from Victoria-Weather
We are going to spend the middle of July in the south. With the heat out west and the humidity in the southeast, it is going to get stuffy.
Road Trip from Prescott, Arizona to Bakersfield, California
Laredo, Texas
Fayetteville, Arkansas
Road Trip from Laredo to Fayetteville
Hello, and happy weekend! In the dead heat of summer, a road trip across the southern US sounds like the last thing one might want to do, but frankly, most cars have functioning air conditioning, so why not? It will take us a surprisingly swift 4 days at a pace of 70+mph, which is pretty close to our top speed, maybe ever. This will allow us to cover the 2176 miles between the towns in 561 mile chunks (a little less, somehow, on Day 4). Let’s blow the doors off this thing, huh?
DAY ONE (Saturday)
Thunderstorms are raging in the Plains tonight, from Colorado and Nebraska southeast through Iowa and Illinois. They will continue to shift to the east southeast through the day. Bad news for the middle of the country but good news for drivers on the Gulf Coast. The showers and storms will be focused along this axis of instability, and will steer clear of the immediate Gulf Coast, leaving only a little bit of spotty activity between Mobile and New Orleans, but not much else. Our day will end on the east side of Lake Charles, still reeling from the last hurricane season. Thankfully, we’ve been quiet so far.
DAY TWO (Sunday)
That feature in the middle of the country is going to slow down and wind up over the weekend. A cold front will develop over north Texas and become evident by the evening in the Dallas area, but we aren’t driving through north Texas or Dallas. It will stay Texas hot and Texas dry in the southern part of the state. We’ll get just west of Ozona before we conclude our drive for Sunday.
DAY THREE (Monday)
The drive will continue through mostly pleasant conditions on Monday, but the seasonal monsoon is underway out west. The slightly elevated ground along the New Mexico – Arizona border could provide some fertile ground for scattered thunderstorms, and we might see a splash west of Lordstown, New Mexico. They will mostly be wrapped up, but still possible as we slide into Wilcox, east of Tucson.
DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
A similar pattern is expected for Tuesday. Importantly, this means that showers and storms will wait until late in the day to develop, and will generally be confined to the same spots on Tuesday as they were on Monday. That is to say, they will be most likely in the New Mexico/Arizona border region, which we will long be out of by the time thunderstorms develop. It’s just the hot, dry desert for us through Arizona and inland California, with the pearl at the end of the drive, beautiful San Diego.
We have already reached the 5th named storm of the tropical season, but Elsa, the former hurricane presently drifting through the southeastern United States is the first hurricane of the season, as well as the strongest storm to make landfall this year.
Elsa’s strongest appearance on land, at least in terms of wind, was last night in Key West, when the airport reported a winds approaching 50mph. The primary threat from Elsa, as with most tropical storms, was, and continues to be, heavy rain.
Flash flood advisories were out for northern Florida and south Georgia, and have now shifted to South Carolina. There were also a few isolated tornado reports, and as Elsa spins northeast, there is a tornado watch for South Carolina and surrounding areas.
Elsa has been a mild storm, so read this as a precautionary tale. It still brought flooding, strong winds and tornadoes inland. Had she taken a different course, there may he been noteworthy storm surge as well, but her path, along the course and inland in a low density part of Florida, was beneficial for local residents. All tropical storms are dangerous, including Elsa, who isn’t quite done yet. Check out the forecast for the next few days.
There is still significant weather coming for the East Coast from Elsa. There are no other areas of concern in the Atlantic, but that will change, and we will then need to continue our maritime vigilance.
It’s been a very hot summer so far out west and in the northern US. The Great Lakes haven’t been spared, but Saginaw did catch a break as June turned to July. There was a little bit of rain on the last day of June, with temperatures in the 80s, and it got even cooler on July 1st, without any rain. That’s outdoors weather! Forecast.io claimed a victory, going dry on the 1st, and getting the best temperature numbers overall.
Actuals: Wednesday, June 30th, Rain reported, not measured, High 83, Low 72
Thursday, July 1st, High 73, Low 58
Grade: B-C
We are now halfway through the year, and have now clearly defined a best forecaster so far this year. After a three way tie through May, Weatherbug had the best month in June, and Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel did not, giving them the lead as we head into the dog days of summer. Hurricane season and record breaking heat are around the corner, and meteorologists are surely around the corner, so continued forecast vigilance will be necessary.
| Outlet | Forecast Wins |
| Weatherbug | 7.66 |
| Victoria-Weather | 5.5 |
| The Weather Channel | 4.83 |
| Accuweather | 4.33 |
| National Weather Service | 2.16 |
| Forecast.io | 1.83 |
| WeatherNation | 0.66 |
Something as a swan song to the persistent trough that had been bringing showers and thunderstorms to the middle of the country, Fayetteville reported showers and thunderstorms on both Sunday and Monday. The wet weather was not nearly as significant as it had been, and it didn’t even show up on Tuesday. The benefit was that temperatures were comfortable in the 80s, and that the forecast was skillful. The Weather Channel, Weather Service and Weathernation all tied at the top spot.
Actuals: Sunday – .15 inches of rain, High 84, Low 70
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 85, Low 69
Grade: A-B
So many of our trips are west to east, but not enough follow the longitude more closely. Our drive will last for two days and cover 1025 well interstated miles. The pace will be a swift 67.4mph thanks to the busy roads we travel. Day one will be the longer of the two days, requiring us to cover 539.5 miles. Not much longer, but it still counts as longer.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Summer is all different things to all different people, and this year, with the wide variety of weather hitting different neighborhoods, there is a little something for everyone. The southeast generally sees popcorn showers and thunderstorms every afternoon during the dog days. There will indeed be a few isolated showers and storms over Georgia, populating earlier than normal. There will be a hazy pause in eastern Tennessee, but a stalled surface trough, running perpendicular to our route, will be the source of showers and storms as we trek into Kentucky. The threat for rain will be highest for the last hour or so, as we pull into Pittsburg, near London, Kentucky.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
That surface trough is orphaned in the Ohio Valley, and will continue to be a source of precipitation on Thursday. As time progresses though, a perturbation will develop in this trough, and rain fall will organize and become heavier by the time we leave. The best threat for heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms for the entire trip will be from the beginning of our day on Thursday through about Sidney, Ohio. Dry air is likely in northwest Ohio, with a stray shower repopulating around Saginaw Bay, just at the very tail end of this soggy drive.
The greater Saginaw area is one of the more surprisingly well populated regions out there, in my opinion. Let’s get all those Michiganders a forecast.
At 953AM, ET, Saginaw was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 79 degrees, Clouds were looming just to the northeast, with nearby Midland reporting overcast conditions at the leading edge of a slow moving boundary, which has produced training, flash flooding rains from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. The nearest batch of rain to Saginaw was lingering to the northwest around Houghton Lake. The upper level trough that has led to the persistent rain in the region is finally showing some mobility, as it is strengthening in flow but receding in it’s amplitude. As a result, showers and thunderstorms across Michigan today look to be a little more robust, and a stray severe storm can’t be ruled out.
For all the mechanisms of the upper level trough, it still doesn’t look to be terribly progressive, and will instead pulse from Ontario into the US. Today looks to be the stormiest day of showers and storms, but they will likely recur on Wednesday and Thursday, however without the same vigor. Thursday in particularly looks like precipitation may be absent the thunder, and that much of the day will be sunny.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms, High 82, Low 68
Thursday – Isolated showers, otherwise cooler with sun, High 76, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 83, Low 68
Thursday – Partly cloudy early followed by mostly cloudy skies and a few showers later in the day. High 74, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and humid; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 82, Low 68
Thursday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in the area; cooler High 72, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 69
Thursday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 81, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 74, Low 65
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 82, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 75, Low 63
FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain overnight. High 82, Low 69
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 61
It’s striking to see how cool Saginaw will be, particularly in the wake of our post yesterday about the Pacific Northwest. Below is the radar, with rain over northern Michigan.
The pattern across the country has once again stalled, and it is going to have dangerous effects in the Pacific Northwest. A severely tilted trough is holding up traffic across the country. A weakening system in the middle of the country is being propped up by a severely tilted trough, which in turn is blocking a ridge wrapping in from the west.
The strength of the ridge, and the continued entrenchment of the ridge are pushing temperatures to record totals. Not just for the day, or the month, but all time. Check out some of the totals from the Portland weather service office so far.
The trough is continuing to weaken in the middle of the country, which should allow the ridge out west to break down and start propagating to the east. Temperatures in Portland, which are, at the moment, sitting at 111, will start dropping after Monday, which will again hit well into the triple digits.
The summer, in particular the next few weeks, look like they will be above normal, however fortunately, the record breaking heat looks to be near it’s end. Without this particular wave to focus on, the attention will be turned to the persistent drought still smothering the west coast, and is being worsened in parts of the Pacific Northwest, no thanks to the inferno.
There are certainly a few different Columbia to Fayetteville options out there, and this was the longest trip possible of any of those combinations. This particular iteration will result in a day and a half drive, covering 921 miles. The pace between these SEC college campuses will be a somewhat tame 61.9mph covering 495 mile on our first day of travel. Let’s just get going, then.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
It’s certainly a nuisance for residence from the central Plains to the Great Lakes to have to endure several days of rain and thunderstorms, but as we drive from Columbia through northern Georgia, we will reap the benefits. The moisture being directed further to the north and west will allow the southeast to dry out a bit. A stream of moisture keeps showing up on the various model runs in the late evening over eastern Alabama, so don’t be surprised to see a little rain from the Georgia line to Birmingham. Mostly cloudy, warm and muggy conditions will continue west to Tupelo, Mississippi where we will round out the day.
DAY TWO (Monday)
The five plus hours through northern Mississippi, and across the state of Arkansas will be increasingly cloudy, and the higher terrain in northern Arkansas is likely to see spots of misty fog. Rain should stay clear of our route, but for the very end, when an isolated thunderstorm will certainly be possible along the hilly I-49 stretch, reaching into Fayetteville.
