from Victoria-Weather
10:32PM: We focused on snow that will come this week, and there will be some disruptive shower activity through the middle of the week. I didn’t do a good enough job of conveying the possibility of thunderstorms. Look at all this lightning in Mississippi and Louisiana! Fortunately, only a flash flood warning for severe alerts right now.
We are arriving in one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, as millions of Americans will travel over the river and through the woods to Grandmother’s house. The great news is that most of the winter weather that is forthcoming is steering clear of the major airports. A shortwave will be pulling out of the southern Plains and headed for the mid-Atlantic by Tuesday afternoon but this will bring primarily rain and maybe a low cloud deck, both problems for flight operations.
But rain and clouds aren’t a disaster, as the clouds and visibility won’t be as low as they would be with a snowstorm. Any weather delays are likely just going to be secondary to the volume and other issues that arrive at airports. It will be slow in some important areas because of the rain, but not a disaster by any stretch of the imagination. I’m talking about New York, Philadelphia and Washington, reaching parts of coastal New England on Wednesday. By Thanksgiving, it will be clear and crisp up and down the Eastern Seaboard.
Fortunately, the threat for snow isn’t going to be a problem for most of the country, especially air travelers. Unless, of course, you are going to northern Minnesota. The occluded portion of the feature that will be responsible for the rain out east is also responsible for winter weather alerts from Montana to the UP of Michigan. The heaviest stripe of snow will be in Northern Minnesota, and should be wrapped up by midday on Wednesdsay.
This isn’t a ton of snow, and the roads that it impacts aren’t well travelled. There won’t be volume issues in Bismarck or Duluth or Rhinelander, some airports that will see some of this snow. Lake effect snow will become a problem on Thanksgiving, so Cleveland and Buffalo are going to be tricky for day-of traveling, and perhaps returning home on Friday as well.
Between the early start to tornado season and the exposure to hurricane season, Alabama is one of the more interesting places to forecast the weather. Undoubtedly, this is why James Spann, one of the more famous TV weatherpeople has built such a respected reputation, working in Birmingham. Perhaps we have an interesting forecast in our future?
At 1053PM, CT, Birmingham was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with overcast skies. There was weak ridging in the area tonight, helping to provide some stability, however a weakening disturbance over the Southern Plains is advancing to the east, and the attendant warm front runs through Tennessee. The rest of the energy will arrive in the late morning tomorrow, with light rain and an isolated rumble of thunder.
The back end of the energy lies well west of the precipitation that will begin tomorrow morning. Expect the coverage and intensity to pick up late tomorrow evening into Saturday morning. The tailing cold front will stall across central Alabama, leading to an ongoing threat of light rain to start the weekend. Fortunately, there is an area of surface high pressure behind the wave moving in overnight tonight, and the latter half of the weekend will be clearer.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 72, Low 58
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a smattering of light rain, High 75, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 70, Low 58
Saturday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Thunder possible. High 77, Low 58
AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 72, Low 60
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and warm High 75, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 59
Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 72, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 70, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then sunny in the afternoon. High 74, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and a chance of storms, High 72, Low 59
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 76, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 72, Low 58
Saturday – Light rain showers, High 77, Low 55
I think the response to the boundaries and clouds associated with this fairly quick moving system could really play havoc with this forecast. I should note that the low temperatures on Saturday are expected to occur at midnight leading to Sunday. The radar is showing off some showers, but few are reaching the ground….. yet.
Generally, when I put together a verification, which this post is, I use WeatherforMe.com’s “closest NWS site” option. For Santa Cruz, that site is San Martin, 25 miles away from Santa Cruz, and crucially, on the other side of the Santa Cruz Mountains. Temperatures there at initial check were about 15 degrees warmer than forecasts, and another 5-10 degrees colder for overnights. I decided to opt for the road less traveled, and used a MADIS site in town. It was still warmer than expected, but not as egregiously so. The arrival of a feature on the West Coast had effectively drawn the low scud away from the coast and allowed high temperatures to infiltrate. High temps on the 8th and 9th were both warmer than anyone had in the forecast, but low temperatures lined up. Accuweather had the best forecast. Would they have if we verified against a completely different climate?
Actuals: November 8th, High 76, Low 51
November 9th, High 77, Low 53
Grade: B-C
10:10AM: It’s definitely a pattern now. More precipitation, which is likely to fall as snow, out west. The Sierras and Wasatch will continue to pick up snow for the nexxt couple of days. Building this stockpile is what will help the region stay watered when spring finally rolls around. All good news!
We have quite a few forecasts ready for the holiday season. Unless you live out west, I guess.
Providence, Rhode Island
Raleigh, North Carolina
La Crosse, Wisconsin
Road Trip from La Crosse to Tuscon, Arizona
Sherman, Texas
Hot Springs, Arkansas
Road Trip from Sherman to Hot Springs
We are through the month of October, and admittedly halfway through the month of November. Most of the weather headlines were from outside of the country, but that didn’t mean there wasn’t weather domestically as well. The National Weather Service ended up winning the month, and this somewhat busy month led to a very close contest. This is good news for us all! Good forecasts for everyone!
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 9.41 |
| National Weather Service | 9.41 |
| Accuweather | 6.83 |
| Victoria-Weather | 5.16 |
| Clime | 4.75 |
| WeatherNation | 3.41 |
| Weatherbug | 3 |
The separator for our forecast today was one that I’m not sure I would have imagined. Temperatures in Greeley were very responsive to the wind, it seemed, which meant that the response to the clear skies was not to be had. On the 5th, temperaturs stopped dropping around 2AM, which meant that outlets with warmer lows ended up cleaning up. WeatherNation, therefore, cleaned up, earning a comfortable victory.
Actuals: November 4th, High 65, Low 34
November 5th, High 68, Low 37
Grade: A-C
1:48PM: We discussed in our recent road trip forecast the threat for snow in the Sierras, and potential treachery around Truckee for unsuspecting drivers. Well, by the look of the current forecast from the WPC, there should no longer be unsuspecting drivers.
That’s a 70% chance of more than 4″ of snow through tomorrow morning in the high terrain along the California/Nevada border. Get the chains ready!
I don’t have many examples of a road trip that starts in California that doesn’t take four or five days. We found one! It is only an 836 mile jaunt from Monterrey Bay to Provo, and will take us a day and a half. After we get to the free way, we will move pretty quickly, with an average speed of 65.8mph for the entire route. That means day one will target 526.6 miles, wherever that may lead.
DAY ONE (Saturday)
Wouldn’t you know it, but the one area of the country with significant weather tomorrow is the West Coast. A pretty significant slug of rain is going to arrive in the Central Coast tomorrow morning. Heavy rain and California roadways are not a match made in heaven, and it will be torrential at times from Santa Cruz to Sacramento. Mudslides in this hilly terrain might be a concern. The angle that this disturbance will come on shore will also circumvent the highest of the Sierras. Sure, there will be some flakes around Truckee pass, but there still may be a few showers in northern Nevada. Fortunately, the terrain, while still prone to flash flooding and mudslides, is more forgiving and gives I-80 a wide birth. Most importantly, the rain will be a lot lighter in the Silver State. We will reach Primeaux, which is east of Winnemucca, as our waypoint.
DAY TWO (Saturday)
Our little feature from central California is going to merge with a larger waves coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. Showers are probably less likely in eastern Nevada, but as we approach the Wasatch, they become more likely again. Just for fun, it might be a bit snowy in the higher terrain of this particular range as well, though we will be driving at a lower elevation through Salt Lake City and south into Provo. Just a bit rainy, is all.
