Everyone loves to talk about the weather, as I’m sure you do (you’re here at this site, after all) but depending on where you are this April, you might have a decidedly different conversation. If you are in the southern US, you are probably talking about how stormy this year has been. In the north, you probably can’t get over how chilly things have remained all spring.

For an explanation, we need to look even bigger than we usually do, beyond the confines of the Contiguous US. The answer lies in the jet structure across the United States. As you may already be aware, bigger features are more challenging to move in the atmosphere, and there is an enormous trough that keeps recycling and sustaining itself, and the base of that trough has run across the northern United States.

Take a look at the big picture, the jet forecast for this afternoon.

Typically, if I am looking at the US forecast, I would note the deep trough coming to the west coast was, or even noting the ripple in the northern Great Lakes, but when taking into account the spring writ large thus far, and unfortunately for the coming weeks, the immediate notice is that the larger waves are the ridges bracketing the United States.

There are semi-permanent features in the ocean, certainly, including the Bermuda High, and the existence of the ridges are not unusual. Some things that are factoring into making this spring unusual is the amplitude of the trough over North America. It should be starting to retreat into Canada, bringing some calm to the south, and allowing warmth to filter back north, but the mean trough is instead littered with localized troughs like the one set to upset this weekend.

Another peculiarity is how weak the trough in the Gulf of Alaska is. The Aleutian Low is as permanent s the Bermuda High, but right now, and for a while, this feature has been replaced by transient features moving into the Pacific Northwest. This gives this larger continental wave more breadth, and makes it more difficult to move.

With the mean trough over the US running through the northern tier of states, it is penning cold air that same swath of the country. On the same note, the sun is getting stronger, so warmth is building south of the jet. This clash of air masses at the surface, when coupled with the relatively shorter waves moving across the nation, is making for an active storm season, and a chilly spring, depending on what side of the divide you are on. Eventually, the pattern will break, but there isn’t an immediate sign of that happening quite yet.

It’s been a slow start to the year, especially when it comes to reviewing our months of work. We have February and March to check in on, so let’s not waste time!

February was a very well contested month in the handful of forecasts we had. There was one outlet that lagged well behind, but we won’t embarrass them. Instead, we will point to Weatherbug, who had the solid victory in the month of February.

March was a little bit more snug at the top. Weatherbug was pipped in the end, with only half a point to spare. Good news on this tax day, as the National Weather Service took our tax dollars and turned it into a monthly W.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
National Weather Service	3
Victoria-Weather	2.33
Accuweather	2.33
The Weather Channel	1.33
Weatherbug	1
Forecast.io
WeatherNation

Persistently, for years, the abnormally warm part of the country has been the west. It’s exasperated the drought, fanned wildfires and brought hundreds of millions of dollars of destruction to the region. Finally, the upper level feature preparing to bog down over the western US will be a trough. The long wave, slow moving trough over the western US will ensure below normal temperatures for a large chunk of the Pacific Coast and Rocky Mountains.

The coldest stretch will be in the second week of the month, and there is a good deal of forecast confidence in the below normal temperatures.

The colder weather out west will turn around by the end of the month, as the feature will start to propagate and surely bring severe weather to the Plains, given the temperature change over such a narrow swath of land, showing up even in these long term outlooks. Despite the coming warm up as this broad trough starts moving, the overall outlook for the month of March is for below normal temperatures in the west.

Rain will come to the Pacific Northwest but the trough is going to be far enough east that low pressure will generally develop in the Rockies. Not necessarily a drought buster for California, but perhaps an extension to the ski season will be coming soon.

We are halfway through February, and the schedule has still not permitted time to reward the forecasters of the month in December and January, let alone the forecaster of the year for 2021. Naturally, we have an opening just before a fairly significant weather system sets to blast the south central US. I’ve been giving a lot of updates to friends on that, so it’s time to take a step back to review where we have come from.

First, I will start with the December champion, because I’m sure that will be top of mind for everyone, and I like to give a shout out when an unusual champion makes a stride. Forecast.io won the month of December. Good for them!

With that in mind, we can also award the title for Forecaster of the Year. It was close for a lot of the year, and our winner was even in second place until about August, but then they surged and won going away. The Weather Channel was the strongest forecaster in 2021, and it’s hard to dispute this as a fluke. Way to go, TWC, you were dominant. Kudos to Weatherbug, who had the highest highs, earning the most individual forecast victories, but sloughing off when they weren’t at the top of the heap. It’s about consistency, not just the wins.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug	16.99
Victoria-Weather	12
The Weather Channel	11.66
Forecast.io	10.66
Accuweather	8.83
National Weather Service	6.16
WeatherNation	1.66

And now, finally, we can conclude with the champion for the month of January in 2022. We were awfully light on the forecasting to start the year, but we can say, with confidence, that The Weather Channel didn’t let off the gas pedal, just because they started the new year. Congratulations for all the good news, Atlanta!

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel	1.33
National Weather Service	1
Victoria-Weather	0.33
Accuweather	0.33
Weatherbug
Forecast.io
WeatherNation

The weather took a terrible turn this past month, with dozens killed in a tornado outbreak centered around the lower Ohio Valley, and strong winds and isolated tornadoes coming at the an unusual time, and bringing destruction to the Upper Midwest. One question that was raised, particularly after the Mayfield tornado occurred, and the samage and loss of life was assessed was what could have been differently.

From a meteorologist’s standpoint, there wasn’t much. There was at least a 20 minute lead time in Mayfield, for example which was certainly enough time for shelter to have been taken, even for some people in the small town to find safety in a structure other than the destroyed candle factory where so much loss occurred, if they didn’t think the building itself was safe.

Meteorologists used every tool they had at their disposal, and they did so in a timely, generally accurate pattern. Not only was there an outlook for severe weather in western Kentucky, but it was posted as a moderate risk. There were tornado watches for hours ahead of time, and Mayfield itself was in a tornado warning with a confirmed tornado, before the warning was upgraded to a tornado emergency, with 15-20 minutes of lead time. The tornado emergency, which doesn’t come until after a tornado warning is issued, gave residents almost twice as much of a lead than a tornado warning typically affords.

The issues are educational and psychological. With as much lead time, and as quality as the forecast was with a good handle on the live situation as meteorologists had, it filters back to the populace to be their own own last line of defense. Praise, rightfully, has been given to local NWS and television meteorologists, but their calls for safety went unheeded by some.

Some answers to the source of the issues can be seen in the response to the storm in the Upper Miwest a week later. There was a great deal of concern ahead of time for a serial derecho, with some tornadoes and even strong wind outside of the heaviest storms. Tornadoes did hit several communities from Nebraska to Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but the track was a hair further south than had been anticipated in a lot of forecast outputs. To hear many residents of the Twin Cities tell it, the forecast was completely off, even though the storm had been significant, with confirm tornadoes one county outside of the greater metropolitan area.

There is a segment of the population that gives weather forecasts zero margin for error, and even though most broadly consumed forecasts are for a region, rather than a point, a forecast’s validity for many users is only accurate insofar as it is accurate for their location. The SPC said there was a chance for a tornado within 25 miles of the metropolitan area This forecast was indeed accurate, but some residents likely disagree with that assessment, as there were no tornadoes IN the metro area.

If there is a preconditioning towards disbelief of a forecast, the forecasts are not going to be regarded, and that is generally OK with me. If you want to be caught without a coat or an umbrella, that is your prerogative, but also, a warning is not the same as a forecast, and the messaging reflects that, even is the reception doesn’t.

In this case, it comes down to education. While forecasts are broad, various updates and warnings become more focused as severity increases. This has always been the case, but even my closest friends and family can’t always figure out the difference between a watch and a warning. If that’s the case, adding the extra layers of a reported tornado warnings and tornado emergencies lose their efficacy. Under no uncertain terms, these definitions should be taught in schools, as should local geography. If you know where you are on a local map, you can look at radar yourself and “do your own research” if you don’t believe meteorologists.

Another phenomenon of human psychology, especially as it pertains to warnings and the weather, is described well in the fable of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. Even in Mayfield, there was a tornado warning earlier in the day, and it is alleged that the fact that the first warning bore no harm to Mayfield perhaps led management of the candle factory to disregard the second forecast. A look at a radar would have shown that another storm was indeed on it’s way, and an education in the parlance of warnings would have shown that this second warning was actually a tornado emergency, and significantly more serious.

Meteorologists and anthropologists for years have known that repeated warnings lead to increased popular dismissal of the warnings, and the National Weather Service has responded by reformatting warnings to base them on polygons, rather than strictly by county. They have altered the text in warnings, and added tornado warnings to reflect severity, or to focus the warnings even further on individual locations. At some point, we need to focus on education to make sure these messages are understood and acted upon appropriately.

It’s hard to remember much about November most of the way through December, especially because December has been such a historic month. The upper level pattern was strong and undulating, reminiscent of an active spring, rather than the middle of December. One of the most devastating and perhaps longest track tornadoes came to the lower Ohio Valley, where there were deaths in Arkansas and Illinois, but particularly in Kentucky, where 76 lost their lives. The tornadoes did the most damage to Mayfield and Dawson Springs in Kentucky, but certainly, other communities are hurting.

That same storm was responsible for dumping up to 20 inches of snow on parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Then, a few days later, another strong system tracked into the same area, and serial derechos spread across the High Plains and Upper Midwest. In addition to winds that were approaching 100mph, there were tornadoes recorded in December for the first time in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Fortunately, the human impact was a lot less significant with this storm than the one that struck Mayfield and communities surrounding.

It’s been a very difficult month.

November was a more relaxed month for weather headlines, and it went particularly well for The Weather Channel, who easily won the month, and will be tough to beat for the year’s prize.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug	14.99
The Weather Channel	11.16
Victoria-Weather	11
Accuweather	8.83
Forecast.io	8.16
National Weather Service	6.16
WeatherNation	1.66

Temperatures aren’t incredibly warm right now, but they are above normal across the country, as our strong seasonal jet lies along the Canadian border, ensuring Arctic air is held at bay, and continues to force the various systems moving through North America into Canada, with little impact across the US.

There is a pretty decent area of low pressure coming together over Ontario tonight, preparing to move through New England over the next 48 hours, with some precipitation coming, including snow in the Green and White Mountains, but not down near the coast. In early December, a Canadian area of low pressure could reasonably be expected to bring about snow and wind, but without cold enough air in place, and a redirect towards the north thanks to the jet’s position, the storm will be more nuisance and less of a concern.

We will be graced by this mellow start to December only for a couple of days. The long range forecasts, while still on the warm end, suggest that more precipitation is going to be on it’s way for the rest of the month. Eventually, normal temperatures are expected for the northern part of the US, which means, of course, chilly winter weather. The snow is coming, and a white Christmas is probably on it’s way for a lot of people that are used to it.

More immediately, a trough will start to emerge in the second half of the weekend, with a strong, deep trough emerging in the center of the country. Cold air will spill into the Mississippi Valley, while low pressure and an active cold front start sweeping through the eastern third of the country to start next week. It is more likely that this is our first really good taste of winter, because the wet weather moving into New England isn’t really it.

Enjoy these quiet days, because things are going to get a bit more wintry as the month moves forward.

I’m not sure it’s happened in a while, but we get to talk about the Forecaster of the Month without having to touch on a major storm cruising through some part of the country. Of course, there is flooding rain in Bellingham, Washington today, so perhaps I should hold my tongue.

There isn’t much to say this month, except that The Weather Channel dominated the month in forecasting, winning easily over any of the competition. They hold a commanding lead for the monthly forecast titles for the year, even though they trail Weatherbug in individual forecast wins.

Outlet	Forecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug	13.66
The Weather Channel	10.33
Victoria-Weather	9
Accuweather	7.83
Forecast.io	7.33
National Weather Service	5.16
WeatherNation	1.66

I’m not sure it was planned this way, but Fox Weather sure had a good chance to show off the skills it’s bullpen of meteorologists have, with a pair of severe weather days, first in Missouri on Sunday (Fox covered the aftermath on their launch day) and again in the Sabine Valley from east Texas to western Louisiana, where Lake Charles had a tornado sweep through town only a year after being devastated by the 2020 hurricane season, notably by Hurricane Laura.

That first round of storms reemerged off shore and drove into southern New England and the mid-Atlantic as a nor’easter, bringing flooding rains around the New York area. There was also more mountain snow and the long awaited conclusion of rain on the west coast, and steady rain at times for nearly everyone in the country as some point, wrought by one of these storms.

The low that was so problematic in the south central United States has become bloated and slow moving. It is now slogging through the eastern Great Lakes bringing intermittent rain to a lot of the northeastern US. Through the weekend, the low will sink off shore, become reinvigorated and blast back north into New England. Behind the feature, cooler than normal temperatures in place, and will be there for the beginning of November.

So how did Fox Weather handle the busy week? Fairly well, I would say. If nothing else, Fox Weather hired people who were comfortable in front of a camera, or were capable of highly produced television. The station is slick, and looks nice. The presenting meteorologists are clear and conversive, and it is a good over the air package.

Unfortunately, all the money was spent on making the streamed product. There is no way for you to get the forecast on their website, and the app is a challenge to use. Fox Weather is essentially a news website with a focus on the weather. You can’t get any forecasts online from Fox. Can you imagine a weather website in which you can’t get your local forecast?

Preposterous.

There will soon be another major player in the weather market. On Monday, Fox is releasing a new streaming weather service and app. They have a weather based website primed to launch as well, but it remains unclear if that will be a traditional site, or if it will host the streaming service.

Some of the features, like the long range forecasts, are silly, and are just ways to try to drive users to the site. The 3d graphics that are promised are a selling point, and the use of local meteorologists across the country is innovative and should bring about some local knowledge that drives effective forecasting.

The elephant in the room, as with all things these days, and particularly when Fox comes up, is politics. Fox News is notoriously conservative in it’s news choices, and that has filtered down into their other media resources. Fox Sports, when they provide analysis, skews conservative as well (If you don’t believe me, listen to Clay Travis just once), and there is a thought that Fox Weather might intend the same.

I think, though, there is space in the market for an explicitly conservative weather outlet, and given the format of the app and stream, it will likely mitigate the most antediluvian tendencies. While climate change is a fairly well grounded scientific principle, it is a political issue and is not well accepted by those with conservative political leanings. While some meteorologists share these stances, they have evolved into questioning the potential impact and appropriate course of action, rather than the veracity of global warming. Additionally, with the network leaning on local weather persons, who may not be directly employed by Fox, there is probably less imperative to follow the corporate mantra.

I think the compromise that we will see at Fox Weather is that, instead of talking about climate change and mankind’s role in the process, and needing to stake a position that may or may not be different than Fox News’ position, the topic will be unaddressed. Instead, Fox Weather, to claim that conservative weather client, will focus only on shorter term forecasts and breaking weather news.

With The Weather Channel leaning heavily into climate change coverage and activism, some people in tornado alley may have drifted away. Having a resource from a brand name they trust providing the important information, they may be more keen to tune in at or ahead of time. As long as the Fox Weather personnel opt for avoidance of the climate change topic rather than being pressured into giving misinformation, I think Fox Weather has a chance to be a benefit to the public safety of our country.

If the Fox Weather site becomes usable like other weather sites we use, there is a very good chance we will see it on these pages in the future. I will also make sure to get the app and will post online any thoughts that come to mind.