Late October was alive with nasty weather, and the Pacific Northwest was not spared. Despite it’s position on the drier side of the Cascades, even Wenatchee saw a rain/snow mix on Friday the 23rd. This was well anticipated, but the clouds that suppressed temperatures on Friday were not as well foreseen and sunk a few forecasts. The outlets that had cooler highs also correctly called for snow, and snagged the best scores. At the top of the heap was WeatherNation. Actuals: Thursday 10/22, High 50, Low 36 Friday – .06 inches of precipitation for rain/snow, High 36, Low 31
Let’s do an Election Day forecast, shall we? In the parlance of politics, we’ll head from one blue state to another, but we’ll travel through some red states along the way. It will take 4 days, or about as long as it will take to count all the votes, to cover 2107 miles. The fourth day will be slightly shorter than the first three, with those first three days concluding after 544 miles of driving at around 68mph. Most cars can stream audio now, so maybe avoid the AM radio and just enjoy the open road for this trip.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Champaign, Illinois
As the jet has drifted back a bit to the north, things have started to warm up for the middle of the country, and our drive on Wednesday can likely be done with the windows down if the car gets too stuffy. There won’t be much weather to remark on, save for breezes that could gust to 15mph at times. Noting treacherous. We’ll arrive in suburban Tulsa for the night.
DAY TWO (Thursday) Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, though with a diminished chance of a prevailing wind. We will drive through central and western Oklahoma, still cleaning up after a calamitous ice storm, and pass through the Texas Panhandle into New Mexico under sunny skies. We will stop at the San Ignacio exit west of Santa Rosa and completely be out of touch with the rest of civilization.
DAY THREE (Friday) As we approach California, we will do it through the desertified parts of the Southwest. New Mexico and Arizona will remain clear and dry, but a system moving into the West Coast will stir some winds inland. Watch for tumbleweeds in this part of the world. The drive will end at Silver Spring Road between Kingman and Seligman in Arizona.
DAY FOUR (Saturday) As is often the cast, the feature moving into the West Coast will lose a lot of structure as it gets into the mountains, but that doesn’t mean it will be completely obliterated. In fact, well defined fronts will still exist, including a cold front we will drive though in southern California. That’s not to say it will be particularly rainy, if at all, as the frontal passage will be between Barstow and Mojave, right in the heart of the desert. When we descend into the central Valley at Bakersfield, we’ll probably get into some soupy overcast with drizzle. Expect that right on down to Hanford. Strange, right? The only part of the trip with rain will be the part in California.
Hanford, California
By Armona at en.wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=17978087
All right, everyone, let’s get back to work for the week, and start our November with an Election Day forecast in the Central Valley of California.
At 853PM, PT, Hanford was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies, calm winds and haze. The haze is expected to linger overnight. There is an air quality alert of the Central Valley, in part because of the inversion and stillness leading to the aforementioned haze. Broadly, the western US is under a ridge, but a weak area of upper level troughing exists, centered over California. This is helping to keep temperatures a bit cooler than they would be otherwise, but there isn’t really an impetus for precipitation. The undercutting trough will shift to the east over the next couple of days, allowing a little bit of heat to return and the haze to become less likely by Tuesday. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, haze in the morning High 81, Low 48 Tuesday – Clearer still, a bit warmer, High 84, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 46 Tuesday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds, High 83, Low 45
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 84, Low 47 Tuesday – Sunshine and very warm; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 83, Low 46
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 80, Low 49 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 49 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 47 Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 48
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 49 Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 47
I’m the only one calling for a warm up, but the margins are so slim, I don’t think anyone will notice. Here is the satellite, in which you can see a few wispy clouds.
There is a continuing threat of wildfires in California, particularly in the northern part of the state, where despite a recent cool down for much of the country, hot weather, wind and dry conditions continued for California. Over the weekend of the 17th and 18th, temperatures in Santa Rosa spiked all the way to the 90s, even the upper 90s on that Saturday. Forecasters were anticipating some relief by the end of the forecast period, so everyone was a little low on their forecasts. The warmest outlet was Victoria-Weather, and we claimed victory on a miserable forecast for everyone — particularly residents of Santa Rosa. Actuals: October 17th, High 97, Low 48 October 18th, High 91, Low 48
All right, so this is definitely going to be a light stretch for forecasts, but given the rapid transition to winter time, there should be plenty to talk about!
Road Trip from Buffalo New York to Florence, South Carolina
It’s not often we spent a road trip on the west coast, but that’s the plan for this journey. It will take a day and a half to get from the North Bay to western Washington. We’ll cover 798 miles at a pace of only 57.3mph, thanks to most of our drive being spent off of the main freeways, as well as through some rebuilding areas after this year’s wildfires. Enjoy the lackadaisical pace.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
Santa Rosa, California
By JLankford – wikitravel, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=37654846
While you may not recognize it in northern California, where fires are still burning, particularly northeast of Santa Rosa, and further north in the Mendocino National Forest, but it is a time of rainy change in the Pacific Northwest. Northern California will be all too dry and haze tinged as we travel north along I-5, but north of Klamath Falls on US-97, we will start to see a change. First, some clouds will stream overhead, and then around Crater Lake, the northeast chilly wind will pick up. Models suggest a dry drive tomorrow afternoon, but make no mistake. We’re crossing a cold front in Oregon tomorrow. We will stop in the resort community of Sunriver, south of Bend, at the end of the day.
DAY TWO (Friday) The next round of wet weather to barrel into Washington is coming in the morning on Friday. It will particularly impact Puget Sound and eastern Washington near Spokane, mostly sparing the Yakima Valley. Don’t count on that lasting all day, though. Just because there won’t be as much rain or snow doesn’t mean there won’t be any. Precipitation will mostly be rain from Yakima northward, but some snow may mix in around Ellensburg, and again as we approach Wenatchee.
Western Washington is our destination for today’s forecast. Not Puget Sound though, but rather an entirely different climate on the east side of the Cascades.
At 1155AM, PT, Wenatchee was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 49 degrees. The jet was nearly directly overhead, and was bringing some striated high clouds to the Pacific Northwest in general, but specifically some fog and light precipitation at the higher terrain of the Cascades. This will dissipate, and aside from the continued high clouds, Wenatchee will remain in the clear through Thursday. The next feature out of the Gulf of Alaska will arrive early on Friday and bring a swift bout of showers to the region, some of which will likely snake its way to Wenatchee, even as most gets wasted in the Cascades. Expect a gloomy end to the week, thanks to the persistent clouds on Friday. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 31 Friday – Cloudy, chances of rain through the day, High 41, Low 32
TWC: Tomorrow – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 53, Low 33 Friday – Periods of rain and snow. High 40, Low 35
AW Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and chilly High 49, Low 31 Friday – Colder with snow beginning in the late morning, accumulating an inch or two, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny High 53, Low 33 Friday – A chance of snow before 8am, then rain and snow. Snow level 800 feet High 35, Low 33
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Widespread frost in the morning. High 51, Low 35 Friday – Snow. Moderate snow acumulations possible. Colder. High 38, Low 35
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with widespread frost, High 53, Low 32 Friday -Mostly cloudy with light wintry mix, High 36, Low 31
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 54, Low 31 Friday – Rain throughout the day. High 43, Low 33
It looks like a pretty grim day on the eastern slope of the Cascades on Friday. Here is the satellite with clouds streaming across the PAcific Northwest associated with the jet.
The forecast for Kingston was spot on, at least for one outlet. Accuweather only missed by degree overall, going a little too cool on Thursday morning. This is what happens on a clear day on the east coast, I guess. Accuweather was clearly the best, but it was a good forecast for everyone. Actuals: Wednesday – High 69, Low 38 Thursday – High 74, Low 43
At 753PM, PT, Santa Rosa was still reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with clear skies. The west coast will continue to remain clear for the next couple of days, and unlike the eastern two thirds of the country, it will be hot. Santa Rosa is in a red flag warning, and a heat advisory. High pressure centered in the eastern Pacific is bolstered onshore by a thermal ridge. Little change can be anticipated in Santa Rosa, and the heat and fire danger will be in place, particularly with a broad static trough east of the Rockies. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 53 Sunday – Sunny, High 87, Low 49
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 92, Low 56 Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 85, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – Hot with plenty of sunshine; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 93, Low 56 Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 85, Low 50
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 61 Sunday – Sunny, High 86, Low 56
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 56 Sunday – Sunny, High 84, Low 54
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 60 Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 55
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 92, Low 58 Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 85, Low 51
It’s like we were foreasting for different Santa Rosa’s, judging by some of those highs. I am not sold on as steep a drop in temperatures, clearly, as the others. Now, please enjoy the forecast from another viewpoint, KTVU in northern California.
The Hudson River is home to so many important cities, many of which are overshadowed by Albany and New York. There are plenty of good ones though, not the least of which is Kingston, which is just north of another good one, Poughkeepsie.
At 453PM, ET, it was 56 degrees and overcast near Kingston. The remnants of weak circulation associated with Delta are in Southern New England and are contributing to the cloudy skies in the area, though rain seems to have departed from Kingston for the rest of the day. Drier conditions are on the way tomorrow as a strong jet trough organizes a well developed extratropical cyclone in the Great Lakes. The low will shift to the north as the jet trough becomes more well developed. The jet trough development is indicative of cold air surging into the center of the country, and a cold front developing west of the Appalachians. Ahead of the developing cold front, warm southerly flow will make things unseasonably warm for at least a day in Kingston. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 41 Thursday – Partly cloudy, breeze, High 75, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky, High 68, Low 40 Thursday – Abundant sunshine, High 74, Low 42
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 69, Low 38 Thursday – Sunny to partly cloudy and warm; breezy in the afternoon High 74, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 68 , Low 41 Thursday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Sunny. High 67, Low 41 Thursday – Sunny, High 72, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 41 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 41
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 40 Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 44
I’m on the warm end on Saturday. I believe in the power of sunny skies and south winds. Here is the radar, showing rain shifting out of town.
