Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s been delightful here in Minnesota today, and I can’t imagine it’s been much different over in the Fox Valley.

At 1053PM, CT, Fond du Lac was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures are going to continue cooling off this evening thanks to the clear skies and dew points down in the 30s. A thermal ridge is parked over the middle of the country, so the cool down will be quickly forgotten after sunrise tomorrow.
A very week wave is going to ripple through the region tomorrow. It will take temperatures away from the record highs seen today, and provide a few clouds, but expect a dry day in Fond du Lac. A strong trough is bringing more mountain snow to the northern Rockies will continue to progress and develop rapidly into a strong area of low pressure in the southern High Plains. A warm front will become evident in the mid-Mississippi Valley, but it will not be an issue in Fond du Lac on Wednesday. Moisture coming into the region will lead to some additional clouds for Fond du Lac, but the rain will wait until Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and cooler, High 60, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 69, Low 43
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies High 62, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon High 68, Low 45
Wednesday – Sun through high clouds and remaining warm High 62, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny,  High 60, Low 39

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the evening then clearing, High 65, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 57, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 46
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 40

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 37

It’s going to be busy aloft, but not much is actually going to go on in the city of Fond du Lac. Not until Thursday, anyway.

One last chill before spring

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It sure seemed like the cold air that trailed last weekend’s winter storm is a last gasp of the winter, given how warm it is going to be this week. Peoria even had the dignity to be colder than forecasts originally indicated by a handful of degrees. One outlet pegged the high temperature forecast on both days, thanks to a cooler numbers than most of the other outlets (except Weatherbug, of course). That top forecaster was The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday – High 45, Low 33
Sunday – High 49, Low 30

Grade: A – C

Cooler air coming, but big snow not likely

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The conversation I keep hearing is people being reluctant to say we are at the end of winter, because in recent years, we have seen late March and April snows. It’s been a mild winter, and many Midwestern residents can’t accept that it might just be mild all the way through.

Well, through the middle of March, we have a trend for below normal temperatures, which could certainly make some people think it is a return of winter, but significant moisture isn’t going to come with that cool down, save, perhaps, for the Great Lakes.

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A fairly inauspicious feature moving through the Great Lakes yesterday has tapped into some cold air as it arrives in the mid Atlantic. There is mixed precipitation east of the Great Lakes, and some snow falling in the terrain of the Poconos.

Peoria, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

This part of the country, this time of year, you could really get anything out of a forecast. That is pretty exciting, and also could lead to some very peculiar forecasts.

At 1054PM, CT, Peoria was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with overcast skies. A brisk northwest wind was filling the wake of some steady rain with clear and chilly air. After a soggy day in central Illinois, the last remaining bits of rain had moved nearly entirely into Indiana as a trough is swinging into the area at the upper levels, riding north of a strong jet propelling heavier storms in the southeastern US.
At the surface, a pair of low pressure centers will gently orbit around each other, slowing their poleward advance. Behind this agglomeration, high pressure is going to emerge in the Plains, and drift eastward, bringing a dry weekend to Peoria. The ridge will also lay over the top of a thermal ridge, which means temperatures, though chilly tonight, will not remain so.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 33
Sunday – Sunny, High 53, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 45, Low 34
Sunday – A mainly sunny sky. High 49, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness; breezy in the afternoon; clocks spring ahead 1 hour at night High 47, Low 36
Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 51, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 49, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 45, Low 39
Sunday – Sunny, High 46, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 45, Low 36
Sunday – Sunny, High 48, Low 27

CLI:: Tomorrow – Clear, High 46, Low 34
Sunday – Sunny, High 50, Low 28

I am not sure about the chaser rain forecast that some outlets have tomorrow. I think it will be fine. I don’t often post such a broad radar, but it really gives the scope of the inclement conditions out there this evening, affecting a lot of people.

Expect a stormy start to the weekend

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Slight risk for 3/8

The early part of severe weather season gets it’s typical kickoff in what some people call the “Dixie Alley” which is focused primarily around Mississippi. We aren’t anticipating a massive outbreak on Saturday, but storms are indeed expected the next few days, starting today in west Texas and ending Saturday in Georgia and South Carolina. That leaves tomorrow for, you guessed it, Mississippi.

Low pressure is getting organized today in West Texas, giving rise to our first round of potential severe weather. Storms should be isolated, supercellular storms this afternoon and evening. Not everyone will see storms, but those that do will be threatened by tornadoes and large hail, centered around an area bound by Abilene, Fort Worth and Waco, but possible north into western Oklahoma as well.

The system will evolve overnight and after today’s activity, with the main, original area of low pressure rocketing towards the Great Lakes, and a surface low re-emerging in the ArkLaTex region. The entire system will be more sheared than it will be today, which will mean a lower likelihood of large standalone supercells, however a line of smaller such cells which ultimately form into a line of strong thunderstorms is the likely mode storms tomorrow evening. The greatest threat for severe weather will start around Shreveport before continuing through the night past Jackson and ultimately towards Montgomery.

By the time that Saturday rolls around. we are likely only to be tracking a line of strong thunderstorms. The tornado threat will be limited, but gusty straight line winds and hail are going to be pushing through the Peach, Palmetto and northern Sunshine state before dark on Saturday.

Two points to make about all of this. First, model guidance isn’t all on the same page for severe weather on any of these days. There could certainly be some big storms, including tornadic storms especially today, but tomorrow could ultimately be a low end severe weather day. There is only a slight risk for severe weather, accounting for the uncertainty.

Second, the individual storms will be strongest probably today, in Texas, and in the early afternoon over Louisiana and Arkansas, but will have the greatest coverage in Mississippi and eventually Alabama. After they redevelop tomorrow night, there likely is no turning these storms off until they are offshore.

As is always the case, stay tuned to your local weather authorities, and keep an eye on the weather. I described a narrow corridor, but storms are certainly possible for several miles on either side of this axis.