January was interminable, wasn’t it? And here we are, 10 days later, still talking about. It’s mostly good news, though, because in the fray of January, we were able to reward not one, not two, but THREE outlets with the forecaster of the month award. The three outlets to draw level in the first month of the year were Victoria-Weather, Weatherbug and the Weather Service.
Usually, when we talk about border battles in sports we are talking about two states that share a border playing each other. In this case, we are just talking about the very tight forecast fight in Brownsville as January turned to February. January ended with a splash of rain and unusually cool temperatures. February started a little brighter, especially for WeatherNation who had the best forecast on February 1st, missing only by one degree on the morning low, and pegging the 71 degree high. They earned the very rare solo victory after diverging from the NWS forecast. Actuals: Friday, Jan. 31st. .1 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53 Saturday, Feb 1st, High 71, Low 49
To the Delmarva we go this evening, to the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Salisbury is the second largest town on the peninsula, after Dover. This is the first time Dover has been the biggest in any categorization.
AT 854PM, ET, Salisbury was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 50 degrees. There was a smattering of clouds to the west, over Appalachia, that were seen at the leading edge of high pressure. There is an upper level ridge parked over the eastern US, and any short term development will be found in the south central US, at the base of a strong jet trough. There is little easterly momentum to the ridge, but there some. Cold air will coalesce behind the Appalachians even as low pressure develops in the lower Mississippi Valley. The cold air will drift southeastward, bringing with it the chance for a splash of showers on Wednesday afternoon, with a few clouds billowing in before that. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 46 Wednesday – chance of light rain, High 54, Low 44 (non-standard)
TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 62, Low 51 Wednesday – Rain early then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 42
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a touch of rain; the temperature near the record of 69 set in 1991 High 64, Low 50 Wednesday – Mild with occasional rain and drizzle High 57, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 48 Wednesday – Rain likely. Cloudy, High 53, Low 45
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 53 Wednesday – Rain likely, High 56, Low 42
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48 Wednesday – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 52, Low 48
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 63, Low 48 Wednesday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon High 56, Low 39
There we go, a messy forecast for the middle of the week. Right now, however, the sky is clear and the air is unusually warm.
The forecast in St. Joseph last week speculated upon the effect an inverted trough would have in the Missouri Valley. The system would later bring severe weather to the Florida Keys, but it would only bring a case of the blahs to St. Joseph. Victoria-Weather had the best forecast, though the boundary was unable to squeeze out a drop or a flake last Tuesday (there was fog and mist, though), in what was an altogether solid forecast. Actuals: Tuesday – High 32, Low 28 Wednesday – .01 inches of snow, High 34, Low 27
We’re off to the Sunshine State once again. This weekend, the Super Bowl is a little further south in Miami. There were some very strong thunderstorms there last night, but at least at the Orange Bowl, life looks good this weekend. What about further north in Ocala?
At 203PM, ET, Ocala was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cold front was moving through the Florida Peninsula, with temperatures in the 40s as close as Tallahassee. Ocala was not expected to receive any more rain today, though there were a few showers as nearby as Orlando. The sharp upper level trough that is driving this cold front will be off over the Gulf Stream by tomorrow morning, with a thermal ridge working its way back into Florida by tomorrow afternoon. Low pressure developing in the plains will draw even more warm air northward. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 41 Monday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 39
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 42 Monday – A few clouds from time to time. high 73, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 64, low 42 Monday – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 73, low 40
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 42 Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 41
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 64, Low 44 Monday – Sunny High 71, Low 41
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 41 Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 39
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 65, Low 43 Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 40
Not much going on for the next couple of days, however we do have a bit of rain off to the south this afternoon. Not much longer, though, for fans of Disney World.
Throughout most of the summer, the deep south of Texas is so hot and far removed from the jet stream, there is nothing interesting about the weather. How will it be as we visit in late January and February?
At 153PM, CT, Brownsville was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with overcast skies. The overcast conditions spread through the center of the country, from border to border, as a deep upper level trough settled into the country. The base of the trough will continue to shift eastward overnight, with cold air chasing the clouds out of town, but not before bringing the threat of some light rain to the city in the early morning hours. Some cyclonic development will occur over the northern Gulf, which will encourage more dry air from the north into the afternoon. Saturday morning in particular will be quite cold, thanks to the clearer and northerly winds. Tomorrow – Light rain early, High 64, Low 52 Saturday – Clearing and cooler, especially in the morning, High 70, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (early showers) High 67, low 56 Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 72, low 50
AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun with a shower in spots early in the morning, then becoming breezy High 67, Low 58 Saturday – Sunshine and patchy clouds High 70, Low 49
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle with a slight chance of rain before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 65, Low 51 Saturday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 48
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with with a 20% chance of rain showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 65, low 55 Saturday – Sunny, High 70, Low 51
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 67, Low 55 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 50
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain tonight and tomorrow morning. high 66, Low 56 Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 52
Here is a look from the forecast from KRGV. They are an Accuweather outlet, so if their forecast looks a little familiar, that’s why.
Weirton lies along the banks of the Ohio River, while St. Joseph is on the Missouri. Maybe they aren’t the most famous towns on their respective rivers, but they do offer a chance to get up close to them. It will require a day and a half drive over the course of 832 miles. Our first day will conclude 518.7 miles in, slowed by travelling off-interstate to a pace of 64.8mph.
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Weirton, West Virginia
High pressure has nosed into the western Great Lakes, and will suppress much rising air, which usually just means that there won’t be any showers or storms in the area. This is true, but for our purposes, it means an inversion across much of the region as well. This suggests there will be A) low clouds and B) morning fog, thanks to the high moisture content in the region, thanks to snow melt and a lack of motivation to clear out. As the day goes on, expect improved visibility and maybe even a bit of sun in the afternoon over Illinois and Indiana. We’ll stop in Buffalo, Illinois, between Springfield and Decatur, for our sole break of the trip.
DAY TWO (Wednesday) A weak feature sliding along the Texas Gulf Coast will extend an inverted trough to the Show Me State, which means a few wet flakes across the region. Given the temperatures, it seems likely that this will lead to some especially icy roads in northern Missouri, even if there isn’t a lot of accumulation. I’m concerned about the threat for some freezing mist in the morning. Drive safely!
We’re going to check in a little north of Kansas City for our first forecast of the week. What can we expect from the weather in the middle of the country to start the week?
At 1153AM, CT, St. Joseph was reporting light fog and a temperature of 36 degrees. They weren’t indicating cloud cover, but a quick look at satellite imagery would confirm that they are socked in with overcast. Warm temperatures were melting snow and leading to saturated air masses from Kansas City to the Canadian border, and with warm temperatures expected to continue, no end is in sight. A weak upper level trough is parenting an even weaker surface feature sliding out of the Rockies and into the Texas/Oklahoma region through the night tonight and into tomorrow. An inverted trough associated with this system will sneak into the St. Joseph area in the evening and linger through the morning. Some light precipitation, likely just mist mixed with some flakes, will persist overnight. Temperatures hovering close to freezing will make for treacherous roads in the region on Wednesday morning. Tomorrow – Light precip, including snow and freezing drizzle, starting in the evening, High 32, low 27 Wednesday – Mixed precipitation including snow and light icing through mid morning, then clearing, High 34, Low 26
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy (late snow) High 29, Low 26 Wednesday – Cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible. high 30, Low 24
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 32, Low 27 Wednesday – A passing morning flurry; otherwise, partly sunny High 32, Low 24
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, high 31, low 29 Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 31, Low 27
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow, High 33, low 28 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, High 33, Low 24
FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy tomorrow morning. High 32, low 27 Wednesday – Overcast throughout the day. High 34, Low 25
Ah, the dangerous mixed bag. Model guidance is pretty low key on precipitation out of this event, and you could go a lot of different ways. I feel like, with temperatures as warm as they are, we are going to expect a lot more low visibility misty fog, and not as many flakes. I don’t know where TWC is coming from with their temperatures. Too cloudy for it to be so cold, in my opinion. In any event, here is the satellite, with a dome of cloud cover over the area.
Here’s something you might not know about Arizona: It’s a very dry place. Dew points in Prescott hit the low 20s early last week, which is fine in the summer, but it means temperatures can really cool off in the evenings. A little bit of moisture moved in on Monday, and while it was warmer over night, there were also clouds and slightly cooler temperatures in the afternoon. Weatherbug had the top forecast in Prescott, but it was a fairly level playing field. Actuals: Sunday (19th) High 60, Low 25 Monday (20th) High 55, Low 34
