from Victoria-Weather
A slow week for scheduled forecasts is on its way, but frankly, as we get later into April and closer to May, there will be plenty of other weather topics to discuss.
Baltimore, Maryland
Road Trip from Baltimore to Racine, Wisconsin
Omaha, Nebraska
San Francisco is one of the most difficult places to forecast for in California, bracketed alternately by sea and mountains, and set on an undulating peninsula itself. It’s also wonderfully exotic, and among the most interesting places in the world, in my opinion. This could be fun, is what I am saying.
At 156PM, PT, San Francisco was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees under clear skies. A light breeze off the Bay was helping to ensure things remained comfortable, but also was going to be a factor in visibility issues overnight. A ridge was set up across the western US, but had a short enough wavelength that there was no concern yet that this would turn into a long term, problematic feature.
Despite the high pressure through the US, and well agreed upon trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, there is a wide gap in model projections for the San Francisco area. As the low moves into the Northwest, winds will begin southerly tomorrow, and return westerly on Saturday. The southerly winds will bring significantly warmer conditions tomorrow, and the Pacific breezes will cool it right back down for the weekend, all without strong winds or much by way of cloud cover. Guidance is indecisive over how much temperatures will fluctuate, but with wind generally being mild, I’m opting to the more conservative route.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 82, Low 53
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 53
TWC: Mostly sunny skies. High 80, Low 49
Saturday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 65, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 83, Low 53
Saturday – Sun and areas of high clouds and cooler High 69, Low 51
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny, High 67, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 54
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 57
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 64, Low 53
As o e might imagine, the forecasts are all over the map, thanks to the model indecision. One thing that is not all over map, is clouds.
It’s time for everyone to head for home, all of you spring breakers and snow birds. Our early April drive will take us from beautiful Tucson up to the eastern shores of Lake Michigan, where I promise lake effect season is almost done. It is a 3 1/2 day trek, covering 1904 miles of the heartland. The three full days will involve 544 miles of travel at 68mph. Nice round numbers. Let’s hope the whole day trip is as accommodating.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
A little clipper of a system is organizing in the Montana foothills right now, and it will move towards the Upper Midwest through the day on Sunday. Something to keep an eye on for later in the day and later in the week. It will likely induce some cross wind from the south, especially later in the day as a cold front organizes through central Colorado. Fortunately, we will be enchanted by New Mexico without any other weather concerns on Sunday. We will make it to the ghost town of Cuervo, just past our entrance to I-40 east of Santa Rosa, New Mexico.
DAY TWO (Monday)
As the tail of the cold front to our north gets mixed up with hotter, more humid air in Texas and Oklahoma, it will start to churn up a bit more activity. We will have a dry time through the Texas Panhandle, but nearly the entire stretch of our drive in Oklahoma will be under the threat of showers and storms. Fortunately, we will be on the cold side of the feature by the time activity really gets going, but it will still be wet, with greater coverage northeast from Oklahoma City. We will get to Claremore, just past Tulsa, before we call it a night.
DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Tuesday’s drive will be a master class in timing. Precipitation will blossom in the southern Mississippi Valley, shifting towards the southern Atlantic states. We will probably catch a bit of the back end of the system as we pass through Illinois, but by and large, we will avoid any significant weather on Tuesday. We dodged that system! Meanwhile, yet another feature is emerging in the northern Plains, bigger and stronger than the last one. This is going to start sliding southeast, robbed of some moisture by the preceding storm, but gnarly enough in its own way. This next storm will arrive in Odell, Illinois, a couple of hours after we do. Bullets dodged.
DAY FOUR (Wednesday)
After a pretty fortuitous drive on Tuesday, things are going to be a little bit different on Wednesday. The next system is going to have a well put together cold front, running essentially along a line from Muskegon to Odell, We will be in windy rain through just about the entirety of the drive, including some spots of sleet as cold air tries to press in. Pretty gross. Don’t let it spoil your opinion of Muskegon, though.
One might think the title is referencing the lack of significant stormy weather in the Jacksonville area, even as the southern US was undergoing another severe weather outbreak, but it is not. Instead, the title references the lack of range in the temperatures, even with an airmass shift coming the way of Jacksonville. The forecasters with the quieter (and warmer overnight) temperatures were the ones that excelled on this day. The Top forecast went to Weatherbug, their first win of the year, after a strong 2021.
Actuals: Tuesday: High 80, Low 60
Wednesday: High 82, Low 66
Grade: B-C
I-95 is a busy stretch of road in the Mid-Atlantic, but we will spend a lot of time on this famous freeway south of Washington, where it successfully avoids a lot of the busiest spots. It will take two days to get from Jacksonville to Syracuse, and will cover 1071 miles. The pace of the drive will be 67.2mph, and we will make it about half way by the time the first day ends. One day mostly on I-95, one day mostly not.
DAY ONE (Friday)
It’s going to be a rough day in Jacksonville, and indeed along the East Coast today as the system that has wrought havoc on the lower Mississippi Valley and surrounding environs continues to march towards the Atlantic. Areas west of Jacksonville are presently under a tornado watch, and a slight risk of severe weather extends all the way north through Virginia. Essentially, our route for day one. But we are leaving tomorrow, and the boundary will already have passed by, leaving a post-storm tranquility to the area. Dry, calm, potentially well trafficked conditions will proceed as we head through Georgia and the Carolinas to Emporia, Virginia, tucked away west of Norfolk.
DAY TWO (Saturday)
It will be chilly in Emporia when we arrive Friday night, but it is far enough south that we will duck any of the late storm flurries that will be persistent in Pennsylvania and New York on Friday. A little bubble of high pressure will emerge over the mid-Atlantic to start the weekend, but clouds associated with this feature have been stubborn. Don’t be entirely surprised if it stays cloudy and cool, especially north of Washington, and then through the remainder of the route to Syracuse.
A lot of places in Florida seem like straightforward forecasts, but Jacksonville is far enough north, and not as prone to sea breezes on all sides as the rest o the state. What I am saying is, Jacksonville can be a bit more challenging. Let’s investigate, and see if today is as tough as I promised.
At 956PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. The airport was actually the cool spot in the area, with warmer temperatures south and along the coast. High pressure is firmly entrenched in the eastern third of the United States, and there isn’t a cloud in the sky over the Sunshine State.
The ridge will be dislodged through the middle of the week, as a robust trough starts to press out of the Rockies and into the Plains. The skies above Jacksonville will not betray a strong cold front on it’s way towards the city through the day Tuesday and much of the day Wednesday. Some clouds will finally arrive late in Wednesday, with a bit of high overcast, and an increase of winds. The rain and thunder will hold off until Thursday morning.
Tomorrow – Sunny morning haze, High 77, Low 57
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, with some breeze, High 85, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 78, Low 56
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 85, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 79, Low 54
Wednesday – Breezy with more clouds than sunshine High 84, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 56
Wednesday – Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 84, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 59
Wednesday – Patchy fog, mostly sunny, High 83, Low 65
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 63
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 58
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 80, Low 64
It turns out, it wasn’t a particularly adventuresome forecast. Time will tell if it is difficult. Despite how calm things looks for the next 48 hours in Jacksonville, the middle of the country looks to be pretty in line for another round of severe weather. Cold fronts catch the attention of Floridians, and this week will grab some attention. Right now, it’s a good night for stargazing.
I spoke too soon after confidently revealing the results of the verification in New Haven. The weather in Colorado Springs as the first third of the month concluded was poised to go downhill, but like the Rockies to the west, the slope was steep. Steeper than expected, frankly, and it resulted in some of the worst forecasts I’ve seen in a while. Snow was able to clear the Palmer Divide relatively early on Wednesday the 9th, and it was accompanied by cold air, without any of the bump that downsloping usually allows. it was one of the worst forecasts I’ve seen in a while, frankly, as temperature got significantly colder faster than anyone really expected. Then, there is Forecast.io who was a disaster, not even having snow in the forecast at all. Yikes all the way around. The Weather Service was merely bad, and not terrible, and secured this victory. They shouldn’t feel good about it, though.
Actuals: March 9th, snow, High 28, Low 3
March 10th, snow reported, not measured, High 12, low 0
Grade: C-F
The snowbirds are returning to the north, and while I don’t think Albany is a bit vacation destination, I would imagine there are several people travelling through or near Albany. This particular drive will last two days and cover 992 miles. The drive snakes through some larger towns, and not as much open country as would be conducive to a fast trip, so our pace will be about 65mph, with a day 1 journey of 523 miles, with a little bit shorter day to end it. Go home, Snowbirds!
DAY ONE (Friday)
What do I always say about spring and fall? The systems are bigger and badder, thanks to the clash of air masses, and the system that brought tornadoes to Austin and New Orleans, and continues to bring rain to the east coast, will linger on the Eastern Seaboard as we depart tomorrow, thanks to a deep occlusion and the whole beast just spinning itself over the Great Lakes. Our drive through Georgia and Tennessee will be just fine, but don’t be surprised to see clouds ahead of us when we reach Horse Cave, Kentucky. Lingering light precipitation isn’t moving too quickly thanks to the bogged down system. Horse Cave is near Mammoth Cave, so get away from all the weather worries and just go underground!
DAY TWO (Saturday)
Guidance suggests a lot more movement as the weekend approaches, but I’m not as optimistic. I don’t think it is going to be fully cleared out, say north from Indianapolis, as the models project. It will be chilly and cloudy, with lingering moisture. I would, therefore, anticipate a wet snowflake to fall at any moment as we trudge through Chicago and on north into Milwaukee. Everything slows traffic in Chi-town, but this should be a mild dose of it. Even if it takes a while for this precipitation to shove off, Sunday in Milwaukee should start to look like spring.
I have returned from vacation, and if our forecast in New Haven is any estimation, I didn’t really need one. The beginning of March was a warm one in New England, and that usually means rain. That was indeed the case in New Haven, where our forecast swooped in at the end of a warm spell which was ultimately marked by some rain. The cool down was deftly anticipated by Victoria-Weather, and that gained a victory for us.
Actuals: March 7th, .02 inches of rain, High 61, Low 48
March 8th, High 49, Low 32
Grade: B-C
We’ve reached spring break season, and I too am taking a vacation this month. Let’s hope that I am not thinking even a little bit about the weather while I am there! I guess I am saying I don’t want this
Jacksonville, Florida
Road Trip from Jacksonville to Syracuse, New York
Road trip from Tucson, Arizona to Muskegon, Michigan
San Francisco, California
Joplin, Missouri
Road Trip from Anniston, Alabama to Joplin