Doink!

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Showers and storms streamed up the western flank of the high pressure system that was parked over the eastern US earlier in the week. They were always going to be a threat for Des Moines, but they were bopped a little bit harder by a storm last Thursday. Smaller spots of rain drifted through throughout the rest of the forecast period, resulting in .5 inches of rain falling through the 2 day period. Weatherbug continued a good month, and netted the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – .45 inches of rain, High 73, Low 64
Friday – .05 inches of rain High 79, Low 68

Grade: A-C

Alaskan adventure

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The forecasts for Fairbanks weren’t exceptionally bad, honestly, but I would say that an important lesson learned is that forecasting in Alaska is s very specific skill that is best honed by living there and forecasting the area all the time. It’s a different animal than the continental US. As one might imagine with this preamble, The National Weather Service collected victory. They were close on temperatures, and properly anticipated some showers coming down out of the mountains, which was not a thing that happened for everyone. So congrats, NWS, and we will see you in the CONUS.
Actuals: Monday, .02 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Tuesday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A-C

Calm in Kalamazoo

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In the midst of a cool start to May, there were certainly some dry days which the sun even peeked out across the north central US. Kalamazoo had such a pair of days at the beginning of last week, but under a cooler regime only managed to reach the mid 50s for highs. There was a near consensus on the forecast, and it was a pretty accurate assessment. In the end, The Weather Channel and Weatherbug emerged with slightly better forecasts than all the rest.
Actuals: Monday, May 10th, High 54, Low 36
Tuesday, May 11th, High 55, Low 32

Grade: A-B

A promising start

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May started off so good in Worcester. By the end of May 3rd, however, rain had moved in and started a cool stretch that would leave the state below normal for an extended period to time. The third was towards the warm end of forecasts, but the 4th, a significantly rainier period, was on the colder side. The Weather Channel navigated to the best forecast, which significantly outpaced a couple outlets, who didn’t have rain forecast for the 4th at all.
Actuals: May 3rd, .03 inches of rain, High 68, Low 51
May 4th, .61 inches of rain, High 56, Loe 46

Grade B – D

What happened?

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The verification for Anniston was interesting. There was no rain to be seen anywhere, but an area of clouds last Wednesday parked itself over town just before noon. Not only did it stop diurnal heating, but a batch of cold air rushed in underneath it and made sure highs never reached the 50s. There was a cold front that showed up to the north of Anniston, but the rain never filtered down to Alabama, thanks to the effects of a cold front over the central Gulf preventing much moisture from reaching the Southeast. So it was a strong cold front, stronger than we anticipated, but with nothing to show for it. The combined forces of Accuweather and Weatherbug tied for the top forecast.
Actuals: April 20th, High 76, Low 46
April 21st, High 55, Low 40

Grade: C

Springtime sprinkles

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Last weekend, Elizabethtown‘s forecast was up in the air. After a clear morning on Saturday, many outlets disagreed as to what twists and turns the northern Kentucky town would take. It did start on the cool side, which was the initial bone of contention, but then, clouds laden with some very light rain dictated the afternoon temperatures as well. Those that foresaw the precipitation also tended to call for cooler temperatures, but it certainly wasn’t a consensus. While they didn’t have the best overall temperature outlook, their call for rain gave Weatherbug the prize for the day.
Actuals: April 17th – .05 inches of rain, High 55, Low 41
April 18th – Rain reported, not measured, High 62, Low 34

Grade: C-D

A dose of spring

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One of the consistent complaints about spring is that it is all too short. It seems, in the minds of many people, that we often jump right from winter to summer with little transition. Late last week in Louisville, spring had come. Temperatures reached the low 60s under a pleasant sunny sky — the perfect spring time weather. Forecasts were all very similar (there was a 4 way tie in 3rd place) but two outlets had morning lows forecast to be a little bit warmer, and they were in the top two spots. Victoria-Weather came in second, but Weatherbug had a nearly perfect forecast to attain victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 60, Low 43
Friday – High 65, Low 42

Grade: A-C

The wind howls through southwest Utah

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Southwest Utah isn’t a terribly rainy spot, and when low pressure developed in the middle part of the state, the response in St. George certainly wasn’t rainfall. Instead, on Tuesday St. George reported gusts of over 40mph, which is certainly swift, and almost certainly laden with dust on the outskirts of town. Temperatures generally cooperated with forecasts, with warmer overnight lows on Tuesday really the only day over day change. We had a trio of outlets combine for the top forecast, with Weatherbug splitting the difference with the Weather Service and Weathernation, each of whom had their first victory of the year.
Actuals: Monday, High 80, Low 52
Tuesday – High 82, Low 55

Grade: B-C

Cooler air slogs into central Illinois

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A big blob of rain, with a few thunderstorms embedded within a big swirling low inched towards Decatur late last week. Since late Wednesday night, that rain has made it as far as the Great Lakes. So it rained in Decatur during our forecast period of Thursday and Friday, but the radar was less and less intense as time went on, and temperatures dropped off to become seasonable, and eventually, below normal. If there was a silver lining to all the clouds, it was that forecasts for the region were pretty good. Forecast.io gets top marks.
Actuals: Thursday – High .09 inches of rain, High 79, Low 60
Friday – .13 inches of rain, High 63, Low 51

Grade: A-C

Soggy start to April in Boston

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Our last post of March was actually a forecast that covered the first couple of days of April in Boston. I have to say, it is not weather that I would have enjoyed. After a very rainy start to the month on the 1st, temperatures struggled to even reach 40 on Friday the 2nd. If there was a silver lining, it certainly wasn’t for Bostonians, but rather for Victoria-Weather, who easily won the day.
Actuals: Thursday, April 1st, .98″ of rain, High 58, Low 36
Friday, April 2nd, High 40, Low 29

Grade: A-B