Greeley, Colorado

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With the newly advertised atmospheric river coming for the Pacific Northwest, there stands to be a bit more interesting weather eventually trickling into the High Plains of Colorado. But how soon?

At 856PM, MT, Greeley was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 43 degrees. Greeley was a pit on the temperature map, as Fort Collins to the west and Fort Morgan to the east were both still in the 50s, while Greeley aligned more with Cheyenne and Laramie, where it had tarted to cool down. Flow is fairly calm, however there is a stream of high clouds showing up south of Denver.
The jet fostering low pressure will eventually emerge in the central Rockies, and dig into the high pressure in the Plains. Low pressure will begin to organize in Montana, drawing more warm, dry air through Greeley. With low pressure organizing so far north, there is no threat for rain in the Greeley area.
Tomorrow – Fair skies, High 67, Low 30
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 31
Thursday – A few passing clouds, otherwise generally sunny. High 68, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and not as warm but pleasant High 66, Low 31
Thursday – Mostly sunny and windy High 69, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 32
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 38
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 65, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 35
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 31
Thursday – Partly cloudy High 68, Low 30

It’s such a wildcard this time of year in the High Plains and Front Range. The forecasts are all pretty similar, which means we are all going to be wrong in the same way. Satellite shows a few clouds tonight, generally to the south.

Rain that just won’t stop

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I have a general rule of thumb in the winter. I won’t believe it is done snowing until it is actually done snowing. If there are flurries, I’m just going to keep those flurries in the forecast. There are thermodynamic reasons for this that maybe I can get into at another time. Those thermodynamic reasons don’t apply to light rain showers, but perhaps I should have heeded that “just leave it in the forecast” ethos when forecasting for Elkhart last month. Rain looked like it was on the way out of town when I produced the forecast, but it didn’t leave on Thursday the 23rd, as I assumed it would. It also didn’t leave on Friday, which more of us didn’t think was the future in Elkhart. This soggy end of the week was best handled by the National Weather Service, who collected a forecast win.
Actuals October 23rd: .07″ of rain, High 51, Low 37
October 24th, .02″ of rain, High 53, Low 34

Grade: C-D

Updates 11/3

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3:57PM: Time for an advisory, if you need it: it’s November now, which means you need to start reviewing the WPC page for the heavy snowfall outlooks, as well as weaning off the SPC and NHC. Thank you, and apologies.

7:32PM: More from the WPC: All that incoming snow in the Pacific Northwest has been ascribed the atmospheric river label. It’s going to be snowy!

11:13PM: All this about the cooler weather inbound, I would be remis if I didn’t point out … It’s going to be warmer than normal for a healthy chunk of the country this week.

Updates 11/1

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2:50PM: See how the clouds are kind of ribbed throughout New England? Well, that means it is quite windy across the region, at the level at which the clouds lie. I can tell you it is fairly breezy at the surface, as well.

9:10PM: The wind that was evident in the image above is also responsible for bringing in quite a bit of chilly air. There are actually frost advisories tonight as far south as North Carolina.

Burlington, North Carolina

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Burlington started its life called “Company Shops” because the railroads started the town as a spot to service trains in North Carolina. As railroads merged and the trains that used Company Shops put their work elsewhere, residents decided to rename the town. They picked the name “Burlington”…. naming the town after a passing train.

At 1059PM, ET, Burlington was reporting rain and low overcast. The temperature was 52 degrees. In the wake of a coastal feature that brought the region rain yesterday, another rain maker is moving out of the Tennessee Valley tonight. In this case, the area of low pressure is starting to move to the north, and an occluded cold front will be responsible for the rain overnight tonight.
Because of the occlusion, the post-frontal cooldown will not be dramatic. The rain will end through the late morning, with drier air and a bit of sunshine then filtering back into the picture. High pressure will build in, giving the region a much needed break from the rain.
Tomorrow – Rain early, then clearing, High 62, Low 48
Friday – Sunny, High 58, low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon (AM Rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny skies. High 62, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, clouds breaking for some sun (AM Rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, plenty of sun; cool for trick-or-treating High 60, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, (AM rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny, High 62, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning.  High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny.  High 59, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (early rain) High 62, Low 49
Friday – Sunny, High 62, Low 42

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 62, low 48
Friday – Sunny, High 61, Low 42

Well, if the high tomorrow isn’t 62 degrees, I think I’m going to have to talk to someone. Pretty rainy tonight, but I did forget that Friday is Halloween, and that looks like a good night for Trick or Treating.

Updates 10/29

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7:15PM: We are headed towards Halloween at the end of the week, and whether you like it or not, the weather looks to be on the warm side for a lot of the country. The core of the most above normal warmth looks to be around the Rockies, where Salt Lake City is looking at temperatures around 60 degrees. Trick or Treat!

Durham, North Carolina

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Durham is one of the three members of the “Research Triangle” in eastern North Carolina, and is famous also for being the home of Duke University, who have historically had a strong basketball program.

At 815PM, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with rain. There was an area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina, and to say the least, it has been a robust rain producer, and almost the entire state east of the mountains was experiencing rain this evening. The feature is associated with a robust seasonal jet stream, and will shift into the north Atlantic, where it will help to establish a steering mechanism to keep Hurricane Melissa away from the US mainland.
The pattern across the US is quite active this week. While rain will diminish by late on Tuesday, but a deeper digging trough with it’s own area of surface low pressure will be sliding through the southern US. By Wednesday, the stalled boundary associated with the low in the Atlantic will link with the rising warm front, bringing rain back into the forecast for the morning. Wednesday will see temperatures pop a bit, with some thunderstorms coming in after sunset.
Tomorrow – Showers through the day, High 50, Low 47
Wednesday – Rain early, then some thunder late, High 58, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain, High 51, Low 48
Wednesday – Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 56, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cool with rain High 51, Low 46
Wednesday – Occasional rain and drizzle in the morning followed by periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 57, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. High 52, Low 47
Wednesday – Rain likely before 8am, then showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Rain. High 53, Low 48
Wednesday – Rain likely with areas of drizzle in the morning then showers likely in the afternoon High 55, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 52, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with rain likely, High 58, Low 47

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 51, Low 47
Wednesday – Rain Showers, High 55, Low 47

Sorry, Durham. Wish I had better news for you. Look at all this rain!

Hold on tight!

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We assembled a forecast for Dover ahead of the Nor’Easter that shook up the East Coast earlier this month. Yeah, it rained, sure temperatures came down, but I really wanted to see what the wind registered at. It gusted to nearly 40MPH on Sunday the 12th! After the hatches were properly battened, we could appreciate a good clustering of forecasts. Ultimately, the National Weather Service narrowly overcame the other outlets.
Actuals: October 11th, .11 inches of rain, High 69, Low 52
October 12th, .43 inches of rain, High 66, Low 57

Grade: B-C

Updates 10/25

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10:18PM: Well, the good news in northern Indiana is that light rain we were eyeballing in the forecast for Elkhart is on the way out. The bad news is that a feature in Texas may be a bit more virulent than anticipated initially, and could bring a spot of light rain to the area overnight tonight. Better than severe weather, though, as is being seen in the Lone Star State tonight!