Deadly tornadoes reveal a fundamental truth

Tornadoes last weekend, particularly those in St. Louis and London, Kentucky resulted in the largest weather loss of life thus far in the severe weather season. Hearts break for all those affected by these storms, and they are stirring a greater conversation around the country about forecasting and disaster relief, but the storms also point back to something we always need to be reminded of.

The strength and number of tornadoes is less impactful than where the tornadoes strike. While these have been the most deadly days of the 2025 tornado season, they haven’t been the days with the most twisters. Despite the number of deaths and the extensive damage, these storms weren’t the strongest storms. In St. Louis, the tornado was an EF-3, while the one in Kentucky was an EF-4. Strong, certainly, but there have been stronger.

And the mode through which these storms occurred was less of he isolated supercells that we se in he Plains, like we have seen in Moore or Greensburg, but rather embedded within broader storm systems. Supercells, no less, but hardly the classic radar signature. Most importantly, had this storm not hit St. Louis and London, I’m not even sure these storms would necessarily be a “tornado outbreak”.

But of crucial importance was the fact that these storms DID hit St. Louis and London, and will thus be remembered for the destructive incidents that they are. A tornado is a spectacle that people go out of their way to observe until the time it moves through a densely populated city, or a mountain community with an out of service weather radio network. Storms can be strong or numerous, but they don’t really become nightmares until they find humanity.

When May was May

For those that may not recall, this past week in the mid-Atlantic has been a fairly miserable one by May standards. Temperatures were cool, it has been rainy and there was the looming specter of severe weather. Before all that got underway, there was a forecast for Vineland, New Jersey. It was a warm end to the weekend, with the beginning of the week preparing south Jersey for the looming gloom. The top spot belonged to Victoria-Weather, despite being the only outlet to have rain in the forecast, only to have it not materialize
Actuals: May 11th, High 81, Low 48
May 12th, High 78, Low 51

Grade: A-C

Coming Soon…

It’s been rough to end the week in the middle of the country, and it doesn’t seem as though it will be quieting down soon. Let’s see where the forecast train is stopping in the next few weeks.

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Dalton, Georgia

Pueblo, Colorado
Road Trip from Jonesboro, Arkansas to Pueblo

Road Trip from Pueblo to Santa Cruz, California

Lincoln, Nebraska

Spring pause

It’s mid-May, and students are getting ready to finish their school year and start enjoying summer break. It’s shorts and t-shirt time for most of us, and it’s only going to get hotter. For people like me who prefer summer over everything else, this is fantastic news. That means that the out look for late May isn’t fantastic for people such as myself.

Unlike the previous Omega block, we aren’t expecting a static pattern in the upper atmosphere, but rather a repetitive one. There won’t be a standing trough, but one that keeps reappearing over and over again. Regardless of the cause, the result is the same: reinforcement of Canadian air and temperatures that aren’t quite where we expect them to be.

More often than not through the end of the month, there projects to be an upper level trough and more unsettled weather than normal from the Mississippi to the Mid-Atlantic and north through New England. The cooler temperatures beneath the trough, and more pertinently, under clouds and swirling areas of low pressure will mean a late May that isn’t as sweltering as we have grown accustomed to.

We had one other unfortunate reminder today. The was the cooler lobe is sinking into the eastern part of the country, there will be a ring of fire, so to speak, on the periphery, with a severe season lasting later than it normally does into late May. It doesn’t look particularly wet, but I expect it to be fairly stormy.

A cooker on the Rio Grande

I understand that it is only May, and a relatively tame one at that, but 90 degrees is still hot. That’s what was seen in Laredo last weekend, the verifying time of our recent forecast for the border town. Laredo was west of a broad, ambiguous area of low pressure, which meant that they were receiving a north wind, and were still over 90 by Sunday. This went about as well as planned for the meteorologists with a vested interest, and The Weather Channel and WeatherNation tied atop the leaderboard (because they had the same forecast).
Actuals: Saturday High 87, Low 67
Sunday, High 90, Low 64

Grade: A-B

The worst of both worlds

It is in the 90s across most of North Dakota today. Within the next hour or so, I would venture to guess that every reporting site in the state will be at or greater than 90.

That’s hot anywhere, and particularly in mid-May in North Dakota. The thing about North Dakota is that it is higher latitude than almost all of the rest of the contiguous United States, and it falls within the northern High Plains. This leaves the place vulnerable to temperature swings like the one that swung temperatures into the 90s for the early part of the week, but also 50 degrees cooler (for highs!) by the end of the week.

A meandering and fairly useless blob of low pressure in the southeast is going to rob a developing system in the Upper Midwest of a lot of it’s convective oomph, and that’s probably for the best, given the pool of cold air it is going to pull in behind it on Thursday and into Friday.

These are the forecast low temperatures for Friday night into Saturday morning. Make no mistake, after starting the week in the mid 90s, it is completely reasonable to believe there might be some snow in North Dakota and northern Minnesota over the weekend. Fortunately, there won’t be too much in the way of severe weather as this low gets going and the cold winds start blowing.

That’s actually a 60+ degree drop in a few days for parts of North Dakota this week. Can’t they enjoy spring even just for a little bit?

Vineland, New Jersey

After our forecast in south Texas, we are going to south Jersey, which are approximately the same place, culturally and climatologically, I think.

At 1053PM, ET, Vineland was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with clear skies. Upper level flow was split, with an elongated, main flow running just north of the Canadian border, and an isolated, cut off trough base along the Gulf Coast. Both were generating low pressure, with high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic in between.
The southern trough, being isolated, will have a tougher time sustaining itself, though that is the feature moving towards New Jersey. High pressure will hold it at bay until late in the day on Monday, but the blob of increasingly disorganized moisture in the southeast will introduce a little bit of light shower activity after sunset.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 48
Monday – Increasing clouds, a chance of showers late, High 76, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83. Low 52
Monday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 80, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow = Warmer with sunshine and a few clouds; dry for outdoor plans on Mother’s Day High 81, Low 50
Monday – Pleasant; brilliant sunshine in the morning followed by sun and areas of high clouds High 74, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  , High 80, low 51
Monday – Partly sunny,High 77, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 79, Low 51
Monday – Partly sunny. High 74, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 52
Monday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 77, Low 53

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 52
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 52

Two camps, clearly, on the timing of clouds and precipitation, and it is really going to affect the Monday high temperatures. Below is a look at the satellite, with clouds southwest of Vineland that will lazily move in. Happy Mother’s Day!

Laredo, Texas

Way down south in Texas for our forecast, right along the Mexican border.

At 1056PM, Central Time, Laredo was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A broad cut off trough over the northern Gulf Coast is rotating flow throughout the area. The offshore, west Texas breezes were keeping places like Laredo fairly tolerable and pretty dry.
The low and the trough fostering it are going to be slow to move out, but the good news for Laredo is that they are in a dry regime, on the back end of the low with dry northerly flow persisting in south Texas.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 86, Low 64
Sunday – A bit more sun, High 90, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 88, Low 65
Sunday – Mainly sunny. Hight 94, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 86, Low 64
Sunday – Plenty of sun High 90, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 66
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. High 85, Low 70
Sunday – Sunny. high 89, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 66
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 84, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 89, Low 63

The rain that Clime has might be one of those hallucinating AI things you hear about. It’s pretty clear on satellite right now.

April Forecaster of the Month

The month of April was dynamic in a way that May hasn’t been. I’ve often said that when the weather gets wilder, The Weather Channel gets better. This thing that I say so often and everyone has heard me say bore fruit again, as they had tie for the top forecast in the month of April. I guess I need to have a similar expression for WeatherNation, who joined TWC at the top of the charts.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 4
Accuweather 3.5
National Weather Service 3.5
Weatherbug 3
Clime 2.5
Victoria-Weather 1.5
WeatherNation 1

Consistency is key

Our forecast in Albany proved to be even less exciting than expected. I though there might have been a smattering of light rain or some fog thanks to the pool of moisture still lingering in the southeast, but no, that would have been a little bit too much adventure. Instead, we saw no rain, highs what were the same on both the 25th and 26th and low temperatures that merely wobbled a couple of degrees. In fact, there was so much sameness, WeatherNation and Clime had the same score, and tied for the win.
Actuals: April 25th, High 87, Low 63
April 26th, High 87, Low 65

Grade: A-C