It’s 8 days since we put together the forecast for Midland, and I can tell you that most of the country is now much cooler than it was last week. The 80 degrees I see in the forecast verification are of a bygone era. It’s in the 50s now in Midland. Proving that things are constantly changing, though, Midland will be back up in the 8os this weekend. The forecast from last Thursday was fairly simple, with warm air, and warming overnight lows to start the weekend. Decent forecasts were had by all, the best came from Weatherbug. Actuals: Friday – High 80, Low 46 Saturday – High 80, Low 57
I like writing road trip forecasts, but doesn’t this seem backwards? It’s getting into the depths of November, and the plan is to leave Orlando for New England? It’s going to take two days, including one that is quite a bit longer than the first to cover 1324 miles. The pace, largely taking I-95 northward, will be 66.7mph, covering 534 miles on the first day, and leaving a grueling day on Friday. The best we can hope is that the weather cooperates.
DAY ONE (Friday)
Orlando, Florida
Low pressure that has moved out of the middle of the country, and is parked in the now over the mid-Atlantic. An associated cold front is now pushed into the Atlantic, with colder air digging into the southeastern United States. The air will be stable behind the cold front, which means clear skies and breezy, but fairly easy driving to Vander, North Carolina, just outside of Fayetteville.
DAY TWO (Friday) Wrap around moisture is a big deal on this feature, bringing pretty heavy snow into the northern Appalachians. We will be in the dry sector, in the lee of the Appalachians to start the drive, but by the time we reach Washington, we’ll start to encounter some light precipitation. Fortunately, on this side of the system, it will be warm enough that precipitation will be falling as light rain, and will continue to fall as such until we start our turn inland in Connecticut. Some of this light rain will mix with light snow in western Massachusetts, and a wintry mix is in store for our arrival in Manchester.
This is a purely subjective take, that Carson City was on the right side of the Sierra Nevada range at the end of the week. I am not a big fan of snow, and most of it fell on the western exposures during our Thursday – Friday forecast. There were trace amounts of precipitation in Carson City during our forecast period, but the heavier activity was up by Lake Tahoe. You know, where snow lovers can keep it to themselves. Rain started falling in Carson City just before midnight which really threw things askance for our forecast grades, and ultimately led to a shared victory between the unlikely duo of Weatherbug and WeatherNation. Actuals: Thursday – rain reported, not measured, High 55, Low 37 Friday – Mix reported, not measured, High 41, low 30
It’s getting closer and closer to the winter season, and snow showing up in our forecasts. Also, this set of forecasts may take us right up to Thanksgiving, which is an entirely different set of stressors.
Fort Smith, Arkansas
Florence, Alabama Road Trip from Battle Creek, Michigan to Florence
Corvallis, Oregon
Lancaster, Pennsylvania Road Trip from Corvallis to Lancaster
It’s mid-November, and temperatures are getting cooler and days are getting shorter. Certainly, both are factors in making things a little depressing. The cold keeps us inside, and the lack of daylight makes things dark, quite literally.
But even in the daylight, it can often seem more grim. When it’s sunny, that usually means it’s colder in the morning, but another huge factor is the lower Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) that comes with winter. The LCL is level at which air lifted from the surface would reach the condensation point in the atmosphere. In practice, this is the height at which the bases of clouds form.
A given “parcel” of air will see temperatures drop at a known rate with height, based on established atmospheric physics. As we know with fog and clouds, moisture can only be retained in air to a certain temperature before it condenses. This is also why we have dew in the morning – that is when temperatures are coolest, and the air can’t hold the moisture any longer.
Cold air holds less moisture, and the atmosphere is colder in at all levels in the winter. As air at the surface is generally warmer than air aloft, it is prone to rising until it meets the LCL, at which point clouds start to form. Clouds are more likely in the cooler weather because the air can’t hold moisture, and the LCL is lower because the change in temperature from the surface to the point which the air can’t bear as much water is smaller, so those clouds are going to have low bases. There will be more clouds, and they will be lower to the ground. It’s dingy and claustrophobic, even in the day time.
But at least night comes earlier. At least spring is only 6 months away.
I was talking to someone in St. Louis today, and he was lamenting how gray it has been for a couple of days now. I lamented the same to him, here in the Twin Cities. What do you know, Cedar Rapids is right between the two! To be fair, Tuesday was sunny in Cedar Rapids, and likely felt pretty OK in the sun. The sun was not to be found on Wednesday, though, replaced by clouds, afternoon rain and cooler temperatures. Forecasts for Cedar Rapids turned out pretty well, none better than Accuweather’s. Actuals: Tuesday – High 51, Low 31 Wednesday – .11 inches of rain High 48, Low 36
Midland used to be the Weather Forecast Office that I would think about when thinking of severe thunderstorms, but in recent years, that focus has certainly shifted eastward. In mid-November, though, Midland could still provide a few forecast thrills.
AT 953AM, ET, Midland was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. An upper level ridge is parked over the Mississippi Valley, and sitting on the western flank of this ridge is allowing west Texas to remain comfortable and dry. A weak but active boundary east of the Mississippi is pushing most of the moisture in the middle of the country well away from the Lone Star State. The upper level ridge will only work to get broader while a sharply angled trough in the western US will begin to get stronger flow through it. This will lead to an increase in warm air for Midland, however the narrow but strong wave will have a difficult time translating eastward. The beginning of the weekend will be warm and pleasant for west Texas, if a bit breezy. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 47 Saturday – Sunny with a bit of a breeze, High 82, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 79, Low 47 Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 81, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy and pleasant High 76, Low 47 Saturday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 80, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 49 Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 56
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 47 Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 50 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 56
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 48 Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 81, low 54
Well, that is sure a pleasant forecast, isn’t it? Let’s just say it is probably good this forecast stops at Saturday. For now, the satellite is basically a picture of Texas.
After toiling in the Midwest pretty regularly of late, we are going to head out west, and the state capital of the Silver State. What’s up, Carson City?
At 1235PM, PT, Carson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees. An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest was directing a cold front through the Sierras. There was precipitation on the western faces of the mountains, and blustery winds over the mountains and through the eastern slopes, including Carson City, where wind speeds were gusting to 30mph. The trough off the west coast is going to remain in place for the foreseeable future, which means the low in the area is going to recycle, and flow will continue from the west into California and eventually western Nevada. The moisture won’t be robust, so it will struggle to breach the mountains until the trough itself is able to move into the Great Basin. Thursday will continue to see some patch cloudiness, but Friday will see the introduction of some light rain with a possible snowy mix into the forecast. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 50, Low 36 Friday – Chance of light showers, mixing with snow, High 45, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 51, Low 33 Friday – Mainly cloudy. A shower of rain or wet snow possible High 40, Low 30
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in places; cool High 52, low 29 Friday – Cloudy and colder High 43, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow -A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 10am. Snow level 5700 feet rising to 6200 feet in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, High 53, Low 29 Friday – Snow, mainly before 4pm. High 42, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning and then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow, High 50, Low 32 Friday – Snow likely, High 41, Low 28
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 52, Low 31 Friday – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 42, Low 28
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 51, Low 29 Friday Heavy snow showers, High 44, low 27
It wasn’t well modeled in Champaign over the weekend, but perhaps it should have been more closely monitored. Temperatures after a weak cold front moved through overnight Saturday into Sunday fell off fairly quickly Sunday night. I think most of us anticipated more clouds, or simply weren’t in on guidance’s plans, so Sunday lows were too warm, across the board. Also off were the precipitation forecasts for a couple of outlets. It did continue to rain on Sunday morning, nearly a quarter inch, which Accuweather and Clime didn’t have in their forecast. This hurt Accuweather the most, as it cost them victory for the day, instead handing it to us, Victoria-Weather. Actuals: Saturday, .43 inches of rain, High 56, Low 44 Sunday .2 inches of rain, High 67, Low 43
I don’t know what to tell you, except that the algorithm has decided to provide a bevy of eastern Iowa forecasts lately. A bevy in eastern Iowa is, of course, two.
At 352PM, CT, Cedar Rapids was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. A cool north-northwest wind dominated eastern Iowa, A large area of high pressure was seated at the center of the country, however unlike some of the summer ridges we’ve contended with this year, this ridge will be transient, and the upper level pattern is active. The ridge won’t be shifting out of the region by tomorrow, with warmer flow from the south riding a bit of a breeze. The next trough coming out of the Rockies will dislodge the ridge, and bring a modestly active line of showers with a few embedded storms to Cedar Rapids on Wednesday evening. The sharp trough is tightening and directing the low through Illinois on Wednesday. Expect cooler temperatures to wait to start intruding until early Thursday as clouds and light rain continue even through midnight, while breezy accompany the passage of the low. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 30 Wednesday – Rain and embedded thunder in the evening, High 52, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful sunshine. High 51, Low 29 Wednesday – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 53, Low 37
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and breezy High 50, Low 31 Wednesday – Variable cloudiness with showers; breezy High 50, Low 36
NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 48, Low 29 Wednesday – Showers, mainly after noon. High 51, Low 37
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 35 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon, High 49, Low 41
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 29 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with showers, High 48, Low 37
CLI: Tomorrow – Clear, High 49, Low 30 Wednesday – Rain Showers, High 51, Low 37
At some point, with a lack of clouds, it’s more of a map than a weather product, right?
