We’re deep into the dog days of Summer now, as families are enjoying the last couple of weeks of Summer Vacation before they have to worry about kids going back to school. As expected, conditions are hot and humid across the South, but lately it’s been kicked up a notch above even where locals are accustomed too.
Houston has hit 101 degrees for a third day in a row now, the first time they’ve done that since 2015 when they went 102 102 106 (yikes!). Combined with that has been dew points approaching 80, cranking up the heat index around the metro to 115-120 degrees. Doesn’t look like much relief is on the way either in the coming days.
Pensacola hit 97 yesterday, breaking a high temperature record for the 2nd day in a row. On top of that, potent afternoon thunderstorms then parked overhead dumping over 3.5 inches of rain on the city, also a record for the day. Like Houston, these sweltering conditions are expected to persist for the next couple of days with heat index readings around 110.
Luckily, the residents along the Gulf Coast don’t have to worry about any tropical systems developing over the next several days as the Atlantic Basin is in a pretty quiet pattern right now. However, the intense heat and almost unbearable humidity doesn’t look to relent anytime soon. Stay indoors and cool if you can!
We are going to sneak close to home tonight, going down to Rochester, the home of the Mayo Clinic.
At 1254AM, CT, Rochester was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with fair skies. Low pressure moving through northern Manitoba is inducing a lot of low level moisture northward, and dewpoints across the region were high. Fog is likely to settle in in low lying areas overnight, particularly given the clear skies. Between the low in Manitoba and the remnants of a system in northern Quebec, there has been a rise in instability in the Upper Midwest, with scattered showers through Wisconsin on Saturday. The Manitoban low will bring some drier air into northern Minnesota on Sunday, and continue through the southern part of the state on Monday. As a result, shower and storm activity will become more voluminous, and depending on the available energy, there is a chance for some severe weather in the Rochester area on Monday. Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 85, Low 64 Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 66
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 85, Low 65 Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 81, Low 68
AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine; humid High 84, Low 65 Monday – A strong afternoon thunderstorm; storms can bring flooding downpours, large hail and damaging winds High 82, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 85, Low 63 Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 85, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, patchy fog in the morning, High 84, Low 65 Monday – Numerous showers and thunderstorms, high 82, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 85, Low 63 Monday – Partly cloudy with numerous thunderstorms, High 85, Low 66
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 85, Low 65 Monday -Rain in the afternoon and evening. High 83, Low 69
The timing everyone has for precipitation is all different. Several outlets have rain starting shortly after midnight on Monday, while others don’t have it until the evening. Meanwhile, we have a chance on Sunday. Here is a loop of the day’s satellite imagery, showing the thunderstorms moving through Wisconsin, and fog developing up by Duluth.
Something about Pocatello always seemed interesting to me. If I’m being honest, I think I just like the way the name sounds.
At 127PM, MT, Pocatello was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with a brisk wind from the northeast, right down the Snake River Valley. There is a general area of showers in the higher terrain east of Idaho Falls contributing to the brisk winds, and any lightning that results from these showers will be particularly dangerous, as the region is tinder dry. A weak ridge over the Rockies is no match for the monsoon, which will continue to bring showers and storms to the Tetons, particularly in the afternoon for the next two days. Showers and storms aren’t likely to settle down into Pocatello, but similar to today, wind is likely to rush in and the fire threat probably won’t abate. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hot, High 95, Low 53 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 96, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 94, low 57 Wednesday – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. High 91, Low 61
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; hot High 95, Low 58 Wednesday – Rather cloudy High 92, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, low 61 Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 91, Low 61
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 89, Low 57 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 60 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 63
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, low 59 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 62
Look at that range in high temperature forecasts! For a forecast with no rain involved, we can brand this as E for exciting. Here is a look at the radar, with those storms over the Tetons.
Sumter is sort of an in between town. It’s not a coastal town, but it’s not very far inland either. What is the leading factor in the weather in Sumter? I reckon’ we’re about to find out.
At 1055AM, ET, Sumter was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with sunny skies. After a muggy weekend, an unseasonably strong cold front has swept unpleasantness off the coast, and high pressure has built into the Carolinas. The remnant boundary will lay astride of the coast, and within the convective remainder, a tropical wave will become involved and briefly intensify before pulling the dry continental air further into South Carolina, and the showers and storms at sea further into the Sargasso. All the while, Sumter looks to enjoy a whole lot of sunshine. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65 Saturday – Hot but clear, High 90, low 64
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 88, low 66 Saturday – Plentiful sunshine High 89, Low 65
AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 87, Low 66 Saturday – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 65
NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 88, Low 67 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 87, Low 68 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 87, low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 88, Low 67 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 89, low 65
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 69 Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 67
All told, especially after this past week, that’s not really a bad outlook for South Carolina. Here is a look at the western Atlantic satellite, showing the instability off shore.
Today seems to be an interesting day in the weather department, particularly in western Michigan. How interesting? Why don’t we find out?
At 1155AM, ET, despite a stiff breeze off of Lake Michigan, Muskegon was reporting 87 degrees, clear skies and a dew point of 70. While the heat was oppressive nearly everywhere, the instability was mounting. A area of low pressure in the lee of the Rockies extended a weak stationary boundary towards Hudson Bay, and it appears that this is the perfect vehicle for a severe outbreak tonight. Tomorrow, the stationary front will begin to sink southward as a slow moving cold front, which will bring in more comfortable and more stable air, but before that on Saturday, another similar looking squall line will role through Michigan with a little more intensity than the one that will arrive late tonight. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible, particularly tomorrow afternoon, with lighter rain in the evening. Clouds will linger through the morning on Sunday, however they will clear to the south, and much more moderate air will take over western Michigan to conclude the weekend. Tomorrow – Clouds, with rain and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening, High 86, Low 72 Sunday – Early clouds then clearing and pleasant, High 80, low 65
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 86, Low 73 Sunday – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 82, Low 68
AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness, warm, very humid; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm around High 86, Low 75 Sunday – A passing morning shower; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 82, Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 76 Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, High 82, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84, low 73 Sunday – Partly sunny until midday, then becoming mostly sunny. A 40 percent chance on showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 69
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 87, Low 77 Sunday – Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 82, Low 69
FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain tomorrow evening. High 88, Low 73 Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 69
This is the rare non-standard day in the heat of summer. Tonight, the temperature will only get down to about 80 degrees, which is uncomfortable.
With all the focus on the 50th anniversary of the Moon Landing, I think that a trip to the Space Coast and a rapidly developing town near Cape Canaveral is very appropriate.
At 336PM, ET, Deltona was reporting a temperature of 88 degrees, and thunderstorms in the vicinity. In fact, they were reporting lightning from all quadrants. It paints a more aggressive picture than what radar indicates. but there is a band of storms south and east of town that is the most robust. It’s that time of year for Florida, in which the dynamics are very small scale, reliant on the temperature profiles of see and land as opposed to any broad scale waves. Indeed, Deltona is going to be answerable only to the day time seabreezes as opposed to any broad scale flow pattern. Expect carbon copies of the next two days, with thunderstorms fairly likely, thanks to Deltona’s position set inland. Tomorrow – Scattered PM thunderstorms, High 95, low 77 Saturday – Scattered PM Thunderstorms, High 95, Low 77
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon high 92, Low 75 Saturday – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 93, Low 75
AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 92, Low 75 Saturday – Partly sunny, a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 93, Low 75
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot, High 95, Low 77 Saturday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny and hot, High 96, Low 77
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon, High 91, Low 78 Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon, High 90, low 78
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 93, Low 76 Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 95, Low 75
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 76 Saturday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 75
Hot and humid. Exactly what we want from Florida in July. Here is a look at the radar in central Florida.
My favorite weather related fun fact about Huntsville is that it is the Weather Service office with the smallest geographic footprint. This is because of the preponderance of severe weather, but also because of the historic technical aptitude and home of the space program.
At 853AM, CT, Huntsville was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. More importantly, they were also reporting a dew point of 72, ensuring that the morning would have a fairly damp feel, thanks to lingering fog and morning dew and condensation. There was a weak pressure trough in central Tennessee that was kicking up clouds across the region, but they are expected to shift swiftly out of the area, rendering the Huntsville area, along with most of the southeast, extremely warm for the rest of the day. Low pressure is camped out in eastern Canada and the north Atlantic, without any real plans to leave. This will force a steady southwesterly flow, drawing Gulf moisture through the already sultry air, leaving a persistent threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the region. These are likely to be a blessing, as they should relive some of the heat. Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 91, Low 72 Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 72
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.High 91, Low 73 Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms High 87, Low 73
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (PM storms) High 91, low 73 Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sun, a couple of thunderstorms around High 87, low 73
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny high 94, Low 74 Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 93, low 75
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 90, Low 77 Saturday – Partly cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning and numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, high 88, low 77
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, high 94, low 74 Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms, High 93, Low 74
FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain tomorrow evening.High 90, Low 74 Saturday – Possible light rain in the evening. High 87, Low 73
the GFS and NAM are fairly different in temperature forecasting, and there is a similar discrepancy in forecasts. The NAM is warmer, suggesting fewer storms, but the GFS anticipates more cloud cover. Which will play out? I split the difference, like a coward. Here is that satellite, showing the current clouds in Tennessee and north Alabama.
Hi friends! I hope the holiday weekend left you recharged to attack the workweek. I think mine just made me want another week off!
At 953AM, CT, Tyler was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with sunny skies. Dew points were sultry, sitting in the mid to upper 70s across the region, feuling a surprisingly robust cluster of thunderstorms in southwest Arkansas, with some storms developing southwest into Texas, where a couple of cells were popping up just to the north of Tyler, and Gilmer was reporting thunder. A very weak perturbation at the mid levels is sweeping through the region, beneath a similarly low powered ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. This is enough to give some semblance of organization to the thunderstorm activity across the area, however widespread convection is likely across the southeast this afternoon as broadscale northwesterly flow trails some weak rotation centered over the Carolinas. Tyler will be at the western edge of this convective activity through mid afternoon tomorrow, and a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As low pressure organizes a bit over north Florida, and gets entrained with a trough over the Gulf Stream, The northwesterly flow will subside in Texas, but so too will the stream of moisture towards Tyler. Expect a hot and humid day on Tuesday, but without the threat for rain. Tomorrow – Hot and partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm, High 94, Low 76 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, hot High 95, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 76 Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 95, Low 76
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; humid High 93, Low 75 Tuesday – Partial sunshine; humid High 94, Low 76
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 93, Low 76 Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 75
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 93, Low 76 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 75
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 76 Tuesday – Mostly sunny,, High 94, Low 75
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day.High 91, Low 73 Tuesday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72
Guidance has already proven to be a bit too cool today, so I’m anticipating that to continue for the next couple of days. It looks like The Weather Channel and I are the only two on that bandwagon, as well as the threat for storms tomorrow. They ARE tops in the standings so far this year, so I think I picked a good partner. Here is radar, with a couple of storms popping up to the north.
If you haven’t ever been to Gulfport, or know where it is located, Gulfport is a port on the Gulf.
At 853AM, CT, Gulfport was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with clear skies. It’s the season for light off shore convection, and indeed, there is already some off the Mississippi Delta. These Gulf Coast storms tend to be more widespread than anticipated in model guidance, and an intense rain shower cannot be ruled out today. In the parlance, the Gulf is “open” meaning there is little to no counterflow to sea breezes, and sultry air is free to invade the coastal areas. This tends to mean that in the afternoon, there will be enough instability for occasional showers and thunderstorms, particularly a few miles inland where the sea breeze loses momentum, with storms then drifting back towards the coast as the sun sets. This will probably be the pattern each of the next two days in Gulfport, and truly, the entire Gulf Coast. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 93, Low 76 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76
TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 76 Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 93, low 77
AW: Tomorrow = Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 92, low 76 Thursday – Mostly sunny High 95, Low 76
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny High 91, Low 76 Thursday – Mostly sunny, high 93, Low 76
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 91, low 75 Thursday – Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, low 75
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, low Low 77 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 77
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, low 78 Thursday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 78
Hot. Humid. Mississippi. Here is some of this morning’s off shore convection on radar.
It’s been quite the active day here in the Upper Midwest, with Madison getting a morning line of storms and gusts to 40mph. It’s nothing like the 75mph gusts in Dubuque, not far off to the southwest, but still quite potent in its own right. Let’s take a look at how Wisconsin’s capital city will far as we start off the month of July.
At 853pm CDT, the temperature at Madison, WI was 71 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A stationary boundary is camping out over the Upper Midwest, parked ahead of a slowly moving cold front through the northern Plains. Storms are expected to fire up over MN along this boundary Sunday evening and ride along it through WI, bringing some possible stormy weather to the area during the Monday morning hours. After this activity clears out, dry weather is expected for the afternoon and evening hours. An area of low pressure looks to shift through the region on Tuesday, bringing about another possible bout of showers and storms. Looks like it’s going to be a noisy start to the month!
Monday: Chance of morning showers/storms. High 87, Low 66.
Tuesday: Isolated afternoon thunderstorm. High 88, Low 71.
TWC: Monday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 89, Low 69.
Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 71.
AW: Monday: A shower and thunderstorm around. High 88, Low 70.
Tuesday: Strong storms, mainly later. High 85, Low 72.
NWS: Monday: Severe thunderstorms and patchy fog. High 87, Low 68.
Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 83, Low 72.
WB: Monday: Chance of storms. High 86, Low 71.
Tuesday: Chance of storms. High 85, Low 73.
WN: Monday: Partly cloudy with isolated storms. High 87, Low 68.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 83, Low 72.
FIO: Monday: Rain tonight. High 88, Low 70. Tuesday: Possible light rain in the evening. High 83, Low 72.
Madison is quiet, for now. However, we see strong storms developing in MN this evening, and it looks like these could slide into southern WI during the morning hours tomorrow.
