Back before the weather and my personal calendar got really crazy, we put together a forecast for State College, the home of Accuweather. The way today’s weather looks, we might have called Tuesday the 14th, at least, a little chilly. When you compare it to the forecast put forth by many out lets, it was quite chilly. Even Accuweather was too warm with the forecast on the 14th (which was cooled by clouds and light showers) but perfection on Monday allowed them to claim half of the day’s victory with Clime. Actuals: May 13th, High 75, Low 43 May 14th, light rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 54
Heat is building into the west, while severe weather has shifted off the east coast, which is bringing us to a bit more of a stable pattern. There are broad swaths of “slight risk” on the SPC outlook page, but that is what we expect this time of year. Big thunderstorms can crop up because of the dry line, but the good news is, the population is pretty sparse, so it doesn’t end up being too terribly injurious.
Enjoy this while we get into June, at least until the heat gets to be TOO much.
Even the most enthusiastic chasers aren’t happy chasing in metro areas. They are out for the thrill, the science and in the interest of public safety. The stories of devastation from Iowa, Nebraska, Arkansas, Texas and Kentucky over the last few weeks sicken chasers perhaps more than the average weather watcher.
Even if there wasn’t the element for human tragedy because of severe weather, populated areas are difficult to navigate because of the traffic, and are often more treed and have taller buildings, so it’s difficult to see what chasers are trying to see.
Basically, a cell by itself, in rural west Texas is pretty much the delight of storm chasers, and not far from Amarillo, which is a popular steak spot for many chasers I know.
There hasn’t been much news out of the western US this spring and early summer. That’s good news, because typically, that would mean fires. So let’s check in and see what is happening out there.
At 753PM, PT, Bend was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 70 degrees. There was a ridge at the upper levels driving weather for the Western US right now, and the clear skies should persist, especially inland in Bend through Memorial Day. There is a trough over the Gulf of Alaska, however, and it is going to swing into the Pacific Northwest. This feature does look to introduce a bit of moisture into the region. While there will be some rain in eastern Oregon, it should be dry in the immediate lee of the Cascades Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 41 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 71, Low 48
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 80, Low 41 Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower HIgh 69, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice High 78, Low 41 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny (Late rain), High 78, Low 43 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 47
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (Late rain), High 77, Low 44 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers, High 69, Low 51
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 78, Low 43 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 69, Low 47
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 41 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 77, Low 46
There are a variety of rain forecasts, none of which are heavy, so that will certainly be the variable to watch. Right now, however, there isn’t a cloud across Bend.
Another day, another big red mark on the forecast outlook. This time, it is for Saturday, and includes Oklahoma City and Kansas City. Low pressure emerging out of the Colorado Plains is going to start churning, making a tornado outbreak an unfortunately real possibility. After what has been a tough year to start, this is not how we wanted to kick off summer.
There are already watches out, covering the entirety of Iowa, some of it in a “Particularly Dangerous Situation” designated tornado watch that butts into parts of Minnesota and Illinois. There are already strong storms appearing on the map, having initiated in eastern Nebraska, with the Omaha Metro seeing more tornado warnings earlier today. The storms will rage through Des Moines though the rush hour, and depart Cedar Rapids and the Twin Cities through about 7 or 8 PM. Cedar Rapids projects to get stronger storms, but Minneapolis and St. Paul will get a whole bunch of rain.
A concern I have is that the storms, already forming a bit of a wavy pattern in western Iowa, will transform into a derecho that continues through the night. If that’s the case, then an overnight squall in Chicago or Milwaukee would be possible. The SPC captured the concern with their enhanced risk extending through Lake Michigan. Be aware of the weather in the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight!
Cleveland hosted my Minnesota Twins this weekend, and it didn’t go well for Minnesota. I hope it rains in Cleveland.
At 851PM, ET, Cleveland was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A weak surface trough running through southern Ontario was touching off some storms between Toledo and Fort Wayne, but this activity isn’t expected to continue on to Cleveland. There is a more organized complex of storms in the Plains states, but the upper level pattern is not conducive to sustaining this feature either. Expect some cloudy skies on the horizon throughout most of the day, but rainfall will never reach Cleveland on Monday. An upper level trough moving through the northern Rockies is going to aid in the development and intensification of the next feature, rising out of the Colorado prairies. This feature is expected to be another severe weather maker for the Plains, and through Tuesday, will encourage a warm front to move northward through the Buckeye State. Some scattered showers and storms will be possible over Lake Erie in the afternoon, with some carry over into Cleveland as well. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 64 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with patchy showers possible, High 87, Low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. Slight chance of a rain shower High 85, Low 65 Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 84, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 67 Tuesday – Very warm with times of clouds and sun high 84, Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 66 Tuesday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 84, Low 68 Tuesday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 84, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 67 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 81, Low 71
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 82, Low 68 Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 72
The radar is showing some of the activity northwest of town. The forecasts are showing some widely different opinions.
We forecast for Goldsboro, North Carolina at the beginning of the month, and as soon as the third, we were anticipating a day that reached nearly 90 degrees. It was 89 degrees on the third day of the month, but an upwelling of moisture on the 4th made things stickier, cloudier and a little bit cooler. There had been a forecast for some rain in Goldsboro, and while it has been stormy in the last couple of days in North Carolina, on the 4th, it was not. The Weather Channel had the first top forecast of May, Actuals: Friday, May 2nd, High 89, Low 64 Saturday, May 3rd, High 84, Low 68
There is another enhanced risk for severe weather today, this time ranging from the Texas Panhandle to south central Kansas. Surely, storm chasers are once again going to be out there, probably starting in Amarillo and getting their steak, then tracking east with the storms. For my money, the short term models seems to be favoring development in the late evening in Stillwater and Ponca City, in northern Oklahoma. Were I chaser, that’s where I would go. But I’m not! Good luck if you are.
I’m hoping that these coming days will see some regular action around the country, both with posts on the site, and mildly intriguing weather patterns.
Bend, Oregon
Road Trip from Bend to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
Houston, Texas
Killeen, Texas
Albuquerque, New Mexico Road Trip from Killeen to Albuquerque
