I think we have all been here long enough to see what outlets we expect to rate near the top of the heap in most months, and which are going to be a bit further down in the pecking order. The Weather Channel, the Weather Service and Accuweather (along with Victoria-Weather sometimes) are typically near the top, so it is a real underdog story when another outlet grabs the title. This is one of those months. Weatherbug was the top forecaster of the month, despite having had the toughest go of it for the first 10 months of the year.
It was a chilly weekend last weekend, particularly Sunday, in north Texas. We had a forecast for Sherman, and we knew that it was going to cool down, but clearly, we weren’t fully appreciative of how cold it was going to get. Accuweather had the top forecast for the weekend, and even they were 10 degrees too warm on the Sunday high of 37. Fortunately for them, that was the one really big issue they had, successfully navigating the rest of the forecast. Actuals: Saturday – High 66, Low 35 Sunday – High 37, Low 26
Let’s head west! Our drive is a little bit longer than the previous one, with this one coverinf three time zones, 4 days and 2,088 miles. We will be able to enjoy the luxuries of highway travel throughout much of the journey, which will afford a pace of 65.25mph, and 522 miles a day. Will we finally see some warm weather?
DAY ONE (Thursday)
Hot Springs, Arkansas
With high pressure beginning to drift out of hte central US, the cold air is alleviating. This, unfrotunately, also means that access to the Gulf is opening again, and some surface moisture is expected to get into the western parts of Arkansas, particularly the valleys, in the morning. This may manifest as a bit of light rain between Hot Springs and the Oklahoma border, but more likely, it will be seen as fog and low clouds. Low pressure is emerging in the northern Plains by tomorrow, and a cold front is going to emerge along our route. No concerns for developing showers or storms, but behind it, there will be a brisk northwest wind. Clear skies are expected after Henryetta, and winds should start to taper off around El Reno. The day will end in Groom, Texas, which is just east of Amarillo.
DAY TWO (Friday) Another wave is going to ripple through the Rockies into the High Plains. What will this mean for us? Not much, save for more blustery winds between Amarillo and Santa Rosa, New Mexico. We will enjoy a bit more tranquil conditions though the high terrain of western New Mexico, and make it to the Painted Desert National Park in Arizona.
DAY THREE (Saturday) The weather is really going ot be churning in the northwestern US, however there isn’t a whole lot to tlk about in the southwest. It won’t be hot in the desert, as we may be accustomed to thinking, which is good news, because our day will end at Edwards Air Force Base.
DAY FOUR (Sunday) It’s probably the best to take highway 99 north through California on a Sunday, right? Or is most of the traffic hanging out on 5? Or does anyone even drive in the Central Valley? Nevertheless, we will be doing it on Sunday, as another system moves into the Pacific Northwest. In the Valley, we will see a smattering of light rain, while the hills and mountains east of us will contend with some significant snow fall, once again. The rain for us will come into the picture around Kingsburg, and in points northward. Sad to say, it may be a bit drizzly in northern California by the time we arrive in Redding on Sunday afternoon.
Northern California tonight, to a part of the state that can be just as hot as the southern part of the state, especially inland, like Redding is.
At 753PM, PT, Redding was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 46 degrees. There was a little bit of haze at the surface, as there appeared to be throughout the area. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska has banded a cold front moving into the west coast, with a few showers seen from Yreka to Eureka. As is often the case, the first attempt at translating through the area will be unsuccessful, however the strong jet will move inland, and low pressure will reconstitute north of Vancouver Island by tomorrow. Rain will move into Redding in the afternoon, which will be heavy at times. Because of the terrain on the coast, the center of low pressure will appear to hop from north of Vancouver Island to the southern part of British Columbia. The phasing of the low is indicative of this system being particularly strong for the west coast. The trough is strong and short waved enough to continue moving eastward into the Prairies. Rain will continue in northern California through Wednesday morning, but will start to clear out through the afternoon. Unfortunately, there will likely be some low clouds and fog leftover as a parting gift, particularly after night fall. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain becoming heavier in the afternoon, High 50, Low 41 Wednesday – A bit more sun in the afternoon, but rain early, High 56, Low 44
TWC: Tomorrow -Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 47, Low 45 Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day (early rain). High 52, Low 45
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cool with a little rain High 51, Low 44 Wednesday – A couple of morning showers; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 58, Low 43
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 8am. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am High 55, Low 46 Wednesday – Showers. High 58, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Widespread fog. . . Locally dense in the morning. High 46, Low 46 Wednesday – Rain showers. High 48, Low 42
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 55, Low 46 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with light showers, High 58, Low 46
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 53, Low 37 Wednesday – Rain showers, High 52, Low 44
Oh my goodness, this forecast is haunted. I have reviewed the numbers, and there are no typos. Weatherbug has the same high as the low tomorrow. Clime really is 9 degrees colder than the what most others think. The rain timelines are all different. This verification is going to be something else. Here is the radar, with showers northwest of Redding.
It’s a short trip today, but really, a four hour trip between a couple of towns that avoids much population anywhere along the way is pretty exciting. This means that we haven’t really been able to talk about a trip through places like Paris, Texas, or Broken Bow, Oklahoma or De Queen, Arkansas. not that the post will include them after this, but still! It’s a 239 mile journey that will last just shy of 4 1/2 hours, covering only 54.5. At that pace, maybe we will lament driving through Paris, Broken Bow and De Queen.
Sherman, Texas
If you have been following along here at Victoria-Weather, or if you have been outside east of the Rockies lately, you know that it is pretty chilly. A warm up is coming, however, as high pressure that has been keeping it so cold is shuffling eastward. This won’t disrupt the day at all, as it often can when one air mass leaves town. The tail of the surface high is sinking into hte northern Gulf, which will prevent moisture from infiltrating our route. It should be a fine day for driving, in about perfect conditions for keeping the windows rolled up, but without needing the heat or AC.
There are only two more shopping weekends before Christmas (including this one) so I recommend you get out there ASAP!
At 1153AM, CT, Hot Springs was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with overcast skies. A trough is sinking from the north, with a band of snow scooting through Iowa and Missouri, with a blob of clouds pressing south into Arkansas. The clouds are layered at the lower levels, and aren’t likely to scatter out through the day today. Tomorrow will be a very cold day for western Arkansas as cold air continues to cycle into the area. Relief will be on the way during the work week, with a thermal ridge starting to build back in late on Monday. Tomorrow – Sunny and cold, High 37, Low 23 Monday – A hair warmer in the afternoon, High 46, Low 17
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Turning colder. High 34, Low 26 Monday – A mainly sunny sky. High 43, Low 20
AW: Tomorrow – Colder with plenty of sun High 38, Low 25 Monday – Not as cold with plenty of sun High 45, Low 20
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 26, Low 24 Monday – Sunny, High 41, Low 18
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Much cooler High 34, Low 30 Monday – Sunny. Not as coo High 40, Low 20
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 31, Low 24 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 18
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 22 Monday – Sunny, High 45, Low 18
“Hot” Springs, am I right? There was a much greater diversity to the spread of forecast temperatures from model to model today for a clear sky forecast than what I like to see. The clouds are low enough that they aren’t really showing up on the satellite.
December came with a punch of cold air to the Upper Mississippi Valley, with the first subzero temperatures of the season arriving in La Crosse on the 4th. Fortunately, it wasn’t quite as chilly as the forecasts called for (except, ironically, Weatherbug). Unfortunately, it was a precursor to the vicious cold snap coming this weekend. Wind chills will easily eclipse -20 tomorrow morning. If you want to think warm thoughts, think about the warm fuzzy feeling The Weather Channel must have for nailing the forecast from back on the second. That should do it, right? Actuals: December 3rd, .03″ of precipitation, as snow, High 30, Low 8 December 4th, High 15, Low -2
The forecast for the day will come from north Texas. Given the pattern right now, this might be one of the colder forecasts you see from Texas.
At 115PM, CT, Sherman was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees. Skies were clear behind a trough sweeping a band of clouds through the Piney Woods. Dew points in north Texas have already dropped off, but the lag in temperature gradient goes back to Kansas, where temperatures have dropped into the 30s. A succession of clippers have moved through the Upper Midwest, riding a strong jet streak through the Plains. The jet streak is expected to start oscillating through the weekend, with high pressure then building in the south central US. High pressure building in the Plains will do so on the back of cold weather from Canada. With a deep trough at the upper levels, there is enough cyclonic flow to continue reinforcing cold air in North Texas. The thermal ridge will wait until the middle of next week to start taking temperatures back up. Before then, don’t be surprised to see some sub-freezing air arrive in Sherman Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 39 Sunday – Sunny and a bit warmer, High 42, Low 26
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 61, low 38 Sunday – Sunny. High 42, Low 27
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun; best day of the weekend High 65, low 37 Sunday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the morning, then turning much colder high 47, Low 26
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 63, Low 38 Sunday – Sunny, high 46, Low 28
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 60, Low 38 Sunday – Sunny. Much cooler High 44, low 33
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 38 Sunday – Sunny, High 46, Low 28
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 38 Sunday – Sunny, High 42, low 27
It’s going to be interesting to see how quickly temperatures fall off on Saturday night. There is a good chance that is a midnight high. It’s clear right now, but don’t let that fool you!
I verified Raleigh earlier this week, and completely skipped over the verification for Providence. This was a busy forecast, with some rain coming into the area just as Thanksgiving was drawing near. There was rain on both Wednesday and a bit of a splash on Thanksgiving Day. As promised, the weather cleared by afternoon, which allowed locals to get out of the house and go for a walk to allow all that turkey to digest. The rainfall wasn’t universally included in the forecast, which really shuffled the standings. Weatherbug had the top temperature forecast, but fell back into a tie with Victoria-Weather – which makes me even more irritated I missed the verification! -for first place. Actuals: November 26th, .18″ of rain, High 59, Low 53 Thanksgiving – .01″ of rain, High 55, Low 37
