Here comes Lee in Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
Some diurnally, topographically induced thunderstorms rumbled in Johnson City on Saturday, while an encroaching front kicked up even more activity on Sunday. Now, the front has stalled and is drawing all of Lee's remnants north into the central Appalachians, inundating the town. This certainly has been a heck of a holiday weekend, hasn't it been, Tri-Cities? The Weather Channel and Weatherbug had the same forecast in town, and as a result ended up with the same, winning score.
Actuals: Saturday - Thunderstorms reported, precip not measured, High 96, Low 64
Sunday - .06inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 65
Grade: B
Johnson City, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
It's a beautiful day today in Johnson City. Will that weather continue?
At 1055AM, ET, Johnson City was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with sunny skies. Johnson City found itself on the hot side of a warm front that was attached to the first fall like system of the year, moving through the upper Midwest, and temperatures today were expected to be very warm.
A slow moving tropical depression in the Gulf, mentioned yesterday, will effectively cut off any moisture that attempts to navigate it's way into the Johnson City area, and conditions will be less humid than they have been. Towards the tail end of the period, late in the day Sunday, the cold front moving through the Great Lakes now will entrain some of the moisture from the Tropical Storm, much like what happened to Irene in southern New England a couple of weeks ago, and the threat for rain will arrive in town late on Sunday.
Tomorrow - Sunny and warm, High 93, Low 62
Sunday - Increasing clouds, with rain and storms late, High 85, Low 64
TWC: Tomorrow - Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, Low 67
Sunday - Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 88, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow - Sunny to partly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 61
Sunday - More clouds than sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 88, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, High 93, Low 64
Sunday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, Low 64
Sunday - Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 86, Low 67
I like lower low temperatures for the area... With dewpoints cooling off, I don't think they will have much keeping them from falling off overnight. Here is a pretty quiet satellite for the southeast.
Quite the Warmup
Posted by Anthony
Most of the competition had Johnson City warming up a significant amount on Sunday after being caught in clouds and a couple light showers for Saturday. VW, however, had the biggest warmup out of anybody, which propelled us to victory yet again, despite our gamble of keeping the area try on Saturday. Darn morning showers.
Saturday: 0.02 in early morning rain showers. High 59, Low 36.
Sunday: Much warmer. High 74, Low 31.
Forecast Grade: B
Worcester, Massachusetts to Johnson City, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
This trip is perfectly timed, frankly. There was a Nor'easter earlier, well, today, and there won't be another for a couple of days. It's a roughly two days in the car from Massachusetts to eastern Tennessee at a fairly slow pace of about 59mph. The 819 mile drive will be paused at the 475 mile mark. Let's get on the road.
DAY ONE
There will be a remnant trough riding through the Mid-Atlantic, primarily introducing some showers from about Harrisburg southward. The rain won't be terribly heavy or widespread, but in the mountains, slick roads can be a little problematic. Most of the drive will be OK, but those last couple hours into Mount Olive in northern Virginia will be a bit showery.
DAY TWO
Warm weather will filter north as the rain ends. There could be some cloudy skies early in the day, but other than that, we will see close to 80 degrees by the time we arrive in Johnson City. Not too bad for early April.
Johnson City, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
Who is ready for some Smokey Mountain forecasting? Surely you are!
At 635PM, ET, Johnson City was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 44. The area was under the influence of a ridge riding band of cloud that was not tapping into quite as much moisture as the models predicted. Nevertheless, when encountering the Appalachians, those very same hills were able to generate the clouds that Johnson City is now experiencing.
A very active, sinusoidal wave pattern has taken root aloft with a well defined, fairly strong ridge rising into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days, with a warm front setting up well to the north of Tennessee. A warming, southerly flow will be on hand for the weekend.
Tomorrow - Increasingly sunny and warm, High 58, Low 35
Sunday - Warmer still, High 73, Low 33
TWC: Tomorrow - Windy. A few showers early with partly cloudy skies later in the day High 56, Low 37
Sunday - Plenty of sun. High 70, Low 36
AW: Tomorrow - A blend of sun and clouds with a shower; winds gusting past 40 mph High 55, Low 32
Sunday - Mostly cloudy and warmer High 69, Low 31
NWS: Tomorrow - Snow showers likely before 9am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 9am and 2pm. Partly sunny, High 57, Low 34
Sunday - Sunny High 67, Low 34
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny. Breezy High 56, Low 35
Sunday - Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 34
I really like the way the weather looks for Johnson City in terms of pending warm weather. Others appear not to be quite as optimistic. Current trends say the precip threat is overstated, however. We shall see.
Johnson City, Tennessee to Jackson, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
Sure, we are staying in-state for today's road trip, but Tennessee is a mighty long state to run the length of. We're covering about 415 miles in 6 and a half hours, so the drive is no picnic. We'll even be moving along at 63.8 miles an hour, so it's not like we'll bbe inching along. Let's go for about as long a trip as we can without even crossing state lines.
Really, thunderstorm activity across Tennessee tomorrow is going to be fairly sparse. It helps that the primary threat for the wet weather will be coming early in the day, so really heavy weather probably isn't likely. Still, the threat for shower activity will begin around Cookeville, maybe a little further west towards Nashville an hour or two into the drive. I think the really heavy weather will continue to develop behind us, that is to say, in eastern Tennessee, but don't be surprised if we see a few more showers through Nashville and on towards Jackson, but I would put the chances as "good" that we will be in the clear by the time we cross Kentucky Lake. Not terrible for a one day trip through Tennessee, I would say.
Catching the nasty weather
Posted by Ryan
Johnson City didn't see quite as much rain as we had called for, but between the two days of our forecast period they did receive over a half an inch of rain, which isn't peanuts. Like Oklahoma City, the previous city in our forecast repertoire, Johnson City managed to avoid the severe weather, however, which is of course good news, considering the destruction off to their southeast. Weatherbug, who wrote a novel for their forecast, had the top forecast in Johnson City.
Actuals: Friday - .17 inches of rain High 76, Low 46
Saturday - .42 inches of rain, some in thunderstorms, High 77, Low 57
Grade: B
Ames, Iowa to Johnson City, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
We're taking off for a 2 day journey from Ames to Johnson City, a journey that covers 931 miles. On the first day, we'll try to cover about 500 miles on that first day. It's not an easy, interstate heavy drive down to Johnson City, so we'll move slowly at about 62mph. We'll make it though, even though we will deal with quite a few showers and storms along the way.
DAY ONE
A system developing over the center of the country will be shifting into Iowa in the morning, bringing with it some heavy rain.for the beginning of our drive with some isolated thunderstorms embedded with it. Expect heavy rain from Ames to Des Moines as we travel south, then rain continuing, but not as intense as we head towards the Quad Cities. There will be redeveloping showers as the afternoon carries on, with heavy showers possible anytime through the afternoon. Don't be surprised if we have to pull off the road due to visibilities near Peoria or Champaign. It will still be raining, with some thunder, as we sneak into Indianapolis at the end of the first day.
DAY TWO
Don't be fooled by the weather at the beginning of the day. We'll see wet weather to our east and some clearing skies in the morning in Indianapolis, and we'll be able to enjoy some of it as we head south into Kentucky. The heavy rain will really pick up after we hit Louisville and start veering off towards Lexington then south to Johnson City. We'll stay just ahead of the crushing rain that will eventually sneak into Johnson City, but we'll definitely experience it. Have fun with THAT.
Johnson City, Tennessee
Posted by Ryan
We're headed into the Smokey Mountains and the eastern tip of Tennessee.
At 555PM, ET, Johnson City was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 68 degrees. Weak pressure gradient across the east belied the massive system developing over the High Plains, triggering the first real severe storm outbreak of the season. A warm front is extending into Tennessee is associated with this boundary, but is not developing much by way of precipitation. Even so, the presence of the boundary in Tennessee lends to power of the system in the Plains.
The cause of the system is a cut off upper level low over the western US. The subtropical jet over Mexico will lift north to intercept the low and transport it towards the Tennessee Valley. When the low pushes west it will tap into the Gulf and it's moisture. The resulting rain and thunderstorms, which will arrive in Johnson City late Friday into Saturday will bring about torrential rains, with 1-2 inches of rain possible to begin the weekend.
Tomorrow - Late rain, High 74, High 51
Saturday - Torrential rain expected in the evening, with thunderstorms possible, High 75, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow - Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 74, Low 50
Saturday - Thundershowers. High 75, Low 55
AW: Tomorrow - Variable cloudiness with a shower High 71, Low 47
Saturday - Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 74, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow - A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 48
Saturday - Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms High 74, Low 48
Saturday - Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some storms may be severe in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. High 75, Low 55
So that's it. Doom and gloom coming Saturday. Here you can keep an eye on it as it approaches off to the west.
