I’m settled into the new place, so hopefully, the weather remains interesting, and I can tackle these forecasts in a timely manner, few as they may be.
Road Trip from El Centro, California to Lakeland, Florida
Yuba City, California
Coming soon…
April Forecaster of the Month
It’s been a pretty wild week of weather, starting with a high risk severe day in the southern high plains, followed by a more dangerous day, as tornadoes swept through a more populous region, killing three in Golden City, Missouri, and sending an EF-3 tornado through Jefferson City. It passed very near the downtown and the State Capital causing extensive damage, a few injuries, but miraculously, no deaths. And then, just last night, a tornado passed nearly in the back yard of my in laws outside of Iowa City, Iowa. This was an EF-1, and while it caused some damage nearby, everyone is all right.
So with that in mind, it’s strange to be thinking back to April. We were fairly active back then, before Anthony went on a vacation and I moved. There was enough there to comfortably state that it was a very tight competition. The Weather Channel narrowly defeated Victoria-Weather, Accuweather, Weatherbug, and The National Weather Service to win the prize.
| Outlet | Month wins |
| National Weather Service | 1.5 |
| Accuweather | 1.5 |
| Victoria-Weather | 1 |
| Weatherbug | 1 |
| Forecast.io | 1 |
| The Weather Channel | 0.5 |
| WeatherNation | 0.5 |
Outlet | Month wins | year wins |
| Victoria-Weather | 1 | 6.5 |
| The Weather Channel | 0.5 | 6.25 |
| Weatherbug | 1 | 5.58 |
| National Weather Service | 1.5 | 5.25 |
| Accuweather | 1.5 | 4.33 |
| WeatherNation | 0.5 | 4.08 |
| Forecast.io | 1 | 4 |
Phoenix gets fired up
Hi! It’s been a while! After a bit of a hiatus, thanks to a move and a minor illness, I’m here to remind you of a forecast we issued on Mother’s Day. Phoenix is one of the few places where it is actually quite warm, and the Tuesday after Mom got her day, it hit 98 degrees. Nick Lachey might think that’s just right, but to me, it seems a bit toasty. In case you were curious, yes, Victoria-Weather was the furthest off on a forecast that was won by the tag team of Accuweather and Weatherbug.
Actuals: Monday, May 13th, High 91, Low 655
Grade A-B
Phoenix, Arizona to Lima, Ohio
Anthony is on vacation, and I am in the process of moving, so our posting has become
DAY ONE (Sunday)
We don’t usually think about the Desert Southwest when considering the threat for showers, thunderstorms and cold fronts, but a feature will be sliding into the west coast this weekend with a pretty sizeable cold front moving towards central California. It will eventually bring some rain to northern Arizona, but it looks like we will be sneaking into New Mexico with plenty of time to spare. It should be a seasonably warm day, except in the high reaches of the Rockies between Phoenix and Santa Rosa, New Mexico, the day one destination.
DAY TWO (Monday)
Monday has caught the eye of the Storm Prediction Center already as a moderate risk day. In my eyes, this means that it will almost certainly translate
DAY THREE (Tuesday)
The storm system will sit and spin over the High Plains along the Colorado/Kansas border Monday until Tuesday, which will cause dry air to cycle in from the southwest, and
DAY FOUR (Wednesday)
The cold front will get started again overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as the system spins north and loses
The Wrong time
Last week, we took a look at Corpus Christi, where a weak area of low pressure was developing along the Mexican border. The only real problem I had with it was that the rain associated with it came heavier and harder about a full day early. At least by my estimation, because the rest of the group seemed to get it right. Nobody got it right-er than The Weather Channel, who also handled a Monday that was cooler than expected.
Actuals: Monday
Tuesday
Grade: C
Racine, Wisconsin to Phoenix, Arizona
I think a nice trip down to the desert would suit the winter much better. Instead, it seems like someone in the Midwest wishing summer would arrive is getting too much too fast. The drive will take 3+ days, and cover 1771 miles. The drive will be surprisingly slow, at only a bit more than 65mph, which means the first two days will be through after 524.7 miles traveled. Chicago and some time off interstates will contribute o our delayed transit, but also provide a chance for more scenery.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
All right, let’s go! Midwest driving is the best. Wide open spaces, but with enough towns so you can find a gas station, and won’t need to pee on the side of the road in case of emergency. There is a pretty small time cold front moving through the Upper Midwest, and it is more likely to touch off a few thunderstorms in Minnesota and northern Wisconsin tomorrow. There will be enough general instability in southern Wisconsin and Iowa that we will probably see quite a bit of puffy cumulus clouds during our day, but none that will give us any reason to turn on the wipers, We’ll turn south at Des Moines. and reach Lathrop, Missouri, northeast of Kansas City before the day’s end.
DAY TWO (Friday)
A menacing batch of low pressure will develop through the day in the Colorado plains on Friday. Ultimately, it won’t produce a lot of thunderstorm activity but the activity that is generated will almost be entirely supercellular, with large hail and tornadoes the primary concern. These low precipitation, high rotation type of super cells are a chasers dream, so don’t be surprised by traffic in western Kansas as we head for the Panhandles. Of course, that added traffic will also probably indicate very nasty weather near by. The dry line will set up east of Guymon, Oklahoma, and we will make it to Stratford, Texas, in the far northern Panhandle, safe from the threat of a tornado outbreak on Friday night.
DAY THREE (Saturday)
The thing about New Mexico and Arizona is that they are always (save for far eastern New Mexico) on the dry side of dry lines. Sun and heat are going to bear down on the lower lying terrain, while it will be a bit cooler in the higher elevations. Some light rain is possible up in Colorado, but by golly, we’re going to get to Phoenix hot, sunny and sweaty, just they way it’s supposed to be.
Phoenix, Arizona
Happy Mother’s Day to all the Moms up on Sunday night reading weather blogs!
At 551PM, PT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with overcast skies. The overcast was a high overcast, and not indicative of any significant weather in the area. There was a it of instability in the southwestern United States in conjunction with an upper level wave, but the shower activity has steered clear from Phoenix.
The tail of the jet providing the upper level instability for these showers and storms will pull west through Texas as the week begins. This will leave a weak upper level ridge in the desert Southwest, and Phoenix is in the clear to start the work week.
Tomorrow – Increasingly sunny, High 91, Low 68
Tuesday – Sunny, High 95, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 94,
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 98, Low 70
AW: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 92,
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; warm High 97, Low 71
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94 Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 92, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 96, Low 71
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 97, Low 69
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 95,
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 68
Looks like we are on the cool end. Hard to think warm thoughts when you are
Not stalling
OK, we’ve been sitting on this verification for a while. When you see how bad everyone did, you’ll think it was a stall tactic, but really, I’ve just been really busy. Denver is a tricky place to forecast for, and they pulled out all the stops during the last weekend of April. After a rain soaked Friday, Saturday dodged all the rain drops, and the clear morning skies meant the morning low was significantly colder than we bargained for. And then Sunday, it did rain a little bit. Strangely, that rain came with a significant warm up that outclassed meteorologist’s wildest dreams. All told, Victoria-Weather and Accuweather backed into a tie for the top forecast, but it will probably go down as the worst of the first half of he year, at least.
Actuals: Saturday (26th) – Hgh 67, Low 39
Sunday (27th) – Rain reported, not measured, High 78, Low 41
Grade: D-F
Athens, Georgia to Corpus Christi, Texas
The only part of the Gulf Coast I’ve ever visited is in South Florida. this two day trek will sweep along the whole doggone thing. It’s a 1071 mile journey which will be paced at 68.5mph, despite travel through Atlanta and Houston’s sprawling suburbia. There will be a little bit more to day one, as we expect to cover 548 miles, leaving the rest for Wednesday.
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
It’s not a sight we see too often from May to about October. There will be a solid area of high pressure camping in the region today and tomorrow. This is great because tomorrow, we are driving through the southeastern US! We’ll navigate Atlanta and Montgomery with no weather issues, making it to Robert, Louisiana on the northwest side of Lake Pontchartrain to finish off our day.
DAY TWO (Wednesday)
One of the busiest stretches of the Gulf Coast, weather-wise, is the patch between Houston and Lake Charles. Indeed again, we may see some storms starting to pop up in this area, particularly in the Beaumont area, but by the time we get through Houston, we should have nothing but sweltering highway ahead of us. A cold front is moving through north Texas, drawing that moisture in through Beaumont, but the relief will come much later to Corpus Christi.
Corpus Christi, Texas
Whenever we can talk about inclement weather in the Plains, that usually means a steady threat of showers somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Is that place Corpus Christi for the next couple of days?
At 1051PM, CT, Corpus Christi was reporting a temperature if 75 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was
There isn’t a lot of upper level dynamics at work in the southeastern US, but guidance is pinging on a surface low developing near Del Rio on Tuesday morning. This will tap into the return flow suppling showers further north, and begin to follow the same course. This will mean heavier showers and storms over the Corpus Christi region on Tuesday. It will be forced
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 73
Tuesday — Showers and storms, especially early, High 83, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High 83,
Tuesday – Thunderstorms likely, especially in the
AW: Tomorrow – A shower in the morning, then a few strong t-storms; storms can bring flooding and damaging winds High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy; a shower or thunderstorm around, breezy and humid High 84, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm.
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 75
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82,
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 74
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 75
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon. High 82,
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 83, Low 76
Here is the satellite, with interior Texas
