals: Friday, High 56, Low 33
Saturday – 57, Low 28

Grade: B-C

Unrelenting flurries

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Snow was reported sporadically for the first 36 hours of the forecast period in Utica. The grand total accumulation was about 2 hundredths of an inch of precipitation, which is probably less than half an inch of true accumulation. Downwind of the Great Lakes, that practically qualifies as a no snow day. Temperatures were a challenge, cooling more than expected on Saturday. Ultimately, Victoria-Weather continued our winning streak.
Actuals: Friday, Snow reported, not measured. High 28, Low 21
Saturday – .02 inches of snow, High 28, Low 7

Grade:

The last gasp of a cold spell

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When we put together our forecast for Dubuque, they were at the tail end of their extended inhabitance of a February cold spell for the record books. Wednesday dipped down all the way to -13, but the Thursday low was a relatively mild 2 above, a difference of 15 degrees. Not bad! The biggest issue with the forecast was a tendril of light snow that moved through the Mississippi Valley. It came about 12 hours later than expected, which meant that everyone missed on the precipitation forecast, even the select few who actually through it might snow. Victoria-Weather was better than the rest on temperatures, and won the forecast with ease.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 12, Low -13
Thursday- Trace of precipitation, High 18, Low 2

Grade: C-D

Hattiesburg hears thunder

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While the catastrophe in Texas has garnered many of the headlines this week, the disaster was more widespread than that. From cold weather throughout the Plains to snow and ice nearly everywhere west of the Appalachians, many people suffered loss, disruption and discomfort. In Hattiesburg, temperatures were significantly colder than normal, but at least late in the week, precipitation was all rain. There were even some rumbles of thunder on Wednesday night as the second feature of the weeklong event passed to the north. Ice was a huge problem to the north of Hattiesburg, and even with over an inch of rains, and temperatures in the 20s, before the precipitation rolled in, you might even say they were lucky. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – .93 inches of rain, High 42, Low 20
Thursday – .24 inches of rain, High 43, Low 32

Grade: B-C