Tag Archives: Fort Walton Beach

Finding a groove

Fort Walton Beach started to settle into their spring time groove through the middle of this week. The first step of this groove is morning fog, thanks to dew points in the mid 60s, which they saw in Fort Walton Beach in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Then, of course, there is the consistent temperature trend, another hallmark of the spring in Florida, and a feature of the last two days. If I’m being honest, this should have been an easy forecast for everyone, but there weren’t any “A” Grades. Victoria-Weather nearly identified the groove, and claimed victory by the sea.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 60
Thursday – High 78, Low  58

Grade: B-C

Fort Walton Beach, Florida

Let’s take a look at the Florida Panhandle tonight. Most of the country will be experiencing warmer weather this week, but if you were in Fort Walton Beach, you would have that kind of weather all the time.

At 958PM, CT, Fort Walton Beach was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were very near the temperature, and in the areas around Choctawhatchee Bay, that usually means overnight fog, and that seems like a good bet tonight along the Gulf Coast.
A broad area of high pressure is expected to emerge across the eastern third of the US through the end of the week. In the short term, the synoptic scale activity will remain in eastern Canada, with the Florida Panhandle remaining under the influence of a languid pool of Gulf moisture and lazy afternoon sunshine.
Tomorrow – Morning fog, then sunny, High 78,Low 62
Thursday – Mostly sunny, with a bit of early haze, High 79, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 80, Low 62
Thursday – Mainly sunny. High 80, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine HIgh 78, Low 63
Thursday – Partly sunny and nice High 79, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny,High 76, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny, High 78, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 76, Low 62
Thursday – Sunny, High 77, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 63
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until evening. High 79, Low 64
Thursday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 83, Low 62

Here is a look at the satellite imagery for the southeast. There is a bit of moisture tied to a wave moving through the eastern Great Lakes moving through Alabama, but nothing threatening Fort Walton Beach.

Fort Walton Beach, Florida to Portland, Oregon

After a couple of short, single day trips, we’re headed off for a 5 day trip from the southeast to the northwest. It doesn’t get much longer than this. It does, but not much. The drive will cover 2741 miles, which we will cover at a pace of 68.5mph, and will evenly distribute 548 miles on each of the 5 days.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
fort-walton-beach
With troughing across the east coast and an area of low pressure over the northern Plains, there is a pocket of dry air between those regions. We’ll see sunny skies with above average temperatures from Fort Walton Beach all the way to Webbers Falls, Oklahoma, where we will stop for the night.

DAY TWO (Friday)
Low pressure will deepen rapidly in the Colorado Plains, with southerly flow producing hot, humid air over the central Plains. While driving in our air conditioned vehicle, this won’t mean a whole lot, so what actually is relevant to our road tripping is the continued clear skies through Oklahoma and much if Kansas. We’re going to pull in to Brewster, Kansas to polish off our Tuesday.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
Low pressure will shift north towards the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies. There will be some weak, morning thunderstorms as we leave Brewster in western Kansas, but we will be in the stable cold sector by the time we hit the Colorado line. We’ll make it to Laramie without any problems, but on the back end of the low, temperatures might be cool enough for some mountain snows as we head west through southern Wyoming. Be careful in the Passes! We’ll stop for the night in Purple Sage, Wyoming, near Rock Springs.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
By Sunday, we will be well west of any action, embedded within high pressure over the Rockies. We’ll make it through northern Utah, southern Idaho and right up to the Oregon border in Huntington, on the Oregon side of the Snake River.

DAY FIVE (Monday)
There is going to be another heat wave out west. We’re headed to Portland in the face of another bout of late season warmth. It won’t be anything like we would expect in the Pacific Northwest. Expect sunny skies, and not even a hint of rain.
portland-or

Lexington, Kentucky to Fort Walton Beach, Florida

You know, Kentucky and Florida are both colleges in the same athletic conference, the SEC, so perhaps it should be no surprise that Lexington and Fort Walton Beach are a mere 10hours apart. This one day, 655 mile trip will be accomplished at a rate of almost 65mph. It looks like a fairly nice drive, so let’s get to it!

Lexington
There is a weak area of low pressure off the Carolina coast tonight, and it will remain there tomorrow. It isn’t being monitored by the NHC or anything like that, so for our purposes, all we need to worry about is the fact that it is helping direct dry air into the Tennessee Valley. There is a developing area of low pressure in the central Plains as well, and our entire route will be in a stasis between the two features. What does all this mean? We’re in for a pretty nice drive to the Panhandle of Florida.
fort-walton-beach

The conditions at Hurlbut Field

This is the verification for Fort Walton Beach. Their airport is Hurlbut Field, and I find that amusing. There was rain on Wednesday, which detracted from everyone’s forecast. That said, The Weather Service clearly separated themselves from the rest of the pack and netted the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – Trace of rain, High 79, Low 60
Thursday – .02 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 78, Low 64

Grade: B

Fort Walton Beach, Florida

Hey, another day in Florida! If this was real life, I would really appreciate that. You know, multiple days in Florida.

At 755PM, ET, Fort Walton Beach was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature 67 degrees and light northerly wind behind a weak cold front. An upper level trough with only a little bit of flow through it was being reflected by a scouring line behind a sheath of clouds over the southeastern United States that was keeping the Florida Panhandle a shade cooler than the rest of the state.
A stronger jet through the northern US is going to be the driving force for the development of a strong area of low pressure moving through the Upper Midwest. This system will bring with it the energy needed to invigorate the upper trough along the Mississippi Valley, and a cold front will become active. Initially this will work to clear Fort Walton Beach out tomorrow, but the advance of the system will lead to the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong, but the primary severe threat will be inland.
Tomorrow – Clearing, High 81, Low 50
Thursday – Clouds and a thunderstorm in the afternoon, High 82, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 80, Low 56
Thursday – Scattered T-Storms High 82, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 81, Low 56
Thursday – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 81, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 60
Thursday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 81, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 80, Low 55
Thursday – -Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 64

Things, they will be a changin’ this week across the country. The difference will be a lot more subtle in Florida. You can see the scouring line that I mentioned on the west side of that cloud sheath. Keep an eye on that clearing area for storms tomorrow!

Combo verification!

Because I am a delinquent, I didn’t remember to do a verification for Reading, so I am lumping that in with the Fort Walton Beach verification. Could you think of two more similar towns? Both tended towards the quiet. Reading allowed for some solid end of week forecasting, and the Weather Service took full advantage of that allowance, picking up the top forecast there.
Actuals: Thursday, High 61, Low 33
Friday, High 54, Low 39

Grade: A

In Fort Walton Beach, the forecasting was a little bit less successful. The gusty northerly winds tapered off, but the wind and clear skies were both products of air from the north. That meant chilly nights. Both Friday and Saturday saw morning lows of 42, which didn’t bode well for anyone’s forecast. The chilly day Friday, that didn’t get warmer than 62 didn’t help either. Accuweather somehow had the best numbers in the Florida Panhandle
Actuals: Friday, High 62, Low 42
Saturday – High 70, Low 42

Grade: B

Fort Walton Beach, Florida

How awesome does Florida sound right now, Denver? Off we go.

At 1202PM, ET, Fort Walton Beach was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A well defined cold front was moving through southern Alabama, and a band of rain showers extended from Demopolis, Alabama to Pascagoula, Mississippi and was headed east. The southerly flow ahead of the front and the clouds associated with that flow has acted as a foil for thunderstorm development along the immediate coast, and there was a chance that even as the boundary moves through town, Fort Walton Beach stays dry today.
Behind the front, a broad ridge is expected to take hold, and keep most of the east dry. Immediately behind the front, winds could be gusty for a brief moment, but that should be the only problem seen in the area for the remainder of the week. Expect sunny skies to take us through the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny, High 71, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 68, Low 42
Saturday – A few clouds High 73, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and not as warm High 67, Low 42
Saturday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 71, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 67, Low 49
Saturday – Sunny, High 71, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 66, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny High 71, Low 44

Highs around 70? Sun? Sounds like heaven. First, Fort Walton Beach has to deal with this little front rolling through town.

Not exactly the Sunshine State

Fort Walton Beach is technically in the Sunshine State, but it’s position in the Panhandle, not far from Alabama perhaps leads to some confusion. Tuesday was a cloudy mess, with rain falling late in the evening, adding up to more than a quarter inch, which was a bit heavier than anyone really saw coming. Temperatures, despite the rain, responded well to what we were forecasting (it only rained really for a half an hour). The Weather Channel had the top forecast, which didn’t end up too badly.
Actuals: Tuesday – .36 inches of rain, High 64, Low 46
Wednesday – High 60, Low 44

Grade: B

Fort Walton Beach, Florida

While this might seem like a good time for a trip to Florida, but, well, right now it doesn’t look so good.

AT 855PM, ET, Fort Walton Beach was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 47 degrees, however just across Choctawhatchee Bay and even just up the road at Eglin Air Force Base, low clouds and fug had already rolled in for the evening. There was a sharp dividing line between this area of dense clouds and a clear spot surrounding Mobile Bay, and the dividing line was right through Fort Walton Beach.
A slowly developing shortwaved system was centered off the coast of Jacksonville and was helping to wrap in the necessary moisture for the low conditions despite the off shore flow. A broader system over the center of the country is developing a return flow over the central Gulf, creating low conditions there as well. As the low to the east shifts to the north, the broader low in the Plains will dangle a trough through the Florida Panhandle late tomorrow evening. Precipitation will be light, but the primary result of this boundary’s passage will be a clearing in the fog and ceilings for Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance for showers late, High 66, Low 43
Wednesday – Clearing and sunny, High 58, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a few showers. High 64, Low 46
Wednesday – Times of sun and clouds. High 59, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a passing shower in the afternoon High 66, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunshine and patchy clouds High 58, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny (rain before midnight) High 65, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny High 58, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain showers through the day. High 65, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny, High 58, Low 58, Low 40

Since I started that forecast, I took a look, and the low clouds have now rolled into Fort Walton Beach. Here is a cool satellite image called a “Day/night visible satellite”. This time of night, it still shoes the sharp cloud contrast in the area.