We are in late spring at this point, and have been undergoing a somewhat early season-ish spell, in which systems were charging through the southern US, leaving the northern US unaffected. As a local resident who was battered through the winter, I fairly appreciate that. It has made for a a chillier stretch through mid-May though, and that is what Iowa City was experiencing towards the beginning of last week. Without a feature moving through on Tuesday, temperatures soared into the 80s, however the next day, a system in the Tennessee Valley brought temperatures in Iowa City back down to the low 80s for a high. Forecasts were fine, though with mostly clear skies we would all like to have done better. The Weather Service and Accuweather drew level for this forecast. Actuals: Tuesday, High 81, Low 57 Wednesday – High 73, Low 52
So many years in a row, we’ve been talking about premature tropical storms, or the ongoing western drought. This season, if there are any major stories, they are of the short lived, spring tornado variety. You know, the type of scenario you would expect if you’ve studied American climatology.
A robust snow season led to considerable concern for a massive flood season, especially in the Upper Midwest and further south through the Mississippi Valley. Fortunately, despite all the snow that the Dakotas and Minnesota saw this season, Iowa saw very little, and instead of aggregating, the threat for downstream flooding withered away. There was flooding in typical spots in the Upper Midwest, but nothing that was particularly overwhelming. Places that are often underwater were once again underwater for a couple of days.
The heavy snow also afflicted the Sierras in California, and while the melting of the season did fill some reservoirs and watery spots that aren’t accustomed to be watery, the snow really served as a net positive, scuttling years of drought, and rescuing the local agricultural economy. In fact, there isn’t even a forecast for drought to return this season. Its part of a nationwide drought recovery forecast this summary, and surely the most notable part.
There is nothing to say that the tropical season won’t be just as active as the forecasts call for either, but that activity had stretched outside of the early bounds of the normal Atlantic hurricane season multiple times in the last decade or so. There are only 10 days until the North Atlantic Season starts, and we still await our first A storm, and will likely wait until the season begins.
There are still plenty of weather stories to continue to monitor and keep your eyes on, but this season is a full reset on a lot of the major weather stories that started the 2020s. For now, we are back to “normal”.
Its forecast time, friends! It’s been stormy to begin May in Iowa, and the nearby town of Coralville was winged by a tornado not a month ago. I suspect we will enjoy a bit more tranquil weather this week.
At 1152AM, CT, Iowa City was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. It was a bit cooler than might typically be expected in May in eastern Iowa, thanks to low pressure parked over eastern Kansas. In fact, Iowa City was a bit warmer than points westward, where a northerly flow was pressing into the region. Upper level flow is weak, so a look towards lower levels will help dictate the weather through the middle of the week. As the low center moves nearly due eastward through the Ohio Valley, mostly cloudy to overcast conditions will remain in place through tomorrow morning. Finally, there will be a breakthrough in the afternoon, with sunnier skies and warmer temperatures. The tail of a cold front will slump southward through the Upper Midwest, drawing some southerly flow to the region, followed by a dip in temperatures as flow switches to northerly once again on Wednesday Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 55 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 80, Low 54 Wednesday – Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 51
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with times of clouds and sun High 81, Low 54 Wednesday – Mostly sunny and beautiful High 76, Low 52
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 79, Low 53 Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. High 78, Low 53 Wednesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 53 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 52
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 52 Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 52
Quite a bit of overcast for the state of Iowa this afternoon, but a warm up is on the way.
Now with forecasts of severe weather and a pending heat wave, it seems like a long time ago that we were talking about the chilly start to the month, as we were in Youngstown.. Well, I guess it was, not that it is already the 14th, but I digress. There was indeed some light snow mixed with rain on the 2nd, which is far too deep into the spring season for my taste. The forecast was a pretty neat affair, with little separating the top forecast from the bottom. The Weather Service and WeatherNation split honors, with a 4 way tie for second just behind them. Actuals: Monday, May 1st, .31 inches of rain/snow, High 46, Low 38 Tuesday, May 2nd, .39 inches of rain and snow, High 43, Low 37
April was generally cooler than normal for a large swath of the country, and for a long stretch of the time. Lets try to remember the month fondly, though. There was at least one week where the temperatures were in the 80s here in Minneapolis! And Clime can remember things fondly as well, as they were hot in the month of April as well. They secured the top spot for the month.
I think that there is fairly universal consensus that the best kind of weather is where highs are in the 60s – warm but not too hot- with plenty of sun. As it worked out, that is exactly the weather that Pine Bluff saw on April 24th. The 23rd was cooler with some rain, which made the 24th seem even better. It felt the best, perhaps, for the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who tied for the top forecast. Actuals: April 23rd: .03 inches of rain, High 57, Low 46 April 24th, High 66, Low 43
We are headed to northeastern Ohio for our month ending forecast. It should be getting warmer right? Right?
At 451PM, ET, Youngstown was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with cloudy skies and a brisk west-northwest wind. Low pressure is parked over southern Ontario, and is bringing continuing bands of rain to the upper Ohio Valley. At present, the heaviest rain is falling over central Pennsylvania, while another band of lighter showers is evident on radar along I-77 between Canton and Cambridge. The center of circulation isn’t going to be urged out of Ontario until after the entrance to a strong jet trough comes into being. That won’t be until Wednesday or Thursday of next week, which means reinforcing chilly flow will continue in Youngstown until then. The surface feature is going to continue occluding through the next couple of days, so clouds and rain will become lighter over time. Unfortunately, that makes it more likely for even chillier temperatures as time goes on. It will be quite breezy throughout the beginning of the week, making already cool temperatures feel even chillier. Tomorrow – Scattered showers throughout the day, High 48, Low 38 Tuesday – Lighter showers with an isolated peek of sunshine, High 44, Low 34
TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 47, Low 39 Tuesday – Rain and snow showers in the morning transitioning to light rain in the afternoon. High 41, Low 36
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, breezy and colder with a touch of rain High 45, Low 39 Tuesday- Breezy in the morning; cloudy and cold with a passing shower or two; there can be some wet snowflakes mixed in High 42, Low 35
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm High 48, Low 38 Tuesday – Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after 9am. High 44, Low 36
WB: Tomorrow – Showers. A slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, High 46, Low 40 Tuesday – Snow showers in the morning. Showers, High 41, Low 36
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 48, Low 38 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 44, Low 36
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 45, Low 37 Tuesday- Rain showers, High 42, Low 35
Frankly, I think any snow shower activity on Tuesday morning will be inconsequential. Like, a flake or two just to make people feel bad because it will be May 2nd. I don’t have the heart to include it in my forecast. Radar is fairly active, reflective of the larger storm centered to the north.
We don’t have much on the calendar for the next couple of days, but hopefully, we will go through March with time to dig into the bigger weather stories of the day.
The historic snow in the northern United States this winter is leading to some significant flooding impacts, starting in Minnesota, but probably working downriver. Our route, less than a day between Alabama and Arkansas, covering 361 miles, cross the mighty Mississippi at Helena, Arkansas, where the River is already pretty wide, and the bridge is tall. Hopefully, that means the only worries we end up having are with the ongoing weather impacts, rather than the impacts of precipitation many months ago. We’ll pass by the Mississippi Valley at a meandering 60mph pace, which at this rate, might take us a full 15 minutes to drive over the bridge.
Birmingham, Alabama
If you find yourself living in any part of the United States’ contiguous states, you are probably experiencing or will soon experience, below normal temperatures. If not, you are probably on the West Coast, and this blog is probably not the first click in your morning surf. But the below normal weather in the east is the result of a stout area of high pressure extending from Canada all the way into the American Southeast. This will keep the drive through Alabama and Mississippi pretty tranquil. An area of low pressure is going to start emerging tonight and tomorrow in the Southern Plains and start to feast on moisture banked in Texas. A weak warm front will start sneaking north in Arkansas which could bring some late puffy cloudy to the Pine Bluff area. They aren’t likely to bring rain before our drive is over, but expect a wet middle to the week in Pine Bluff.
It’s time for a forecast in Arkansas. Arkansas finds itself between the Dixie Alley and the more traditional Tornado Alley in the high Plains, and sees it’s fair share of twisters. This is the time of year for them, but will that be the case this week?
At 953PM, CT, Pine Bluff was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with overcast skies. Surface low pressure over the Great Lakes is dragging a cold front through northern Louisiana. A chilly north wind is blowing throughout Arkansas, and while much of the state is expected to cool significantly overnight, it will likely be slow to do so in Pine Bluff. A jet running parallel to the base of the trough is suspending the cold front, leaving clouds across southern Arkansas, and preventing radiational cooling. Amid the clouds are a few light rain showers streaming across Arkansas, but dropping dew points in the area are preventing all the rain seen on radar from reaching the ground. In the entrance area of the southern jet, there is going to be some disorganized shower and thunderstorm development. Onshore flow in the region will bring about enough moisture and potential energy for some rain and embedded thunderstorms across east Texas, with some activity spilling eastward. The best threat for rain will be on Sunday, wrapping up late in the evening. Monday should mostly be dry, but unseasonably cool. More clouds are expected to move in late on Monday. Tomorrow – Scattered showers ending in the late evening, High 55, Low 45 Monday – Mostly sunny, with clouds returning late, High 65, Low 40
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies (early rain). High 59, Low 46 Monday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 69, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cooler High 59, Low 48 Monday – Mostly cloudy High 69, Low 43
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of rain before 9am. Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 45 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning. High 68, Low 47 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 58, Low 45 Monday – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 42
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 61, Low 45 Monday – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 43
Model guidance is falling short of the blend and consensus temperature forecasts. We’ll see who is better, man or machine. Rain has moved into Pine Bluff since I started writing this forecast.
