Casper, Wyoming

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

As temperatures are expected to soar here in the Upper Midwest this weekend, let’s venture to the Rockies and take a peek at how things will pan out in Central Wyoming!

At 1120pm MDT, the temperature at Casper, WY was 61 degrees under fair skies. Low pressure found over the Northern High Plains will shift its way into Central Canada throughout the day Saturday, trailing a boundary back into the Great Basin. Luckily for Casper, the main focus of any precip will be over the Dakotas as hot, humid air streams northward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, kicking up storms off to the east. Low pressure that develops over the Great Basin Saturday shifts into the Central Rockies on Sunday. This increased cloud clover will bring much lower temps during the day, and as the overall boundary sags a bit southward, chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening increases.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 57.
Sunday: Increasing clouds and cooler. Possible evening thunderstorms. High 81, Low 54.

TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 55.
Sunday: Cloudy, isolated showers. High 80, Low 54.

AW: Saturday: Partly sunny; hot. High 91, Low 55.
Sunday: Mainly cloudy; not as warm. High 80, Low 52.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny then mostly sunny and breezy. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy then chance of thunderstorms. High 85, Low 59.

WB: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 58.
Sunday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 77, Low 53.

WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 85, Low 59.

FIO: Saturday: Foggy, then partly cloudy. High 93, Low 63.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, isolated showers. High 83, Low 58.

We see a fairly quiet pattern over Wyoming, while a thunderstorm complex is keeping things interesting along the Canadian border.

Nashville, Tennessee

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Music City is our stop for this forecast. I think it’s an unfair sobriquet, frankly, because while Nashville is the home of Country Music, Memphis, just down the road, has a lot of jazz and blues history, as well as Graceland and Elvis. Gosh darn it, Tennessee should just be the Music State.

At 853AM, CT, Nashville was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees, even at this early hour. A remnant vorticity maximum was bringing thunderstorms to western Tennessee, though more broadly, the Tennessee Valley was under a broad ridge of high pressure.
After the vort max subsides, It will be warm high pressure taking hold in central Tennessee. Generally speaking, this usually means isolated showers and storms in the summertime, and that will be no different tomorrow and especially Saturday. It will be more active to the north, synoptically, but scattered afternoon showers and storms are more likely than not throughout the southeast.
Tomorrow – Stuffy, with a chance of afternoon showers and storms, High 88, low 70
Saturday – A little clearer, but still a threat for afternoon thunder, High 90, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a thunderstorm High 91, Low 69
Saturday – Partly sunny, warm; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 92, Low 69
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 92, low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain tomorrow evening. High 91, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, low 72

Here are the scattered storms over western Tennessee. Expect a lot less organization as the weekend rolls around.

Dubuque, Iowa

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Yes! We are forecasting for the same city in Iowa twice in a week. Anthony and I are operating on slightly different calendars, and there was overlap this week. Which of us does Dubuque best?

At 853AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Winds from the east were picking up, feeding into a line of very strong thunderstorms that were barreling down I-80, passing through Marshalltown on their way to Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. The heaviest activity will remain south of Dubuque, but Dubuque won’t be completely unscathed when all is said and done.
The line of storms is a true derecho, following a stationary front that runs south of Dubuque towards Missouri and into Kentucky and Tennessee. The northwestern part of the boundary is poised to lift further north as an area of low pressure moves through Iowa, reinvigorating the chance for showers and storms later this evening. The low that lifts north is just a mild perturbation in a broader, progressively weakening system in the northern Plains. The weakening of this parent low means that clearing will be slow to come to Deubuque, and this weekend will be plagued by chances of rain throughout the weekend as the system occludes over eastern Iowa. There may be a stray thunderstorm embedded within showers.
Tomorrow- Overcast with rain and some thunderstorms, High 74, Low 56
Sunday – Rain, heavier and with embedded storms late, High 77, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 78, Low 57
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 76, low 58
Sunday – Remaining cloudy, thunderstorms, strong late; humid High 80, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 74, Low 58
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likey, High 77, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Possible light rain throughout the day. High 80, Low 69

I’m a little cooler than most, especially on Sunday, but my logic is this: Rainy, cloudy days rarely happen when it’s 80 out. Here is the radar, with a line of storms screaming through southern Iowa.

Dubuque, Iowa

Anthony Dunkel 1 Comment

As we close in on the official start of Summer later this week, let’s take a look at how the Upper Midwest will fare over the next couple of days.

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Dubuque, IA was 68 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak boundary continues to linger from Michigan through IA back into the Central Plains. It’s the focus of scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity and looks to remain so for tomorrow. There’s a chance of scattered shower activity during the daytime hours as it shifts away from the Dubuque area, while thunderstorm activity should remain off to the south. Thursday should be on the dry side as the aforementioned boundary shifts away and in advance of another low pressure system shifting into the Dakotas. There might be some shower activity on Friday, but not Thursday!

Wednesday: Scattered showers possible. High 71, Low 61.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. High 75, Low 56.

TWC: Wednesday: Morning showers. High 75, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 56.

AW: Wednesday: Cloudy, a touch of rain. High 72, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy; comfortable. High 75, Low 56.

NWS: Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of storms. High 71, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Light rain until afternoon. High 73, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59.

There’s some light rain shower activity off to the west. We’ll see another day of this smattering of activity before things clear out.

Omaha, Nebraska

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are going to sneak on over to the home of the college World Series. This is the rare example of a previously assigned forecast working out with a big event in that town. The blog has only been around for a decade, sheesh.

At 952PM, CT, Omaha was reporting a temperature of 7 degrees with fair skies. Clouds associated with strong showers and thunderstorms have pulled into east Iowa, and Nebraska was nearly entirely devoid of clouds. A cold front swinging out of Canada intersected with weak low pressure in Iowa, and the localized circulation was doing an effective job of drawing clear, dry air into the Missouri Valley.
Father’s Day looks quite pleasant for Omaha as a result. A surface trough scooting through the Dakotas may touch off some showers in the north central part of the state, however the still lingering Canadian front will prevent moisture from really accessing the trough. Clouds will increase in the evening, but Monday doesn’t look terrible either.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 63
Monday – Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time High 88, Low 65
Monday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 83, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun; nice High 85, Low 65
Monday – Times of clouds and sun; nice High 80, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 83, Low 63
Monday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, high 80, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 63
Monday – Parly cloudy with isolated storms, High 81, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 59

Here is the very pretty satellite for Omaha, which is missing any clouds over eastern Nebraska.

Yuba City, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

All right! It’s finally time to get a forecast under our belt this month. We’ll do so with a trip to northern California, where last summer the concern was wind and wild fires. It’s been much wetter this year, so let’s hope the fire danger is mitigated.

At 758AM, PT, Yuba City was already reporting 79 degrees under fair skies. High pressure dominated the west coast, and it promised to be a hot day in the central Valley. An excessive heat advisory was already in place.
There is a weak undercutting wave moving through the north Pacific that will arrive tomorrow, and may bring some high clouds and perhaps a dose of cooler weather on Thursday. The upper ridge will diminish through the period, but the low level thermal ridge isn’t expected to go anywhere, and even if temperatures moderate, it will still be hot.
Tomorrow – Fair, High 100, Low 67
Thursday – mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. Hot. High 103, Low 68
Thursday – Mostly sunny skies High 97. Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; hot; extreme heat can be dangerous for outdoor activities High 102, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny; hot; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 95, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 101, Low 70
Thursday – Sunny and hot High 97, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 101, Low 70
Thursday – Sunny, High 94, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 101, Low 70
Thursday – Sunny, high 97, Low 67

FIO: Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 98, Low 71
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 94, low 65

Hot! Here is a look at the heat warnings, geographically, across northern California right now.

Montgomery, Alabama

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

Tonight let’s take a trip down south and see how the rest of the weekend shapes up for the lovely folks in Montgomery, AL!

At 953pm CDT, the temperature in Montgomery, AL was 74 degrees under fair skies. The tail end of a boundary is working through the TN Valley this evening, but behind it high pressure is moving in. This area of high pressure is going to keep the Montgomery area dry over the next couple of days, with just a few passing afternoon clouds anticipated. Looks like a good start to the month!

Sunday: Sunny. High 93, Low 66.
Monday: Few afternoon clouds. High 92, Low 68.

TWC: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 94, Low 65.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 68.

AW: Sunday: Mostly sunny; warm. High 90, Low 64.
Monday: Mostly sunny; warm. High 89, Low 68.

NWS: Sunday: Sunny. High 93, Low 68.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 70.

WB: Sunday: Sunny. High 92, Low 66.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 69.

WN: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 68.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 70.

FIO: Sunday: Clear throughout the day. High 93, Low 66.
Monday: Partly cloudy until evening. High 92, Low 70.

Here we see a fairly calm and clear night over the Deep South, with much of the same expected over the next couple of days.

Phoenix, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Mother’s Day to all the Moms up on Sunday night reading weather blogs!

At 551PM, PT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with overcast skies. The overcast was a high overcast, and not indicative of any significant weather in the area. There was a it of instability in the southwestern United States in conjunction with an upper level wave, but the shower activity has steered clear from Phoenix.
The tail of the jet providing the upper level instability for these showers and storms will pull west through Texas as the week begins. This will leave a weak upper level ridge in the desert Southwest, and Phoenix is in the clear to start the work week.
Tomorrow – Increasingly sunny, High 91, Low 68
Tuesday – Sunny, High 95, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 94, Low 66
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 98, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 92, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; warm High 97, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94 Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 92, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 96, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 97, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 95, Low 65
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 68

Looks like we are on the cool end. Hard to think warm thoughts when you are living a cool spring. Here is the satellite with a rogue thunderstorm closer to Yuma.

Sandusky, Ohio

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

As we start off the workweek, let’s travel to the shores of Lake Erie and see what Sandusky is up to!

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Sandusky, OH was 60 degrees under fair skies. There’s a very slow moving frontal boundary over southern Michigan and looks to sag slightly south over northern Ohio tomorrow, giving the Sandusky area a chance of shower activity. It will remain overcast throughout the day and well into Wednesday as well, despite the boundary lifting back north a bit. An area of low pressure will be intensifying during the day Wednesday as it approaches the region, but the best chance of showers with this system will be early Wednesday as the front lifts well north during the afternoon/evening and it won’t be until early Thursday morning until more significant showers/storms enter the area. Until then, it will be a murky and cool couple of days.

Tuesday: Isolated midday showers. High 59, Low 46.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers. High 57, Low 45.

TWC: Tuesday: Cloudy, isolated showers. High 56, Low 47.
Wednesday: Morning showers, windy. High 52, Low 46.

AW: Tuesday: Occasional rain and drizzle. High 57, Low 48.
Wednesday: A shower and thunderstorm around. High 52, Low 45.

NWS: Tuesday: Slight chance of showers/storms. High 58, Low 48.
Wednesday: Chance of showers then storms. High 54, Low 45.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. High 58, Low 45.
Wednesday: Chance of storms. High 51, Low 45.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High 56, Low 45.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 54, Low 45.

FIO: Tuesday: Foggy overnight. High 60, Low 49.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy thru day, breezy in afternoon. High 55, Low 46.

There’s a few light showers off to the northwest in Michigan, we’ll see these spotty showers a bit closer to home over the next couple of days.

Corpus Christi, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Whenever we can talk about inclement weather in the Plains, that usually means a steady threat of showers somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Is that place Corpus Christi for the next couple of days?

At 1051PM, CT, Corpus Christi was reporting a temperature if 75 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was smattering of clouds along the coast reflecting an onshore flow feeding thunderstorms along the dryline over west Texas. While there is indeed a strong system in the northern Plains, the threat of thunderstorms in the southern Plains was tied to the dry line, and is not going to move much further to the east.
There isn’t a lot of upper level dynamics at work in the southeastern US, but guidance is pinging on a surface low developing near Del Rio on Tuesday morning. This will tap into the return flow suppling showers further north, and begin to follow the same course. This will mean heavier showers and storms over the Corpus Christi region on Tuesday. It will be forced to oblivion as a stronger feature develops along the Colorado-New Mexico border.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 73
Tuesday — Showers and storms, especially early, High 83, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High 83, Low 73
Tuesday – Thunderstorms likely, especially in the morning…and becoming windy High 84, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – A shower in the morning, then a few strong t-storms; storms can bring flooding and damaging winds High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy; a shower or thunderstorm around, breezy and humid High 84, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy High 83, Low 75
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 74
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon. High 82, Low 74
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 83, Low 76

Here is the satellite, with interior Texas looking clear, but a line of storms near the Big Bend.