We have reached the most doldrum-y day of summer. Friday July 5th is a vacation day for a lot of people, and it is a pause for a lot of the national outlets as well (except for the NHC). It is going to be storming for a good part of the country, but strong activity should be few and far betwen.
It will continue like this for a few days, but Sunday, be on the lookout for Hurricane Beryl to landfall along the Mexican Border near Brownsville. The days of Cat-5 Beryl are long past, so perhaps many North Americans can focus on the Caribbean as it rebounds from the storm’s impact.
I once had a job where I would issue forecasts regularly for Tunica, Mississippi. It has nothing in common with Utica, except Tunica’s identifier is KUTA, and I had a coworker who regularly called Tunica “Utica”, and that is all I can think of when I think of Utica. I’m sorry, Utica.
At 353PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees and clear skies. Accompanying this warmth and sunshine was a brisk southerly well, importing still more warm air from the southeast. Low pressure is occluded and winding down over James Bay, but is still allowing for the vigorous southerly flow through western New York. Associated showers and storms won’t enjoy the instability they are seeing in southern Ontario right now, but a stray overnight shower in Utica seems likely. The evening of Independence Day tomorrow looks OK for fireworks. Orphaned moisture in the mid-Atlantic as the low moves from James Bay to Nunavut will linger and ensure some mid level clouds with light winds. Much of the day will be clear on Friday as well, with a return of warm south winds. The next feature will be emerging in the Upper Midwest through this time, and will bring a more likely shot of rain late on Friday. Tomorrow – Early showers, then mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 69 Friday – Sunny early with a late shower, High 88, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 86, Low 70 Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, very warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 67 Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 88, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 69 Friday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 83, Low 67 Friday – Partly sunny (late rain), High 88, Low 65
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 69 Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 66
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 67 Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 63
It looks like a warm start to the holiday weekend in western New York. I hope there and everywhere stays healthy and happy, while saying a little prayer for residents of the West Indies and Jamaica, who will spend the time recovering from Hurricane Beryl. As for the Mid-Atlantic, the satellite is more ominous than the forecast portends.
There was an enhanced risk for severe weather in southeast Iowa today, and sure enough, there were a couple of tornado reports near Iowa City, but aside from one cell, it was pretty quiet in the Hawkeye State. Further south, storms were more widespread, and there were several straight line wind reports in northwest Missouri. Fortunately, as the evening winds down, it is looking much quieter for residents of Missouri, with one severe line still roiling east of Kansas City.
You may be think I am talking about hurricane season, but nowadays, that begins in late May. Hurricane Beryl isn’t something that starts right at the beginning of the season — the beginning of the season is now earlier than it used to be.
No, I’m talking about something else: Monsoon season. We know it is here when we start getting WPC discussions that include the Gadsden Purchase.
Our forecast for Fairbanks late in June featured a pretty decent thunderstorm on the 21st. It resulted in about a quarter inch of rain, and the revelation to a few people, I’m sure, that there is thunder in the middle of Alaska. The low pressure that shifted out of the area allowed Fairbanks to see a bit more of the non stop daylight from around the summer equinox, and all that daylight pushed temperatures to close to 80. Victoria-Weather got the top forecast for the day, despite speculating on rain every day through the forecast. Actuals: June 21st, .23″ of rain, High 75, Low 53 June 22nd, High 79, Low 51
I mentioned the rain that is forecast to come this week, painting a particular target on eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin in my last update. Fortunately, the overlap with areas that have already seen too much rain this summer is not perfect. But there is still overlap, and the rain has caused some mighty problems for areas from the Siouxland of Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska northeast through south central Minnesota.
In southeastern South Dakota, McCook Lake, an unconnected oxbow lake suddenly had water flowing into it from runoff and redirected flow, causing it to overspill its bank, and destroying property north of Sioux City. The rising water damaged cropland from Nebraska and South Dakota east through northwest Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. The towns of Windom, Jackson and Waterville were underwater, because of the Des Moines River in Windom and Jackson, and the Cannon River in Waterville. The above video shows the scene in the south Twin Cities metro, where Shakopee’s Valley Fair Amusement Park had to close some rides and lost use of their parking lot because the Minnesota has spilled its banks. And of course, we have all seen video of the rising water opting to circumvent the Rapidan Dam, with disastrous regional effects.
Fortunately, it was a dry weekend. Unfortunately, the week ahead doesn’t look that way. A few more successive waves in the northern Plains look to keep things cool and wet. The bullseye for wet weather is shifted a bit to the east, so the smaller creeks and rivers may not see repeat flood risks, but most of these waterways flow in the same direction. Eventually, there may be concern for Mississippi River towns from the Twin Cities on south.
