12:12 Look at this scattershot radar imagery. If you didn’t know any better, you would almost guess that these are snow showers. Pretty sure they aren’t though.
Updates 10/15
Updates 10/14
8:05PM: Hey, Montana, knock it off! I’m not ready yet
9:42PM: I know I keep harping on this pending cooldown, but truly, there are freeze warnings as far south as northern Oklahoma tonight. There are even a couple of counties in the Texas Panhandle that have a freeze warning. Stay warm out there!
Updates 10/13
1:11AM. I don’t know why, the phrasing struck me as funny.
235PM The models have been particularly good with many of our hurricanes this year, so even though it is very quiet, with just one tropical wave being monitored in the Atlantic, I thought I would look ahead. The GFS, at least, does foresee that wave becoming a feature that will eventually trouble the Greater Antilles.
By next weekend, the potential storm looks like it will be arriving around Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Deeper into fantasy land, it is expected to double back over the D.R., but let’s see if the storm comes to be at all first.
8:23 PM. It’s going to be a significantly cooler start to the week for the middle of the country than what we have seen for about the last month and a half. It’s been well above normal for many places, but it’s going to feel like fall. Just a reminder for my northern Plains brethren…. this is what fall feels like in Dallas.
1027PM One thing to look at in the next three days with the colder air intruding is the first threat for snow east of the Rockies this year. It’s looking like there will be a strong possibility for snow in the Catskills as a cold front moves through on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Not much, but enough to notice.
Springfield, Illinois to Providence, Rhode Island
We are free of hurricanes for a couple of days, at least, so we can take a guilt free trip from Illinois to New England. The drive will cover 1,152 miles over the course of two days. The pace of the drive will be about 66.5mph, which is pretty good, considering it terminates in New England. The faster of the two days will conclude after 532 miles. Hurricane season is also foliage season, so New England is a perfectly reasonable place to visit.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
High pressure is parked over the southeastern part of the country. It was crucial to keeping Milton from moving any further north, and instead cutting across Florida and jetting into the Atlantic. The storm was very bad where it struck, but it missed out on a lot of geography, which is good news. Now after the ridge has performed it’s life saving duty, the northern fringe is pressing south, thanks to a strong wave skirting the Great Lakes. There is quite a bit of wet weather in Lower Michigan, ready to drift into northern Ohio. As we travel out of Illinois through central Indiana Sunday, it will be dry, but increasingly cloudy in Ohio. I think the rain will b in Pennsylvania be the time we get to the eastern part of the Buckeye state, but thre could be a small bit of damp in Palmyra (southeast of Cleveland near the Pennsylvania border), where our day will come to a close.
DAY TWO (Monday)
A surprising amount of cold air will trail the cold front with the system moving into the Great Lakes. It will be chilly when we start in Palmyra, and there will be a few spots of showers peaking around the western exposures of the Poconos. Further north, higher terrain in New England will likely see their first snowflakes of the year. As the sun comes up, and the cold air settles in and snuffs out any instability, we will get into clearer air. The drive through Connecticut will be thick with traffic, I am sure, but it will dry and chilly until we reach Providence.
Idaho Falls, now with a variety of verifications
The forecasts for Idaho Falls at the end of the month were all over the map. Instead of falling somewhere in the middle of the group, the weather instead found itself on the cool side, particularly with low temperatures on October 1st. The sub freezing temperatures were forecast by only one outlet — Victoria-Weather. Forecasters were way too warm otherwise, and Victoria-Weather won fairly easily.
Actuals: September 30th, High 64, Low 42
October 1st, High 73, Low 31
Grade: A-D
Updates 10/8
7:58PM A brief time out in the Milton coverage, but I would also like to point out that tonight is the NHL opener, it is October 8th, and the NWS Tucson still needs to have this on their main page:
Good advice, but, wow. October? I guess hockey DID leave Arizona, so perhaps there is nothing to signal winter in the area anymore.
Updates 10/7
12:08AM: The various outlets are going all in on the Milton coverage, and it is warranted. While this storm won’t be the same as Helene – nothing may ever be – Milton will provide his own unique set of circumstances. First, he is tracking through the Gulf, directly at west Florida. This will undoubtedly lead to storm surge. Second, he is angling right for the Tampa area. Wind will also be a concern on top of the likely flooding in St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Sarasota. Third, and fortunately, Milton will cross Florida, and head off to sea, rather than make his way to the mountains.
Stay safe, west Florida. Even with all the action in the area the past few years, Milton looks to be the hardest punch to Tampa, perhaps in living memory.
Springfield, Illinois
There are countless Springfields across the country, but not many of them show up in the roster of potential forecast sites. Let’s make the Illinois version work for us.
At 1252PM, CT, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with a brisk west wind and clear skies. A cold front moved through the Great Lakes yesterday, with a stout ridge of high pressure building in behind the boundary.
A thermal ridge, backed by an upper level jet ridge will only reinforce the area of high pressure across the center of the country. Along with clear skies, expect some more unseasonable warmth in the Land of Lincoln.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny, High 76, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny skies, High 75, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 71, Low 43
Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 37
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 45
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 41
Pretty nice weather for like, May. A little strange for October. To give you an idea of how slow things are in Illinois, this is actually a satellite loop.
Lingering Lake Michigan Moisture
A cold front moved through the Great Lakes as the month of September ended. It wasn’t very rainy, but behind it, some of that lake moisture was suspended over Lower Michigan. Temperatures on the final day of September didn’t echo the overwhelmingly warm month for a lot of the country in Lansing, as fog and low clouds from the Lakes kept temperatures in the low 70s, about 5 degrees cooler than most anticipated. Some did anticipate it, though, like Accuweather, who put together a very good forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .04 inches of rain High 78, Low 62
Monday – High 71, Low 56
Grade: A-C
Updates 10/5
105AM: There is another area being monitored for tropical development in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and the latest run has really latched on to it. This is but one run of one model, but the latest Euro organizes it into a landfalling storm for mid-week in southwest Florida, and then, curiously, moving east into oblivion. It’s a strange track, but certainly something to continue to monitor.
7:47PM The area I discussed this morning is now Tropical Storm Milton, and he is indeed forecast to make a hard drive for Tampa later this week. The storm is already prognosticated to be a Major Hurricane upon it’s mid-week landfall. It will have to grind through quite a bit of shower activity over the Gulf to make it happen. We can see some of that activity now on radar.
