Tag Archives: Johnson City

Cold weather with a hot start

January 1st, we decided to take on the forecast for  Johnson City, in far eastern Tennessee. They were going to miss out on the bonanza being seen along the east coast, but they did get to enjoy the Arctic air on the back side. In fact, temperatures were in single digits both on Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s really unpleasant, especially in that part of the world! On the other hand, this forecast worked out quite well for Victoria-Weather and Weatherbug, who registered top class forecasts for the very beginning of the new year.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 28, Low 3
Wednesday – High 32, Low 8

Grade: A-C

Johnson City, Tennessee

We will start our 2018 in eastern Tennessee, nestled in between Kentucky, Virginia and North Carolina. Starting off the year, why don’t we touch as many states as possible?

At 1055 AM, ET, Johnson City was reporting a temperature of 16 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Even for January, this is a very cold start to the day, and the clouds in the area are actually keeping things a little bit warmer, as areas across the border in North Carolina are seeing single digits, even as the noon hour approaches.
Surface high pressure dominates the region underneath an upper level trough. As the next couple of days continue, that ridge of high pressure will only get stronger, and move to a greater position of dominance. The light westerlies that are halping to produce the clouds in the area this morning will taper off as a strong system develops off the Carolina coast. The northeasterly flow will help to temper some of the cold air, thanks to mechanical forcing, but the clear skies at night will allow for more brutally cold morning lows.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 26, Low 4
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 32, Low 8

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 31, Low 9
Wednesday – Cloudy skies. High 34, Low 13

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, but very cold; extreme cold can be dangerous in the morning High 27, Low 2
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and cold; extreme cold can be dangerous for outdoor activities in the morning High 34, Low 8

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 24, Low 3
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 29, Low 7

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 27, Low 7
Wednesday – Partly sunny, High 33, Low 9

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 24, Low 3
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 29, Low 7

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 28, Low 3
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 31, Low 14

The most recent run of the GFS was significantly warmer in Johnson City than previous iterations. The Weather Channel is hedging hard towards those warmer temperatures, but the rest f us, knowing that it is an off hour run, are suspicious. Here is a look at the satellite imagery, showing off a patch of clouds over eastern Tennessee, keeping the area liveable.

Winter comes to the Smokey Mountains

Some parts of eastern Tennessee had about 4 inches of snow out of the system that crippled the southeast. Our forecast site, Johnson City, had only 2.5 inches, which was still more than expected. Even more surprising was how low the temperature dropped. The warmest forecast low was 10 degrees by The Weather Channel, which was 4 degrees cooler than any temperature Johnson City saw last year. Instead, the temperature plummeted all the way to -2, which, to my surprise, was not a record for the city. Weatherbug had the top forecast in this unusually wintry environment.
Actuals: Tuesday – 2.5 inches of snow, High 19, Low 13
Wednesday – High 20, Low -2

Grade: C

Johnson City, Tennessee

Not 4 days ago, we were forecasting just down the road in Knoxville. Is the weather any better this week?

At 1155AM, ET, Johnson City was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A strong upper level trough wrought by the Polar Vortex has dived deep into the central and eastern parts of the country, but the coldest air has not yet come to Johnson City.
An upper level cold front was well demarcated by a band of clouds from eastern Kentucky to the Ozarks. Meanwhile, a weal low at the mouth of the Mississippi was bringing some shower activity to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the boundary presses south, it will begin to interact with the low, causing rain and thunderstorms to blossom across the southeastern United States. It doesn’t appear as though much moisture will work north to Johnson City. Enough will spill over to bring some clouds and maybe a stray flurry, with the real impact being felt along and east of the Appalachians. What that cloudy activity will bring is a delay to the cold weather. It will still be awfully cold, but the densest of the cold air will sink into Johnson City after the upper cold front sweeps through town overnight into Wednesday morning. The coldest temperatures will likely be felt overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but tonight and tomorrow night will be dangerously cold as well.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few flurries. Cold, High 23, Low 13
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, very cold in the morning, High 25, Low 9

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Snow Showers High 27, Low 10
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy High 27, Low 10

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very cold High 22, Low 11
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and cold; extreme cold can be dangerous for outdoor activities in the morning High 25, Low 8

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cold, High 20, Low 10
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 23, Low 3

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Colder High 18, Low 10
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 22, Low 3

Looking awful chilly for eastern Tennessee, where temperatures don’t often dip this low. Here on satellite, you can see both the upper level boundary and the surface low I referenced in the forecast.
Johnson City

Active Weekend

A slow-moving frontal system over the Eastern US was expected to keep the showers and thunderstorms around Johnson City active, and didn’t disappoint. Johnson City saw showers and thunderstorms both days, but luckily was able to escape any major deluge from either of them. The NWS took home the top spot with some excellent temperature forecasting.

Friday: 0.06″ of rain in a mid-afternoon thunderstorm. High 77, Low 50.
Saturday: 0.10″ of rain in morning rain shower, afternoon thunderstorm. High 71, Low 55.
Forecast Grade: A

Johnson City, Tennessee to Chico, California

Last night, as you may have noted, I lost control of the Victoria-Weather/Rhino and Compass Twitter account. The last tweet that was sent out was the forecast for Johnson City. Hopefully this road trip forecast doesn’t run afoul of my attempts to get back onto Twitter. The trip will cover 2591.9 miles over 5 days. The fifth day will be shorter, and the first days will average about 535 miles a day, thanks to an average speed of 66.9mph. Let’s see where the road takes us #FreeRhino.

DAY ONE
Johnson City
A stalled boundary without much motivation to continue advancing eastward will plague the early portion of our travels. A lot of the moisture in eastern Tennessee will be expressed as mountain clouds and fog, but there might be a little bit of drizzle until we reach Cookeville. The drive through Nashville and most of the trip through Kentucky will be dry, but a reinforcing trough will move into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. There will be a chance for more chilly rain as we reach Paducah and make our way into southern Illinois. It won’t be much, but we will see an uptick in wind regardless as we stop for the night in Nashville, Illinois, which is about 20 miles west of Mount Vernon.

DAY TWO
Sunday won’t be quite as drizzly as Saturday had been. In fact, the only real chance for precipitation will come with some ridge riding showers around Kansas City but really, the only impact we will see from the leading edge of this ridge is some clouds in KC. Before we get to Kansas City, it will be awfully cool for mid-May. As we head into Nebraska, we might finally see some seasonally appropriate conditions. The day will end in Waco, Nebraska, which is near York. These towns we are stopping at are all in the wrong state, aren’t they?

DAY THREE
Our trip Monday will be the nicest to date. So long as you can tolerate the emptiness of Nebraska and Wyoming, we shouldn’t have many problems. Late in the day, likely not until after about 5 or 6pm, some isolated showers may begin to bubble up over the Colorado and Wyoming Rocky Mountains. I wouldn’t count on it, though, and our day should end peacefully in Fort Steele, Wyoming which is east of Rawlins.

DAY FOUR
Heading out for the day on Tuesday we will find that the atmosphere has been stabilized, and our drive will be sunny and warm through the remainder of Wyoming, passage through Utah, and eventually our stop in Elko, Nevada for the final stop before we finish this drive off.

DAY FIVE
We will finish off our drive without a problem. In fact, the closest thing we will have to an issue will be if our vehicle, unable to cope with the long miles we have been putting on it, struggles to ascend and descend through Donner Pass. Hot, sunny weather will be waiting for us in Chico.
Chico

Johnson City, Tennessee

Johnson City, Kingsport, and Bristol. All of these towns dot the eastern corner of Tennessee.

At 415ET, Johnson City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and drizzle. A rogue thunderstorm had developed north of Kingsport and was drifting east-southeast towards Johnson City. As has been the case throughout this spring a deep upper level trough was moving out of the central Rockies and was greatly influencing the overall airflow of the country. A southerly flow across eastern Tennessee was responsible for warm temperatures and the thunderstorm off to the northwest of Johnson City.
The upper level trough will have enough energy to shift east quickly and by tomorrow morning, the leading edge of precipitation brought about by a surface cold front will reach the Tri-Cities by tomorrow morning. The front itself will stall over western Tennessee through most of the day tomorrow, but warm, juicy air will lead to a day full of showers and thunderstorms. A reinforcing shot of cold air as the trough deepens will force the boundary to shift a bit further east on Saturday. More persistent and often times torrential rain will move into the area for Saturday with little sign of breaking until Sunday morning.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 78, Low 52
Saturday – Rain likely, with a few embedded storms. Stronger wind, High 74 Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – PM T-Storms High 76 Low 56
Saturday – Scattered T-Storms High 69, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 79, Low 50
Saturday – Rather cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 72, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Increasing clouds, High 77, Low 52
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms. High 72, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 78 Low 54
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 73, Low 57

It’s going to be close, seeing whether or not the low temperature on Saturday will come at midnight or not. It depends on when that heavy rain can finally be wrapped up. Here is the radar, showing that little batch of rain moving through town.
Johnson City

Here comes Lee in Tennessee

Some diurnally, topographically induced thunderstorms rumbled in Johnson City on Saturday, while an encroaching front kicked up even more activity on Sunday. Now, the front has stalled and is drawing all of Lee’s remnants north into the central Appalachians, inundating the town. This certainly has been a heck of a holiday weekend, hasn’t it been, Tri-Cities? The Weather Channel and Weatherbug had the same forecast in town, and as a result ended up with the same, winning score.
Actuals: Saturday – Thunderstorms reported, precip not measured, High 96, Low 64
Sunday – .06inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 89, Low 65

Grade: B

Johnson City, Tennessee

It’s a beautiful day today in Johnson City. Will that weather continue?

At 1055AM, ET, Johnson City was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with sunny skies. Johnson City found itself on the hot side of a warm front that was attached to the first fall like system of the year, moving through the upper Midwest, and temperatures today were expected to be very warm.
A slow moving tropical depression in the Gulf, mentioned yesterday, will effectively cut off any moisture that attempts to navigate it’s way into the Johnson City area, and conditions will be less humid than they have been. Towards the tail end of the period, late in the day Sunday, the cold front moving through the Great Lakes now will entrain some of the moisture from the Tropical Storm, much like what happened to Irene in southern New England a couple of weeks ago, and the threat for rain will arrive in town late on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 93, Low 62
Sunday – Increasing clouds, with rain and storms late, High 85, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, Low 67
Sunday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 88, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 61
Sunday – More clouds than sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 88, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, High 93, Low 64
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, Low 64
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 86, Low 67

I like lower low temperatures for the area… With dewpoints cooling off, I don’t think they will have much keeping them from falling off overnight. Here is a pretty quiet satellite for the southeast.

Quite the Warmup

Most of the competition had Johnson City warming up a significant amount on Sunday after being caught in clouds and a couple light showers for Saturday. VW, however, had the biggest warmup out of anybody, which propelled us to victory yet again, despite our gamble of keeping the area try on Saturday. Darn morning showers.

Saturday: 0.02 in early morning rain showers. High 59, Low 36.
Sunday: Much warmer. High 74, Low 31.
Forecast Grade: B