Logan, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re going to head to northern Utah, away from the real weather of the week, because that simply how we operate here at Victoria-Weather. Constantly missing the point.

At 851 PM, MT, Logan was reporting light snow and a temperature of 22 degrees. As the well advertised storm system begins to emerge in the southern High Plains, some of the same energy is bringing snow to the Wasatch Range. The sharp, strong trough that is the culprit behind the weather this week will transition out of the inter-mountain west by midday tomorrow, leaving the potential for some more flurries to continue into tomorrow morning in Logan.
The rest of the day and early Monday look as though they will continue to be tranquil thorough the early part of the day on Tuesday as well. The next upper level wave in the jet structure is rippling through the Gulf of Alaska, preparing to bring more wet weather to the Pacific Northwest. The storm system will press moisture beyond the Cascades and as far as northern Utah by Tuesday evening. It’s going to remain chilly in Logan, so precipitation is going to fall as snow, and will predominantly fall in higher terrain.
Tomorrow – A lingering flurry early, then increasingly sunny, High 25, Low 13
Tuesday – Sunny early, clouds and snow return late, High 27, Low 16

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 25, Low 10
Tuesday – Cloudy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later on. High 30, Low 14

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 22, Low 9
Tuesday – Cloudy with a little snow High 30, Low 12

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 24, Low 9
Tuesday – Snow, mainly after 11am. High 29, Low 11

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny (Early snow) High 17, Low 13
Tuesday – Breezy. Snow likely in the morning then snow in the afternoon. High 23, Low 13

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 24, Low 13
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 30, Low 11

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 24, Low 12
Tuesday – Blowing snow, High 32, Low 15

I’ll tell you what, these mountain forecasts sure get a lot of different forecasts. It doesn’t help that Utah doesn’t ever have an over head satellite image. You can see most of the snow is over the mountains.

First round in a busy week is underway

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If there is any good news for this weekend storm, it is that along the coast, things are pretty quickly moving on. Sure, there is quickly falling snow in Springfield, Massachusetts, but that is hardly the snowy mess that we feared early in the week.

The storm is also carrying more momentum that it had, even as recently as Thursday when we were issuing the forecast for New York City. Dry air is already moving into the Big Apple, and even the updated forecast, calling for light snow around Gotham, now seems a bit too aggressive.

The break tomorrow will last through Monday, but even as we speak, a stronger, more organized feature is reconstituting in the southern Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, this is the GFS output.

That storm will be warmer, and won’t bring the same snow to the mid – Atlantic, but it has bad intentions for the center of the country.

This next round, with the warm air, and the inherent energy tied to it, will pose a severe weather threat for the southeastern US as well. It’s a busy week after a relatively quiet holiday season, so be careful out there as we get our first real wintry smack in the eastern US.

Olympia, Washington to New York, New York

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

There is nothing more exciting than a January road trip, cross country through the northern US. What could go wrong? We’re going to travel for 5 days, covering 2,877 miles. Day 5 will be our longest day, after the first 4 days will be through after consuming 548 miles at a pace of 68.5mph. Don’t forget the scraper!

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Olympia, Washington

The rain will be falling in in western Washington as we get our drive started, and we can enjoy the Seattle area traffic in that same rain. Of course, we will be getting on I-94 near Snoqualmie, which means we will be forced to contend with some mountain snow through the Cascades. The system will be strong enough that we will still see some rain, albeit lighter, in the space between the Cascades and the northern Rockies. Visibility will be limited if we have designs on seeing Spokane as we pass by. The snow will return again in the western faces of the Rockies along the Idaho-Montana border, but the precipitation will finally be squeezed out of the feature, and when e get into the eastern facing valleys, ultimately stopping in Bearmouth, Montana, which is between Butte and Missoula.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
The system in question is headed southward through the weekend, which will rob Montana of much by way of potential snowfall. Upsloping flow will make it a little bit warmer from Bozeman to Big Timber. There will still be clouds throughout eastern Montana, but the precipitation will dry up as we hit flatter ground. We will reach the northeast corner of Wyoming and the small town of Colony to stop for the night.

DAY THREE (Monday)
While we sleep, the low pressure center is going to sink further south and east, tapping into some serious Gulf moisture as it intensifies. The bulk of the moisture is going to be spent in the central Plains, but an inverted trough will set up in the Upper Midwest. There will be a little bit of snow in western South Dakota overnight, but as we get moving, the first chance for falling snow will be around Chamberlain, as we cross the Missouri River. I say falling snow, because in South Dakota, there are no trees and there is a bunch of wind. Don’t be surprised if blowing snow is a major issue, even with just a couple of inches, maybe less. Steadier snow will continue in eastern South Dakota and into southern Minnesota. It’s been a quiet start to the winter in Minnesota, and the snow falling will be the first they’ve seen along I-90 this winter. It should be well managed, but it will be slow driving until we reach Blue Earth for our stop.

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
Our drive Tuesday is going to be complicated, but at the same time, not so much. The system is well advertised as a big winter weather make headed for New England and the Mid Atlantic, but don’t sleep on the potential for big snow in the Great Lakes either. We will be fine, probably, through southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but it will take a sudden and fairly swift turn for the worse around Madison, and will be pretty nasty right on through Granger, Indiana, where we hope to make it for the night. Wind will be howling, making for ugly commutes throughout Chicago, as it will drive snow and make things very slow, and reduce visibility significantly. It’s a little ways out, but right now, the target maximum for snow is right through the heart of Chicago, and it could stack up 6-12″ in some spots. It will be a relief to reach Granger.

DAY FIVE (Wednesday)
The significant weather will be behind us by the time we head out on Wednesday, but much of the eastern Great Lakes will be cleaning up after this major winter storm. There will still be some howling west winds and some mountain snow through the Appalachians of Pennsylvania, but that threat will be winding down as the day continues. The wind, too, will start to wrap up as we head through the Poconos, ultimately arriving in New York, which will start getting itself back to normal as we arrive. Or whatever normal is for New York City.

New York City, New York
By Dllu – This file has been extracted from another file, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=126278106

New York, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Heading for the Big Apple for our first forecast of 2024. Absolutely no pressure, right?

At 151PM, ET, Central Park was reporting cloudy skies with a brisk northwest wind and a temperature of 44 degrees. Temperatures across the region were in the mid-40s with the northwest wind, as the area found itself between a large north Atlantic storm and a weaker system in New England. A line of showers extending from Concord, New Hampshire to White Plains was going to pass through the City in the next couple of hours, but given the presence of the offshore feature, not much rain is anticipated.
High pressure will follow the messy system into town, giving the New York area a day to prepare for the first strong winter storm seen in a couple of years. Strong low pressure is going to start organizing in west Texas overnight tonight, and begin sweeping through the Gulf Coast by morning. Saturday morning, the feature will be a formidable system centered over Mobile Bay, getting ready to press north. Meanwhile, a Clipper in the Upper Midwest will be moving eastward, supplying cold air for the pending storm. Precipitation will move in around nightfall. While snow will be persistent in New Jersey, Downstate New York and Connecticut, it will struggle to accumulate initially on Long Island, Staten Island and Manhattan. There could be an inch or two in some parts of the Bronx before Sunday rolls around. Warm air will intrude on Sunday and wash away any snow that does accumulate, but in the evening, things will get more interesting, and accumulating snow is possible even in Manhattan.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 26
Saturday – Clouds increase, with rain and some flakes mixed in late, High 38, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 40, Low 28
Saturday – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 39, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 39, Low 27
Saturday – Rather cloudy; snow and deteriorating travel conditions at night High 40, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 38, Low 28
Saturday – A chance of snow after 2pm, mixing with rain after 5pm. Cloudy, High 40, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 35, Low 26
Saturday – Cloudy. Rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation, High 36, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 37, Low 29
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a wintry mix likely, High 41, Low 32

CLI: tomorrow – Sunny, High 39, Low 27
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 37, Low 30

Well, that was a lot. I think the real chance for accumulation will be just outside of the city, and after our forecast period expires, but I can’t well leave it out, right? Here is the rain headed for NYC right now.

New

Exhibition Verification

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Only rarely are we able to post a forecast with no bearing on our annual and monthly verification competitions, so when I posted the forecast for Kansas City just a couple of days before the new year, I wanted to do something a little differently. I openly posted the forecast for Kansas City International Airport, while the other outlets had forecasts for the city of Kansas City, Missouri, which is verified downtown. As expected, it was cooler out away from the city, at the airport. The 6 outlets that forecast for downtown were almost all exactly the same in their verification, while my forecast at the airport was a hair removed from the downtown forecasters. Temperature forcing aside, it was still high pressure, and not much existed to sway anyone in any particular direction.
Actuals: (Downtown) Sunday – High 36, Low 30
Monday – High 39, Low 27

Actuals (Airport) Sunday – High 33, Low 28
Monday – High 36, Low 22

Grade: B

Forecaster of the Year

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It was an incredible year for Victoria-Weather. We easily had the highest number of “forecast wins” on the year, but that doesn’t mean we also secured the title of forecaster of the year. That comes from consistency, which was not, unfortunately, within our bailiwick this year. Accuweather took until deep into the year to even win a forecast, but they were often near the top of the charts and eventually started getting those wins. Their stability, despite the relatively few peaks, meant they they earned the crown for 2023.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Victoria-Weather10.83
The Weather Channel5.33
Clime5.33
Accuweather5
Weatherbug4.5
WeatherNation3.5
National Weather Service2.5

Happy New Year, everyone, and I hope you continue to stop here for your weather reads!

Coming together

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For the last verification of 2023, all of our forecasters consolidated around the same scores for Macon. There were no trends, to speak of, really. Aside from the Thursday high, every forecast verification had some values warmer and lower than what it turned out to be. That Thursday high was a bit warmer than anyone had projected, but not by much. So with everyone appropriately circling the mark, it just came down to who was the closest the most, and there wasn’t a lot to separate the top from the bottom. Accuweather will get credit for the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 62, Low 43
Friday – High 50, Low 35

Grade: A-B

Kansas City, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Kansas City’s larger portion is on the Missouri side of the river, but many of the large suburbs exist on the Kansas side. None of this really helps with our forecast, or dictates a different climate between the towns.

At 253PM, CT, Kansas city was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 49 degrees. West-northwest winds were blustery and bringing temperatures down a bit, but without the clouds that are being seen further to the north, it’s still a quite bearable end to the year.
The clouds and whatnot seen in the Great Lakes is a western lobe of a broader trough on the east coast. The cooler air mass is going to continue sinking further south, even without a particular threat for precipitation. This will drive an inactive cold front through Kansas City overnight, leading to a cooler day tomorrow before a stout, clear area of high pressure moves into the middle of the country.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 25
New Years Day – Sunny, High 37, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 39, Low 28
New Years Day – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 40, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Colder with times of clouds and sun High 37, Low 29
New Years Day – Mostly sunny High 41, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny,  High 36, Low 28
New Years Day – Sunny, High 37, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 35, Low 29
New Years Day – Sunny, High 36, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 28
New Years Day – Mostly Sunny, High 37, Low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 37, Low 27
New Years Day – Sunny, High 50, Low 25

Those lows in the V-W forecast are a bit lower because we used the information out of the Kansas City airport, which is well outside the city center. Check out the forecast for KCTV-5. There is a distinct focus on the Chiefs football game this weekend.

When will the blowtorch turn off?

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

It was a warm, rainy Christmas for the middle of the country, and just generally warm in the eastern third. The only areas that got a more traditional Christmas were in the northern High Plains and Rockies, which accounts for a very small fraction of the nation’s population. It’s all part of a month long trend, where temperatures have been warm enough that it’s inescapable that this will be the warmest December on record for a lot of places.

Temperatures to start 2024 look like they will continue to be warmer than normal, even after this first cold intrusion the country is undergoing in what seems like months. The jet is going to become established over the southern US at the same time, though, and this is going to start paying dividends, in the form of temperatures coming in line with normal, or in the southern US, cooler than normal.

The south riding jet is going to allow cool air to filter into the lower 48, but that isn’t the whole story. This jet will be strong and wavy, which means it will be active as well. An atmospheric river, so to speak. The strong areas of low pressure moving from the southwestern US and through the southern tier of states will help in keeping temperatures suppressed. To the north, where it is less likely to cloud over during the day, temperatures won’t end up on the cold side of normal. ‘

Right around normal is still awfully chilly for the northern US, so winter is going to feel more like winter. If that is too much to handle, then rest assured, things are going to get warm fro a lot of the country once again by the end of the month, according to the CPC’s forecast.