San Francisco, California

San Francisco is one of the most difficult places to forecast for in California, bracketed alternately by sea and mountains, and set on an undulating peninsula itself. It’s also wonderfully exotic, and among the most interesting places in the world, in my opinion. This could be fun, is what I am saying.

At 156PM, PT, San Francisco was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees under clear skies. A light breeze off the Bay was helping to ensure things remained comfortable, but also was going to be a factor in visibility issues overnight. A ridge was set up across the western US, but had a short enough wavelength that there was no concern yet that this would turn into a long term, problematic feature.
Despite the high pressure through the US, and well agreed upon trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, there is a wide gap in model projections for the San Francisco area. As the low moves into the Northwest, winds will begin southerly tomorrow, and return westerly on Saturday. The southerly winds will bring significantly warmer conditions tomorrow, and the Pacific breezes will cool it right back down for the weekend, all without strong winds or much by way of cloud cover. Guidance is indecisive over how much temperatures will fluctuate, but with wind generally being mild, I’m opting to the more conservative route.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 82, Low 53
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 53

TWC: Mostly sunny skies. High 80, Low 49
Saturday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 65, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds High 83, Low 53
Saturday – Sun and areas of high clouds and cooler High 69, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 79, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny, High 67, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 57
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 64, Low 53

As o e might imagine, the forecasts are all over the map, thanks to the model indecision. One thing that is not all over map, is clouds.

SAn

Tucson, Arizona to Muskegon, Michigan

It’s time for everyone to head for home, all of you spring breakers and snow birds. Our early April drive will take us from beautiful Tucson up to the eastern shores of Lake Michigan, where I promise lake effect season is almost done. It is a 3 1/2 day trek, covering 1904 miles of the heartland. The three full days will involve 544 miles of travel at 68mph. Nice round numbers. Let’s hope the whole day trip is as accommodating.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

Tucson, Arizona

A little clipper of a system is organizing in the Montana foothills right now, and it will move towards the Upper Midwest through the day on Sunday. Something to keep an eye on for later in the day and later in the week. It will likely induce some cross wind from the south, especially later in the day as a cold front organizes through central Colorado. Fortunately, we will be enchanted by New Mexico without any other weather concerns on Sunday. We will make it to the ghost town of Cuervo, just past our entrance to I-40 east of Santa Rosa, New Mexico.

DAY TWO (Monday)
As the tail of the cold front to our north gets mixed up with hotter, more humid air in Texas and Oklahoma, it will start to churn up a bit more activity. We will have a dry time through the Texas Panhandle, but nearly the entire stretch of our drive in Oklahoma will be under the threat of showers and storms. Fortunately, we will be on the cold side of the feature by the time activity really gets going, but it will still be wet, with greater coverage northeast from Oklahoma City. We will get to Claremore, just past Tulsa, before we call it a night.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Tuesday’s drive will be a master class in timing. Precipitation will blossom in the southern Mississippi Valley, shifting towards the southern Atlantic states. We will probably catch a bit of the back end of the system as we pass through Illinois, but by and large, we will avoid any significant weather on Tuesday. We dodged that system! Meanwhile, yet another feature is emerging in the northern Plains, bigger and stronger than the last one. This is going to start sliding southeast, robbed of some moisture by the preceding storm, but gnarly enough in its own way. This next storm will arrive in Odell, Illinois, a couple of hours after we do. Bullets dodged.

DAY FOUR (Wednesday)
After a pretty fortuitous drive on Tuesday, things are going to be a little bit different on Wednesday. The next system is going to have a well put together cold front, running essentially along a line from Muskegon to Odell, We will be in windy rain through just about the entirety of the drive, including some spots of sleet as cold air tries to press in. Pretty gross. Don’t let it spoil your opinion of Muskegon, though.

Muskegon, Michigan

The calm before the storm

One might think the title is referencing the lack of significant stormy weather in the Jacksonville area, even as the southern US was undergoing another severe weather outbreak, but it is not. Instead, the title references the lack of range in the temperatures, even with an airmass shift coming the way of Jacksonville. The forecasters with the quieter (and warmer overnight) temperatures were the ones that excelled on this day. The Top forecast went to Weatherbug, their first win of the year, after a strong 2021.
Actuals: Tuesday: High 80, Low 60
Wednesday: High 82, Low 66

Grade: B-C