Tag Archives: Tulsa

Many bullets dodged

Tulsa was the forecast we monitored over the weekend, and it was in a white knuckled tussle with thunderstorms. No storms actually hit the airport, but on Saturday, thunderstorms were reported in the vicinity. I didn’t have the heart to mark anyone wrong, for not having precipitation, nor for having thunderstorms in the forecast, because everyone was right. Therefore, it came down to temperatures. Without any activity on Sunday, temperatures spiked again in the low 90s. Only one outlet went that warm, and Forecast.io was able to claim victory as a result
Actuals: Saturday – Thunderstorms in the vicinity, High 93, Low 76
Sunday – High 92, Low 70

Grade: C-D

Ann Arbor, Michigan to Tulsa, Oklahoma

Michigan to Oklahoma doesn’t seem quite as long a journey as some of our treks have been, but this will still cost us a day and a half to navigate the heart of the Mississippi Valley. We have 902 miles to cover, which we will do at a pace of 68mph, despite a slog through Chicago. We will thus cover 545 miles of our journey on Saturday, leaving that last meat on the bone for Sunday.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

An area of low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic is bringing all sorts of showers and embedded thunderstorms from the Upper Ohio Valley east towards southern New England. Of course, this is south of our route, but the circulation associated with this feature will sneak a bit of moisture back over the Great Lakes. A small perturbation over southern Lake Michigan will kick up a few clouds and maybe a stray shower in the Chicago region in the afternoon. We will likely make it through there by the time showers pick up, but surely, there will be some mostly cloudy skies in the Land of Lincoln regardless of whether or not we see sprinkles. Our Saturday drive will take us to Gray Summitt, Missouri, just west of St. Louis.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
An upper level trough over the southern Plains is going to churn up some southerly flow, destabilizing the atmosphere across Oklahoma. Storms will probably be erupting fairly early in the afternoon, anywhere over our last couple of hours of driving, between Springfield and Tulsa. Most of it will be rain, but don’t be surprised by an embedded thunderstorm, either.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

I think the thing most people think about when they hear “Oklahoma” and “weather” is tornadoes. Sure, Oklahoma gets a lot of twisters, but they also endure freezing rain like I can barely believe in the winter. In the summer, though it’s all about the heat.

At 953AM, CT, it was already 85 degrees under the sun in Tulsa. Dew points were in the low 70s across the region, but mostly cloudy skies were providing temporary shade. The tail of a cold front associated with low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes was touching of showers and storms even at this hour over north Texas, which will sap the convective energy in Oklahoma. In fact, there is an inversion across Oklahoma with subsiding post frontal air trapping all manner of smoke and haze in the Tulsa area.
A sharply angled trough will become cutoff and orphan an area of circulation over the southern Rockies through the weekend. This will generate a a bit more southeasterly flow across the southern Plains. This sounds like bad news, but actually, it will pump more moisture into the region, destabilizing the region. Storms will be isolated Saturday, but by Sunday afternoon, expect the area to be rife with shower and thunderstorm activity.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 72
Sunday – Scattered showers and storms around, with some isolated showers, High 88, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow =- Partly cloudy High 91, Low 72
Sunday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 88, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Cloudy, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 87, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 71
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 87, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 95, Low 71
Sunday – Light rain in the evening.High 91, Low 71

A look at the satellite shows some activity across Texas. This is what we will expect in the next few days for eastern Oklahoma as well.

The Tulsa two step

A remnant stationary boundary has lain roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border for days. In the heat of summer, this often means raging mesoscale convective complexes that strafe the same area and last for a considerable amount of time. With this particular outbreak, the tracks that these storms have been training along have been just south of Tulsa. Tulsa reported rain on Friday and Saturday, but it was only in scant amounts. The storms were close enough that other airports in the vicinity reported nearly half an inch of rain. As the squalls passed by, Tulsa did report a 4mph gust on Friday morning thanks to an outflow boundary, but that was as exciting as it got. The NWS and Weatherbug had the same forecast, and as luck would have it, they ended up tying in first place.
Actuals: Friday – .01 inches of rain, High 85, Low 70
Saturday – .05 inches of rain, High 86, Lpw 67

Grade: A

Tulsa, Oklahoma to Poughkeepsie, New York

Time to hit the road again. We’re going to set forth on a 2 1/2 day excursion that covers 1394 miles. This trip, taking us north of the length of the Ohio will move at a pace of 64.3mph, which means the weekend bits of the drive will be through after 514 hours, with a little bit less to look forward to on Monday.

DAY ONE (Saturday)
We are in a decidedly unfavorable weather pattern for the center of the country. Strong thunderstorms are the order of the day as wave after wave rides a stationary boundary born of high pressure and Gulf moisture. Tomorrow, the strongest wave will be moving right on through Missouri. As luck would have it, we will likely spend most of the drive between Joplin and St. Louis within a torrential downpour as the storm moves and builds right along with us. It won’t have enough momentum to reach too deeply into Illinois, but it will rain until Effingham. Oh, and some lighter showers are expected around Tulsa too. It’s going to be a rough day of driving, is what I’m saying. We will make it past Effingham tomorrow, and end up in Greenup, Illinois on Saturday night.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
The showers and storms won’t be as heavy on Sunday as the wave dissociates from the boundary and generally becomes more unraveled, but the rain will still continue at about the same pace as us. While on Saturday we were just ahead of, or smack dab within the heavy weather, on Sunday we will be chasing it, so I don’t think breezy conditions will be a problem, and we will see a few more breaks. Still, the threat for rain will continue throughout the drive on Sunday so city traffic will be really slow in Indianapolis or Columbus. It’s just going to be showers, we might not even see any thunderstorms, and we will finish the day in Clintonville in western Pennsylvania.

DAY THREE (Monday)
BY the time Monday rolls around, we are just going to worry about some general instability across the region as the wave continues to dissipate. It will be touched off more readily over the higher terrain, and won’t be much of a problem when we descend into the Hudson Valley. It will probably be some mostly cloudy skies in Poughkeepsie, but I don’t think that the thunderstorms will be widespread enough to guarantee storms upon our arrival.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

There is some serious weather going on in southern Missouri right now. Is Tulsa in the clear for the next two days? Let’s find out.

At 1025AM, CT, Tulsa was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with overcast skies an light rain. They were at the back end of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) raging through southern Missouri with 70-80mph winds as well as hail and heavy rain. The storm is riding a weak surface boundary that will linger through the region through the next couple of days.
Standing low pressure in west Texas, representing the seasonal dry line will interact with a less traditional west to east dry line along the Oklahoma-Kansas border to produce a continued threat of self sustaining MCS thunderstorms. There is almost now upper level flow across the country, but building dry high pressure through the Plains behind a deeper trough in Canada will provide the necessary surface conflict for thunderstorm development in northern Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center has Tulsa in a slight risk each of the next two days, and though the usual hail and tornado caveats are in there, the real threat will be strong straight line winds, with an MCS expected to develop out near the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight and arrive in Tulsa in the early morning. Warmer Gulf air will build further north on Saturday morning and a weak cold front will move into the plains and draw some instagatory focus, which will waylay the arrival of thunderstorms in Tulsa until evening, and introduce a greater threat for large hail with discrete supercellular development ahead of the line that will develop over Kansas.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, but thunderstorms likely, especially early. Some storms will contain very gusty winds. High 86, Low 74
Saturday – Warmer, with most of the convection north of town early. Thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely through the evening, High 88, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow- Scattered T-Storms High 85, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered T-StormsPotential for severe thunderstorms High 87, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Watch for strong afternoon thunderstorms; storms can bring downpours, large hail and damaging winds High 87, Low 73
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with a thunderstorm High 87, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 71
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 71
Saturday- Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 84, Low 72
Saturday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 84, Low 70

Apologies for the scattershot cluster of a forecast discussion. There is so much that could go awry with the forecast because the forcing and potential trigger mechanisms aren’t generally large enough for most models to pick up on. I tried to include as many potential issues as possible, and I think I just made it confusing. The takeaway is that there will be more storms around Tulsa. Here is the current radar, showing activity skipping town at this hour.

Battle Creek, Michigan to Tulsa, Oklahoma

Our trip through the Midwest will cover 829 miles over the course of a day and a half. It’s pretty much the perfect road trip, if you ask me. We will drive through the open Plains, which is good for rocking out with the windows down, see some terrain around the Ozarks and pass through some metropolises in Chicago and St. Louis. Our speed will be 64.7mph, which is fairly remarkable given the cities we are headed through, which means the first day will be done after 517 miles of travelling. There will be some nasty storms to navigate through, so lets make sure to keep our eyes on the road.

It won’t be long until we reach the cold front on our drive tomorrow. The occlusion will actually be in southwestern Michigan, which means it will be plenty warm, and precipitation will be falling as thunderstorms rage in the area. The heaviest precipitation will fall from Kalamazoo to Gary, Indiana, and there is a fair chance some of those storms will be severe with gusty winds. The heavy downpours will certainly tie up traffic through Chicago. More generalized rain will be possible after we pass through the Windy City, and will continue through Illinois and St. Louis. The rain will be much more intermittent and light by the time we arrive in Cuba, Missouri, which is southwest of the St. Louis metro, getting closer to Rolla.

A standing lee trough is developing in the southern Plains, so even though we will be post frontal at the beginning of the day, a southerly flow through some recently dampened terrain will mean overcast skies and some isolated showers through the Ozarks. I would like to promise at least one solid day of dry driving, but I’m afraid I can’t this time.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

I messed up yesterday. Yesterday I was supposed to forecast for Tulsa, and today I was to forecast for Birmingham. I flip flopped. Calendars are tough. But here we are, with what should be a forecast that will be pretty easy.

At 753PM, CT, Tulsa was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. The temperature map seemed completely nonsensical, as Tulsa was 10-15 degrees warmer than many nearby sights, but there were other pockets of warm temperatures across the area. With clear skies in the area, this appears to be an extreme effect of local influences, rather than of anything atmospheric.
There really won’t be much going on atmospherically for the next 48 hours either. The sharp shortwave that has been bringing so many issues to the country lately is moving well east of the the region, leaving a cool, autumnal area of high pressure across the region.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny and warmer, High 77, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 74, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny High 79, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine, pleasant and warmer High 76, Low 45
Tuesday – Delightful with sunshine High 81, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 77, Low 44
Tuesday – Sunny High 79, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 75, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny High 78, Low 48

Look at these wackadoodle temperatures. Weird.

Well, That Was Weird

After a couple of harrowing days in the Tulsa area, and further to the southwest as well, Wednesday was nice and quiet. Exactly what they needed to clear their heads from this weather craziness. Thursday… was peculiar. Overcast skies moved in by midday, rain and thunderstorms kicked up over the area, and the temperatures never made it out of the mid 60’s. The north-northwesterly flow over the area for the day kept it remarkably cool, significantly below all predictions. There was a 3-day tie for the best of the worst between Weather Channel, the NWS, and Weatherbug.

Wednesday: High 80, Low 51.
Thursday: 0.40″ in afternoon thunderstorms. High 66, Low 57.
Forecast Grade: D

Tulsa, Oklahoma

Yesterday was a very difficult day for residents of Oklahoma. The attention was given to Moore, but much Oklahoma dealt with significant, damaging weather. Tornadoes skirted Tulsa as well. Fortunately, it looks like things are looking up, at least in terms of the weather for the Sooner State.

At 404PM, CT, Tulsa was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and light rain. The last bit of rain was on its way out of town, with the back edge stretching from Tulsa to McAllister. A relatively crisp air mass was moving out of the Plains to replace the stormy weather of the past couple of days, as evidenced by temperatures already checking in in the 50s.
The pattern looks fairly quiet for the next two days, however model guidance is indicating the development of a lower level vorticity maximum moving out of west Texas into Oklahoma. Better long range models, however, aren’t as bullish on that threat, instead seeming to indicate dry line thunderstorm activity over western Oklahoma, while Tulsa can enjoy a couple days in peace.
Tomorrow – Sunny and cooler. High 82, Low 53
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 53
Thursday – Scattered T-Storms High 80, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and less humid High 82, Low 56
Thursday – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 80, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 54
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am High 78, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow, Mostly sunny High 80, Low 56
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 78, Low 58

I guess we will see how the rain situation plays out on Thursday. I hope it stays dry, not for my forecast, but so people in the area can go a day without seeing darkening skies on the horizon. You can see the rain on its way out of town.