1051AM We had a long lead to some severe weather last week, and we are in a similar scenario this week, but unlike last week, the threat is growing ominous the closer we get to the event. Friday and Saturday will offer some strong thunderstorms, starting in the Mississippi Valley on Friday, where there is already a 30% chance of severe weather, which suggests an enhanced or moderate risk is coming in future updates. Pay attention to this one.
130PM I should have noted in the earlier update that the outbreak looks to be multiple days. Saturday has a 30% bullseye over Alabama
Poughkeepsie is definitely a candidate for the Geography Spelling Bee competition that I am starting. I am guessing that this forecast will come easier than the correct spelling and pronunciation of the town.
At 1053AM, ET, Poughkeepsie was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. It was warm across downstate New York and the surrounding areas, despite a northwest breeze, thanks to the sun this morning, and a split jet which is producing inclement weather to the south, but barricading cold air to the north. The wave to the north is bearing a weak area of low pressure through eastern Canada. the associated cool front will sweep through New England noiselessly tomorrow in the early afternoon, after which an area of high pressure will slide into the mid-Atlantic. as a result, expect a tame, pleasant albeit cooler middle of the week in Poughkeepsie. Tomorrow – Scattered clouds midday, High 65, low 37 Wednesday – Sunny and cooler, High 48, Low 35
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 33 Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (Late rain). High 51, low 33
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and warm; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity High 65, Low 31 Wednesday – Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 50, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 39 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 32
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 63, low 38 Wednesday – Partly sunny. Much cooler High 46, Low 38
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 40 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 34
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 35 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 55, Low 31
The GFS is keeping a laggard band of precipitation behind the front that the main models have in place. The NAM doesn’t have much of anything, and given the system to the south, that seems more accurate. Sorry, Weather Channel. I don’t like your chances. I do like Weatherbug’s new user interface though! Very nice. Satellite shows a channel of sunny skies, right over Poughkeepsie,
The weather in California is pretty reliable. It’s often warm, sometimes hot, with a lot of sun, and some splashes of rain. When winter rolls around, interior California gets huge amounts of snow, which later water the Central Valley with the melt in the summer. But then, when things go off kilter, you get killer heat waves and fires, or rain that falls nearer the coast and causes flash flooding and land slides. We had a forecast for San Luis Obispo last month and I’m happy to say that the nastiest it got was some morning fog, which was quickly scoured out with a steady morning breeze. Accuweather had the top forecast, which had some temperature error thanks to a chilly morning low, but ultimately everyone is glad for a couple of nice days where the only complaint might be a few minutes of fog. Actuals: February 24th, High 73, Low 45 February 25th, High 77, Low 54
2:37PM Only one severe storm ongoing right now, headed for Freeport, Florida. You’ll see it coming…. There is a LOT of lightning
827PM Storms are ongoing in the southeastern United States, but nothing is severe right now. There might not be anything severe until late this week, when storms in the Mississippi Valley could be widespread.
1055PM To tell you how far from significant weather we are tonight, I’ve encountered quite a bit of conversation on the storm at the end of the week. The storms in the Mississippi Valley, yes, but a wintry mix in the northern Plains will be difficult Friday to Saturday. But we’ve got time.
1027AM The shower activity that cropped up last night is now north of Dallas, in the Red River Valley. There is a little bit of thunder with it, but mostly, it is just here to nourish the crops. Overnight, some of those storms produced strong winds which unfortunately proved lethal and caused damage
1125pm – The threat for stronger storms has again increased late in the day. A marginal risk was plopped in Texas as a narrow band of thunder cropped up in the middle of the state, drifting north.
There are snow showers and winter weather alerts from Oklahoma to New Mexico, stemming from this very system.
Rare is the occasion that it is after 8pm, CT, there is an enhanced risk for severe weather and it hasn’t popped yet. There is a mesoscale discussion in anticipation of a looming watch in central Oklahoma and North Central Texas, and the HRRR still has storms popping around Weatherford…. soon.
This is the opening salvo of a multi day outbreak, which is also the first significant storm of meteorological spring. It’s not a surprise. Tomorrow has been flagged as a potential severe weather day since last week. If there is a surprise, it is that the SPC hasn’t upped the outlook to moderate yet. The storm still looks strong, but not any stronger than it looked days ago.
Storms tonight will feature strong winds and a threat for tornados (hence the pending tornado watch), all a part of a broken line of storms, with a stronger threat for larger tornadoes in the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, including isolated supercells. This will be the most significant of the severe weather in terms of intensity and geographic coverage, but more rough weather is likely in the Coastal Plains from the Mid Atlantic to Georgia on Wednesday.
Tonight, Oklahoma City and Dallas may be early morning recipients of the strong weather, while tomorrow, we will look at Shreveport, Jackson and Mobile and surrounding locales. Again, the headliner is tornadoes, but straight line squalls will be a factor as well.
This is all brought on by a deep, well defined and fast moving trough, a hallmark of Spring. Another hallmark of these big spring storms is that there will be snow on the back end of the feature. Ample moisture and energy will lead 4-8″ in many locations from Iowa to Michigan, including a dumping on the Upper Peninsula.
This will be a dangerous weather pattern for the middle of the country, with the first severe outbreak testing readiness, as well as probably bringing out storm chasers, making things a bit dicey on the roads. This will be the first rodeo with the slimmed down Weather Service as well, which makes weather minds tense more than normal. As I noted, this storm has been anticipated for days. The first forecasts for it may have come from meteorologists no longer employed. We won’t get this kind of preparation time often.
Oh, I’ve been working on this post long enough, look what happened:
It is a sad day across the meteorology community. I know there are political undertones to everything, but particularly with the story today that hundreds of National Weather Service employees were laid off today and rumors are that there will be more to follow. I don’t believe it is controversial to say my heart aches for the mostly young men and women who had their dream jobs, and are now unemployed.
The American government is the single largest employer of meteorologists, and all of your favorite weather people have a personal connection with the Service one way or another. The compassion we feel is personal.
A lot has been made of how impersonal and cruel the cuts have been, which naturally makes it hurt more, knowing that friends and respected cohorts were so callously discarded. This has been a tough time for all federal employees and those that love them and appreciate them. The loss of meteorologists at the NWS cuts deeper for all of us, though.
We’ll notice next week as a major severe weather outbreak hits the southeast. We will again notice for subsequent storms this summer. We’ll notice during hurricane season. Private weather companies in America are built on the back of NWS data and systems. All of us will suffer under an understaffed Weather Service.
Other nations don’t have a similar bureau, but other nations don’t have the same kind of virulent, dangerous weather in all forms. In America, the federal Weather Service is a form of public safety that is irreplaceable. Forecast models come from the NWS, unless they come from abroad. Constant worldwide coordination seems like a challenge moving forward, staffing or not.
In a world where a high premium is placed on prediction, we are in uncertain times. Weather forecasting was changed forever today, and not for the better.
In the wake of the same system that brought flurries that lingered for Sandusky, cold air spilled into Ohio Valley. Temperatures in Columbus, Indiana, for example, struggled to get out of the 20s on Friday, which meant all of our forecasts came in too warm. Things sorted themselves out a bit better on Saturday though, so the real tough spot was the first day. The Weather Channel had the best time of it on Friday, and that led to their victory for the day Actuals: Friday – High 28, Low 15 Saturday – High 36, Low 14
What are you doing this week? How about a 5 day trip to the West Coast? The drive covers 2,760 miles, which will lend itself to a pace of 67mph, and about 539 miles a day. I-40 is calling your name!
DAY ONE (Monday)
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
The first day of our journey offers good omens. Sunny skies and above average temperatures await Monday in the Ohio Valley. There will be a bit of a northwest flow off the Lakes but it won’t be cold enough for a good Lake effect fetch. Just enjoy the scenery, and end the day in Indianapolis. Wow, even starting the trip with a stop in a real city with hotels and stuff! This trip is going to be great!
DAY TWO (Tuesday)e As we enjoy the Circle City, a weak boundary, associated with a system moving through Canada, will slide through town, bringing a little sprinkle as we sleep. High pressure and more warm air will be in hot pursuit. It sounds exciting, but in effect, this just means we have more sunshine as we drive to Loma Linda, Missouri, just before the Oklahoma line.
DAY THREE (Wednesday) Flow in the Southern Plains will be a bit more turbulent on Wednesday, but only aloft. More clouds can be anticipated, but we will steer clear of any showers. That stuff will happen over central Oklahoma, long after we are through. The day in Glenrio, Texas, which is on the line with New Mexico.
DAY FOUR (Thursday) We are more than halfway through the week, and more than halfway through the drive. Our second to last day will again be marked by blue skies and comfortable temperatures. We get another good sized town in Flagstaff for our destination (as opposed to a border town)
DAY FIVE (Friday) Models are picking up on a rogue feature in the Pacific that, if realized, might bring some low clouds and drizzle to Point Concepcion. The drive from Flagstaff to the Coastal Range before that will be terrific, like the rest of the drive. Rain won’t last long or be likely, frankly, but prepare for fog and low clouds if that low is hanging offshore.
