Tyler, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hi friends! I hope the holiday weekend left you recharged to attack the workweek. I think mine just made me want another week off!

At 953AM, CT, Tyler was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with sunny skies. Dew points were sultry, sitting in the mid to upper 70s across the region, feuling a surprisingly robust cluster of thunderstorms in southwest Arkansas, with some storms developing southwest into Texas, where a couple of cells were popping up just to the north of Tyler, and Gilmer was reporting thunder.
A very weak perturbation at the mid levels is sweeping through the region, beneath a similarly low powered ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. This is enough to give some semblance of organization to the thunderstorm activity across the area, however widespread convection is likely across the southeast this afternoon as broadscale northwesterly flow trails some weak rotation centered over the Carolinas. Tyler will be at the western edge of this convective activity through mid afternoon tomorrow, and a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As low pressure organizes a bit over north Florida, and gets entrained with a trough over the Gulf Stream, The northwesterly flow will subside in Texas, but so too will the stream of moisture towards Tyler. Expect a hot and humid day on Tuesday, but without the threat for rain.
Tomorrow – Hot and partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm, High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, hot High 95, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 76
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 95, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; humid High 93, Low 75
Tuesday – Partial sunshine; humid High 94, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 93, Low 76
Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 93, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly sunny,, High 94, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day.High 91, Low 73
Tuesday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72

Guidance has already proven to be a bit too cool today, so I’m anticipating that to continue for the next couple of days. It looks like The Weather Channel and I are the only two on that bandwagon, as well as the threat for storms tomorrow. They ARE tops in the standings so far this year, so I think I picked a good partner. Here is radar, with a couple of storms popping up to the north.

Gulfport, Mississippi

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

If you haven’t ever been to Gulfport, or know where it is located, Gulfport is a port on the Gulf.

At 853AM, CT, Gulfport was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with clear skies. It’s the season for light off shore convection, and indeed, there is already some off the Mississippi Delta. These Gulf Coast storms tend to be more widespread than anticipated in model guidance, and an intense rain shower cannot be ruled out today.
In the parlance, the Gulf is “open” meaning there is little to no counterflow to sea breezes, and sultry air is free to invade the coastal areas. This tends to mean that in the afternoon, there will be enough instability for occasional showers and thunderstorms, particularly a few miles inland where the sea breeze loses momentum, with storms then drifting back towards the coast as the sun sets. This will probably be the pattern each of the next two days in Gulfport, and truly, the entire Gulf Coast.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 93, Low 76
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 76
Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 93, low 77

AW: Tomorrow = Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 92, low 76
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 95, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny High 91, Low 76
Thursday – Mostly sunny, high 93, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 91, low 75
Thursday – Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, low Low 77
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 77

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, low 78
Thursday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 78

Hot. Humid. Mississippi. Here is some of this morning’s off shore convection on radar.

Madison, Wisconsin

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

It’s been quite the active day here in the Upper Midwest, with Madison getting a morning line of storms and gusts to 40mph. It’s nothing like the 75mph gusts in Dubuque, not far off to the southwest, but still quite potent in its own right. Let’s take a look at how Wisconsin’s capital city will far as we start off the month of July.

At 853pm CDT, the temperature at Madison, WI was 71 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A stationary boundary is camping out over the Upper Midwest, parked ahead of a slowly moving cold front through the northern Plains. Storms are expected to fire up over MN along this boundary Sunday evening and ride along it through WI, bringing some possible stormy weather to the area during the Monday morning hours. After this activity clears out, dry weather is expected for the afternoon and evening hours. An area of low pressure looks to shift through the region on Tuesday, bringing about another possible bout of showers and storms. Looks like it’s going to be a noisy start to the month!

Monday: Chance of morning showers/storms. High 87, Low 66.
Tuesday: Isolated afternoon thunderstorm. High 88, Low 71.

TWC: Monday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 89, Low 69.
Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 71.

AW: Monday: A shower and thunderstorm around. High 88, Low 70.
Tuesday: Strong storms, mainly later. High 85, Low 72.

NWS: Monday: Severe thunderstorms and patchy fog. High 87, Low 68.
Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 83, Low 72.

WB: Monday: Chance of storms. High 86, Low 71.
Tuesday: Chance of storms. High 85, Low 73.

WN: Monday: Partly cloudy with isolated storms. High 87, Low 68.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 83, Low 72.

FIO: Monday: Rain tonight. High 88, Low 70.
Tuesday: Possible light rain in the evening. High 83, Low 72.

Madison is quiet, for now. However, we see strong storms developing in MN this evening, and it looks like these could slide into southern WI during the morning hours tomorrow.

Casper, Wyoming

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

As temperatures are expected to soar here in the Upper Midwest this weekend, let’s venture to the Rockies and take a peek at how things will pan out in Central Wyoming!

At 1120pm MDT, the temperature at Casper, WY was 61 degrees under fair skies. Low pressure found over the Northern High Plains will shift its way into Central Canada throughout the day Saturday, trailing a boundary back into the Great Basin. Luckily for Casper, the main focus of any precip will be over the Dakotas as hot, humid air streams northward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, kicking up storms off to the east. Low pressure that develops over the Great Basin Saturday shifts into the Central Rockies on Sunday. This increased cloud clover will bring much lower temps during the day, and as the overall boundary sags a bit southward, chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday evening increases.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 57.
Sunday: Increasing clouds and cooler. Possible evening thunderstorms. High 81, Low 54.

TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 55.
Sunday: Cloudy, isolated showers. High 80, Low 54.

AW: Saturday: Partly sunny; hot. High 91, Low 55.
Sunday: Mainly cloudy; not as warm. High 80, Low 52.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny then mostly sunny and breezy. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy then chance of thunderstorms. High 85, Low 59.

WB: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 58.
Sunday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 77, Low 53.

WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 53.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 85, Low 59.

FIO: Saturday: Foggy, then partly cloudy. High 93, Low 63.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, isolated showers. High 83, Low 58.

We see a fairly quiet pattern over Wyoming, while a thunderstorm complex is keeping things interesting along the Canadian border.

Nashville, Tennessee

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Music City is our stop for this forecast. I think it’s an unfair sobriquet, frankly, because while Nashville is the home of Country Music, Memphis, just down the road, has a lot of jazz and blues history, as well as Graceland and Elvis. Gosh darn it, Tennessee should just be the Music State.

At 853AM, CT, Nashville was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees, even at this early hour. A remnant vorticity maximum was bringing thunderstorms to western Tennessee, though more broadly, the Tennessee Valley was under a broad ridge of high pressure.
After the vort max subsides, It will be warm high pressure taking hold in central Tennessee. Generally speaking, this usually means isolated showers and storms in the summertime, and that will be no different tomorrow and especially Saturday. It will be more active to the north, synoptically, but scattered afternoon showers and storms are more likely than not throughout the southeast.
Tomorrow – Stuffy, with a chance of afternoon showers and storms, High 88, low 70
Saturday – A little clearer, but still a threat for afternoon thunder, High 90, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a thunderstorm High 91, Low 69
Saturday – Partly sunny, warm; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 92, Low 69
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 92, low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 92, Low 69
Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain tomorrow evening. High 91, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, low 72

Here are the scattered storms over western Tennessee. Expect a lot less organization as the weekend rolls around.

Dubuque, Iowa

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Yes! We are forecasting for the same city in Iowa twice in a week. Anthony and I are operating on slightly different calendars, and there was overlap this week. Which of us does Dubuque best?

At 853AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 63 degrees. Winds from the east were picking up, feeding into a line of very strong thunderstorms that were barreling down I-80, passing through Marshalltown on their way to Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. The heaviest activity will remain south of Dubuque, but Dubuque won’t be completely unscathed when all is said and done.
The line of storms is a true derecho, following a stationary front that runs south of Dubuque towards Missouri and into Kentucky and Tennessee. The northwestern part of the boundary is poised to lift further north as an area of low pressure moves through Iowa, reinvigorating the chance for showers and storms later this evening. The low that lifts north is just a mild perturbation in a broader, progressively weakening system in the northern Plains. The weakening of this parent low means that clearing will be slow to come to Deubuque, and this weekend will be plagued by chances of rain throughout the weekend as the system occludes over eastern Iowa. There may be a stray thunderstorm embedded within showers.
Tomorrow- Overcast with rain and some thunderstorms, High 74, Low 56
Sunday – Rain, heavier and with embedded storms late, High 77, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 78, Low 57
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 80, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 76, low 58
Sunday – Remaining cloudy, thunderstorms, strong late; humid High 80, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 74, Low 58
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likey, High 77, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 81, low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 72, Low 61
Sunday – Possible light rain throughout the day. High 80, Low 69

I’m a little cooler than most, especially on Sunday, but my logic is this: Rainy, cloudy days rarely happen when it’s 80 out. Here is the radar, with a line of storms screaming through southern Iowa.

Dubuque, Iowa

Anthony Dunkel 1 Comment

As we close in on the official start of Summer later this week, let’s take a look at how the Upper Midwest will fare over the next couple of days.

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Dubuque, IA was 68 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak boundary continues to linger from Michigan through IA back into the Central Plains. It’s the focus of scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity and looks to remain so for tomorrow. There’s a chance of scattered shower activity during the daytime hours as it shifts away from the Dubuque area, while thunderstorm activity should remain off to the south. Thursday should be on the dry side as the aforementioned boundary shifts away and in advance of another low pressure system shifting into the Dakotas. There might be some shower activity on Friday, but not Thursday!

Wednesday: Scattered showers possible. High 71, Low 61.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and warmer. High 75, Low 56.

TWC: Wednesday: Morning showers. High 75, Low 63.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 56.

AW: Wednesday: Cloudy, a touch of rain. High 72, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy; comfortable. High 75, Low 56.

NWS: Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 76, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of storms. High 71, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 74, Low 62.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Light rain until afternoon. High 73, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59.

There’s some light rain shower activity off to the west. We’ll see another day of this smattering of activity before things clear out.

Omaha, Nebraska

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are going to sneak on over to the home of the college World Series. This is the rare example of a previously assigned forecast working out with a big event in that town. The blog has only been around for a decade, sheesh.

At 952PM, CT, Omaha was reporting a temperature of 7 degrees with fair skies. Clouds associated with strong showers and thunderstorms have pulled into east Iowa, and Nebraska was nearly entirely devoid of clouds. A cold front swinging out of Canada intersected with weak low pressure in Iowa, and the localized circulation was doing an effective job of drawing clear, dry air into the Missouri Valley.
Father’s Day looks quite pleasant for Omaha as a result. A surface trough scooting through the Dakotas may touch off some showers in the north central part of the state, however the still lingering Canadian front will prevent moisture from really accessing the trough. Clouds will increase in the evening, but Monday doesn’t look terrible either.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 63
Monday – Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time High 88, Low 65
Monday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 83, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun; nice High 85, Low 65
Monday – Times of clouds and sun; nice High 80, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 83, Low 63
Monday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, high 80, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 63
Monday – Parly cloudy with isolated storms, High 81, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 83, Low 65
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 59

Here is the very pretty satellite for Omaha, which is missing any clouds over eastern Nebraska.

Yuba City, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

All right! It’s finally time to get a forecast under our belt this month. We’ll do so with a trip to northern California, where last summer the concern was wind and wild fires. It’s been much wetter this year, so let’s hope the fire danger is mitigated.

At 758AM, PT, Yuba City was already reporting 79 degrees under fair skies. High pressure dominated the west coast, and it promised to be a hot day in the central Valley. An excessive heat advisory was already in place.
There is a weak undercutting wave moving through the north Pacific that will arrive tomorrow, and may bring some high clouds and perhaps a dose of cooler weather on Thursday. The upper ridge will diminish through the period, but the low level thermal ridge isn’t expected to go anywhere, and even if temperatures moderate, it will still be hot.
Tomorrow – Fair, High 100, Low 67
Thursday – mostly sunny, High 95, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. Hot. High 103, Low 68
Thursday – Mostly sunny skies High 97. Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; hot; extreme heat can be dangerous for outdoor activities High 102, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny; hot; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 95, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 101, Low 70
Thursday – Sunny and hot High 97, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 101, Low 70
Thursday – Sunny, High 94, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 101, Low 70
Thursday – Sunny, high 97, Low 67

FIO: Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 98, Low 71
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 94, low 65

Hot! Here is a look at the heat warnings, geographically, across northern California right now.

Montgomery, Alabama

Anthony Dunkel Leave a comment

Tonight let’s take a trip down south and see how the rest of the weekend shapes up for the lovely folks in Montgomery, AL!

At 953pm CDT, the temperature in Montgomery, AL was 74 degrees under fair skies. The tail end of a boundary is working through the TN Valley this evening, but behind it high pressure is moving in. This area of high pressure is going to keep the Montgomery area dry over the next couple of days, with just a few passing afternoon clouds anticipated. Looks like a good start to the month!

Sunday: Sunny. High 93, Low 66.
Monday: Few afternoon clouds. High 92, Low 68.

TWC: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 94, Low 65.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 68.

AW: Sunday: Mostly sunny; warm. High 90, Low 64.
Monday: Mostly sunny; warm. High 89, Low 68.

NWS: Sunday: Sunny. High 93, Low 68.
Monday: Sunny. High 91, Low 70.

WB: Sunday: Sunny. High 92, Low 66.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 69.

WN: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 68.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 70.

FIO: Sunday: Clear throughout the day. High 93, Low 66.
Monday: Partly cloudy until evening. High 92, Low 70.

Here we see a fairly calm and clear night over the Deep South, with much of the same expected over the next couple of days.