2025 Forecaster of the Year

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We made it, at long last, to the end of 2025, and are hopeful for a 2026 that is safe and contributes wisdom and collaboration to our lives and discourse. One thing that will be added here, is in the verifications, the grade will no longer be a range, but will be based on a consensus – basically the average – forecast, and how it compares to what verifies.

2025 was an eventful year in America, from fires in California at the beginning of the year to the first EF5 tornado in a decade, ocurring in Enderlin, North Dakota, and on to this winter, where attention returned again to the Golden State, as snow and rain before Christmas led to impassable roads and severe flooding. We checked in with a few forecasts every month, but who was the top forecaster of the month?

The Weather Channel had a tremendous year, beginning to end. Often times when writing these recaps, plugging in the verification data and reviewing things month to month, there is a bit of intrigue as to who will be the top spot. Not this year! The Weather Channel was the most frequent forecast champion, sure, but not in a runaway. They were, however, always consistently near the top, and rarely had clunkers. As a result, they are easily the 2025 Forecaster of the Year.

Outlet Forecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel 11.41
National Weather Service 9.41
Accuweather 8.83
Clime 7.75
Victoria-Weather 5.66
Weatherbug 4.5
WeatherNation 4.41

Atlantic City, New Jersey to Sacramento, California

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Our trek on this day is going to cover the nation, and will last a week. A real American road trip. The trip is going to span 2,846 miles, which covers about 66 miles an hour. This lengthy trip is going to be broken apart in about 524.5 mile daily chunks.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Atlantic City, New Jersey

Low pressure in the Great Lakes is doing something we can all appreciate: Moving quickly. The low will be out of the picture by the time we start heading out on Wednesday morning, and while the models aren’t capturing the Lake effect snow very well, it doesn’t much matter. We will indeed be driving just south of Lake Erie, but I don’t think the fetch will be right to bother us in northern Ohio. The drive will end in Sandusky, Ohio of conclude the first day on the road.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Thursday isn’t going to be great. We will start out fine, and make it through Chicago with little problem, but our next fast moving feature will be emerging from the Plains, and getting stronger and wetter before slamming into the Midwest. We will encounter rain starting around Joliet, and really getting going as we reach the Quad Cities. The rain will continue, heavy in spots, through Iowa City and on to our destination for the night in Williamsburg, Iowa, drenched.

DAY THREE (Friday)
The back side of our little storm will transition over to a bit of light snow while we rest in Williamsburg. The core of the system is going to continue on to the Great Lakes, and while there won’t be accumulation, the flurries on top of refreezing ice could make the entire drive through the Hawkeye state. No precipitation while we travel in Nebraska, but there is going to be a weak lee trough kicking up clouds as far east as Paxton, Friday’s destination.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
After a couple of tougher days, we might be a bit trepidatious about hitting the mountains. Fortunately, a ridge will be moving into the area, and driving the Nebraska Panhandle and the bulk of Wyoming will be pretty easy. We won’t make it out of Wyoming on Saturday, stopping for the day in Piedmont.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
We have a bit to go to wrap this trip up, but by this point, we will have undergone a significant change to the pattern. Surface high pressure off shore is stifling that Pineapple Express that has been so problematic this winter, and clear skies beckon from Utah, Nevada and on to California.

Coming Soon…

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Welcome to 2026. This is the twentieth year of this blog, which is incredible, for a few reasons. One, that I am old enough to be doing something for twenty years, that I’ve had the stamina to do it for twenty years, and that I still don’t know the first thing about coding or SEO.

Florence, Alabama

Rome, Georgia

Road Trip from Rome to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Bay City, Michigan to Atlantic City, New Jersey

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According to Google, it would be almost 8 hours to fly from the Bay City area to Atlantic City. It’s eleven and a half hours to make that drive. Combined with the wait at the airport, getting your bags, rental cars, etc. It’s probably shorter and definitely easier to drive. We’ll do this in one big day, covering the 741 miles at a pace of 64.4 miles.

Bay City, Michigan

As has been the case for weeks now, there is another feature rippling through the Great Lakes. This one is moving in from the central Plains, which is further south than anything we’ve seen for a while. That means it hasn’t really been able to tap into much moisture yet, which is great, because there isn’t any precipitation yet. It is cloudy now in Bay City, which will keep things from cooling too much overnight. Temperatures, in fact, will start to warm up overnight, which means the light precipitation moving through lower Michigan tomorrow morning will fall as rain, with a bit of a mix just as we get started. The threat will mostly wane after we pull through Toledo. Clouds will chase us into Pittsburgh, but by the time we get to the Allegheny Mountains, the sun should pop out. The low pressure center is going to be pretty broad, and the rotation associated with it will carry off shore. The southwesterly fetch could lead to a bit of low clouds and fog late in Atlantic City upon our arrival.

Atlantic City, New Jersey

Updates 1/5

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11:27AM: The Great Lakes are at it again, resulting in some half foot accumulations just this morning. The unusual bit of news, though, is that there is a weak fetch off of Lake Superior, and that snow is in northeastern Minnesota. It’s definitely not captured by the models, and it is barely showing up on radar, but it IS identified in this local storm report. This is ski country, so I don’t think anyone is mad about it.

3:05PM: I mentioned in an update yesterday that the US was enjoying a bit of a reprieve from early season severe weather. That reprieve is nearing its end. Unfortunately, with the active pattern on either coast, it was just a matter of time, and the first hints of a bit of severe weather coming on the horizon are now showing up in Louisville’s extended outlook. This is Day 5 (January 9th) so things are absolutely still in flux.

Updates 1/4

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12:12AM: There was a bit of rain in the Southeast today. Fortunately, it wasn’t followed by horribly cold air, but it was enough to bring the threat for some fog throughout the region. The hilly terrain north of Atlanta appears to be particularly susceptible into the early hours.

3:07PM: The first part of January can often feature some early season thunderstorms in the Southeast. That off-season outbreak that we can see a couple months before the real thing hasn’t really loomed as a threat this year. Instead, the focus is out west which is getting hammered by a relentless series of rain and snow. It’s not great for Californian’s right now, but the hope is going to be for an abundant spring and summer.

Updates 1/3

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9:40PM: I was never worried about the northern batch of wet weather reaching Atlantic City, but there was a slim chance that the low moving out of the Carolinas would wobble towards the coast and threaten the forecast of dry weather. Well, the nearest the rain is on shore is in Kill Devil Hills, NC. We should be OK.

Atlantic City, New Jersey

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Is is a good sign that the first forecast of the year is from a city notable for it’s gambling?

At 454PM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with clear skies. The region is between two jet streak troughs, which is continuing to lead to a deep area of low pressure over Nunavut that continues to instigate Lake effect snow in the eastern Great Lakes. The southern flank of the trough is going to provide a nurturing environment for cyclogenesis in the Lower Mississippi Valley initially, moving east towards the Carolinas.
Low pressure will continue to move eastward today from its present home in Arkansas, eventually reaching the Gulf Stream by tomorrow evening. The feature will subsequently continue to deepen and move north along the oceanic current. The pattern aloft will keep the unsettled weather offshore, and the welling from the south may lead to a bit of a warm up for Sunday. Not significant, but every degree this time of year helps.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 40, Low 27

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies High 33, Low 22
Sunday – Partly cloudy. High 37, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with some sunshine giving way to clouds High 34, Low 25
Sunday – Mostly sunny and breezy High 38, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 33, Low 22
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny High 38, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy High 31, Low 25
Sunday – Mostly sunny. High 36, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy 33, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast High 34, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny, High 38, Low 28

There is going to be a bit of a range inland where the airport lies and the city center. so we will see how the forecast plays out. Here is the Accuweather regional forecast, via ABC news in Philadelphia.

Updates 1/2

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9:14AM: Happy New Year, everyone! It’s day two of 2026, and it is a quieter start to the year than 2025 ended. There is a little bit of precipitation around Arkansas, as well as mountain snow in the northern Rockies, and ongoing snow in the Great Lakes, but no major headline grabbing features. My most important note for most of you is probably this: It’s Friday, today. I know it is a murky situation for everyone this time of year, the calendar.

Forget the chestnuts, make sure you’ve got the open fire

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Reno, like many location in the western US, had a rough go of things over Christmas. On Christmas Eve, in addition to some light snow mixing in, Reno saw 1.28″ of rain, and another .28″ of rain on Christmas Day, which accounts for about 20% of the expected ANNUAL rainfall in Reno. Temperature rebounded on Christmas to ensure all precipitation came as rain, but it was definitely a good day to spend indoors. Clime, which has absolutely no holiday spirit, successfully envisioned this forecast, and got the daily win.
Actuals: Wednesday – 1.28″ of rain and snow, High 53, Low 32
Thursday – .28″ of rain, High 50, Low 37

Grade: C-D

Happy New Year, all!